Typhoon Tip

We talked about this ages ago over the summer … ‘the universe appears to construct all off reality as though it were elementally from an analog engine’ One really crosses into the divide when they start to see and sense this, in the ephemeral realms of gestalt and circumstance, not just as recurrent physical themes.

They may end up looking similar but they got there entirely differently. “completely different leading set up” ?? If you want to cut it up that way all storms are the same because they all rotate counterclockwise - how about that. Lol

mm nah. Completely different leading set-up --> forcing synopsis.

Was nice before Trump made America great again ... back whence the Climate Diagnostic Center calculated the EPO index - it's hard to f'n find that now. I mean...it's not hugely necessary to see the numerical equivalence...we all recognize the precursors and loading patterns but still.

man, if that whole-scale structure were to cinema over easetern N/A about 400 mi E of present ... that would be a very, very high KU registry - Kinda interesting about that ...D7.5 - 8.5 looks like an ice storm prelude. The D8 even sets up pp that would DEFINITELY result in vicious barrier jet... But then that 55 unit v-max careens in and converts the whole thing into freak show. Actually, that trough has been in the run for 4 cycles ...gradually losing N-S and gaining longitude.. ( W--> E), fyi -

Do you think George should be allowed to see this Euro run ..?

Maybe we can cook up an ice deal D8

I think in this particular hemispheric canvas, if there's going to be a water-shed model run it's tonight's 00z that would be it. ...Altho, 18z's cycle may benefit from any augmented ingest. Relay is fast off the Pacific ...coming in on a narrow trajectory - historically, that's not exactly lending to improved model performance. The 00z run was still based off the scaffolding of assimilation over the ocean - in theory.. 12z has that nosing over land. The 00z Euro goes from positive tilt to this 12z airing more potency in neutral, with nuanced improvement in cyclone tendencies sooner ( I suspect ) for a reason. As we've hammered for a week... tho a +PNA, it is flat biased stretched and quite speed saturated. This is more error prone for textured reasons...

Euro perhaps a pube more interesting...

I know what you mean/meant but I still don't like that turn of phrase there ( bold ), lol. I mean ...duh, 'expectations' But, rules are made to be broken - I think the folks in here that have a toe hold on reality know that its rarer this early. Climate for the lay-person: does not dictate the daily anomaly. One needs to look at each situation uniquely, and keep 'climate' as the sum of events divided by n-terms in annual assessment at the end of the cold seasons where it belongs.

Wondering if black ice/ flashing later this evening... Lot of day after commuters. The near/backside cyclonic escape environment is likely to feature a rather abrupt acceleration of wind imparting crashing thickness via very efficient CAA. NAM has T1 going from ~ 6C to 0C between 00z and 2am with weak windex appeal there.

thing is... long years of experience - I've seen the NAM day dream like this before and hiccup fore' and aft of the stream line placements But that said .. it may be worth it to note that the mechanics are as of this 12z run grid filling ( however they do that over the eastern pac waters in/over B.C. ).. are just relaying over the denser physically materialized soundings, and oh gee - subtle morphology also materializes down stream. High sensitivity -

Interval comparison of the this 12z NAM run vs the prior two ... the defining difference to me isn't the strength of the N-stream. The wind momentum in either run's rendition isn't discernibly different, even down to the nuanced level. The difference between this 12z version, vs the prior two, is the timing in free space. The prior two runs have the best assessed N-stream trough axis ~ midway between Buffalo and Detroit longitude, where as this 12z run lagged back of eastern Michigan. That variance is opening up the wave-spacing wrt the surroundings - the closed 528 dm isohypses over the Lakes at 51 hours is likely more for that reason of increased spatial ownership in the flow for one. But the 2nd aspect is the clipper mechanics have 6 or so more hours to go to work before leaving the region ... coastal response ends up further west.

Hard to know for certain if it's our collective hyper-focus, or if it is really this way ... but this Clipper's meaningfulness is coming down to excruciating nuances ... It's like the more focused one gets, they disappear too - haha, the electron double-slit phenomenon in the models -

"...It's a race... [between detriments set into motion vs vitality] ...it's quite ironic, that technological advancements got us into this mess, we are now so inextricably dependent that technological advancing has to play a pivotal role in how that race ends.." Namely, whether we are a part of the winner's circle.

Two schools as I bug out for the holiday 1. This is the perfunctory ‘model outage’ of entering middle range. 2. be leery that most phenomenon tend to get normalized/damped as outer range turns near

Within an aggressive West wind no less …

North south east west by enough to distract are all solutions within the realm of possibility at this range.

Not sayin you are …but wouldn’t sweat it coming from that model. I bothered to follow it closer last winter and fwiw its correction tendency was rather high outside of 48 or so hrs. It’s basically a meso scale model on roids the way it’s description sounds. It kind of reminded me of the DGEX behavior frankly from years ago, watching it last year because it would often have these magnificent looking bombs nonother model did at 108 hrs, or be a flat bias when all the other models were working something more significant

This is really a Clipper … just knifing down a tad east of climo. I wonder if there might be thunder around the Lakes as those jet mechanics cone over top because there’s a pocket of good low to mid level cold lapse rates on the left exit-entrance axis …meanwhile the lakes are still relatively warm. Happened in Cleveland in Novie ‘86 … It’s like that only rotated. Anyway just a thought Reasonable continuity in the new NAM …albeit the NAM way out there There’s a pig ton of wind loading still dumping into the trough north west of Minnesota coming over the ridge arc in this run though it would likely carve

That UKMET dropped 14 dam in like 9 hrs as the 500mb core goes straight across ~ NYC-PWM thered be a nasty band or two

Well yeah I’ll give you that - they’re using it Also There was already a term for bomb cyclone; it’s called bombogenesis… But I don’t know maybe bomb cyclone has been adopted into the glossary

LOL Moderate IS significant … What are you saying? It’s not important unless it’s massive haha

That hypothetical’s actually pointed in favor… The ballast of the mass fields that are relevant to the scenario, those being timing the progressive positive PNA with a -NAO …just getting ready to reverse phases tends to place a storm track from the Del Marva to east of Cape Cod - that’s the ‘vector’ in that facet. I think that what we’re seeing is a coalescence in that favor albeit slowly - but day five that’s understandable

Yeah that was fun ICON movie for the ORH Hills. CCB coming in at climo direction