Typhoon Tip

Not to be a semantic noog but ... that 'switch,' in that context you use ...sort of implies the opposite of 'winter won't die' ?? I don't see this as diametrical to that - which would mean 70 to 80 and summery ... which we have had March's and April obscenely warm like that ... mainly sprinkled about the statistics since the year 2000. On that .. prior to 2000, I personally NEVER saw that happen. I have, since 2000, experienced three springs that held warm anomalies startlingly high at all times, and more than a handful that at least had an intra-seasonal run in with exotic heat for so early in the season. Not sure what's up with the climate that's not changing Being dyck there a little ... But you get my meaning - Anyway, this spring seems ... pretty darn average frankly. Oh, it'll be above average to some degree, ... perhaps atoning for the CC footprint. But not outlandish like those mentioned above ( save that one warm period a month ago maybe ... )... By and large, not terrible misery misted, and not eerily hot either. We still have April to go... and frankly May is not guarantee around our region of the world either. But just sayin' so far -

Little uneasy in saying this ... buuuut, the latter mid and extended range may get forced by the sun to be less miserable. This typically happens in spring. If a given scenario is coming along without necessarily strong enough anomalous forcing, the mid and extended dour looks will tend to end up not as bad once said range is in short. 2005 May? April 1987 ? ... those are examples where said forcing WAS substantively powerful enough to block the sun so to speak... And the S.A.D. putrescence was so dour as to challenge the very endurance of man for having achieved that, too - But that 00z Euro operational is coughing up hair balls in that look... Strikes me as more residual and I bet the model smooths some of that out as it near/future guidance. That weird neg tilted trough at D8.5-10 that only has 2 contours around it...probably doesn't really have enough actual mechanical energy to dictate the surface pressure pattern from Bermuda to Chicago when push comes to shove. This week did that ? You man recall ... 7 day ago, the Euro had us in a rhea wheel of real 38 F misty shits .. with light rain and wet snow ( non sticking variety ) for days... As this time arrived, gradually aspects designed less putrid. Now look what this turned into. The vortex become gradually less obtrusive and stalled, weaker really ... and tomorrow thru Friday could be 64 to 72 with high April sun by day, though an open emerald blue sky. You'll look down the street and see the air shimmering and with light wind. These could be candidate top 10 qualifier afternoons. Meanwhile the nights may even stay above freezing - kind of reminds me of those nape days last week, only 15 milder at night. Those were nuts! We had one day here ... 19.4 was the low at 6:35 a.m., and it was 64 average among the home-stations within a mile or two of town at 4 pm. Sun set, 41 immediately.. ... as an aside, we are limping into green up here in the interior ( at least in Nashoba 'nighttime cold hell' Valley). I 'm sure down along the S-SE Coastal Plains you're further along. Really the shrubbery buds are sluggishly opening, lawns and fields are sort of greener. However, I am noticing the 200 year old maple, corner to my property, it's buds are starting to swell just a little. I suspect all these various prominences will accelerate(d) their intentions of life by week's end. I have noticed over the years - really accelerating green-up is more about keeping the nights above freezing.

Oh... heh Pittsburg NH

Heh...makes me nervous that there are observations in various dimensions of the physical geography, at global and local scales, that were not supposed to be "real"ized until much later - as in 2070 ...etc. I don't recall what climate papers/ .. models, and/or consortium of scientist out among the greater ambit for which to cite for the general users of this social-media ...no, but, recall reading that turn of phrase in numerous areas from Coral Bleaching, to ice loss ...and various other observational metrics in between. So, tfwiw I suppose... but when you/we say "unrealistic," ( and I agree in principle that higher end cataclysms may be as unlikely as the lower end, just the same... ) ..the problem is in the middle sufffix: "real" Since there are physical observations that are beating the climate models to the punch ( so to speak ..), I am losing confidence in our notions/judgements of what is and is not realistic vs merely plausible.

yeees and no - Gonna go ahead and partially disagree here with all do respect - 'never' is a long time. Lol, I give you the nod for hyperbole tho. - it's a matter of slowly diminishing returns... IF one means one blizzard every 1/2 ... then 1, ...then 2... then 10 ... 60 years, by the turn of the next century ( or whatever it turns out to be) because of CC ... okay, they've technically 'never stopped' But in practical terms: the frequencies will rarefy.

