Typhoon Tip

Ha ha... right right. I noticed a proliferation of these "J.J. landscaper" vehicles began around the time of the advent of back back and walk behind leaf blowers. It's a 'rocket science' gig achievement while baked -

Oh...ha! T "MINUS" 2 days... Heh, I didn't even know there was a new version coming out. Interesting... knee-jerk suspicion: just in the nick of time for the cold-season debut. It's probably going to be under unbearable scrutiny

uh what dies this mean?

Mm... I'm not sure I agree with using temperature anomaly distributions anyway. Not that anyone asked... just showing up to the bus-stop here. But, in short, I'd actually ballast the pattern tendencies more so than the t-anomaly distribution for any climate lapsing questions/method therein. I've come to find that early pattern tendencies, more so the temps, tend to beget those patterns returning in deeper more prolonged form. Temps? those will usually follow the patterns guiding - eventually.. Not trying to troll here - just being frank. Late October 1995 into early November is a perfect paragon for that sort of aspect, ... yeah perhaps too good and should be treated as an isolate fluke. I don't know. But there are many other years I can recall where early -EPO/-NAO blips --> later onslaughts. This seems to be less true for the AO itself, however ...'nother headache. As an aside: we are also in a skewing interpretation problem right now - a bad one, too. People seem to be missing this quite a bit. We have been getting CC -related ( most likely culpable...) disproportionately warm temperatures relative to all teleconnection, an aspect that has been increasing in frequency spanning some years. It's just been a matter of decimals vs whole numbers or not. But, in suppositionally speaking, a -1.0 SD NAO was colder in 1990 than now...etc - how much or how little. Which to me makes the usage of temperatures even more shaky - maybe even absurd. Case in point, spanning these first 10 days of present October, we are likely to sustain at least a modest positive temp anomaly distribution over our regional U.S. ( notwithstanding two or three counties managing to buck those averages ..if so). In fact, +2 and +3 at HFD/ORH, i.e., just a bit sight longer than just modest at that. But regionally speaking, we'll see. Yet, sustaining a -2.0 SD NAO?! That should be interesting to anyone not brain numb. I suspect if we keep hitting the neggie NAO's we'lll start bleeding more cold and offset these 10 days. (Hint, I'm not buying the EPS right now... but that is getting too discrete for the seasonal thread). Fact of the matter is, we are now 10 days into this Oct, with all of them in a rather deep -NAO, and the dailies are modestly warmer than normal. And, this -NAO has been demonstrative in the lower tropospheric circulation bias, with plenty of mass transport evident into eastern Ontario and slicing SW -W along the upper M/A into the OV region. It's not fake... I think that's playing with dry ice there... heading toward November if the GOA/R-wave structure remains relatively weak, while the NAO is neutral-negative. Eventually we're threshold and it will have been a coherent pattern tendency that "might" have been surmised early if using that "beget idea" lol.. .but yeah

Depends which ensemble cluster/source one adheres to -

heh...I may be over stating... It just sucks landing this butt plug off the Atlantic on a Saturday and Sunday. I'm liking these MEX numbers from HFD to FIT here in the interior. It can do this until November 15 for all I care: SAT 09| SUN 10| MON 11| TUE 12| WED 13| THU 14| FRI 15| SAT 16 CLIMO X/N 61| 44 66| 52 72| 51 75| 53 73| 57 74| 51 75| 53 73 39 62 That said ...I still don't like the look of the American- based telecon spread for the distant range. Tries to flip seasons too quickly .. and by "too quickly" - normal pattern gestation-timing wouldn't likely carry that a long way, particularly when the hemispheric winter gradient hasn't even evinced what that pattern is likely to be just yet. Unless it's 1995 ..heh -

Meanwhile ... loop this: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined It's really almost more than merely symbolic to me, how the synoptics seem to be passing backward through April ...en route to winter. Just like we see in that dreaded god-forsaken rectal plaque month, we get these north Atlantic conveyors to set up ... as though preordained by geology millions of years ago.. predicting the future, targeting SNE ( seen abv) It's pooling here. The NAM has this for 72 hours... unrelenting. While it's 60 going to 74 up your way, with gem skies that only polish in time. top 10 there bottom 10 here

