Typhoon Tip

Aye yai yai. What to do with the 06z Euro, huh. Firstly, is there any historical performance perspectives on these foreign models that specifically discusses off main interval model solutions? In the old days of the MRF turned GFS .. roughly 15 years ago give or take, the 06 and 18 Z runs were advised as being more than less equatable to a purturbed ensemble member, and to be leery of those run cycles because they did not contain the fuller suite of input grids for one, but because of that they also default did not have all the souped up advantages that the 00 and 12 Z solutions come with. However, I seem to recall reading or hearing someone ( hopefully a rep from an actual agency and not some articulate weinershnitzel that only sounds convincing - like me LOL ) kidding.. .but, the 06 and 18 Z GFS runs are now supposely more packed with legit initializations ( not data samples that were pulled off the previous model's first 6 hour positions ...etc..), but actual empirical values. I don't know what amount of all this is really true. But, I do vividly recall the Euro prompted Will once to put a thread together for a coastal two winters ago, because it came out on an 18z run, and just 72 hours out, too, morphing everything together just like we wanted to hear and see - like a con artist only found in literature... Then, we spent 6 hours ballooning said thread from 1 page to ... perhaps 10 pages deep of what ultimately turned out to be red herring when the next run abandoned and fell back to the emerging consensus for a nada event. No fault to Will - shit I would have probably done the same... I recall the telecon layout over in the American side really wanted more anyway, and that Euro run was inside it's 4.5 day wheelhouse. So...ever since then I've been leery of these off hour Euro runs. Fact of that matter is, though subtle in amount of shifting considering the total domain space ... it does still present a continuity change - just so happens it went from a ho-hum elevation paster to "fun" (?) grid concern - I have been advertising myself that the 'noise' should not be so readily ignored in these very highly, very delicate and sensitive determination deal(s) ... 30 miles and .4C worth of corrections is 1" of silver versus 10" of 3 days in the dark...etc... I will say this ... if that 06z Euro run takes the prize it will "synergistically" overwhelm the component determinants in that solution and uniform the column down to Metrowest driveway tops - ... In fact, there could be a secondary maximum that ultimately illustrates that point... say Wayland to Shrewbury to Acton ...somwhere in there getting almost as much as a hill tops out near Watchusett ... It's sort of metaphoric to the same argument of "snowing hard enough .. it doesn't matter what time of year" ? same idea, only... this storm goes too far over typology in seasonality/climo/and what-evers aspect, and just places that region inside a cyro cauldron -

Oh by the way .... haha ...

The other plausible result of the 'hook and ladder' is that doing so at this time of year will do so while rad and ground confirmation are attenuating rapidly.. The whole structure needs to get a strong thermodynamic feed-back from deepening cyclogen total physics space, such that the storm maximizes not so much prior to completing the west "backing in," but still doing so while - if it bonks early due to lax gradients in key physics ( you know this...) it backs in as an empty dump truck ..heh. You get my meaning.. I've seen countless -NAO pinned lows gets slung back west and they come light cold showers... I really like your previous idea better for elongating the low's overriding jet forcing, such that the QPF producing mechanics et al are more like slow moving steady fire-hosing - ... I mean what you described above, that type of storm 'hook and ladder' typically evolves from more of a nucleated morphology aloft ... storm gets snagged and it's like a planet getting too close to a black hole and it gets sucked in - ... But the total baroclinice space is more charged (winter), so the storm's getting feed back as gets drawn in and we have yellow bands arcing onto the coast from SE to NW... blah blah. This has to be more of the band moves into the area, then gradually turns E and hoses while the column cools.

Just getting caught up here this morning... ah yeeeeah, they all do though? They do, in simplest sense of it. Heights, more or less higher over the west over N/A... is counter-balanced with descent in that regard back east... = coastal storm. At a very orbital perspective we could say all events resemble one another. But as I said in the original suggestion - "in situ to the storm" ... I wasn't comparing the total synopsis. That literally means NOT included all the stuff you are comparing, but just the storm (centric) itself. Just to be clear.. There's value in comparing to 1997 for other reasons. As far the whole scope and scale, I don't see a huge comparison to the 1997 in the 00z NAM - this was always just discussing that model. That event had better defined R-wave pattern with a coherent +PNAP footprint from west coast to east coast. That means amped Rocky's ridge, giving total wave-space constructive interference, ...which then helps to really deepen and slow that event ... etc..etc. This is more of a nebular pattern - much more of a just being in the right time and place wrt a typical "bowling season" event. What I had in mind, storm-centric comparisons: Both did and could ( respectively ) result in slow movement, position ...capture and dynamic height fall behaviors, lending to well -established CCB being more so colder profiled and "perhaps" QPF prolific. Those specific/ discrete elements remind me of 1997. Overall and including other guidance: Much of that is observable in the others too...I mean they don't very 'that' much. The GFS looks very NAM-like...etc.. This may also be a weaker version of 1997

They may have been referring to the leading whole synopsis across the continent included - I mean the cyclone alone ...