I dunno... maybe - That was a snark rip from a CNN 'Project Planet' headline, which as an org ...they shimmer artfully in turning screws with shock and awe headline tactics so it says what it says - I would add, though, that comparing Japan's legacy to the U.S. is like comparing an 1854 Petrus, to grapes still on the vine so they might - Man, if so...1200 years is like the typical seam -length on an actual geological Epoch turn ... so that would be an impressive record to actually break.

Japan just recorded its earliest cherry blossom bloom in 1,200 years. 12. hundred. years. - gee ...wonder why

That Euro is on 3 consecutive days of contiguous improvement in the complexion of the sensible weather from Wed onwards... Now, right out to the end of the run. 3 days ago, we were good for a Wednesday nape day, with a so-so on Thursday...Then 2 days ago, we were good for both Wed and Thur being solid napers ...with hints of not being quite as bad in the general synoptsis for the weekend. In the last 24 hours -worth of cycles the model has morphed down right balmy, for days. The GFS ?? man - if I were to anthropomorphize that model out of frustration alone, it would be petty on-purpose finding needling reasons to never admit summer is still coming. What an asshole! lol. But the Euro has us in a COL column from D 3 to to 10. We are the fortunate roulette spinners of ending up under the ridge node that separates the troughs of a seasonal/climate Omega block. Spring omega blocks are classic across N/A/ April phenomenon. The set up features a pin-wheel - ridge - pin-wheel configuration from west to east. If your region ends up in one of the pinwheels... you're f'ed. If you are lucky and end up under the narrow ridge the separates the two - such that the Euro is attempting to hold our region under for week straight ( hmm...), the rich get richer. It's interesting how we've transformed from a nasty cold stormy look that was of course .1 F too mild to allow snow ( so, 'hell' for short), into a relative utopia for the Mid Atlantic to Maine axis like this. Weird... It's gotta be too good to be true. Meanwhile, the GEF teleconnectors are selling 72.4" of new snow for NYC to PWM ...solidifying that particular modeling technology as the crowning achievement in American math - f! I dunno...maybe we'll just verify a soothingly compromised 13 days of 38 F mist instead. Not sure which way to go. The Euro solution simply cannot happen in a GEFs telecon layout ... one of these two philosophies is going perform better -

HC expanding 'CC' f-up winter ... get used to it ... it's the rest of our lives, ultimately en route to a destination of no winter as far N as Maine given enough decades -

You didn't ask me ...and I am aware, sometimes I come off as 'philosophically heavy handed' and perhaps even a tad hard to follow for how I choose to deliver lines of dialect ... ( ha, like that right there <--) But, I think a lot of the PTSD you describe is really more like a 'rattling of design' What I mean by that is..we have been, for multiple, multiple generations at this point, conditioned ( becomes culturally institutional in nature ) to see our reality as assumptions - this is a bit different than "entitlement" - but shares kinship with that definition to some degree. It's simply that we have been born and socialized into an interesting relativity of realism ( if you will...); basically, we don't realize how much of our daily existence is convenience - we've long been too far separated from any circumstance to remind, and culture has sans any necessity to do so. I remember musing in the early days of this thing ... just how relative it all is, by posing a circumstance to elucidate the point . Consider the average civilian from the year 1721 - picture that man or woman, waking, drinking, eating, raising kids, doing what it takes, ... living in that mise se science of various travails and ambient threats to their well-being, and then ... compare that to the canned ravioli, immunized, iPhone addicted ...overly stimulate walking belief of orgasms on tap asshole that knows no other sense of reality ...because they were born in raised, drowned in convenience their whole way? To this latter bloke, what they have gone through rattles there reality to the core; to the man or woman from 1721 ... ? This is/was as common to their notions of what life and times 'should be' as drinking from the well. I just find the juxtaposition interesting - ...the generational cultural relativism' of it. Upon reflecting in that ...after awhile, one may start to sense how that PTSD aspect is really no more than shattering one's illusions that were provided withing the fragility of an Industrial bubble ...that most are not even aware exists in the first place by virtue of the fact that they simply have known no other reality. And whether we are aware of it or not ...? All this biologically un-evolutionarily sound mask wearing, and social distancing stuff...it's all a conceit of control within that bubble - we are, whether we are aware or not, scrambling to patch the holes in the bubble.

