Typhoon Tip

well played ... but unfortunately, this is a metaphysical approach - honestly...get with the program. lol

Nope ... because of Henri, you now have to wait 30 years. weeee

Tomorrow May sneak HIs that rival the highest we’ve seen this year. If it were a month ago I’d say slam dunk. AFD mentions needing adv Wed … NAM pushes hydrostatic hgts close to 580 DAM tomorrow. I realize the moisture content is right at the top of physics but the runs are insistent on open sky Bahama blues/sun. Tues 90/74 .. Wed 92/72.

Unsure where it gathered the polarward drift - I'd take that probably corrected SW of that position.

The one that just came off Africa was pretty evident as a player to me. TPC just decided to Invest on that. It's presently defined by decent cyclostrophic generalized motion in the vicinity of very cold cloud tops - two aspect the enthusiast likes to see collocated: cyclonic motion + cold cloud tops. And with robust regenerative convection. 97L I feel is the redder herring of the two. My experience over the recent years, those types of K.H. lop over gyres, such that this one is, tend to get picked up and developed by guidance over anxiously. They are also by proximity a bit close to SAL contamination, too. It is like they are large but lack coupling to the oceanic heat content. Nevertheless, they've upped to 40% on that in the mid range... I think "98 L"?, by virtue of being so far S and in a region of straight W-E apparent steering has the better environment. It's out-of-the-gate structure appears better as well. It is also deeper in the favorable U/A velocities anomaly region.

So here in Ayer ... no rotation was detectable to the unaided observer. That said, there is a butt-load of shear in the lower 0 to 5km troposphere. The scud fractals are moving pretty swiftly NW around and under the dark bellies of nimbus, with their broken partial glaciated tops are leaning NE. One can see that it wouldn't take much to spin any updraft suspended through that column Pretty classic low LCL over-lap with lower level directional shear environment out there.

I'm right here in Ayer ... Nimbus with fractal towers partially sundogged with trace glaciation over nimbus bottoms. Light right in high DP torridity - no ground truth or rotation at the moment but will keep eyes pealed

Curious ... does anyone have sat and rad coverage of that which hit Tennessee with flooding rains ? I was so caught in Henri I didn't even know that was happening. I don't know what day to even look for - ...I'm sure I can find but if anyone already has it -

Lol, to be fair ... I meant that as a droll tongue-in-cheek, more so than a declarative really - but yeah... the intuition is not so haha. You know, pine bows on camping trips are used as the most effective kindling in campfires for a reason .... HAHA

From that exchange ..you got, 'it's coming' lol... I know I know... Eventually, the end of the cosmos, 15 trillion years into the future ...will end too, and so too, will summer. Back here on Earth, I think we need 10 days ... sorta going along with Brian intimation there - Before that time, we may yet put up some heat in the books. The last cycles of the GFS were less emphatic, but the gist is still there. We probably segue this Henri eviscera into a couple of hot days ..then we fronta or BD hybrid back to seasonality toward the end of the week. That appears to roll out in the extended and another heat surge of unknown anomaly - that's sort of a "best laid plans" play-by-play for the next 10 days.

Queensryche ...wow - Quick search and they apparently, ' ...Continue to tour and record,' and their legacy is "1980 - present" ? (Course, Wiki page could have been composed by a fan ...) That must be the longest successfully operating "band-franchise," not suffering the cliche dramatic band split up in the history of that particular rock sub-genre, ever. I think I read somewhere that gold/and/or platinum VIP ranked pop-cultural bands seldom get longer then 5 years when the success confetti rains begin to fall before someone in the outfit O.D's, or has some other kind of Narcissistic meltdown, or Bi-Polar proof that creative genius is often couched in insanity. 1980 is 40 years ago... HEllo I never got into them.. That one song ..."Silent lucidity," a title that always sounded like an oxymoron to me, it always sparked images of stoned head bangers thinking they were being deep. Oh, I'm sure their swell, super smart artists. I have to admit though, just seeing the name, Queensryche ... it triggered one of those look off to the side stare in nostalgia moments. That song was on the radio - why do we remember moments that seem utterly in-germane? I've always mastered this ability. Couldn't garner a decent grade on an exam in college to save a life, but by gum ...back in 1996, this bloke had five slices of bologna on his sandwich for lunch. And so, I'm sitting there alone at the kitchen table, and I can still smell that generation's lingering life in the air of my grandfather's dilapidated house. My grandmother vanquished some five or six years earlier, and he was a "professional alcoholic being forced into retirement." Battle Creek Michigan. I was sent there by La Familia political pressure to custodian the place. This was while he encroached on the final curtain call, though we didn't know it at that time - denial..etc. That was when dinosaurs roamed the 1991. It was a lonely time... Michigan winters have a way of making one feel pretty isolated. And it's just dark. Between October and March it seems like the sun must rise at noon and its still dark by 5. And the mise en science is a tediously blue-collar zeitgeist - or at least was, too much so, for may taste. It wasn't just for the assholier-than-thou arrogance of youth. I was frustrated because I really knew the person I was talking to was challenged for certain ideas and modes of anything really; yet I possessed no qualitative achievements of my own. The era of life has its own chapter, as tedious and uninteresting as it ultimately was ...Maybe if ever writing memoir that tile of that chapter should be 'Queensryche'

