Typhoon Tip

Another thing I noticed and pisses me off because this happens a lot and I never know when to trust the observation at hand... yesterday, ...while we finagled that decent day east of the CT River Valley, there was a this nearly stalled N-S oriented wall of light shits from the Capital District of eastern NYS to PHL... inching E at that blazing speed of excruciating. I saw that ...and thought, 'that looks like it'll be here tomorrow - is that gonna do that here?' ... Seems now, that's precisely what happened ...and, it is still blazing along at the speed of excruciating.

...and I wonder how 'confounding' it really is ... or 'was,' too. It's almost like collectively et al we just sort of assumed its vague presence in the guidance ...to mean 'noise' and less influencing perhaps. Yet it's been there lurking in the guidance all along. I think if it busts the day, like it probably will, it won't really be as much of a blind sided thing as it will an error in not taking it seriously: That said, it's also not really fair - what is in life... - because the guidance over the last 48 hours really showed that as being less influential ... here we are with gumming up matters clear to MHT NH such that it is... It's a whirl that is decoupled from the mid levels, where the models do better in open air - in other words, it's 'cyclonic volume' is essentially all contained where the models don't do so well. The NAM sort of hinted at 00z ...with Logan in an slight inversion T1 to T2, and 92% RH1 values through 16z... I saw that and went uh oh -

Oh yeah. Some of the synoptic basics are in the region - ... not talking Enid OK soundings or anything..but, regional LI's are -3 ..and with low level moisture left elevated by this bs out there now being cooked by sun inside a warm sector... oh, look - here comes a late day front.

not helping that there's a llv cyclonic 'echo' S of ISP... almost looks on satellite like it's producing a low ( 700 mb ) level deform band of light shits over eastern sections. It's whirling away at the speed of 'utterly disconnected from the steering field' so who knows how long that thing claims the day too - yuck. it sucks out there now... I just hope we've at least managed some appreciative rain... But if today busts... it looks like Saturday is trending milder with less backside cold ... 850s stay 0 -ish, with WNW d-slope and 540 thickness > 540 so... it may still make 64... Cold fails in sneaky ways at this time of year when it does, and spring sometimes has a way of proving by force that July is still coming - lol

mm.. having my doubts - but I usually do when day's that are supposed to bust out, but the dawn reveals the way that this one has... - sometimes I end up surprised, sometimes I don't. But high res vis imagery shows that paint-spill on the pavement look while synoptic cloud traffic whizzes by over top - that's a signature for low cloud smear in a saturated soup inversion that is effectively trapped.

I wouldn't be shocked if we see a GEFs based PNA correct up in tonight's computation. If there's any continuity off the 12z run, that PNA is gonna rise - the EPS and GEFs mean have preludes to some sort of bigger warm signal formulating in upon their D9 -> .. So it's a distant signal ...but seeing both those guidance source in tight agreement on a low frequency wave ejection that is anchored subtropically and arcs to the Dakota latitudes on D10 getting ready to roll easward, ...I've seen that before a summer Sanoran heat expulsion ... here we are April I also want to point out that some notable April heat has happened in the past following cool ENSO winter -

man... fascinate the hate - that's all we can do with 'em

Yeah ..It may have been PWM that had the 73 high ... I know that CAR had the NE wind gusts though. I remember seeing that in a special ASOS interval. It could be that the BD was just formulating ahead of that acceleration - speculation...

Yeah I get ya ... Not trending right for a 'big kahoona' event - Frankly, I know you didn't asked but part of my gear shifting and warm season enthusiasm is ...I admit, engagement fatigue - I mean I just get sick of it.. the whole everything. I don't care what bomb is on what f'n chart after March 1 any year...OR it had better be greater in prominence and awe-capacity to offset the exhaustion. I'm just ready to do something else - anything...by March, so long as it is not following cyclone disappointment lol The reason I bring that up is because of that right there, in the Euro.. .Like, doesn't that routine get old... wringing hands in want, only to know that July is nearing at the gravity-time constant of the cosmos ...ain't helping. I guess I'm weird... By the way - for Scott - nice Sanoran/SW heat release setting up on the D10 Euro! who's with me -

I'd still watch that ... The Euro may yet be overdone, but that seasonal trend stuff is not true 'always,' either... If that 500 mb looks that way tomorrow, that's a pretty dicey scenario N of PWM north and E... Despite my own doubts, I am also open minded... I mean it's not impossible to bring a short duration deal to the doorsteps up there and that's too close to discount entirely just yet..