I don't think it's so far fetched... If I had this layout of telecon on Feb 2nd or even March 2nd for that matter I'd have a thread already going for 'prelim risk assessment' That's a monster signal 10 to 16th ... I've mentioned it before but - I don't think April is quite the same beast with the normalization of the sun - in fact, I can sense that already ...as this Monday and Tuesday is more than less coming into shorter range focus as not quite the same shit smear as it stunk like three days ago in the runs... When I look over the other bigger April and May events in history, there was rifle shot roulette timing ...where the cold plume injected right on the cyclogen to maximize - and I think it needs that to succeed at this time of year, or it goes cat-paws really fast - talking about big lows with WAA mechanics. A snow shower in early May is a different phenomenon altogether. I dunno - monster signal ...maybe at the wrong time of year I'd love to see that spread in DJF tho - man.

It's called labile hypertension ... those that run a bit high, run a bit hot - lol... It is 44 average around the home stations within a mile or two of mi casa... But the wind is about as close to legit nill as is molecularly possible - ... flags motionless... under about the purest clearest blue imaginable. April sun cannot be denied! Out putsing around the yard ,... more so assessing and surveying what it'll need for now. But in a sweatshirt and some halfhearted commitment to picking up debris, some raking, ...bit of clipper detailing here and there, this weather it really defines and underscores the "naperil" appeal - classic faux warm day. Does not feel that chilly at all. The 12z GFS operational run is - quite ironically - putting up close to top 10 days both Wed and Thu now... Thicknesses (500 mb) surpassing 540 dm by a goodle number, with by then the equivalent of September 4th sun ( for perspective), and 850s creeping to +5 ... and light wind, and low ceiling sigma level RH ...etc..etc... should by busting MOS and tickling 70 again with limited flag wobbling spring fever as wildly more contagious pandemic in the region than this recent dystopian cinema ever was.. .LOL

At ~ 58 million full vaccination count as of this morning, ... or ~ 17.5% of the U.S. population, I am curious at what percentage ranges ( be it 30, 50 ...70 ) do we see statistical curves break/respond? The first curve I'd like to see break toward less is the persistent 60 to 70K new cases per day. I check every evening while in my own doomscrolling daily dosing .. That number doesn't seem to modulate up or down by much. We witnessed the intrawinter wave that was modeled, and along with that, thank god for CNN's "ethical" cause, the fear that pumped another few billion into their dystopian rage. But that wave came and went; the new cases per diem crashed. Now in the last 20 days..it appears to not really be declining. At 58 to 72 K per day, it seems to just be bouncing around in that range. I'd like to know at what full vax count do we see it actually slope negative - as in like all the sudden, 50K ... then 40K ...30K ...without returning, across that break point.. That might be an indication that this herd thing is getting close. This is not going as fast as it was touted to go, a month ago. I remember a lot Biden optimism then that we'd have half the population vax'ed by the end of April or mid May, and in projecting the last 2 weeks of percentages, ...I think that falls short of 50% by a significant margin. Plus, among the various texting groups I belong to, there is a way around preferential restriction due to dose logistics. Namely, that toward the end of days ... doses of the vaccine have to be thrown out if unused. Seems there is sloppy management of supply and demand connection there .. but be that as it may, if one shows up at the end of shift rotation and asks if there were any 'no shows,' or left overs..etc., they are quietly administered and shown the door - thanks for helping us not waste vaccine - and they're out. Lol, meanwhile I'm sure there are those rocking in wait to get theirs. I've made it the last year without getting this thing, and so ... seems 'reasonable' that relative to whatever I am doing, so long as I don't deviate much I should make it .. - it is likely I can make it the next two weeks... at which point for Mass it opens up to general population above 16.. That all said, I'm am wondering if that is the same or close across most states - those dates? Because the bell curve of population mass is in fact inside that 16 to 60 age range, so when that time comes, we may see an acceleration of the vax rates.

