Typhoon Tip

I'm curious how much of these seasonal nadir stops are guided by the vagaries of the AO index leading... That's obviously a very complex question. Multi-faceted factoring, most likely, determines. Such as momentum under air - as in, SST and ice thickness, be it solar sensitivity ... cloud permutations... and holy hell. But, perhaps the general negative versus positive index mode may encapsulate and thus correlate in general. A season's stop-loss takes place whether higher or lower AO. Positive modes of the AO are warm for mid latitudes, but are cold inside the arctic domain. Vice versa for negative index modes. We all know that... Those that don't want the Earth to die from GW ... would rather the summer be a +AO mode, and the winter to be oscillating between the ( - ) and ( + ) states...and on and sardonic so on.. lol. But more seriously, when using the CPC history the curve of the AO spent the ballast of the summer positive. It did briefly go negative around the first of September, but only briefly so... If then considering momentum and transience amid the index, it may not be enough to significantly deviate from an established seasonal vector to keep the domain conserved.. I mean comparing over recent years .. perhaps 'offsetting' the bottoming momentum of the physical ice from realizing how far it 'could have' plumbed.

Not a bad take there, no - heh, in fact, it's almost like, 'well yeah' It sort of goes along with that "flop direction" aspect I was musing about the other day - and have since it become more evidenced to be warmer, dating a few years now. It's interesting though, because the talking point was surrounding the tendency for modeled 'marginal' snow/rain events to tend verify more liquid rather than frozen/freezing, when some 20 years ago they tended to verify the latter. Maybe that tendency should be not just observable in model verification vs event profile/characters with ptype, but noticeable in the general bath of temperature management. Honestly, as obvious as that that seems now that I think about it, I haven't actually looked for that. Maybe when modeling a 'less than certain' cool versus neutral air mass, the verification tendency will 'flop' toward more neutral. But I guess in stricter terms, if that were/is the case ...neutral impies climo, and it would be the "first" september air mass, either way, that wasn't bootlegged off of Labrador rectal spew -

Isn't that some 2-weeks behind schedule ? Poking around the web for 'average date of first -' it's hard to tell though. Even sciency URL stops tend to white-wash ( no pun intended ) around a smear of times frames related to regions. I guess there's no way to be that discrete about the when-frost metric - ha! But it seems most agree, the midriff elevations of the Green/Whites back through the Adiron's, and up amid the NW chunk of Maine in general, are espoused as September 15... With the remainder of "New England Oct 1," I am not a big fan of couching Willmantic CT with Manchester NH but it is what it is...

... If it happens ? Obviously that question is built in and you likely intend for that - just sayn' But, we have been dealing with late mid range amplitude biases for a month in model behavior... Ridging and troughing for that matter. If/when factoring in, I wouldn't be surprised if the "cool" ends up being more "shot across the bow" And no .. this now is getting "synoptically lucky" with BD pull ins off the Labrador ...that doesn't count as the latter. We got this all July and get this on the surface of the sun in this shit hole geology

Just some abstractions and observations - I don't get that 'special' sort of rube and Taro card feeling about this season ... which, now that we are officially at the apex of, watching over a buckshot spray bullshit out there ..it's sort of not lending to any gathering in those creepy crawling sensations of grandeur yet to come. It's not the most responsible or 'empirically' scientific method, no. But it is shockingly competitive with Colorado State University, nonetheless... at least, I think -haha I was actually reading some other papered work that was integrating this HC expansion shit ... you know, one turn of phrase that stuck with me as interesting was similar to, "..With the expanding Hadley Cell, the circulation definition of it is weaker while growing in areal dimension..." (not a direct quote but in spirit) If that is true, it may explain - or offer a trigger point for hypothesis... - why these systems go from TD to Category 4 or 5 ...with fewer sustaining Cat 2. I'm sure there are those that do... (calm down knee jerk skeptics). Talkin' tendencies.. If we wanna put it another way, systems either sputter, or tend to go crazy, with fewer in-betweens. It seems that the increased entropy within the confines of the HC space, means that crippling developmental mechanics may be replaced rather abruptly by excessively favorable regimes, ..huge swings in potential, like all at once? Champagne corked and ready to go, they are just waiting to be released. Entropy means discord and fractal/chaos prone. Lower organization in a systemic framework. ... I.e., increased variability. Such that the models might be more likely to have a robust 95L, then as we get closer ... shear materializes more so from the former "uncertainty principles" - not the same as that of QM. .. Meanwhile, the handling of the westerlies E of the Rockies to NE of Bermuda is particularly abysmal right now in the guidance. ..It's not just the HC entropy itself By virtue of that - likely - being true, it would mean the amorphous trajectory/boundaries where it releases identity into the westerlies, is also increasingly error prone.

