Typhoon Tip

42 .. 44 most sites within a couple clicks for the coldest so far. I'm thinking 37 .. 38 tonight out around the rural countryside for some car top soft (mix) frost and very cold water depending which side of the upper 30s. Typical climo achievers will probably bottom out 34 Shot across the bow air mass. However, it is very localized in the synoptic-relative scales. It's really like a "tuck" scenario, but doing it in the 500 mb circulation manifold. Quite likely a "benefit" of the -NAO. But it's all contained right over New England, as though something really really wants to enable the using social media into dopamine nostalgia, if not sticking their heads in a paper bag like a cat hiding from a tail-puller while it's entire ass-end is exposed. To the cat, all they see is the reality and faux safety inside the bag. Only here, people are ready to argue it's over - whatever that means. I mean, summery pith heat? Yeah, that was gone weeks and weeks ago... But an above normal sea all around, and not very autumn migrant, that is your ass end. Sorry, ..this isn't picking on anyone sentimentality - it's me hating it really. I don't like endless vague indian summer falls that recurve hurricanes "against climo" like this year is doing. That's the other gripe ... wtf is Sam doing that track into a -NAO field? It's the narrowness of this stupid "tuck" shit going - that trough is bobbing straight S and out around NS ( that close by..) the mid levels vectors stay south. I mean, that's like needing record breaking to keep the Lions losing by way of a 66 yard historic field goal - what need' to happen to keep a region butt boning tries patients ( commiserating with cane enthusiasts here - ) .. otherwise, Sam 'should have' ended up around the outer Bahamas. The pattern looks incredible boring moving forward for at least a week ...maybe 10 days. Maybe climbing modestly abv normals as the time elapses. Good for ogling Nature's artistry ... That's something. Euro stalks Sam S-SE of Nova Scotia on this last run - hmm... perhaps an homage if not correction to the above weirdness. -NAO with bee-line obsessive ass-haulin' recurved canes is anti-correlated. Be that as it may... maybe the Euro's like, "woa, woa. Wait. Ah. I don't know guys. I think if we want torment and asshole toward storm enthusiasts, we should really rather stall Sam - that way we don't violate pan-dimentional physics, while simultaneous taunting.." I figure it's just a matter runs before the other guidance get that memo and agree. Otherwise, it's watching the Patriots maximize the possible extent of humiliation and embarrassment in front of the most telegraphed global specter generated millions of eyes since the Great Tunguska Blast of 1908. Meanwhile the Red Sox relentlessly guide their way out of the playoffs by losing to the two teams in the League that are holding up the bottom of the cellar floor. Have a nice day

Zactly echoing my own fan base warning, above … over along Rt 1 there’s a billboard that now audaciously informs, ”The OWL is no longer wise without his GOAT”

Heh Jesus You ever think about it …the number of bacteria on earth is estimated to be around 5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, and basically an uncountable vastness in viruses. They can be found everywhere from the top of the Himalayas to deep in the planetary lithosphere. And we think we’re ever sanitary. Masks and OCD hand washing … whatever Reality check: Earth is no different than a sewage cistern

what was the season total snow map in that winter ... ? I may be wrong, but I thought like SE VT and S NH and up along Rt 2 weren't really hugely snowy. It was a mostly a coastal winter I thought.

someone, some where ... will put a 100 bucks down on the Pats over in Vegas, and when the Pats exploit Tampon Bay's number 28th "stanked" defense and pull off the improbable, kids'll go to college

Right ...we had 30" after compacting by weight at entry into the cutter episode that winter, and the first claimed 15"... then the 2nd, 10" ...then the 3rd, 5" ...leaving essentially zero level. Banks were at least brown and black lol

Well... save for 3 weeks of complete snow pack annihilation in the middle. It really wasn't end-to-end. But, that said ...it was majority not doubt.

