Typhoon Tip

Identity politics is 'tribalism' period - ... a lot of which is probably more primal-instinctive, engendered over eons, than people are aware. Yeah that's right - we do it unconsciously, we seek now. Why? Because at a species level of consideration, our advantage over all was formerly our intense social dependency in and of ...duh duh dunnnn 'THE TRIBE' Working together, en masse, we concurred the Sabertooth monsters and brought down the Willy Mammoths, and survived by necessary co-dependency as the weakest, pound for pound warm blooded member in the biological kingdom of prey-predator competition ecology. Other animals are born with the attributes to do so; our "claws" and "teeth" is/was shared information. It took 750,000 years of evolution to do so. The last 500 .. 200 ..and in particular 50 years of techno-sociological emergence ( on the time scales of evolution, a cyber bomb went off) is provisionally secure, and no longer as much so requires the former evolutionary advantage - but it is a voice that cannot be muted, calling from within. Sorry for the ooh-la-la finger snap dialogue, but it's really sort of apropos. The instinctual message that was evolved all along is not be answered by the advantages in modernism. People feel lost, without that community. They can find the tribe. It's a powder keg for dissension and schismatic fracture in the culture, because the internet offers a way for people to find and formulate that sense of tribalism that is missing in their biological imperative - which it is ... The instinct to be in the tribe, is in our genes! But there is no tribe between the well fed individual alone with his/her smart phone, and no sense of challenge - other than what CNN tells you you should be challenged by? I think we are living through an evolutionary turn - it may take the next 50 generations to settle out ... probably after some form of natural ecological failure, war(s) and a cocktail or two population correction and if we make it - some new paradigm of how to be together again, when faced with all these advantages.

this might be more the esoteric metric but .. the 12z NAM FOUS for BTV up there in NW NE ? I almost wonder if they set a high DP ( dew point) record sometimes late Sunday into Monday. 23 to 28 C at their T1 sigma level - yet they have repeating intervals ( 6 -hrlies) with QPF in the bucket straight through that heat. That's like suggestive of raining noon Monday at 87 F - yikes

Sorta yeah, but humans are different? "deer-stung" metaphor may be a bit of an irony in this sense, because Human curiosity - after all - gets us to the moon, where no other species on this planet exhibits and/or operates motivation, to satisfy discovery, so boldly. They are more at guided by built in primal fear triggers that avoid risk based on the corporeal senses of daunting sight, sound, smell..etc.. That, right there in that movie - to me - smacks as just another frontier exploration, overcoming the instinct to "run from the thunder" . In short, he doesn't know any better; we benefit from a risky venture into a film making - lol. Give 'im a few run ins with 1999 May on the south side of OKC, and we probably never would have seen this video made.

It's all relative. Can't predict the future, so we live our lives now, and hope for the best, while we presume the best is not 6 ft under ground in our convenience entitled, stupefied modernism - but that's another excoriation in human failing for another time. Canada would look like they were ahead of the game if this/these "Delta phase-II of operation kill-back" variants make the vaccine numbers less than useful. We wait and see ... Personally, I'm getting 'humorously' suspicious ( call it ... ) of these variances being more potent than the original. That is not typically how Pandemic epidemiology's historically studies demonstrate, per the reads I've come across on the subject matter. Subsequent virus variants amid their genomic descendance are typically less injurious to the host, because it doesn't make sense for the virus to actually kill the host - that academically torpedoes its ability to spread ? hello - That is why Influ A and B are not as deadly as Spanish Flu...etc, and on and so on. They become endemic with less potency,, in following this natural arc. The literature is easy to look up. These so-called variants are moving counter to that model - is this just a first in biological field observation? OR, since the primary version was clearly ( get f'ing real man ) bio-engineered, maybe this DELTA bs didn't mutate from jack shit in actuality - it too was 'accidentally released' Lol accidentally. I mean yeah .. it mutated alright - in a centrifuge.

Truly spectacular high definition cinema vantage right there .. I suspect owes to the advantages of a rare tornado in that region of the world; the less threat-acclimated civility, not experienced enough to have fear and precaution ruin their vantage points - like through a window... or just getting a glimpse of it en route to interior cover before the door slams shut. This guy ? You can tell he's deer-stung mesmerized as he just stands there in the door jam mere feet from the egg-beater -

You don't have to impress me! I've been very clear about my fascination for heat wave synoptics, early detection in modeling and throughout the gestation of events over the years - just as sickly much so as wandering out in a dusty froth of 0 F cryo-hell in busy winds and whirling snow so heavy it's thunderstorm gray during mid day light.

