Typhoon Tip

Florida," is apropos as a fully descriptive cause - 'nough said. Seriously, the whole lithosphere there is a honeycomb of underminable salt caverns. The whole peninsula spends every other 10,000 years under seawater... and is probably in the process of being reclaimed again. It's just probably going to start happening where buildings start getting increasingly destablized .. .homes and parking lots and traffic intersections cave downward ..etc.

Interesting ... CPC doesn't appear too interested. They have zero hazards anywhere east of the GL for early next week, which is seems odd to me considering this specter has been growing in guidance of three days. hm

My goodness... I mean if Tuesday can't make historic heat given this 12z Euro set up rollin' in - it just won't ever get hot here. And we know it does so, heh- At 12z it already has a plume of 20C at 850 mb escaping east of the area, and the surface pressure pattern has a lee side thermal trough from coastal Maine to interior eastern VA.. That's going to be one of those megalopolis 101ers if that is allowed to mature under a 18z to 21z open insolation soak.

This is a Sunday through this next Wednesday heat wave. Don't shake a stick at Sunday. In fact ..it is not unprecedented, the entry into a warm departure event sometimes comes in more fervent than thought. I was just looking at the CMC run - which is my last of choice ...but fwiw - that model has 576 dm thickness diurnally blossoming from BUF to PWM and down to DCA, in a WSW wind from the surface to 300 mb as height are rising over 590 ...all by 18z Sunday already. I don't really have to look at much else when seeing that synoptic behavior ? That's straight up over 90 for everywhere. This whole thing seems to have morphed away from an 88/76 Bahama Blue pattern ...into a more standard heat density model .. there is a kinetically charged 850 mb layer involved from the SW that's gotten into the modeling over the last couple few cycles, and the pressure pattern is more STL to BOS oriented now - GFS/GGEM. ...we'll see what the Euro does but it was already sorta there in the 00z run. As Brian mentioned, the point and click was 95 to 100.

You know it strikes me of a conversation I had with a co-worker, back before the Pandemic changed things and we'd meet up for lunch ...and dissect the world to pieces with Carrington Events, ... indeed plagues, be it super volcanoes, Canary Island bifurcation/landslide bible tsunamis..etc. Even Fermi Complexes were fun romps. This is one of those Industrial society cosmic dildo events. Like plane crash theory ? Not one thing that brings the bird down - it's a cocktail of serendipity, the consequences of any one is meaningless, but they come to a happenstance nexus out in time ...and in aggregate - etc. See .. 1,000 teepees set out over the grassland prairie of the America frontier west, and all their occupants - they may not live as long? They may not benefit from the abundances and conveniences as we do now. No immunizations. No luxuries and/or accesses to stimuli that we may even operate within that are presumptive. Like we do. But ... when something fails in our world it has to take on this sort of enormity in specter and ghastly cost in casualty density. Trade-off I suppose .

Hey Brian ...can you delete my post making a tongue-n-cheek sleeping in, in that thing in Florida? - I didn't realize the scope of it at that time and thought at first it was a construction site that didn't have many people in it -

I'm beginning to wonder if that is headline-able heat Mon-Wed ... This 12z oper GFS run has expanded the y and x coordinate aspect of the heights associated with retrograde WAR ... now surpassing the advertized onset of the Pac NW ridge node. Between the two, and having a very weak counterbalanced negative region separating, this is a now hemispheric scoped ordeal with positive anomalies. In fact, said shear axis/weakening trough that separates the two is shallowing out over the last few runs - this is/was true in the Euro cluster too. That is allowing for SW heat release to get sucked up into the continental conveyor. Tracing the 850 mb plume back in time on the 00z Euro ..it originates over New Mexico and west Tx works it's way up and gets caught and trapped under this positive anomaly that has been growing in the last 3 cycles. It's turning into - or trying to ... time to mess it up - a serious heat impact scenario.