Mm... I tend to agree with F*cker and Spaz ... My impression of their general take fits best with my own memory over the last 5 .. 7 years. In short, the organization made it hard on the QB. The Patriots were stingy in putting the pieces around what is likely the best QB in the history of the game...beginning ~ 7 years ago, and it was a motif of stinginess that seemed to only to get worse - almost like "souring the milk" began to then cottage immediately after the deflate-gate. To me, that all means, 'team to encourage out' out said franchise QB. There's too much odor of professional, and ego, grind-smoke during and since that era. Plus, TB was asserting a lot more control (due to intangibles and this that and the other thing ) over an organization that is run by a ego maniac ( most likely ... arrogant at minimum and couldnt stand it ) ... that's just when the marriage entered divorce proceedings. - the evidence is difficult to ignore .. ... the organization made it difficult for the QB. The "why" in doing so, could be boobery at an organizational level, but all things being equal ,...mm, I suspect it was a calculated method (longer view ) to take back control of the company. Unfortunately, they are draining all that cache they built over 18 years of traditional winning, because .. heh, fans have short memories. The more these weeks tick by and they put out a product that is frankly excruciating when not embarrassing to watch, they are going to get hurt by that. But also, legacies are on the line now because the more this goes on, the more this looks really, really bad for management above the field, all included. Particularly when the talent squeezed out has a super bowl ring since.

1995-1996 appeared to be a heavily -AO/-NAO influenced, which are source/forcing that are disconnected from the Pacific in the "direct" modulate sense. There is probably an indirectly coupling with the PNA to the NAO, as argued in negative correlation; the wave dispersion transmitte down stream --> there's non-linear ( transitive ) wave breaks that occur that sends the NAO ridging into form. ...The general neg correlation used to be demonstrated in the CDC matrix/correlation table. Unfortunately, that source may not even exist anymore. There was a budget crunch imposed by the last administration's sweeping coup d'état attempt by undermining institutions in general - they were definitely going to try and kill any source with the word Climate, while making America great again. Anyway... the coupled modulation on whatever the Pacific sent, after the lag ...makes it difficult to know how much of the Pacific really contributed, when the -AO only partially shares domain space with the NAO and thus so is also in partially in disconnect. But the AO appeared to send/load the Canadian shield with or without the EPO at times, and then the NAO helped bleed that south. In fact, according to the monthly means ( which is an average, granted - ) the AO was more anomalously depressed than even the NAO, which is lauded as the primary factor in the Dec cold anomaly and thus attending snow surplus in latter November through mid January. I think the AO is under evaluated back then.

It may be the upfront expenditure and availability. Some people are in these small homes because they can't be someplace else... They may still have a mortgage too. So, their contribution may not be feasible when putting in central air into a home that doesn't even have ducting infrastructure is probably something they can't afford without saving pennies for 10 years - which can be done, but people also have to live lives ...otherwise, wtf are we doing this thing called life for. you know? abject poverty doesn't stop at Section 8 auxiliary or worse housing...it's slackens gradually from bottom up.

'Art imitating cultural' What you've described ( I suspect you know already...) is the classic moving arc of the narcissist. Maybe that's all the author of the song is after, ..that specific aspect through song. But, it's also possible that since western cultures appear to have a swelling problem with narcissism and entitlement, it makes sense the artistry reflects that, too.

I did not want the reader to focus on the HC expansion shit... I put that in there later on, as a personal winter hypothesis, granted... But I spent much, much more energy trying to elucidate the simple premise that something has changed, "that part cannot be controverted" That's what bears the most relevancy. ... To reiterate: forget the reason why. Lol, I know it would be useful to know 'why' but it is what it is. The ENSO's have demonstrated less apparently effective in modulation forcing in the concerned times - the aspect of the ENSO not reflecting on the pattern is ubiquitous in climate ambit, by the way. That begins to crack the foundation of their reliability/institutional method confidence. Sorry, it does ...or should. It's not absolute or total though. There just needs to be a caveat emptor that the straight up ENSO method has proven not as reliable since circa 2001. Now, if we wanna get into sample size ..okay, it's only the last three. Sure. However, that is also occurring during a "hockey stick" time of CC as noted. Usually, when something smells like a cigar its because someone is smoking one.