Mm perhaps ... the best comparator in situ ( meaning not including the area outside the storm which I don’t know how that compares…) really does seem to presently be 1997 in that NAM

Good post imho We touched on that facet earlier - the eerily stalwart behavior.

Yeah no. This thing would completely overwhelm any of those kinds of factors

What I just saw took my breath away

I wouldn’t discount small giga motions as mere ignorable noise in this sort of delicate set up. Could be 1” of silver or 10” of blue. Very tight

For some reason when I look at this facade I hear a banjo riff running down a chromatic scale ...i.e., "Deliverance"

bingo - I live alone though. I'm not sure exercise is the same option for spouses with kids...or spouses alone. Or if the 'stress' is the same. I mean is it the same for those that bounce their crap off loved ones if they don't get to bounce their loved one's heads off the wall.. Heh Kidding but it's pretty much feels like 'why be alive time' if you don't do something. You know ..humans are social critters - we love each other so much that we have to hate one another to cure it. hahaha... something like that - But, ... it offers a nice sort of soothing sense of 'foundation' - for lack of better word .. - to get that endorphin fix from a heavy workout. For some of us, joy circuitry doesn't have any other trigger points. Interesting.

Re the cold look to end out the month ... What are the EPS indexes right now? - curious. The GEFs telecon layout have actually been correcting the cooler complexion more normalized that last couple nights. Now has neutral PNA out there, as well as this +PNA here in the foreground being less largely so. Seems the operational GFS is doing exactly what I said it always f'n does ... It starts off each run cycles with handfuls of warmth it doens't get are caused by seasonal change ( a.k.a. celestial mechanics forcing it's hand) ...then, spends the next 4-6 days worth of time intervals figuring out how to scrub the warm out of the run so that it can get back to NCEP modeler's [ apparent ...] belief that it's always November 12th every day of the year. The Euro is obscene for a different set of reasons... that - I suspect - is related to it's defaulting everything and anything it is handling at D4 and then sees it through a magnification out in time. I just don't see 504 height cores over JB on May 1 as very likely ...

I don't buy it either... That appears to be over-wrought and almost inorganic looking so late in the season. I lean away from that 13 isohypsotic flow maelstrom of the GFS on D12 ... we'll see

I came to find over the years that salt 'cooked' into a meal does little to satisfy the savory sensation of taste when serving the meal. Same salt content when cooked seems not to sensate at time of ingestion. Not sure why that is.. perhaps partial chemical bonding ... Maybe just dilution in general. I can make up SciFi to explain but I don't know why that is. You can take a fraction of the seasoning of the food preparation part, particularly and specifically if the prep means heating and actually cooking, ... and applicate that fraction in salt mass to the served meal at fork-point and the savoriness is much more coherent to the taste sensation. I am not a dietary physician' or whatever titles the pathway of food life-style to subsequent health effects ...etc, but it seems intuitive to me that if one is salt sensitive for whatever reason... eating less "isolated" salt seasoning would probably be better - and... timing the application of salt to food stocks might help there some. Course ...if one is sodium sensitive ...and they eat processed foods - you get what you get. Processed food like uses sodium as binder to get shapes and sizes ...haha... What I'm mentioning only matters for food prep, and more so for/if ingredients are sodium organic and one hates bland taste.

Mm... can't speak for Celtic's "beat writers" ... but ESPN's article does not intimate nearly as dourly as that statement - not even close really. "Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum said Tuesday night that he is still dealing with the after-effects of contracting for COVID-19 three months ago and has been using an inhaler before games as a means to combat them. ..." https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31254061/boston-celtics-jayson-tatum-fighting-covid-19-effects-close-100-percent-performance-picks-up That bold is an entirely different frame-up compared to "..Inhaler full time " What ESPN talks about is an accelerator for oxygen ...which isn't that uncommon for high physical pro sports for one; but secondly, makes it clear that this is along a curve of improvement too. Heh, they way those beat writers put it ... leaves the reader thinking the other way - this is exactly what I was talking about in how media is acting irresponsible. No one know what's real - Just sayn' - not sure which source is right