And it's so persistent, and common among all guidance. So much so it reeks of some sort of technological or systemic aspect about 'modeling technology' in general. Maybe something that emerges when they are only so constrained ... becomes more amplitude than is real, out in time. If they can't "do it all" perfect, the little bit of uncertainty squirts out emergent events in a sense. It's complex shit ..but, we learned in college in free discussion in FAST II that the only way to really forecast with 100% accuracy out in time, is to know precisely two aspect: one, what every quantum momentum state in real time is, of every incalculably large number of particles that make up the fluid mass of the atmosphere; two, predict the future of what/when/how/why those particle will "emerge" forces (chaos/fractals in other words) via synergistically in their interaction, and/or unknown outside influences to the system - which by definition of 'unknown,' therein represents a particular problem... Now..."I'm just a caveman and your fancy flying machines frighten me" ...but that 'sounds' a good deal like God to me. Lol - particularly in the latter of those two. The first one...mm, maybe in some sort of far off futuristic Star Trekkian landscape of utopian technological wonder that kind of measuring can lay-in the initialization grids ... Even if so the computing power there after ? Even with these so dubbed PITA FLOP drives that can do like trillion cubit calculations in nano time, that'd be like asking a chimp to solve E=MC2 ... may take awhile. Definitely need to call in "Data" and "Geordi LaForge" on that one... Ha. 'Course, by extension of Moore's Law ...any capacity to do all that ...prooobably has the ability to 'control' the weather anyway... Somehow with some kind of Quantum Scale Oscillation core of the Weather Modification Net, so to speak ...and there's no reason at that point to predict anything - the weather will be exactly what they want it to be. Can you imagine how silly this cinema rush weird addiction in here would be if the charts were being created in Kevin's basement?? oooh sign me up - I dunno - but it's been down right dependable. Throw a D12 giant thing on he charts, then spend 80 cycles figuring out how to get rid of it... IF you have a historic bomb on a D9 chart, you get a pedestrian/ mid -grade event. If you have a mid grade event, you get nothin'... Unless it's Dec 17 lol ... I mean there have been some that worked out..

It was warmer than that still back WSW toward Lowell on the 29th - Oh yeah... 3/29 was 87 up there on the monitor for the UML weather lab station - curious actually why KASH was 73... hm... Either way, the next day on 3/30 was 88, and then 3/31 was 89! zomb ... I've spun yore about what happened later on in the evening of the 31st that fateful day. The greatest backdoor front attributed, 1 hour temperature declination I had ever prior to, or since experienced while being a resident to anywhere east of the Hudson. I did once come close in 2003, while working a gig that was set above the CVS at the 900 block of Comm Ave..across from B.C.'s then being built arena/rec center... It was 93 ish at 1 or so P.M. It was mid April ... Like all of 10 minutes passed the Labrador Current's seasonal nadir as it kisses by New England's coast as nice little foreshadow ...hm, maybe 89 in March and 93 in mid April isn't entirely synoptically stable - you think? In she swept! I distinctly recall the sky had two layers plainly observable: one was the on going cumulus ... the arriving BD was too shallow yet so the failed towers continued leaning NE... while underneath, shallow sailor's spirit scud racing SW... Peering down from that 2nd floor over the Red line stop there... college girls clad in short-shorts with exposed thighs and halter tops stood arms crossed in huddles ... probably quite confused. It was already 49 with wind funneling up the Ave. Ended up around 41 or so by early evening all through Metrowest... On March 31, 1998 it was 84F at 6 pm 3 hours after touching the 89. It was 37F at midnight, 30 F of which shed in < 30 minutes between 7 and 8pm... You talk slammin' screen doors and snapping flags? man - this was no 22 kt puffer BD ...these were whole gales for 15 minutes when that sucker ripped through. Oh it was classic too - the 3pm analysis still back in the DIFAX days (although the web was catching on as a transmission/data dependency...) displayed a powerful S/W slicing SE just NE of Caribou up over far E Ontario...and immediately in the NVA region behind the cold frontal teeth were point literally not figuratively SW ... like it was a true BD. As an aside, it seems we haven't really had 'that' particular ilk of BD in recent years... You know? where rolls in cold air form the NE ..and the front its self cuts rudely underneath a buoyant light warm air. I mean it's arguable either way... but in most of these lately - to me - seem more like N-door fronts, then a kind of secondary NE 'acceleration' - which may in fact be an amorphous BD genesis after the fact.. But it's a tedious distinction, either way.. Anyway, Caribous Maine at that 3pm hour was gusting on ASOS to 47kts! NE... it was 41 after they had a record high - not sure...want to say 73... The radar had the boundary, too. I guess it doesn't take long to get from KCAR to KBED at 45 kts, huh?

preview of this summer....

although... judging by radar/now at a larger scope..it's pretty shitting from NY south ..

Good call Brian - ... or 3km NAM I guess ? but my interpretation of today was way too pessimistic from a couple night's ago. It looked at the time like murk and pre-warm frontal sludge .. but it's dry as a bone and very high ceilings... Still 61 here ...

yeah ..that's a draw back of that approach using FOUS grids ... not sure why that never has offered that 300 mb milk layer like that. ...sooo many warm days of yore that busted less because of that elevated RH shit. I once saw it 22C at 850 mb, and 88 F at the sfc under a white sky 300 mb ceiling..