96L ... simpler terms, the hot Invest coding on that may have been inflated some all along. NHC can't really really be that certain with ROA to PWM setting by-and-by waiting for an over due Climate Change tsunamis of their own. Longer thoughts: It is not difficult to surmise the belated/apparent limiting factors in its developing. Shear Looking at the various sat presentations/loops therein .. the anvil debris streamers off the CB exhausts are all stripping away toward the NW-N-NE ...with no radial pull toward the southern arc. That means that it is imposing from SW to NE across the zygote circulation, and it is/has been doing so in the guidance ever since. I'm not sure if this is true, but observing NHC's Invest labeling practices in recent years: It exposes a suspicious pattern. It really does appear they've adopted a policy that is "hand-cuffed to whatever guidance indicates" modus operandi over recent years. They seldom trigger an Invest based upon now, or live observation methodology. Some kind of super cluster of modeling pops one out of the ether, then they do so. I guess the days of waiting for observation methods to suggest a circulation might be coalescing, are gone. They feel their models are formulatively accurate enough at emerging these regions of interest, so why wait that out. Or, it could just be that the modeling tech has just become that good, and they are actually competing with the old observation methods - and probably losing, too. But one can see their headaches with 96L. Days ago ...when this modeling was all there was and this was more relevant, civility lurked immediately astride the 96L drift... tauntingly, unknowingly what were its destinies. I'm sure at the time there was a handful of ensemble members we don't get to sate our addiction by seeing ( LOL ), pummeling into the NY Bite with Cat 3 ..and on and so on. Those outlier model ensemble members cannot be absolutely ruled out. Meanwhile, the consensus was that shear might be present ... So, they compromised, and goosed 96L all the way to the blood soaked OMG X, look-out, to raise awareness, bide time, all the while the more likely solution of a big open bag of meaningless runs its course. This thing also - however - has a bit of a suggestion of partially transitioning into a hybrid or some thing SE of NS...and some guidance pig deepen it there while stalling it...and that's probably a worthy headache result for shipping/Marine interests, so there's that. 95L ..back farther out there in the MDR, sort of evinced their pattern of labeling invests. The Euro ( of all guidance ..headscratcher) was torquing up 95L almost immediately upon leaving the coast Sierra Leone, over 10 days ago. Why back, it was consistent too - that D9 ... then 8 ... 6 days out, when that emerge off the coast of west Africa, it was going to be aggressive and coherent, becoming a deeper TC right away. NHC began yelllow-X with that 10/80 type ratio for short vs longer term development odds, when 95L was still scheduled 4 days outfrom leaving the coast - that's a pretty long lead for an Invest. But, it helped that other guidance had picked up on it, too. Then, it didn't evolve. It's still tending to be a weakly rotating gyre with heavily shear tipped convection stripping off toward the west... and over that time they've swelled its odds through red, and now settled back to orange. You can see across the behavior that they are "sort of" allowing the observation method to invalidate the models from that direction ... and since this thing has proven beneath guidance panache, ..it's kind of interesting.

Blocking is mainly important in the antecedent intervals for cold-loading the pattern. Otherwise you don’t want them actively exerting nearby when the west times injecting S/Ws or that exertion typical means suppression/..negative interference

Does anyone know of any free sites that cover the West Pacific Oscillation ?

Yeeeah ...I know. my thing is 'tipping point' has a built in aspect to its definition that it accelerates all at once. It's probably not a metaphor to say, the system in observance resists change ...then, the motivation exceeds the ability to stasis, a lurching aspect takes place. Then the new base-line is above(below) the previous. Provided the new regime isn't too different, the larger SD events may still pop into the previous for a visit. Like if the snow line moves N(S) of Philly ( say ...) doesn't mean it won't snow there. Just that there is/was a bigger leap into a new lower(higher) probability there. We could have/be in a resistance thing and not even know it, already. I'm just throwin' it out there. I'm not saying one way or the other. I think we pretty much beat this horse already .. but, my personal thinking is that I don't feel comfortable saying a human life span. We should also note that we are exceeding the climate impact models -