I mean that seemed a bit like perfect timing for the reaper - Judging by the surrounding ambient daylight, made sure most units had non-suspecting people in beds at that time. Coulda happened at 2pm when most were out or at work but no -

I got a hunch the real-estate market just revved further the already hot U.S. property economic engine: " ... Condos for sale!"

I'm not sure how they get to, "...Although oceanic temperatures are relatively cool across the tropical Atlantic..." with this, Isn't that 83 F ?? More over, it is in fact anomalously of warm measure via multiple sources. Interesting take - ...how warm does it have to be to be relative warm instead - heh

Oh, no shit - okay.. well, like we said above, the Euro members seemed sort of interested in that feature. Now, I am not certain of this, that TPC really does model-dependency, but I have noticed a pattern where the modeled spin up regions get yellow X's favorably so ... so I dunno. wait which one - oh okay. The verdi deal wow, 40 % at day 'out there' is actually pretty damn good when considering climate for June. ...I mean relative to that ... I got to say, with SAL displaced N a bit, that seems to open the region to less of that environmental inhibition. Plus as mentioned, multi-decadal OHC isn't hurting either. Maybe this is a good year for an early CV train ride

oh ..pay attention dude. It's called chemo therapy - it strips one's hair. Although actually, I think the more recent science and state of the art of treatment might be more 'targeted doping' ..such that they don't do pan-systemic bombardment of the patient. That was the older era of cancer protocols for, in particular, blood and bone - I know, because I lost a sister to Leukemia. Now, I realize that you are a strapping middle aged iconic paragon of health and vitality as a BALD man, that did not go through that - but "7" and "bald" together in the same sentence, might be a clue that there is something unusual about how that child ended up in that state while reading that ? - just sayn'

Seems these vertical structures don't do too well with top loading when there are failures above. The NYC metaphoric towers of Babylon failed like that; they seems to "domino" downward with increasing acceleration/ease as each floor succumbs to the crushing weight of the cumulative failing floors above ...and down she comes. It's like why bother with the implosion physics/demolition - Jesus. Turns out, a short cut might be to just to whack out the legs of the top floor. These tubular frame construction prove inadequate against gravity - and because the open atrial center spaces offer no resistance, the structure follows path of least resistance and rubbles inward ... with all the non-suspecting, sleeping people immediately steeply engaged in some kind of sudden directive dreaming -

I mean picture the scene... The bald 7-year old with watery lenses, glances up through her iniquitous eyes to set them upon that vista you provided, an escape ...if just for a moment, for a world where freedom is always proven just a mirage on an bleak, uncertain horizon. In that moment, you brought the heaven she's desperately hoping she may one day decide when it is time. "Karen Fowler?" breaks the moment of serenity. As her father, holding back his own tears, "Are you ready lollypop - let's go get better." "Alright," she suserrates as she fiddles with her blanky. And as her father leads her in hand to that terrifying door, she looks over her shoulder one last time, and dreams. See, you could have been the deliverance - that gift from God. But, nah ...these are just daily views. Lol

I wonder if we might see an Invest S of the CV's off Africa. That's got cyclonic broad rotation with cloud tops blowin a hole clear to the mesosphere. I think the Euro ensembles were tracking a TW. SAL is min and SST/OHC are above normal - what's new since 1998 .. and SAL appears minimal. It's unusually early for Verdi but again ...I've been hammering that 1955 climate doesn't apply now, so any inference in that regard is on shakier presumptive application to put it nicely. We'll see - Also, that TUTT ESE of Bermuda seems to be trying to bore its way down lower. Convection generating closer to core-centered. It seems - however - that TPC doesn't Invest unless the models have some percentage of a visibility on the feature in question. So, perhaps not on either of these until such time as the model-reliance sends a memo to upgrade.

LOL, I like how that bar-graph up top offers up the lightest most ineffectual cooling wind velocity, precisely during those hottest days.