Meh... I feel pretty confident in my own hypothesis regarding the attenuation of ENSO forcing. As the HC has expanded, and weakened that aspect of the total Walker circulation, that just physically impedes the ability of the former's ability to disperse into the R-wave layout of the lower Ferral/HC kiss latitudes "as much as" it used to prior to the HC morphology, which has becom more coherent over the last 20 years. ..on and so on. Longer version: Nested in that statement is the concept/worth-while experimental posit that begins to explain why recent ENSO regimes have suffered comparatively weaker impacts around the known climate targets of the world over that same time span. Not saying zero, but less. Again, it doesn't mean Nina won't express in the flow, just that any -1.5 ( +1.5 ..etc), may not be as discernibly so, as it was in the prior climate generation. Which means if true ...one takes risks basing your forecast percentage/weights as much so as we used to, among a few implications... I find it fascinating that as a seasonal forecasting science/"art," the general ambit is still figuring out how the ENSO this and that drives things, when here we are modulating the ability for it to even do so ..before said ambit had really figured it all out. So how this affects/effects the winter ... "up in the air" with all due puns intended... but, I would put money down that it would be less coherently La Nina "looking" than one may expect - if indeed they were raised prior to 2000 and still rely upon those older paradigms. I think there will be times when the pattern looks more La Nina-like... but, those will be happenstance and transient, while the pattern structure is en route toward some other circulation destination that looks nothing like La Nina at other times, given this range of anomaly observed and predicted. That happens in 1955 anyway, but even more so. Unstable ... Lots of gradient as a base-line canvas, with 12 to as many as 15 non-hydrostatic height contours between Brownsville Texas and James Bay common amid a rage of excessive velocities tending to absorb individual shortwaves. This will effect storm morphology/type and frequency - unclear how or if that effects precipitation amounts or impact types. Polar indices play their usual role. We could be bombed or boned this winter, depending on idiosyncrasies in timing and placement details of the polar mechanics. And those have less predictive skill at seasonal lead constraints. I do like the prospects given the cards showing on this Black Jack deal, though. With -Solar + multi-decadal AO appearing to be rather robustly +correlative ( QBO and SSW doing their bits...) that should mean eventually the law of averages catches up with this f'n game and we finally get a -AO winter going. Jesus Christ.

Green house polluters

This could be an epic Science Fiction tale ... The central thematic arc would be a bit of a trope, 'tinkering in systems with extraordinary power setting off extraordinary consequences,' but given to the travails of AGW and humanity's glut for energy that are here and clearly present dangers, would give that trope a very special sort of penetrative relevancy (to put it nicely... ) ".... Researchers from QUT's Centre for Materials Science, led by Associate Professor Liangzhi Kou, were part of an international study that used theoretical modelling to identify six metals (nickel, niobium, palladium, rhenium, rhodium, zirconium) that were found to be effective in a reaction that can convert carbon dioxide into sustainable and clean energy sources." the used advancing AI/Super computers to ferret this out - In "The pendulum ice age" ... innovation exceeds the wise foresight. It was calculated in the earlier eras of empirical AGW's proof of occurrence, after the great dying of mid century: since compensatory technologies got us in trouble, they will be needed in semblance of proportionality to serve us our savior. History's greatest evolutionary challenges contain a leitmotif: during any din of crisis. those that walked out and lived to reproduce, dusted off because they relied upon human ability to innovate solutions. Nodal machines dot the intercontinental lands by the year 2084, while at equidistant, those power-plant processing platforms, were moved into positions out over the open vastness of the Earth's oceanic expanses. Their eerie homage to a bionic world transforming, the 'C02 Terra Reclamation Impact Matrix', this was the first ever example in human history. The first of its kind in so many varied and textured distinctions, ranging from the shear sophistication awe in technological specter, to the the fact that it involves the entire world stage. It indicated of our species arrival: we are succeeded Kardashev Level 1 Civilization distinction - if proximately. Albeit quite primitive in an Cosmological scale or sense therein, still these godly roads compared like a magic carpet ride to the trails wagon wielding crank and shaft mechanization. Or the eras between, from A-bombs to Pandemic management? Thosse seem like day 1 of freshman life, compared to this, the graduating test en meritus. "CTRIM" marks the first move into a future where all societies could collectively feel the satisfaction of a deep breath in relief. But lingering out there was that trope: Great systems of great power may born consequence proportionately handsome ... even just a little bit ... But CTRIM was geophysically derived. It had in a hurried motivation - to put it necessarily ... - met with all presumed testing. Each sub-beta-N stage introduced more complexity, more so to analog the "known" nearly fractal nature that pervades the essence of a cause-and-effect dynamic realm of feedback called Nature. The iterations finally bringing to bear a version of the technology, giving returns that limited unintended or emergent ramification, below a theoretical tolerance. So long as returns do not impose 1.61803% negative feedback, they didn't synergistically propagate toward toppling the initial system - it just is what it was, that peculiar value was the threshold percentage. And so it was, the best way to reduce the surplussed C02 ... while simultaneously providing uninterrupted energy to power the 'orgasm of humanity's various need-perceptions,' the the ambient C02 fell. Energy became a blinding surplus, actually. At first, the error was ignored. It's hard to label something as a problem, when the goal is being achieved an order of magnitude faster than the design of any problem solving method. The system in question was also simply never tested for positive returns. Blunder? The conceit of the achievement blinds like love. But compensatory kinematic feedbacks are another area of fractals that proves the folly-makers pride. It's like in that [ probably ] top 10 movies of all time, "War Games," "...Strange game. The only winning move is, not to play."