yup ... low levels cold is offsetting an april sun's ability to diurnal destabilize - that s pretty damn impressive -...although we do now have strata streets here -

Lol... so long as 'ending' means for the World - cuz... you or me or J-zee could be immunized for f'n Rabies ...doesn't matter. Unless the society scope and scale rejoins to f'n in the streets - ... we're still nightmaring this masked distancing .... shut in life style, paranoid as "enabled" germaphobes in a bullshit delusion that we can actually live in a veritable cesspool (Earth's biome ) ...detached from that same cesspool. Idiocracy is what happens when human conceit gets in the way of reality - But it's worth pointing out because... there's already attempts by big media to social engineer this as never ending. We could have 96 % population density immunization against the C-19 and all variants, and plied fear and paranoia will still have us 'sheeple' with imposed upon liberties -

you know it's cold when it can't even self-destruct

Ah yes... classic April. There's still a monster signal for the 10th through the 15th of the month ...but the race is on. Does celestial mechanics ( ...the Earth going around the sun and shit...) save us by insolation ( sun's radiation ) destroying the atmospheric signal by thermal washing?? I say it will... Here's why - because everyone asked of course... One thing I am noticing in looking up 1987 and 1977 and 1996 ..and 1997 ... 1982, 1984 ...etc...is that these were "timing" created, almost all of them. Feature had to time right, synoptic in scale, to get them to happen. That by nature of critical window ...cannot really be resolved by even present day state-of-the-art in numerical guidance technology. Such that D12 signal that requires lower tolerance timing of major players, cannot be accurately modeled - not without a lot of luck! The cold plume has to sever from mid riff Canadian latitudes and get ingested into the 850-700 mb layer framework in most cases, in a critical 12 hour lead into those bigger spring events of lore, and if it is outside that 12 hours they lose that cold edge... Anyway, I think we have a big signal for what everyone wants, 'a massive 12" blue bomb snow,' ... which is a certainly a good canvas, but that secondary need to better timing is a blind dicier roll as to whether it will be occur or not. It's interesting... You need both - But the problem is that out of all probabilities, the one with the certitude is that the sun is getting stronger and the thermal scrubbing of the atmosphere IS happening...and it gets more so in time. SO, until such time as any perfectly timed severed cold plume can get entangled into a system comes into short range as a real offset potential... gotta go ahead and assume this is apropos for how this season has gone anyway: great signal, that is equally greatly lost.

I wonder if any one or source has put together a 'SBCAPE and CAPE climate' ... like, graphically showing it bulge and recede through the calendar year. I can visualize it as growing from late Feb... S. TX and FL at first, expanding edging into the Gulf states early March... etc. By April 1st ...the northern edge of say the 500J/KG has crept N to about the Missouri Boot-heel ...over to Tennessee say... with the regions south gradated to deeper purple tones for every 200J/KG increasing... such that by May 1...it's down right passionate around the coastal Bend of TX ... the Florida peninsula ... over to Baton Rouge and NORA.. where a sunny fair day just normally ambiently 2500. The 500 by then is up to central MN to Lowe MI and PA... ( spit ballin') Mind you, that is not a product telling us what warm sector intrusion J/KG values are ...just the daily average. Such that getting a 500 to MI - NY - MA ... is actually an indication that there are 1000 J/KG days sprinkled in...etc...etc... Then, in August the perennial continental drying and vegetation sedation begins ...and the colorization starts to recede S... such that by October ...it is almost gone...except there is a weird kind of secondary autumn tornado/severe weather curve that does elevate before the season truly does flat line in November - perhaps in that two to three week period ..the CAPE may flash slight polarward by some minor percentage. Mind you...I am imagining that - LOL. I mean it seems pretty easy - I'm sure something like that exists already. Pure mean CAPE and SBCAPE as a longer termed statistical average relative to date. But then again...CAPE is single parametric couched in with other collateral dependencies, in order to really mean much... that's why over eastern OK ...I've seen CAPE nearing 7000 J/KG ..yet, CIN so extreme the day is open blue sky there. It may not bare as much importance as a stand-alone metric like that so .. perhaps of more importance to the interest of excruciating nerds with borderline Asperger social dimming ...hahaha