Mm... all thaaat, and there's also vibe of drama-junkie withdraw syndrome. I woke up this morning and saw a banal pallet of weather in all tech, everywhere. Those teases in the tropics look much less interesting. There's no sign of much seasonal migration to the general canvas... Even the heat signal appears like it's destined to be an 18 hour misty warm sector - followed by the shear horror of 0 SD in every direction... In here? fights a times, and occasional annoying compressed tension thing. In a way it's funny. It's like if there aren't storms and drama on the charts, humans create the hysteria. If there is drama out there, it is remarkably patient and understanding in here. Lol

Then it happens next year. haha

It's a psycho-babble support group in here, period. Deal with it -

I got off my own point/topic in that diatribe... What I failed to circle back on is the catch-22 aspect There are a select few that have the brain trust and native power, to engineer the array of technologies upon which the entire arrival of modernity, from civilian constructs to the population crisis, all of it, owes those discoveries. But there is a gap, where their 'magic' far exceeds the vast majority ability to either technically understand, much less appreciated. Having their entire existential frame of reference entirely built inside the comforting, 'dissociative sooth' of the Industrial bubble. There's a lot of feed backs, but at a rudimentary level ... there really is no where in biology that life on this Planet is observed evolving in a direction when not initiated to do so by stress -enforced adaptation. Related to that, convenience does not naturally impel an individual to sensing or knowing needful things, particularly when the convenience spans successive generations - that's all they really need. I guess a solid metaphor is, 'How much of the tree is known to the leaf?' Overly fertile grounds over produce ...just like we see in invasive species phenomenon - where the incoming population then explodes for having few challenges to inhibit, ... there is no built in conservationism in nature ( that is a human idea). Enabled only, they use up the resources ...suffer severe deficits, then there is an inevitable population collapse. Sometimes irrecoverably, because there is no longer a loop-cycle; for having been unwittingly squandered, that was destroyed along the way. Their obtrusive introduction to the ecology was/is too much for the environment to adapt. That's basically it .. that's the whole ball of wax - I see the entire arc of humanity, first from lever and pulley basis, to where we are now ... to what all mathematics involved says we are inexorably heading ( should we fail to do what cannot be done, which is stop our selves! ) as a metaphor, if not outright same exact thing as the above ecological model. The insurmountable number of "exhaust" producing species numbers came into being because of the innovation-advantages inherited. We became the intruders as innovation created the over-fertility. And after so many generations, the "tree" isn't even assumed or entitled - it is just part of the Earth and sky. Much less really known by those who "deny because they can" We've always, as a species, carried on with business as super complex versions of lesser examples in Nature. The ecological checks and balances will come and get us, too, if just doing so proportionately complex.

We're getting murk-packed into eastern sections. The NVA/low level clearing ability is delaying because there isn't a whole helluva lot of momentum to this front that limped through. As I posted a while ago, there is a secondary boundary/tuck flow moving into NE sections, and there is DP erosion behind that feature. PSM is into the lower 50s...as is PWM...and Manchester, NH is also 59 ... Meanwhile, it's jamming into a region that won't mix out so it's probably pooling 68/64 afternoon. The southern Maine Coast is a gem day. Probably 74/53 with a billion miles of visibility beneath irrelevant but all important aesthetic fractal CU

Meh... kind of subjective there tho. I can see his point from a purely meteorological perspective. Sensibly? we take risk in assessing using 'the feel' ...because suppose if it were some unworldly 108 F all summer *bear with*, then it was 90 ... we'd be saying, 'phew! least we broke the back...' Obviously you already know this and that there is some relativity to the subjectivity of that consideration. But for me, I look at the circulation medium. The 582 has to descend beneath latitude in question, and not return being impetus We are rollin' 588's back to almost the ST L latitudes, but getting lucking because we are also rollin' confluence N of there, and it is 'cheating' in send continental tucking air only here. Back to the sensible appeal, my fam in K-zoo out there in Michigan said just the other day that it has not been fall there at all so far. Having said that ... I think there is also a bit of a difficulty now that is part of CC, where these transition seasons are showing hugely disparate regime changes across short period of times. Like last year...when nearing Halloween there was a modest snow event in the region, and then we spend nearly a week close to 80 with the sun setting at 4:39 pm in November. It was weird. Almost like the antithesis to the Feb/Mar 80 days that have happened in recent decade... Point being, the distinctions are getting blurred. The more dependable orderly climate model of shedding 90s...then 80s...then 70s --> 40s eventually, seems to be disrupted, making it both hard to know -if one wants to base it on sensible weather - but also offers a marvelous trigger for petty internet squabbles. Haha

Add those numbers to the already overflowing CC data pool ...