Euro looks ( to me ..) like it just took the climatology of the U.S. and mapped a small %age of CC -enhanced PWAT regression over top. Which is like taking climate and adding a few clicks.

Time sensy but spectacular loop demonstrating how BDs defy natural physics and move opposite all rotational kinematics on Earth ...kidding, but you can really see how the synoptics (loop below) uses New England as a figurative dumpster for extra backside cold mass... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Why fester over rain on a Sunday night anyway. low confidence obviously but snow atmosphere … the ole CU shrouds spitting grits by the 20th+ is gaining some; in the distant mass field/modulation handling. We’ll see where it goes but that is siggy telecon convergence … albeit extended lead.

Record high temperatures increasingly more likely D6 ... 8 ( watching BD of course..) with this new operational Euro, and recent trends culminating. The EPS non-hydrostatic height evolution supports the general theme with a clear R-wave rollout ridge and height anomalies some +2 SD over the span. I think it is interesting ( sorry to harp on this ...) because of all months in recent times ...I don't recall/find many Octobers that hosted as many warm records, or at minimum, as many upper tier warm events as we've seen them in every other month. In fact, many Octobers we've actually been working out eerie cold patterns for the mid and end of month(s)... this seems to be opposite. However, I don't believe this will characterize the month. This seems to be happening during a week or so window with relaxing NAO and a lingering -PNA coverging on lifting eastern heights...etc. But the deeper range may not evolve toward warmer afterwords. I'd like to point out that in 2011, we had 70 to 76 days for a week through the 10th .. 15th of October, and put up a snow event in the waning days so..

No ... but it sure is fun to drop a turd colored egg into a nest of counted chickens - lol

Last night's operational Euro looks close to or in historic warmth D5+ particularly D7/8 out there. That's 16+ 860 mb with rotted continental Indianapolis fart air with enough tepid sun still lingering to send temps knocking on the door of past numbers.

Agree wholeheartedly ... however, the EPO is a kind of a peculiar entity. Because t's anchored pretty hard into the WPO --> lag correlative ... additionally, is also sometimes anchored in a "tall" ...or very amplified PNA ( which overlaps the EPO domain space and gives it a "little" more mass -contributed dependability).. when these regions are active there is often enough a coupled phasing with EPO domain space, giving it some skill. The NAO does not have that coupled benefit. In short, where the EPO is difficult, the NAO index really can't be predicted. It can't. I'm not going to get into labeling and theory over it, or we'll be at this until 11:14 pm this evening and I got the Red Sox loss ( sadly...) to the Yankees ... I'd almost say the AO is the easiest of the three ...than the EPO ...etc.. . in some sort of long-lead teleconnector-relative ranking. Like , HC Expansion + La Nina ( which may be buried by the former - the verdict is still out...) + phase of PDO ... + solar and SSW ... I don't speak for RD's methods but perhaps juggling these... Thing is, I am not a big fan at all these days with analogs from prior to the hockey-stick CC era which began roughly the 1998 super nino. Too many global systemic changes to count on those. It may be why some Nina/Nina winters have been blowing up lately... etc.

I'm not feelin' it yet with the Red Sox. I've seen nothing over the last two weeks that outright indicates they are proficient against play-off contenders - they've amassed and still are amassing wins off teams that are not. Which they should win those games ...so yeah as far as that goes. But this thing over the weekend? don't get caught up in it. The Nationals should have been swept but actually ...one can argue the games were closer than they should have been... Tonight game should be over by the 4th inning..some 7 -2 ... maybe a later rally to make in 9-6 but falling short. No Bucky Dent heroics ala 1978 redux required. That's how I lean... Am I absolutely confident - nah... wouldn't want be putting money down on this because they still are the same team that went nearly 70 games early in the year with reproducible big comebacks when they they shouldn't have on roster paper. SO, can't say that mystique does or doesn't pop back in at the chagrin of Yankees.