- the 00z operational Euro has 18C with pocketed and plumes to 20C dappled within the chart, in a thermal layout at 850mb, smeared in a continental conveyor from Pittsburgh to the waters S of NS by 8 pm on that day. The potential for that day is to outpace the machine guidance/interpretation tech. However, the dice roll is in the ceiling/cloud expanse. Though the air mass supports a hot day, it seems the model is bucking for more 700, 500 and 300 mb RH which lends to expectation for clouds and capping temp surely follows. Not sure though. We have a climate precedence in the area for when SW deep layer flows setup, to be bust the cloudier guidance as having been too much so - this could be one of those scenarios. If so, the temperature part of the T and TD total pig bum may end up with bigger cheeks. That said, the DP is higher than previous guidance as well, with 65 to 70 already throughout the area. So even if the temp does hold up at 84 to 86 ( which again...I have climo/modeling doubts given the synopsis ), that's what your traipsing around in out among the fairways ... that, and innumerate deer and horse flies doing mobius loops around your head and nape, while occasional sweat beads, cresting your brows, sting your eyes into blinking or shutting altogether right on your backstroke. I'd be back at the club bar in A.C. and beer, asking them how it went when their soaked shirted frames piled back in myself.

Dude, you are sitting a fortune of marketable photographs without even havin' to Ansel Adams pimp 'em out or dark-room trick. Most smart phone tech these days can do that shit anyway... But, this can be framed and sold - easily and successfully - for VT versions of the bodega, or mom-and-pop shops down the cobblestone thoroughfares of New England charm. You know, at those tourist-fly-in-amber stores and cafes, those hapless targets coming to experience New England splendor. But whatever, with the web you could set up a domain and swag it that way - tellin' you dude. Imagine that photo on September 30th, when the shrubbery and foreground floor foliage one could swear there is wild fire because God took a loaded brush of radiative reds and saffron heat and lashed it several times back and forth against that canvas of pine. Same sky ? Man, you'd be outfitting home offices and business lobbies. I could totally see this as a wall-matte in Doctor's office waiting room for example, where people are going for their 5th session of Chemo and could use the peaceful serenity to think of a happy place.

Oh shit - just please don't be like that dweeb in Tolland - we should introduce you to him because this characterization you make of yourself is so strikingly similar to one of the craziest assonistic sumnabishes ever to lurk the WWW ... pretty much is so deplorable most have to say three hail-Mary's just to cleanse their soul for having thought of 'im

... mm, for Logan? Imho, that may be more possible at that location - even considering/likeliness that they need some instrumentation tuning. If the wind happens to balance more offshore in a given June: The air source of sun-bathed land mass, vs the huge thermal sink of Cape Cod Bay/Labradorian termination waters, means a bigger variation against climate - bigger depending on wind direction for that location versus say Hartford - that would occur actually at any oceanic facing shore point. Just sayn' not that you don't know this shit

Can someone explain to me why 'ECMWF Hi-Res' version on Pivotal has to mean the worse f'ing model solution that even an invalid knows has no hope of verifying -

Again ..depends on the guidance details in hand. NAM ext tries to use drag coefficient/friction in a light wind to stagnate the warm air from getting in until Monday... But the Euro has +16.5 at 850 mb with DPs over 65, amid parallel isobars/SW flow ...smooth and laminar, so the NAM wouldn't fit that. In fact, it has < 70% RH at ceiling heights, so if depending where you're teeing off, if it is NW of a PVD-Logan rough axis you're probably looking at 92/65 at apex T... That would probably send the HI to 98 on Sunday ... Euro is a four-day heat wave. GFS not as oppressive on Sunday but still puts up 88/62 ... everybody swelters Monday in either rendition -

Yeah.... 'cause a heat index of a 135 is way worse than 112 - lol.. oy

lol, Scott beat me by 5 minutes! Yeah, the GFS and GGEM are doing their usual dirt in the gear-oil figuring out ways to offset - dunno. Heat is the most fragile of all impactors in weather. But the HI on the Euro is 103 for downtown Worcester ( below the airport duh - ), up to MHT

I dunno about its deterministic value but the Euro's 12z has 96/66 .. 70 in the point and click floater, Mon Tue and Wed this immediate next week, hovering over metrowest of Boston up to MHT