The surface evolution in some of these recent runs is starting to do that spring normalization thing ...where it looks way less ominous compared to the mid levels

Gosh ... I thought for sure we’d get at least a flurry here in Ayer. Huh. Nadda Maybe that day of squalls really was the last sentence

I think there's a trend here to improve away from a bottom barrel pattern though - Probably we've been over-selling the 'glumness' of it - I know I have... heh. I don't trust April and hate and despise it, too - so somewhere in there might slip objectivity from time to time. But, I was looking that 300, 500 and 700 mb RH fields in the GFS and frankly, it's debatable whether that vortex - in that guidance 12z - even impacts much. This Euro is weird ...it's trying to plume a heat anomaly into the Lakes while we contend with rotting polar wound air with that thing ..but it's also attempting/hinting narrow escapes. We'll see.. It won't warm... it's a matter of how shitty and hopefully less.

Yeah ...and most just sit on that transfer of wealth while the vitality of the whole system teeters ...and the countless untold stories of suffering at per capita level because the vaster majority have no personal advocates - But everyone knows, including those cha-chinging, that they are out there ... and, the suffering and systemic econcomic collapse is out there ...while they reap and keep it quiet. It's my point, .... capitalism without consciousness ...

It's the broom stick and the 11 year old vs the paranoid yellow jacket nests among ... LOL In a pure arithmetic sense of it, as in "math" removes any human conception, conceit and/or designed variance therein ... those orgs that defaulted as robber barons for dumb luck being in the right place at the right time .... the ZOOM social media platforms, the Mask makers. Hygiene this... and BIG MEDIA ( holy shit on the latter!), including those on your list there, all of them, they should have their records pulled. Yeah capitalism is all good, but extraordinary circumstances should really count - not when it means the vitality of the same system that operates that capitalism. You can reap the system and give nothing back - that is called what a class? 'a PARAsite' In an ideal fantasy of ethical framework, some sort of "eminent economic domain" wealth reclamation Act type of one time huge % tax levied. Those funds are in turn distributed to fund the "stimulus" effort - everything stays even. Not rolling up the deficit to incomprehensibly large numbers, so vast as to ultimately become insolvent. The only way out of which is one of two means- Write off - in which case the value of the U.S. dollar pretty much isn't worth the poop it can be used to wipe WAR .... the ultimate paranoia is that this was all a 10 year plan to get the machinery of the Industrial Military Complex greased-up and primed. I mean, CNN has made billions in media- fear mongering ....those c-cks*ers should finance the entire research. Obviously, none of that can happen in reality.

Lol, uh.. not to diminish the significance of that stunning achievement on your part ... but, any feline brain-pan probably suspected the same at this point - considering that regardless of ENSO this, or PDO/AMO that, or ZYZYGY and Taro cards being played, ... this region of the world appears geophysically designated bum-run palace from late March until early July for 10 years running. Gets a bit hard not to expect Stockholm's the new home

K, everyone - Moneypitmike is officially on suicide watch ... considering we are all of 3 hours into the 3 week long shits pattern and he's already sounding off - can you imagine the red-eyed, straight-jacket chair rocketing apoplexy when it's April 15, 35 F with rain and cat-paws and a forecast of 0 sun out to the edge of media frames??