Not sure how pervasive it is ...but the FOUS grid ( NAM ) has two consecutive time intervals of mid 30's kt BL flow coming into Logan in this thing. That's not trivial wind there -

same at the other end

Yup ... but was that March? shit - couldn't remember when exactly, but I cited this exact one ... thinking it was back in February. But I elaborated the NAM tends to a W-N bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours. Either attribute, both track specifics, or amplitude, could atone for the NAM being so robust, presently. So, I'm skeptical ... Will pointed out a 'tick' - let's not ignore that? not that anyone is...just sayn'... Because the NAM will do that - attempt to keep you in the game with easily ignore-able ticks, that guide you right to a destination of the only thing blue is your ballz

News agencies should be held accountable for manipulation tactics - but it is impossible to prove ... "Semantics litigation" ?? Yeeeeah - good luck! One can't really see that as having a finality in any sort of litigious or Tort-law related processes and endeavor, not one that doesn't take the 14 billion years of the known cosmos to reach any kind of squabbling settlement. Accountability? vague at best - intent does and always has resulted in compromise, with else most ending up free runners. The key is education as a black box and that has always been the case. If the audience is wiser... they don't get beguiled so readily in the first place. What it really exposes is about the audience - it's really more about 'dimming of the commoner intellectual brain.' My hypothesis: Since nature doesn't use anything it does not need ... that's why the masses lowest common denominator is back before the scientific revolution. See, there is a negative feed back of modernity where 'wherewithal' stops prudential thinking, because the latter requires energy... and nature does not do that - to wit and which, we are still a part. The conveniences spanning multiple generations ( despite iniquity in distribution ) make for such energy for existence at individual and whole structures, no longer as necessary for the everyday decision making. We have to keep in mind, biology is no different then any other observable 'anything' about reality - nothing in existence occurs in utter disconnect, in a vacuum unto itself - even a rock has some information and history that roots it necessarily back to some system purpose. Kind of smacks as Quantum Mechanics Principle that nothing can ultimately be truly lost... It's philosophy that - ironically ... - takes deeper intellect to see. Example, medicine and science sold us that the Appendix organ is a defunct evolutionary left over that serves no purpose ...but recent science proved that to be likely false; it does in fact have a some minor on-going usefulness in the machinery of the human gut - I just can't recall specifically what that is/was because I'm a idiot. lol... But my hypothesis is...when you soak a population in relative affluence, that tends to pacify the civility, .. breeds apathy... entitlement... "trophy cultures?" ...hello. That pacification, as we express it as a techno-orgasmic species, is consistent with nature not wasting anything - we don't continue to exhaust "thinking" energy for prudential criticism and objective cause-and-effect consequence nearly as needed, because we are in a convenience bubble. By the time this is ubiquitously known...it will be around a campfire after the holocaust in some setting like "Book Of Eli" - the irony is... the greed of big media news "cinema" is creating fake dystopia for the dumb down thumb swipers, or mouse clickers, when the real dystopia will take place because of it all.. So, it's a fascinating catch-22, that the evolutionary process that gave humanity the ability to manipulate the environment to the point of such convenience addling in modernity would ultimately become of the world... leads inexorably to it's own de-evolution - a de evolution that can defined in many ways [use the imagination].

Yeah, I wonder where the NAM is situating it's UVM core(s) with respect to thermal profiling. Crucially, UVM specifics like that? absolutely. In fact, this technically starts off as an amorphously defined southerly flow/conveyor, that pivots/'backs' around to the E ..like taking 12 to 18 hours to do that pivot. Once it does, that's when these ptypes start going blue blobbed out there over the elevation spines... ...blah blah the low ( NAM ) then dynamically assists its own cold profile and throws a parachute party. I mean ...folks need to realize ... if the cold profile of NAM worked out, it's a cotton ball snow storm where it does go over. You might hear them thump on the car tops if you turned the engine off ...heh. The old farmer's adage about the big snow flakes mean a change to rain ...fails in this case, because if you go to those big aggies ...that means you were not handed an address for the popular people party ...only to arrive there and find that the party was in fact somewhere else.