I'm not sure when I averred otherwise - where's that coming from? I don't think I was part of that conversation. LOL Look, ..a bloke gets a new virus. The body responds. If he survives, the body has a 'natural immunity' - right. Who's in contention of that? But, to say that a vaccine is less effective in getting the bloke to the same immunity, that is not true. That's all - Anything else, ..I wasn't involved in that stream of pings -

Hmm interesting those were all before the turn of the Century, a time since features the arrival of the new 594 ridge era

Not to be a dink but yeah ...I wrote a quick post ( for me - haha) last night about this very subject. The non-hydrostatic heights over Long Island are equal or similar from late Sun and particularly Mon thru early Wed, to those over the the Pac NW. We are not maximizing the hydrostatic thickness within that non-hydrostatic ridge bomb. It may be that we can't at our latitude ... not without two suns. But, there is a way that with the sun, together with planetary feed-backs can 'synergistically' get the deed done. And I really feel we are dodging extraordinary bullets when these 594 dam extremes emerge. Playing with fire heh How? We haven’t observed a true Sonoran heat release in recent years. One that injects a pithy 22.5+C 850 mb, well mixing payload into one of these, not since 594 dm become the new 588. These tall heights can do a lot of damage with ‘hone grown' cumulative thermal and consecutive days - like next week’s type. That's not to reduce 94/69 significance -that's ugly. But I wonder if something special lurks this summer, based in part upon early trends, in part upon other super telecon indicators with AAM and relaxed hemispheric velocities mapping over top a La Nina hangover. One of theses times we may hang a 25C 850 mb air mass over ORD with sights on BTV to PHL and Boston, but timing better with one of these atmospheric Tibetan Plateaus next week.

Not to steal the Pac NW's sunshine in this heat discussion... - it really interests me that the non-hydrostatic heights over Long Island ( ~ ) are destined/forecast to equal those astounding tropopause Tsar-bomba bulging heights in the Pac NW. Yet we are modest in the heat genesis. A some of that is because the hydrostatics integration takes energy to put theta-e content into the column, thus shrinking the V. That's not lowering distinction of the enormity of the event out west; weather they have DP to content with or not, above 98 F it really doesn't matter if the wind is still, the sun full, and one's acclimation is temperate. I feel we are/have been dodging extraordinary bullets here in the east - this isn't the first time when where one of these ridges emerged here, eclipsed in recognition it may be by some, ..owing to the fact that 94/70 is ugly but not as unusual. Playing with fire - Here's the deal, we have a method of dying hard here. It's called Sonoran heat release, where synoptic changes in the Pacific relay into western N America, sometimes dislodges and injects a pithy 22.5+C 850 mb, well mixing payload into one of these non-hydrostatic ridges - where by the thickness ( which is the DP integral) are thus free to expand. We have not observed a Sonoran heat release event since 594 dm become the new 588. These tall heights can do a lot of damage with ‘hone grown' cumulative thermal stowing from consecutive days in their own rights - like next week’s type will be from N VA to D.E.M. But I wonder if something special lurks this summer, as we are appearing to be in a post La Nina hang-over which tends to favor AAM/subtropical ridge robustness during warm season, and already, ..we are seeing them verify. One of theses times, we may hang a 25C at 850 mb over ORD with sights on BTV to PHL and Boston, and let us hope it is not timing with one of these atmospheric Tibetan Plateau sized ridges opening the garage door to park that delivery inside, because that would be like a "Hellraiser" scene at the prom if that happens.

"generally accepted" is tantamount to urban legend, first of all. Half of common wisdom is in fact 100% fallacy. Where there was intimation that one was better than the other, that is the wrong - we don't know that. That's conjecture and that's fine - that what we do here. Heh. I mean it's all good. But I also like the other point there, that this isn't wasn't an organically occurring virus in nature ( as evidence presently stands ) - so, it is unwise to assume an organically occurring immune system can mount a proportional and winning response. I mean, getting into sci fi ... but, it's a matter of time when human "genius" out does nature entirely, and creates some dastardly thing where there can be no response ... But that's a digression -