This isn't to you, Brian, per se - Advanced environmental science on the natural states of ecology and the roll that wild fires plays in that, would not agree that "more human attempts" in controls is the answer. The reason for that, is the purist's point of view: we are not that good enough at doing so, and tinkering with systems that have unknowns inevitably has always led to much bigger unintended consequences. Think But that's the ideology - From what I've read though ...the focus has always been in the area of 'prevention'; it is causing the time-bomb scenario. Hence the "controlled burn" - which is almost an amusing euphemism, really, one that banners the ability to reign in what is inherently an physical process involving out of control thermodynamic rage. Anyway, 'intuitively,' it seems the immense complexity of knowing more precisely where and what amount of mass necessarily need fire management in order to maintain lowered catastrophic risk, while still upholding a healthy ecosystem - it's probably an imperfect science ?? I believe that is true. I have seen it said many times, in many different context, " ...Is not completely understood." I don't think human intervention into that natural setting out there has ever really known. Until we do ... it seems logical that we are liable for encroaching on those habitats in the first place. But that's all just A - B, Climate Change than deltas that quite a bit. I mean, if the entire region is truly in the so called "Millennial Drought," as the drama-enterprise of big media has recently adopted as the dystopian slogan-meme for the west, then it also seems futile. Intuitively again, one has to wonder if "any" controlled burning really matters. Because at some point 'death by aridity' is both an above and below foot ultimatum, and similar to what climate scientist warn about the Middle East, the region may be heading toward non-sustainability to civility at all... a.k.a., uninhabitable. I have this "ACME" Road Runner Sci-Fi solution to the problem ...LOL A 10 trillion dollar operation that rivals the Great Wall of China. The great "hydro reclamation" project fills the valley with piped water from the northern tip of the Baja of California. It wouldn't even be a carbon footprint after the development, because the valley is lower than the ocean, so potential gravity is the engine that drives the transport. Evaporation would come immediately into balance after the initial 'pour' process. Before doing so, the alluvial-fan sediment would have to be removed from the valley flow, and that would lower the elevation another hundred foot or so and would take the age of the known Solar System to complete just that phase ... So that, combined with the obvious absurd dumb reasons why this won't work, makes this proposal a cartoon - still... I've often fantasized some sort of 9.2 'never-heard-of-before' Slip Fault quake ( big boy Seismic events have always been a Thrust Fault type ), but the event "splits" the landscape and the ocean tsunamis in... Then, all this technological wizardry humanity is proving it is capable of goes in there with space age desalinization at epic industrial scale, and California has unlimited water.

It's how it begins though ...the early vestiges of seasonal change/suggestion shows up in the modeling. It's like the "shot across the bow" first happens there, ...then we get one in reality - and they do not necessarily result from the same source. - nothing 'CFS,' combined with those sort of time ranges, needs any response in the first matter though - I mean it's not a matter of aging; it's a matter of existence or not. It's hard to 'count on aging well' out of the gates for utter fractal dreams of primitive AI, and nothing disseminated by that idiotic technology does anything else. Really ... why is the CFS run - seriously ...pragmatically, I don't really understand what it's purpose/function is -

89/78 Tuesday ? brutal 00z NAM

You laugh but that shit happened last year... 4" of snow in October is becoming the thing - The folding due to westerly speed saturation pays off early ...but then said speed hurts winter, before ending in another bout that sort of bs

I was actually almost stunned that there was no tor watch preemptively set up this morning until I started analyzing things. I mentioned this earlier ... It's pretty clear that a BD air mass got involved into this. We had two consecutive days of 73 to 77 DPs here, then this morning it was 68/66 with mist and slat, leaves wobbling from the N... uh, scratching head - There's a reason why WPC analyzed Henri with warm front sticking out of it toward the east a couple hours ago This thing was like creating lies as it went - ha! Anyway, there was no way this thing was doing anything under 2000' up along Rt 2

You do realize that as Global Warming continues and human's at last succeed in this extinction event they appear to so eagerly want to see happen ... this kind of warm miasma becomes more and more the norm ... One of the many gem suggestions that comes out of the CC modeling -

Interesting... so they must of just had doubts about a "storm" at all then. Like, they couldn't get that previous one right so the big dawg'll miss - ha. but that's weird psychology when you think about it.. .because not getting rain right in lieu of snow, wouldn't lend one to think that when they predict snow ..it should necessarily be rain - unless they thought the storm would miss altogether. wow...what a delicious morass of distrust -

ah ...having trouble parsing out this sentence lol what -

MEX for ASH on Wed has 95/69 ... It's day 3. Considering MOS damps daily anomalies with climate ...adding a tick or two onto the T side of that relationship implies a steamy sultry pairing ( heh ). No but that would rival any of those mid 90s heat days we had back in June. Thursday's not much relief 93/70 ..again, could be 95. Two big heat days back to back post Augie 20 isn't bad.

Ha! ... I don't remember that one -

..heh, I feel like sleeper left for work before that alarm went off already -

I've heard of this anecdotally ... I wasn't around during that era - There were a couple of events in weeks leading. Logan set a 24-hour snow total record. But 'when' was this so called bust ? Was it the Cleveland Bomb - maybe they originally thought that would end up the coast?? I can tell you, if that Cleveland circumstance had set up shop 30 Mi E of Montauk - maybe that is physically impossible, I dunno. I can't imagine a stalled 953 mb in that space and what it would have done. It also may not have matter(s)(ed)... The Feb 4-7 set up featured a lobing 1050 mb high. So maybe the total pressure differentials are more equal in that arithmetic. Another way to think of it ... maybe without the enormous ambient higher pressure anomaly, Feb 4-7 would have bottomed out deeper. Heh, in the end it's like comparing Ali to Tyson

This oughtin' set up the yokels good and proper for the 3 and 7/8ths Category bomb coming up the coast on September 20 ... No one'll believe it -

Boy ...if there were ever an ominous message written on a wall - that looks like hydro concern for western CT .. It's not complex, either. If this thing slows and meanders N ...it's going to take several hours to do so, in which time we're raining out a tropical PWAT weight. good luck -