I keep thinking of this ... It's funny that this was a whopper teleconnection flagged by the GEFs some 14 days ago actually.. I remember posting several repeating iterations ( to deliver a point that I still don't know if anyone actually acknowledged despite my harangue LOL..), that there was a 'monster mid month signal.' Probably the reticence to do so centers around the unfortunate caveat also discussed re that mid April thing ... uh yeah. By then, nearing mid August sun power ... I had let it go but here we are... It's just hard to keep on things when for one, you stop caring.. .but, we are putting up 78 F days off and on waiting for some signal to materialize...when the other side is even more warmer climate as inevitable. It's not really conducive to giving a shit - Ever think of that - ? whilst we offset acceptance and sorrow stage of the winter death psychology, with a couple of blips on the EKG, we do so under the equivalence of August 24th sun. Imagine a blue bomb in discussion on any August 22nd? I've seen it be 96.4 F on August 24th and that was a cold bust because it was 22.5 C at 850 ..but of course cirrus plumes timed which is usually how the true cutting edge big heat fails in New England. ... Anyway, it's tough to argue seasonal lag when we make legitimate comparisons, huh -

I like behaviors to 'make sense' ...or at least suggest plausible explanation if reasons for behavior cannot be coherently evinced. Heh... I mean, the NAM's run variance between 12z yesterday and now ...really, I don't know which run I'm looking at if just boxing east of Utica, N of Jersey and S of Brian. That region is, other than very minor irrelevances, the same run across 5 cycles. How is that possible ? It's almost like the low already exists over Nantucket in the virtual sense - like a slot for a cog, and it wants to find it's nesting point. ...heh, symbolism but you know what mean... But seriously, go to TT and put the 32km NAM on hour 54 (06z run this recent), and click the Prev. Run button 5 times: same result inside of nuance and noise. Operational philosophy: That's weird in itself. Lol. What to do? ...I guess I'm hinting that "maybe" ( ouch) this could be a weird situation where the other models are missing some sort of dynamical feed-back and how that integrates and forces deep layer morphology. In general, there are events in history where the NAM did well... however rare that may be the case - ugh. But of those, I do distinctly recall this sort of stalwart stubborn continuity leading. Back in February ... it didn't have that... It was repositioning features run to run, and then for 3 -cycles it feigned continuity and went amped/NW between 60 and 84 hours...only to pull the rug out < 54. But that was a fun 18 hours of model-cinema, no doubt! This 12z run ...can't wait to see if it hits for 6th consecutive run, ...not just the 6th run, ...but as though it is just duplicating intervals like that. I guess for the purpose of being very concise: this is using the "behavior" of the NAM as a possible deterministic tool - but I would only suggest so because said behavior being what it is.

Short memories with the NAM ... ? Lest we forget that it hammered everyone east of the Hudson for multiple runs back in Feb, when other guidance like the UKMET was pancaked and out to sea with cirrus streaks. That set up did not hammer the regions. Big phantom event way too far NW - I warned the NAM does this with NW bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours back then, too ... Inevitably, it left the devoted suckers sitting alone in the cafe staring at the door, wondering if she'll show ... Seeking pros: This is different pattern-wise, however. The flow is slower around this thing, ..the wave-lengths smaller... It's a more self-determining/mechanically conserved "dynamics" storm - drilling down from above also has its deterministic headaches. The baroclinic canvas is almost non-existent in the lower troposphere at event entry, but a crucial feed of cold air ( NAM ) injects at critical timing, as the 500 mb passes underneath SNE. This induces frontogenics ..probably 850 to 600 mb range... which the NAM uses to materialize UVM ... So, upward vertical motion hydrostatically causes downward heights, and that machinery drills its way down - drawing the freezing level with it. For snow ...obviously first to the elevations ...then that looks bit like flashing over to parachutes. I can't throw that behavior away in and of itself, because I've seen that happen in early May. It may be worth it to note, these top-->down events tend not to need 32 to snow below... When height falls take place and freezing level sags deeply under the UVM regions.. the cat-paw temp is probably 40 F believe it or not. Flip to slush blats is 37.6 or something, and it's all snow at 35/36 F after dark. I must admit, it's been pretty anchored across the last 5 consecutive cycles in the NAM, with less variance than any other guidance across that span of runs. Wild speculation but maybe the slower field and shorter wave lengths, and more mechanics not already blown open at the planetary scale but conserving inward to the 'self-centered' low ( haha)... maybe this sort of circumstance et al is just more the NAM's wheelhouse. Euro was yeah ...a tad better at 500mb ...if by attitude alone. Problem is.. obviously this situation being spring marginal incarnate ... has very low tolerances for whether it's cat pawing or flips over to actual aggregates. It may seem out of left field to mention but, 1992 Dec was a wonderful example excessively narrow tolerance razor edging cat paws vs 1/4 mi vis parachutes.

Heh maybe the NAM can score a coup