Not a huge fan myself.... One has to research - it turns out - or tbey'll end up buying a unit that roars like testing at emission controls. I mean it is easy to impulse buy a 180$ unit, but that's what you get if you do ... ghastly above white noise, window-casing buzzers. Good luck sleeping with a unit that roars, but then also rumbles whenever the compressor kicks on. You end up wrapping a sweaty pillow around your head, anything to back-drop the sound toward a more pleasing sort of white noised decibel. There are "quiet" running units, apparently. I think it's an obsolescence scandal. I mean think about it ... they have perfected the science and in turn, manufacturing of air conditioning to the point where they know precisely how annoying to the point of agony they can "force" you into spending 600$ on the 5000 BTU'er. Dicks... So they got the parts for cheap layin' around, snap 'em together in a facility out side of Hong Kong for 2.00/hr ... toss 'em out on the shelves for a buck-80, taking the longer 'extortion' view that you'll then be successfully driven battier than two Tuesdays in the same week of Hades enough to mortgage your kid's future on the high tech version that really isn't any more money for them to manufacture. Yeah, Capitalism works. Also, I am not entirely convinced these louder, cheaper shelf emptier units are the most power efficient. I mean, when the window casing and walls vibrate when the compressors kick on, that is electrical energy being converted into mechanical energy ...which means, that is a LOT of electricity being used in order to resonate the f'n physical edifice of the home. SO, ...my goal, prior to next summer's CC/GW New England heat apocalypse, in having no choice, is to give up my left testicle for adoption and spend 1000$ seeking the quiet sanity of the "higher grade" version. Usually ( actually..) I just deal with the heat because of the loudness factor, until no acclimation is sufficient and I cave. Summers appear to be getting DP hotter anyway, keeping nights elevated..etc. So if can find one that doesn't sound like the anus of Logan must be fartin' at the other end of the room... blah blah

As the last two completed cycles of warm --> cool ENSO phases have globally demonstrated, spanning the last 10 .. 12 years ( with increasing coherency over time) the N. hemispheric, wintertime circulations have been increasingly challenged to objectively fit into the climatology of ENSO events - the assuming pattern basis. Whether anyone wants to believe, admit, can understand, or some combination of those requiring they come up with some other plausible explanation that doesn't include Hadley Cell expansion, bears less relevancy for me. In other words, forget HC for the moment; those seasons above are difficult results to explain. That is paramount, and ...probably IS more the relevancy. It's emerging consistency, also looks reproducible and less like 'noise'. Logic: those "break-downs" in the ENSO, vs observed circulation structures should immediately connote the circulation is unable to respond to ENSO as readily in recent decades - regardless. This needs to be factored. I understand, the alternative to the old standard institutional guides leaves only questions. And ... the elephant in the room, those that cannot adapt means, 'no confident insight.' Unfortunately, regardless of cause, or reluctance to capitulate to any offered reasons why ..something is still interfering. That's just a reality that cannot really be controverted. Personal winter hypothesis: I lean toward whatever weak or moderate Nina transpires, it probably will more at transiently jive with patterns. Coincidentally, while the pattern at those times happens to be passing through the idealized state: *but* really en route to some other destination. Those destinations may tend to be none static, with unusually quick modulations between (-)(+) PNAP of various amplitude. I do admit, I visualize an expanding/resistant HC, compressing south under the boreal winter heights, generates so much velocity saturation into the flow, this exceeds the stable wave-mechanics at R-wave scales, and sets the pattern into frequent motion. ...- the entire hemisphere acts like the 'unmanned fire hose.' I realize some think the HC is only observable in the autumn/linger... but that does not mean the HC is not there. The gradient surplus and the speed up of westerly ambient velocity IS the HC still lurking.. It becomes less a latitude distinction; the spatial layout is 'converted' into velocity increases. In that sense, it's there and effecting - It is really as though the northern periphery of the HC termination into the westerlies begins to subsume the ENSO gradient, whereby because it is "buried" in that sense, this may explain the absence in observed ENSO forcing - I really believe in a nut shell, that is why these ENSO seasons are demonstrating lesser coherency on patterns. Now ... none of these above is a statement related to how much snow a region gets. If anything, it is a statement that probably argues for less chance of any one temperature anomaly distribution to persist. The winter in the whole nation may be +1 to +2 ( say...) but it may be -1 for a single month in the GL-NE region, with the other months being +2 with, both having at least one distinctive cold wave despite averaging that way... So the winter could be remembered as so-so ( for winter enthusiasts) ..not bad.. couple decent storms and a smattering of mixers. But not a good grade because there were too many thaws. That type of characterization would fit the wild unstable pattern look. Having said that, caveat emptor: I suck at seasonal weather forecasting. I am much better at specific era risk assessment. I can visualize and see interesting things out there week 3, and have proven that ability many times in the last 15 years. But, that hardly defines a season. The best one can do is attempt clad and cogently derived reasoning, then ... wait for fractals to devise a destiny that evinces some attempt was also lurking to leave us without any explanation - haha lol

