Typhoon Tip

oh i didn't run that through any editing for grammar. there's probably miss placed comas and shit like that.

I knew her personally ...though we hadn't spoken in years - life distancing... But I interned with Harvey Leonard back in the autumn of 1996 into the winter of 1997, a time when she was still on the noon desk working as a colleague to him, and Todd Gross ..et al. We shared many chats. The night crew typically showed between 4 and 4:30.... I was there by 3:30, hanging charts and queueing digitals such as MOS and NWS texts/alerts as part of the gig. But she often hung around for awhile and we talked about aspects that ranged, some personal ... and of course, much about the weather. She was just like us in so many ways, for the passion of weather phenomenon. Her big core was convection, which mine was at the time - we regaled stories of our youth. I witness an F3 tornado carve a canyon straight though the business district of Kalamazoo Michigan, when I was boy .. 1980, May 13th. She, the same...as a similar destructive vortex stung through her neighborhood. She was somewhat younger then I, when witnessing her encounter. We were in our 20s back in those WHDH days. But we felt there was similarities in our backgrounds like that... The reason I'm revealing this is to let you all know, that I can assure you, she was not a climate denier. What she was concerned over, back then, was the absolute attribution of human activities as being the only cause. She also was miss-construed and framed improperly for her views on Vaccines. But vaccines have now taken on the same knee jerk trial and conviction --> career assassination shit as WOKE and 'Me Too' - where people are so willing, almost recreationally, to ruin lives based upon precise accuracy of the "public impression of what facts are". I had not spoken with her beyond an email exchanges since ... 2007 I want to say - I had not realized it was that long ago, until this horrible news struck like a sniper bullet. I have been forced to ponder matters. It's very very sad to me, because we were on the friend side of acquainted, sharing space and colloquy on so many occasions. I can assure you, knowing who she was, as I did back then, she was fully capable and willing, if confronted with science and empirically based causality, of amending her perspectives on matters. Those climate views being bandied about, were from 25 years ago people. Her most recent gig was in fact going to be a climate specialist/journalist - it would not shock me, knowing who she was, that it would be where she would atone if need be.

mm there's a Miller b out there on the GEFs mean ... sort of there in the 00z, but more coherent in the 12z, looks like late on the 24th through the 25th. not a lot of support for it suggestive of the numerical telecon, but the latter was calculated off the 00z, ... so there that. but also, the wave lengths are shorter, so those may not be as dependable - typical spring issue with those. We'll have to see... i was a proponent of this sort of relaxed flow/curvature having a window for a couple of weeks between the 15th and the April Fools... It's interesting that the MJO desk is speculating a warm anomaly. If they're onto something with that forcing ( strong Phase 4-6 constructively overlaying a warm La Nina spring climo...) than this stuff might get rudely usurped by a force the operational runs merely have not yet detected in the physics just yet. Somethong to keep in mind, too.

Yet this ... • The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observational RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of the main convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the past week. • There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagation of the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitude event. • The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, is expected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks. • The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint would favor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperatures across eastern North America later in March.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/big-oil-and-gas-kept-a-dirty-secret-for-decades-now-they-may-pay-the-price?utm_source=pocket-newtab

You and me both warned of this day ... I specifically posted, I'm not too keen on ( at the time... ) Thursday and Friday - as the vagaries of model and wind would have it, we'll salvage tomorrow+ ... most likely. But today? Some models at the time were suppressing this rhea wheel beneath a narrow ridge but that didn't fit the telecon for a neutral PNA positive NAO tapestry. Usually the EOFs win one way or the other. The question is how much of it -

What. I knew her personally what

It does but it also stresses believability too far when there are too few tools and metrics supporting those extreme cold intrusions at such continental scales for one. But at a canvased consideration … this isn’t exactly the Maunder Minimum world we’ve inherited here. 498 hydrostatic heights spanning the vastness of the NP and 504s to BUF should roll eyes first when considering after the Equinox … nothing else. not happenen James

Wow Fri. 18z NAM sends 2-m temps into the low 70s

There's no one-size-fits-all answer ... You didn't ask me - just sayn' You satisfy the east ends, the west get left in the dark(light) and vice versa ... and back and forth we go. If you wanna dig into philosophy of it, this contention only happened when humanity gained the ability to communicate in real time across long longitudinal distance ... Prior to that, this was never an issue anywhere. It's one in a many subtle examples of how our evolution has out paced the planetary system - now THAT is one helluva a mutation, huh -

Plausible often is not possible just sayn'

Yeah... this is my only peeve about it. I don't really give a ratz azz what happens otherwise with daylight in the winter, because it's not like I'm outside for any reason other than dashing between doors. There are supposed insurmountable issues to society but I find those arguments to be more if not evasive, really just being cow-tied to convention and/or personal wants, masquerading as hardships. If this were 1970s ... perhaps, but techno-cultural relativity gives something back to the other side of the debate. In this modernity there are ways and means to make it feasible.

So I guess I'm a douche about this particular subject matter because I've often fantasized that there should be a non-premises rule, restricting aberrant early access. That also would capture for Remote access, too. IT's can shut down VPN access based on a mouse click, and/or give it to selected IPs if in the case of emergencies...etc.. If someone wants to get up at 4:45 am that's fine. That's their business and life. But you work a full day between 9 and 5, just like everyone else, in a fairer distribution of competition. The reason work days get edged increasingly early over time is because of the unfair lead-in of the early advantageous. That's what starts the pull... But that is also causing stress to the majority ..as they have lives and often enough, valid reasons to not show up to work in the middle of the f'ing night.