'Conventional wisdom' ...what wisdom is that exactly ? Vitamin C from an orange vs a pill ... no difference. The chemistry has no distinction in biologic processes. Likewise, the triggering of a T and B lymphocytic response is no different. There's no virtuosity policeman in your blood telling your T and B cells, ' Heh, go easy. You don't have to study for that test -it's only half going to effect your grade' Lol. Also, the whole of the this argument about nature versus nurture in this case has a fundamental logical point of contention ( if not flaw ) to me. Namely, this outbreak and subsequent Pandemic appears ever so, to have an origin in an unnaturally occurring phenomenon. So, shouldn't it be reasonable to question whether a naturally occurring systemic response might be insufficient ? mmm. It seems there would need a proportionate angle of attack - like ... an equally/or better man-made vaccine weapon as a mitigator. In short, it is okay to question natural immune response capacity to actually respond to something that was not natural ( as in inorganically ) in its origin. You know, ..frankly, I want to credit humanity for getting three distinct vaccine forms into Beta workability so fast, like way ahead of the scientific arc timing for these things, as all a conceit of modern tech and for now, ..fine. Let's go with that. But maybe a memo of its origin and how to countermand was also passed into the backdoor of these labs - something that would be possible if they already knew how to do it. haha

This whole Delta variant 'quite dangerous' narrative - is that as in, 'more dangerous' ( potency/virulence across the gestation of infectious ability to illness) than the standard pathogen we've all grown to so adore ?

Heh.... you mean like the South Park creator's movie? Where they end up going into France and annihilating the entire city over a single terrorist loose in the society there. Socially/politically charged back-handed commentary is their specialty, delivered in the immoral humor much of the time. Go into Florida and sociopathically murder hundreds to get one douche - mm... maybe. LOL "America, F yeah!"

Yesterday's utopic bath being matched by today's dystopic bath ... talk about climate balancing! ...what a piece of shit out there today, and oh so diametrical to yesterday's top 10. Diamond to dog shit, boom boom. Series tied at 1-1 I have to admit, this is more pessimistic than I thought - but, ...mm, I chose to accept the NAM RH fields. What an asshole. But that had Logan under 50% ceiling hgt RH by noon, and with 85% in the bottom .. that all looked like partial sun in the afternoon. Not seemin' very likely looking at trends. Well see. I've been fooled into back-peddling before. So, cool bottom dweller day until further notice, and looking around, ...it cookie-cutter SNE and some parts of Central quite precisely. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Here's the thing, despite the underpinning tone of dread to this, there something very refreshingly nice about that cool air. It appears looking at Sat and sfc obs that the vortex - which was rather well modeled actually ...- weakly closed off along the warm front will delay the warm front from coming through today. In fact, it may delay it to never coming through. The weak backside flow will pin it and instead of moving through it will just disappear through Sunday a slow death. It was tough to glean these behaviors out of the charts because the sensitivity was less than standard isobaric intervals at times, making matters look just as likely to be false. interesting -

...yeah, in more practical reality, this thing has got litigatin' madness written all over it. Building company(s) and their indirect webbed entanglements et al, right into the governmental inspection offices are all getting probed.

Yet if all this is true .. some interest group still made their money - This is why the super advanced, interstellar species have zero interest in first contact LOL. And... as an afterthought, it is why if they ever did come around, it would be because this planet is an attractive target for whatever-reasons that have nothing to do with that which is merely just dust in their way of their accessing it - because the former zero interest precludes them having any arrival based upon peaceful introduction of humanity to the VIP club hidden among the stars. That leaves only one other purpose for showing up - testicle stew Good sci fi right there - totally plausible and closed logic that adds up. Yes, it is true: 1 + 1 = douchebag species