I hope these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow and Thursday ... Could 72 to 75 with lowered DPs under an open sky. Couple of top 10 days unfortunately in the middle of the week, but we take what we can get. After this dead air clammy crawlspace coffin -

I realize this gets annoying for some .. but, that's the HC expansion into the northern and southern latitudes of the planet - most likely. But here's the thing, if that anomaly was calculated against just since 2010 ... (not all the way back to 1993) I bet those warm nodes within those warm garlands would be less pronounced, ..the bands themselves would also shrink if not have more gaps. But going back to 1993 as the headers indicate, that predates the ballast of the observed/calculated expansion that has happened, with particularly more coherence since 2000 according to the lit and ambit of the science in the matter. Basically, Since the expansion is an intrinsic physical acceleration, it will "glow" because it is new in that sense.

Mm.. the pattern may look AN, but as this ordeal presently shows ... we can be f'!ed deep and hard, despite being underneath higher than normal heights, or whether or not an overall canvas should argue this can't happen. The larger scale tends to obscure/ hides how specific New England idiosyncratic detailing offset the larger picture ... uncouples us from the pattern indication. Just means warm look = cool result for other reasons. This is typical of transition season bs around here. It's the same reason why April manks in like this. It has to do with where we are in relation to the continent. and we "kelvin hemholts" pooled 850 air that isn't warming ...The Euro is slam dunking that tendency and that ain't no AN. 'can't pearl out high pressure N of our latitude...or it will be negative anomalies ...i.e, NOT above normal, yes DURING and above normal pattern. Sounds paradoxical, but that's what it means for this geographical region. It's unique. It's like we run our own private little sub-climate that hides within and runs anti-corollary to the larger signal ...say 40% of the time in a sense. So while I'm not refuting your take there ...I'd just caution folks that this can turnout ugly, ... gobbling up a half week's worth of life in another low level cool/RH dumpster scenario that isn't very well modeled.

What a fista butt inundated pattern. It’s about as bad as it can physically be. We may not see sun until the end of the week. Rock bottom weird to have July heights while this is happening. over 2” so far from this April mess

After being wonky the last two consecutive years .. we appear destined to hitting the previous mean from 2009 thru 2018 here along Rt 2 in N-central Mass. Looks like October 10 to 15 for most species ... eye-ballin' timing, and then Silver Maples and Oaks do their typical lingering

I hunch both are right, tho - It may take some era passage along with more science to evince.. but cloud physics in a warming world is not ubiquitously the same over oceans, comparing to intracontinental regions. There is huge difference in the thermodynamic coupling between ocean and lower troposphere, versus the former. We know in the general sense that a warming world does produce more clouds. How? because it rains more ...and has been raining more.. (and rain in this context means anything falling out of a cloud mechanics, including snow ..hail, sleet in the hydrologic sense). We cannot have more rain falling without more efficient cloud mechanics. The study in question was discussing a small percentage of dimming Earth because the warming oceans and less low cloud - and was honing the PDO region of the N Pacific. *There may be correlation to warming PDO and climate change, notwithstanding. It seems to me just a priori and anecdotal observation combined ( so taken fwiw - ), where we are cloud seeding naturally over land, we are seeing very pervasive and dense overcasts from relatively/comparatively weaker synoptic forcing. ... actually speak of the devil. This goop from Iowa to NYC is a rather fortuitous example of that. This "trough" is barely a trough...it's really more like a sag in the non-hydrostatic curve between the perennial western ridge and WAR... yet, it has this vast inundation in all directions. Meanwhile, the western U.S. from Iowa to west of San Francisco ... Nevada... Wyoming? We're talking 1200 miles with zero cloud production. None. Just something I've been noticing .. where there is no clouds, it seems more barren... Where there is any excuse at all to create them, we see those anomalous proficients. But here's the thing ... Marine environs own some 70-73% of the areal physicality of the planet. So, if the warming oceans are lowering low cloud productions ( by vertical sounding/physical forcing..etc...), there should be a net dimming, by virtue of arithmetic. Any increase that might be quantifiable if land were considered in quadrature, would be less weight in that budget.