oh.. well, didn't look like Sam went through that sequence... It looked to me like dry air got entrained, and then I checked CIMS SAL layout out and the thing is plowing right through dry air, which since it looks more like that's what was occurring... Meanwhile, TPC is mentioning dry air evidences in their discussions. But, whichever .wtf cares ERC, dry dry air... blah blah, pick reason to stick an intern on the mids tropical desk for data entry/cataloguing .. it's probably peaked

Um ... what does "8-9/10" mean ?

May be related to the same reason why it was supposed to be mostly cloudy and showering last Saturday, but it was a blue bird 77 F sunny day with no wind and angels weeping with tears of joy - Automations and convenience therefrom inexorably leads to stupification ...and it starts to show up with systemic failures in subtle ways. Seriously ...it's immediately turning clear behind this warm front that apparently doesn't exist at WPC ..when looking at all synoptic metrics currently ongoing there is probably a diffused one smearing through.

We need a killing frost ... I have never seen a lawn growing, mosquito harvesting ad nauseam linger so fu-ing late in a calendar year, ever! It's miserable in broad sunlight. The tepidity of the sun is not warding them off anymore...so they're bobby around the knees and napes immediately - not a euphemism. The moment one leaves the door, their whir and stings also psychosomatically induce one to start itching by pure association. I mean... this does not happen this late in the year. And, my lawn is growing like bamboo, all species. Thick deep lush green that feels like walking on a mattress - I'm sorry... but these are like metrics that are subtle and not really thought of as very alarming, and they ultimately probably are not,... but that is climate change allowing these aspect to do this.

It's been coughing dry air though ... it may have peaked. By the time it clears the band of 'quasi'SAL toxic layer out there, it'll be moving over slightly less OHC ...so it's less likely it'll be Cat 4 ... still, a slow moving Cat 2..3 will telegraph some swells, sure - Meanwhile, the MDR is buck-shot with new developments. It's getting late in the year for those.. Usually, the MDR starts to shut down pretty fast into October. So on Sept 27 there's time against that climate clock but that latter curve is descending. As an aside, I was wondering if the MDR might have a later season than normal, just having that frequency all curving very early. Yup...my feel/take on the Tropics for 2021 moving forward would have to entertain via home grown, or home grown fusion/hybrid deals. Altho - Opal was a cat 5 briefly in the Gulf in mid October so ... that's a relatively rarer scenario tho. "Ida" was likely the main show. MDR's, even if so ...it just gets almost impossible to relay a laminar track without disruption.