Time sensitive but if you loop this .. .you get the distinct impression that there is a bit of a secondary momentum/'tuck' moving into NE zones... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

I realize you were just asking the rhetorical question, still, for some ...it's personal - most likely. I've mentioned this in years past, but ...since it's a touchy subject that hits closer to the vest with the psycho-babble shit, it was either ignored or met with replies at best, sometimes even vitriol - probably by those that know they have it in the latter and get defensive. It's called -(S.A.D.) ... yes, that's right, 'negative S.A.D.' It's the less common variant of seasonal affecting issues, but it does have an impact on people's emotional and psychic states during the summer. Simply put, they loathe high sun, bright light lingering into evenings, and warmth. These trigger the same response that the dimming/cooling of autumn and winter affect on the bigger, more common population. https://www.verywellhealth.com/summer-seasonal-affective-disorder-5187898 "Summertime SAD is less common than wintertime SAD." "“It is believed that the intense light in the summer, which might be accompanied by heat and high humidity, are involved in the change in mood and well-being,” Hoffmann says. “One hypothesis is that the intense sun in some people overexcites your brain, which might cause anxiety, sleeplessness, and agitation.” I have long suspected that return contributors ...spanning many years, has distilled the group into being one that is a concentration ( tendency therein..) of these rarer types. They long for darker, colder times, and associate that with joy. Such that it is entirely easy to understand how winter storms and snow and other attributes that establish nostalgic pathways back to that realm are preferred, because the alternative actually causes them discomfort. I mean, it doesn't have to black or white... it's all about tendencies and degrees of it therein. So, when someone is off on summer dominating this that or the other thing, ..it's going to rub folks the wrong way.

The other aspect with snow in December is that is has a huge diabatic upside regardless of era... ( assuming 'warm snow' or 'cold snow' ) It's got some last lingering availability by proximity to a still cooling ...not yet nadir Gulf of Mexico/g-string out there. I've often contended that 1992 may have been sort of "super charged" in some ways - although it was a deep vortex either way one cuts it. But, having the two factors overlap... I mean, I think it was Brockton got within reach of a half foot of rain ...before 8::1 fell to 12" of blue snow, once the mix came thru late in the event down there. I know at UML were nearing 3" of liquid...then the flash, then 17" on top... That snow up there was blue with powder on the top half.

Ha... ya know... doing the projection math on this... wouldn't wanna live around here in that vision. I mean, imagine rain on winter and snow being comparatively rare, as the predominating expectation? That's a lot of rain... in cold air. And by cold... 38 rain all. winter. long. Then, ...wait for it, BD seasons still gets to claim it's real-estate. F - that.

Bingo really ... I mean, add up all those occurrence of lag, it makes the climate "line" ( I'm calling it that but's amorphous in reality ...) reflect, (lagged events) /N-terms. But it's not just that ... I mean he's right about our damming thing. That forces/intensifies the b-c gradients, and with the cold sides getting a topographic feed-back helping to keep barrier jets going, ..it's kinda more than just WAA/ isentropic lift over a cold domes. It turns WAA sceanrios into CCB ones some times.

Will's right there - I mean ..when I was musing at length between Ray, I was dancing with that notion in mind - perhaps could have put a quick turn of phrase in there. Like, " not including local studies" lol. That would certainly account for notwithstanding uniqueness. But it can't last forever of course. But it is true, we can offset the climate migration. It's almost like the line sags E of greens and hesitates while the inevitability of it's migration continues N. Such that ... ( purely hypothetically: ) if it took 30 years to get to ALB, it might take 38 years to clear ORH. ..something like that. I think it is interesting to note ( also ..) that our "flop direction" appears to be on the warm side in marginal modeling. It used to be that I - personally - could count on correcting a +1 C at 850 early March blue to -1... Now it seems that can't be assumed. ..separate sort of behavioral observation I've been making.