Status quo from the guidance overnight wrt to the non-hydrostatic ( heights ) aspect of synoptic evolution, alone - that aspect alone is rather remarkably consistent across multiple guidance sourcing, too. GGEM .. Euro .. GFS and UKM, all place the atmospheric equiv of the Tibetan Plateau over the Bite region E of NJ, and anchor it there from Monday, maximizing Tuesday ...then they begin varying on the evolution of this ridge evolution there after, as a Lakes trough tries to descend along about 90W toward the end of the week. That then sets up either a Bahama Blue ( finally! ..will this ever happen?) along the EC, as similarly, it doesn't have any mechanical basis to move/propagate its wave space through the actual flow, or, it weakens faster and doesn't construct the S conveyor east of it at all. All this prior to another continental heat surge/event that is lurking the American -based telecon long lead - this isn't over after this week. .. but cross that bridge. Re the heat in the foreground; they are fiddling with details that offset impacts. The GFS thinks that an actual cold front will arrive Tuesday by 12z ... Given all, that seems less likely to me. It appears to be either uniquely onto something, or, artificially amplifying the eastern Canadian exit embedded middle tropospheric velocities, with jet shrapnel vort maxima it then says, oh, now I have to BD to atone for the mass flux ... This is an example of how its consummately over supplying cold heights in the Ferrel side of the polar jet gets it into trouble. Even subtle surplus tends to speed up the flow due to ending up on the next interval with more gradient then the other guidance.. It sets up faux mechanical feed-backs As a result, ends up unrealistically placing a west-east boundary from CLE to NYC underneath a suppressive/preventing closed 594 dm heights. The Euro of course doesn't do any of that hinky accelerating/power enhancement crap over eastern Canada, but it's up to something else. It has an interesting tendency after Monday to suddenly dry out the DP. We end up 98/62 at places like ASH, NH. Hot enough ... But, it's unclear why it is doing that when at the time there is a 400 mile wide tube of 70 to 76 DPs from IA to NY in a pressure pattern that should bring that conveyor right fluid continuation in, with almost no inhibition to do so. Something in the physics of this thing is lopping that eastern end off on Tue/Wed, which if so... booya! It would mitigate the risk from this thing on those two days. Maybe there is something to the GFS in the symbolic voice, as both these guidances are picking Tuesday to blindly introduce - there could be something about to come into focus, but I suspect it is coincident noise. The GGEM is the class clown regardless of any day of the year, but fwiw - it doesn't do either of these things. It just limits it's 2-meter temperature to 88 F at PHL-NYC-BOS which appears unrealistic relative to its total manifold -synoptics. I dunno - I suspect of the three oddities above, the GFS is the least plausible correction. Then the GGEM ... Euro.

It does ... but, it really interests me that the non-hydrostatic heights over LI are equal or event higher - I just really feel we are dodging extraordinary bullets when these emerge. Playing with fire We haven’t observed a true Sonoran heat release inject a pithy 22.5+C 850 mb, well mixing payload into one of these, not since 594 dm become the new 588. These tall heights can do a lot of damage with ‘hone grown cumulative thermal and consecutive days - like next week’s type. But I wonder if something special lurks and one of theses times 25C will be 850 over ORD with sights on BTV to PHL and Boston, but timing when we’re bulging the tropopause like we will with that atmospheric Tibetan Plateau next week. You wait

I mean yeah .. I applaud our local AFD gang here, but wonder ( still ) why CPC wasn't informed - Highlights... * Upward trend in temperature and humidity levels through the weekend into next week. Dangerous heat possible Monday through Wednesday.

Which way ... Let's rejoin this discussing circa next Thursday, when we've just put together 4 consecutive daily averages that will ( most likely..) have been +15 by nights, and probably that much by day, to close out the month. I'll be curious how June stacks up at HFD vs Logon. Scott's been aware that Logan instrumentation may need a tuning/calibration. I don't know if HFD, ORH or PVD are putting up contenders -

not sure on tomorrow... I could see it doing that, altho maybe 65 DP .. but splitting hairs. I almost wonder if the front has just enough residual convergence along it to spark convection ...Regional lifted index is like -2 by 20z the rest of the way on the NAM's recent runs, so it's unstable in a denser theta-e - those would rain hard too. The 700 and 500 RH is opened up < 60 % indicating it's tomorrow will have decent amount of afternoon sun to add to CAPE, in a noticeably different air mass than today - but getting that boundary layer DP advected in overnight does feel strata and foggy yea. Matter of if that burns off mid day - gotta figure it does under a June microwave emitter in the sky

Mmm, yeah it transitions into more a continental heat deal by late Sunday - perhaps Saturday into Sunday .. but it's a WSW inferno by Monday. But speak of the devil, this is really cool seeing these CBs moving N and approaching the S. Coast as that cold front has begun moving back toward the EC as the warm front above... I am nearly 200 miles N of this and I can see these side like anvils on the southern horizon, knowing it is tropical air coming, while the dash thermometer reads 72 and the DP is about 48 Time sensy but here's the loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I suspect history, given time, will define that era not so much as a 'dope in Washington,' but more of a reflection the judgement of people that made it all possible ( constituency) and the feckless nature of his rampart of enablers once he took that seat and office. Look up the term 'Kakistocracy' - the definition in greater percentage is apropos. This was not a political distinction that won him that seat - not really. It was a state of morality and intelligence, combined; one that the failures won't admit to, all the way to the grave, too. he was kind of an impish 'bugs bunny' - he really was much more of a distracting puppet entertainer, for/while any interests connected could then benefit from toppling certain institutions that have been stressing their proxy in the marco econ fight - those that will come back, and will eventually place those interests entirely on the wrong side of history -