Okay interesting. I was child in S. Lower Michigan through the early 80's ( as I date myself...). I thought back then they didn't move clocks? I dunno, but now that I think about it, I had forgotten that happened this Century. And I know what you mean about late setting sun in summer. Kalamazoo is right there.... same, with golden horizontal sun still shinning off the tops of the tallest trees at 930... with still legible light at 10, knowing it is only two hours until midnight ...is a rather weird state of affairs.

It's not likely to get that far inland where y'allz are... It was real this morning up this way, prior to 9 or 9:30 but area obs have since vastly improved. It appears to be absorbing in, and like Scott mentioned there are already signs of S flow taking over. As the sun warms and turns over the BL further, we'll probably see the surface mix out entirely up here where we are and bounce the temp.

There are two aspects to this for me: One: This is probably a wild notion on my part, but it's just a supposition. It seems there is an "apathy" to handed down wisdom ( understood to be meaningful/useful lore) that is become more and more the sociological behavioral norm. Flouting previous failure signals as such. I think that modernity and convenience addling is the problem. We really do live and breath and "resort" in times of relative hardships, to an embarrassment of recourse options compared 1900... 1950 was that much better. 2000 even more recourse aplenty. And despite the dangers continued Industrialism and its transformative power, unguided nor appropriately measured, invariably leading to x-y-x holocaust(s), we get richer. (Perhaps right up to the edge of our oblivion as a digression point). That is our reality here inside the "relative opulentia" of the Industrial bubble. With recourse comes less necessity for prudence, and thus... cutting hand-me-down lore of ways and means, at all scales. From the barns to Wall Street, to the White House. The information from forefathers is obviously listened to, but it is not really 'heard' like it used to be. It's like because there is not enough suffering from scarcity, people tend to nod at advice more so than take it very seriously and modulate their behavior, based on whatever's being handed down. I could see DST taking another trial swim... even though in the grand scheme as things ... the 1970s is a very very brief distance. But the lessons are in conceit or arrogance, not transmitting into this generation. Two: But there may be a difference now than a 1970s experiment. Perhaps the same powers/technology of modernity ...could also provide a different approach to application of DST in perpetuity. Firstly... Indiana and I think Arizona ( and there may be others ), I don't believe have ever messed with their clocks. Why not take a closer look and observe how their states go about the logistics and cogs of state vs private matters. Maybe their denizens hate it? Maybe the like what they have for a-b-c reason. Perhaps they don't have an opinion. ...Maybe those examples might lend some insight. Technology is transformative in how we live and carry about. There could if perhaps should be out of box thinking in how to use it to ameliorate all these "omg logistical can't happentisms" which are really based on of either fear, or insular inability to do just that: think outside the box and be creative with the powers/abilities in place.

you don't get to celebrate ...Not after all the troubles you put us through over snow and cold heartache. LOL

Yeah...I just noticed that too... Also the leading edge dissolving in RI .... It's shallow whatever that is ..or "was" rather and it might not dictate the whole day. Thing is, this time of year, expectations being realistically low anyway ... a N wind in this air mass is a value add. Just keep the evil ocean heat and life sucker where it belongs, please

The accelerating mass of lower clouds exiting SE out of the GOM is a smoking gun for a layer below 925 slipping SW... There are wave form fractals over the Berkshire's oriented NW-SE... and so the eastern SNE sore butt air mass is decoupled from that ... cutting underneath.

Last I looked I thought today was going to bust warm pretty good based upon the 925 mb thermal depths/cloud RH... But as the dawn raised the dimmer switch on the setting via satellite, this time sensitive loop, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ...reveals what looks to me like a sneaky "un-charta-able" BD feature has sneakily crept west like a scene out of the 1980s B-thriller, "The Fog"

It's just part of the unending charm of a Internet bus-stop Americana, that there are so many different interpretation sensitivity radars sending detection intents and purposes back to the user - right or wrong...

True … but the point was really about ‘light’ - for me anyway. I’d be disinclined to bed down with evening light but it’s probably not an issue for everyone. ‘Sides … that only lasts for a month.

Thing is … time registry on Earth was derived and set in accordance with celestial mechanics and the sun. It is DST the is the arbitrary, un-planetary designation of time quota and is thus “fake” comparing both … Is there going to be two time clocks kept: the real one, and then the rockstar one? I guess it doesn’t ultimately matter. Time is fluid in all directions, only constrained in the presence of gravity … or extraordinary values of V … which for present day purposes and practical Euclidean scales is limited to Newtonian motion where time is exceptionally close to constant. Since we don’t deal with realities susceptible to time dilation … we are at liberty to call time whatever we want. Interesting.

yeah..that's the first thing that came to mind for me ... 8:45 pm, between May ...12 or whatever and July 25th ...isn't the sun still not set yet at that hour? It's all good - not sure if I could ever do that even with training. interesting...

Then move the school day up an hour... ? It's called evolving the culture and society. Being manacled to traditional methods is so mid last Century.. It's time to stop being Officer Stickbutt about toeing the line of conventionality. ...not you, just sayn'. I mean I'm tired of the it can't be done rhetoric, because of this, that, or the other logistic impossibility - bull shit ... The human world is what humans make that world -