Sunsets are beautiful.. where are the clouds in a "Cloud - 2021" thread.

I'm a coveted fan of the hook electrodes up to testicles tactic. It can be a very affecting management tool in that kind of perception based hurdle ... We just have to get people linked up between Climate Change, and Humanity's induction of it, before we supply the charge. People would be amazed at how quickly resistance evaporates when their nuts are connected to the crisis. Extending the metaphor further, existing inside the addling, complacent affects of the Industrial convenience bubble, denies that circuitry and instead soothes said testicles when the opposite is really needed. Again again again ... if CC came along with more corporeal ( i.e., 'can actually feel it' ) advocates, it would trigger response. The soft ramp up spanning 50 years routine ...egh. Albeit instantaneous relative to geological time span, I become increasingly convinced ... purely by observation of a Global zeitgeist in the matter, that is still just too far and long outside of the human capacity to link much. Most resisters believe, perhaps at both unconscious and in the conscious components of their psyche, that it isn't real. Duh. But, why? I circle back to that post I made in 2019: 'People deny because they can' ... which at a more fundamental level they are not connecting the problem between the environment, and the ways and means of their daily trappings and preoccupying lives have to it. They are being told, 'You can't do the latter any more, or else [ ] That's what they see. They see this, [ ] Here's my wild notion: Intelligence is not evenly distributed - as much so... - among human beings as it is in various other species. Cats, for example, are closer to one another, than human Joe is to Mary ... and Mary is to Jane ... and Jane is to David ... and on and so on. In the former, you have a group of cats, one or two may figure out how to open doors by leaping to the handle and doing 'whatever that was in estimate' they saw the human do, but most of them can't make that leap. In human beings, that gap is the difference between self-soother's walking down the street in heated debates with the ether, versus those solving the fundamental secrets of the God equation. More over, ... 50 ... 60 ... 80 ... of all people, probably fall in interquartile density that is ... well, dense. Too much so to even have prayer in saying anything that offers mystery and intrigue to those moving the variables around in the mathematics of the proverbial formula. The disparity among humans as the walk and carry on about the Earth is staggering in proportion to even Chimpanzees. When you subject these greater numbers to a multi-generational, institutional assumption/entitlement to so much... I mean, there is a catastrophic layering problem really. You have to first get people re-educated about what they are being given, then, they may start to connect with the fragility ...and ease, they have no idea there is between them an loin clothed, gang raped, starvation in dystopian pestilence, which would probably be a generation or two in length before the return to lever and donkey power regained any semblance of civility. But I'm wondering - LOL... SORRY. I'm being perhaps a little overly hyperbolically dystopian here - yes of course... I mean the numbers and dire aspects of all may in fact be better than this portrayal. But we are so close to the point of no return... we have to also be proportionately daring in our prose, too. I think of this rigor in society right now ... really a kind of "soft" ideological civil war, between vaccinated and unvaccinated. More and more, ..the accounts of the latter, where in a room of beeps, pumps and tubes, the ill-fated can only text through intubation, 'get vaccinated' ... and now they understand!? The word "Pandemic" only applies to the part of civility that is not vaccinated - this is incontrovertibly true. Putting in bluntly, ... if you are dumb, don't understand science, and concomitantly with lacking that ability...tend to be easily beguiled and manipulated by plausibility without sensing the lac of probability in most matters ... ( long sentence but bear with me - ), you're succumbing at a very high rate right now. I refer to the Delta shit as "Darwin Variant" .. .because, it IS an exquisite example of a Darwinian example. It's not really even complicated. It's a direct indictment. When a solution is offered to a group of people, an opportunity to save themselves ... but they lack the ability to recognize its salvation .. they die. I mean, if we wanna look at the underpinning philosophy ... our biggest strength against time and the forces of death that really more precisely define the Nature of the Cosmos ... is that we were given the gift of intelligence. That is our tool. Our weapon against the beast... If people are not smart enough to use it they get removed from contention. Period. Different concepts entirely ..but with root causality in utter limitations of perception and capacity guides why both problems in their respective arenas.

Yup! This was/...is being covered extensively in the IPCC special publications for anyone else that's interested... No sense in me posting a bunch of links as one can easily load Duck Duck Go or Google, ... or whatever search engine it is you use that allows the NSA - corporate oligarchical arch to spy on your colon, ... and just type IPCC special reports and be creative and they're all right there.