24009985220 -3701 191408 55071105 30000742621 -2603 172703 59141308 36000762445 01501 171911 59171310 Most probably don't know wtf these numbers mean... but I love them nonetheless. The NAM model is probably not going to be around forever and with the direction of the tech ambit and so forth... it's trivially a waste of time to learn how to decode FOUS at this point - ha, man... When I was in college back when dinosaurs roamed ... if you were good at doing so and could visualize between neighboring FOUS sites ( ALB/LGA...ETC..) ...you really didn't need any of these graphical cinemas that we use for for entertainment than analytics these days .. Anyway...they are from the 12z NAM's FOUS grid for Logan ... The first bold is 24 hours from 8am just this morning - so 8am Thurs. The next, '09', mean 0.09 QPF... so that implies up to that point in time, light rain. The next is the wind about middle boundary layer, add a 0 by conventional usage yields 140 degrees ( SE/SSE). The next are temperatures are 980, 900 and 800 mb respectively... and still an inversion between the 980 mb and 900 mb ( 11C at 900 mb is pretty toasty for late March!), while it is only +7 below... That is a classic pre-warm frontal environment, 900 at 11 ...the boundary is nearby. Probably CT is already busted into warm sector there. The next row... bold, are the RH at 700 and 500 mb respectively. 50 to 70% is considered "partly cloud" by old school convention... SO, modulate accordingly.. These are showing/suggesting over eastern Mass, the sky is open and clear. That 74 (unbold) is because it is muggy actually.. .and that lower number can either mean low clouds or elevated DP - in this case..it's may be some of both..but I probably leans clear with blue tinted hills in a muggy appeal. The next bold, "27" ... again that is the wind having veered around the west in the middle boundary layer. Where available ... I suspect MOS busts too cool given that look. All that progression above is what it looks like with a strong warm front goes through.

I realize the snark .. but, I still wonder if the April is that bad this year ... I originally surmised a few weeks ago, the plausibility of a La Nina and/or HC in combination, might eventually take over where the AO relaxes... serving up a warmer spring tendency. Unsure if it is for those reasons but regardless, this week is a good head start toward that statistical outcome. We'll see... Also, just looking at the Hemisphere from orbit: there are plenty of identifiable R-wave structures to gage the flow; that means the correlations are alive and well. I heard folks tossing the telecon breakdown out there... you're right in a vacuum but I'm not sure it is applicable to the here and now just yet. I mean yeah, at some point more nebular structures/'noise' will make negative and positive NAOs or PNAs less usefully telling... I don't believe the status of the hemisphere and the modeling out in time really represents we are in that state anytime soon. By the way, ...don't be shocked if the -NAO out there in the EPS and GEFs ... corrects more neutral. I'm only mentioning because of trends since the AO recovery began last month. These extended ranged polarward indexes have been sagging their curves out there, only to lift them up when D10-14 gets nearer in time. Just sayn' The 00z Euro - as we discussed - now more progressive and not as mechanically foreboding with that D6/7 system. It's a predictable correction scheme with that tool. Any modestly +PNAP structure with a S/W up in Manitoba on D9 and look out!

NAM looks mild to warm in the grid on Thursday busting out ... which probably means warm at the surface. And given the synoptics that may actually be the first humid day… Although not unbearably so of course

Jeez the GFS has oscillations 30 to 80 Seems like that’s been happening a lot in recent late winters and springs - bud killer seesawing

Keep in mind ... the water has a z-coordinate in the Lakes vitality. That is mere surface in that link, and has less corrective impact on the former - apples and oranges. The thermalcline of the water is what is alarming, in that the mid strata is staying elevated through winters, which gives the entire body thermal momentum to achieve those types of departures in summers... All of which an ice cover in a smaller mass than is normal, spanning an intraseasonal amount of time unfortunately is within normal small scale variances, that does not offset the implication of the three decades in water data monitoring/science, ongoing and involved at that GLERL division of NOAA; 2013 - 2016 featured winters with anomalous cold downward 'spikes' in along a multidecadal trend that is still unfortunately rising at an alarming rate -

mm... I have my faults as a contributor on this social media-sphere like everyone, ... I'm not sure overloading superlatives is one of them ...

certainly is redic out there today. 70 is my nick high and 68 is my base max ... for a couple of hours while immersed in post equinox sun and very light wind.

For the love of all that's good and decent would you please adopt a tamer set of adjectives ! jesus H. christ - ...you're not being taken seriously friend. Do yourself a favor and try to absorb the constructive purpose of the corrections above. All those crossed out phrase components - get rid of that imaginative stuff and save it for your spin-off series of "Guess what, things tend to wake up at Dawn anyway"