Meh... cool pocket island in a sea of above normal geopotential heights ... But I tell you, ...I do still think October see either a synoptic snow event, or an air mass supportive of that... after the 15th, followed by return to +% to +15 daily anomalies returning - bit of a range there but I suspect, despite all institutionally accepted seasonal teleconnector methods, the HC is going to f'k all of them up. And no.. it is not AMO doing that -

Does anyone think this winter will be extraordinarily bad ... ? like, top 5 if not the lowest snow total in the collective basin history, marred often by near/at historic positive temperature anomaly episodes ... mmm ?? It seems there's been what 15 winters since 1950 that were "just" very bad, to the point of being almost shockingly so to those that want winters...and gritting teeth with guilt for those that don't, and I bet you dimes to donuts ... those winters are 0 -15 in winter forecast - i.e., not a single soul has ever forecast those. LOL And I so I ask, who has the ballz

I'm having trouble with the purchase price of the Euro ... That flow construct is completely convoluted, and that typically increases modeling error - but mostly.. it increases the probability of non-continuity in future runs anyway. Just my own observation ... that run tries to increase the geopotential gradients everywhere, between adjacent ridge and trough nodes, while keeping the wave lengths nebular and summer like. We'll see

Yeah... "Candygory 4"

Btw, I didn't throw this post a like merely because it implicates a funner more appealingly dramatic PARA solution. LOL. Seriously, we've been palpably observing so egregiously bad - and consistent to the point of predictive ass vomit - performance coming out of the Euro products suites in the tropics...for years, that it baffled explanation. Yeah, okay - just since 2018 .. .BULLSHIT by the way. They're partially marketing the reader there, because I remember back before then, it had a stingy genesis tendency - it did well "after" the cyclones materialized, but never had to absorb the guilt of false spin ups. Ha ha, for that fetish we could always rely upon the Canadian 'cumulus cloud --> cat 5' in 20 minutes ... Jokes aside, Johnny-come-lately shows up and it's, "okay, other models, here's what we're going to do with what you worked so hard and risked your reputation and succeeded in seeing.." Ha. It always pissed me off and it definitely predated 2018 ...sorry, it does. But, whatever. ECMWF is directly and non ambiguously stating that they are addressing the problem and as such, it would be really really awesome if that model stops finally hangin' it's ass over the Atlantic punch bowl and ruining the parties -

Having said all that to MJO ... The 00z runs ...yuck. Sort of abolished the elephant in the room, yesterday, that was a continuing along a trend to build features into an orientation that might offer pornographic hope to blue-balled storm enthusiasts... These 00z runs were proved yesterday was just another tease. It seems to me that two aspect swooped in ( and it is true in all guidance - which is interesting... It's not like just the Euro or GFS ..etc) and broke that trend continuity - The substropical ridge helping to guide SAM west over the short to early mid range, came in modeled weaker by just oh so crucial amount, that it starts initiating polar track jumps in small increments earlier on the track guidance comparing previous runs. And it's not a lot, but is still definitive and crucially so. By the time Sam gets west of 70 W, ...it's outside the climate 'key slot' ... This slopes off chances of TCs making far enough W at steep angle. That's A... B, the entire manifold of the synoptic construct from 100W to 70 W has changed all at once. The U/A/cut off is now more of a long wave trough like right on 70 W. That, in its self, ends it on a dime - no further consideration. None. Over. Both those are suspect in the objective sense. Both those are entirely reasonable and likely to occur in the abject subjective sense - LOL. sorry, but this method has merit - it just f'n does. No but in the objective sense, "continuity breaks" are always suspect until more runs come out and give substance by accumulative confidence. Duh, but also, the sampling of the subtropical ridge out there over the lower Sargasso Sea ...mm. Okay - we'll see. The other aspect that is obvious is that this whole ordeal is still playing out deep in the mid range or even early extended, so there's modulation time in the runs.