Typhoon Tip

This/that look's sort of been in the deck since last week's guidance.. yeah. it's occasionally extended east ... but hey! I'm in Michigan next week See, I'm like George on "Steinfeld" - I give up looking and that's when the peregrinations of life seem to miraculously just put me in a position for it. We'll see if she actually bites -

C'mon ... you focused on a parametric some 300 light years from the visible horizon edge of the expanding Cosmos on that one .. There was no way that was going make it from a D12 outlook, that many days, without emergent reality intervening LOL. you know that - And yes, it is hard to get an EML here that isn't at mininum polluted by meshing the continental miasma into it, or processed by other convection first, or somehow sneaking through the devil's gate of the perennial N/A pattern, which features a NW tendency over the Lakes that shunts it south. These are like 'white men can't jump' for us ... But once in while, one comes long like that odd-ball guy from Canada. And 1953 slam dunks. As an aside, it's why I think 1953 is probably the rarest return rate anomaly we've experienced since codifying N/A ( specifically ... New England) weather phenomenon into their respective OMG categories. I bet you it is slightly more % in favor of seeing a Feb 1978 blizzard redux - in fact I'm certain of that. You are in the wrong arena for the sport you like to play in - I've said this to you a dozen times, I know

Kinda both right from what I'm seeing from the Euro cluster - ... I see where Steve is coming from. It's not just the look of it, the 'music' sort of wants to resolve the next measure into a nadir flow over the Lakes OV- NE axis. Seems we are establishing that as foundation rather early... so we can snow by Halloween ..etc..etc.. That oughta earn me some likes from any web-handle with snow as a syllable. No sooner did the consensus arrive all set and square and settled that we would in fact flip August back to AN, that models seemed to choose that moment to begin a warm-august cancel-culture campaign... The EPS says the Euro has merit. As such, by D10, the op. version wends the pattern right back into the unusual, rather robustly amplified +PNAP ... ( look out Nevada, California perhaps up into Washington and Oregon for some dangerous heat again; and lookout the rest of the nation for smoke loading) The GEFs, while obviously rolling eyes .. does not agree so much with that idea though. Admittedly, it doesn't have persistence on its side. And I also have hypothesis as to why the Euro is doing this R-wave structured look at a time of the year when it is anachronistic. ...which is HC related + heat dome forcing geostrophic bulge in the west... forget it - But here's the odd thing, despite that thematic arc, the Euor does first time a W. N/A heat ejection down stream during the D5-6-7 under a trough that is high in latitude. It's like the heat is submarining the trough. I see this in that guidance a lot, frankly. Never tested it, though. But sometimes it does this where it gets a big heat 850 kinetic layer caught under a trough saddle like that... It's interesting. But, if so that's really a straight up heat wave this next Wed Thur and Fri, with the only preventative being cloud contamination. +20C at 850 at 18z each of those days with WSW or SW flow well established and no antecedent wash of cool air to cause light-wind difficult to erode out inversion shit. As an aside, I always felt some of those cool days in July benefited from that oddity. The 850s were out of line with the llv results ...kind of used rain to cheat the month colder than the thermal state of the atmosphere much of the time. Normal July sun would have been a mid 80s month. Anyway, that's just a nice solid heat wave look. More clouds is 88/73 ... but climo on clouds in SWs flow typically ends up better than modeled ceiling RH so it's probably more like 92 to 94 as a conservative estimate those days. Tl;dr for a mundane topic, I know.

wow...different universe of weather this morning.

It’s interesting how singled out SNE has been island off and shit stuffed like as sewage catch basin this summer. Seems like I’ve seen NYC and BTV sunny by 1 pm while ORH stays butt stuffed till sunset at least 10 times now

Lol "Breaking News: More restrictions on cheeseburgers loom as variant cases continue to surge ..."

Nothing about what the medical profession professed early on is wrong. Probability-wise, obese people were, and still are, .. more likely to flounder. Problem is .. there's no one way or the other in nature; the average person of modernity seems to have lost sight of the simple fact that everything takes place on a probability curve. Thin persons are in big trouble too - just not as much. I keep hearing/read people say things like, "yeah, but so-and-so skinny marathoner ..." as though that abases the original warning. You know? Morons are trying to abase the science of this thing at least excuse imagined. Personally, I often wonder if some if not a lot of the deeper real motivation for doing so, is so as to not have to admit to shit ( namely, how much theirs stinks in a lot of cases). This disease in a lot of symbolic ways is a disease of the opulent abundance of human kind at this point in our history. At all scales that is - at minimum - symbolic, like .. over crowding and surplus population in those regions where this problem ignited, was thus favored and fueled to spread by abundance of targets. It's probably indirect - 2nd ...3rd order in 'equations of culpability' if we will. Let's call it immoral while we are at it. The morality of survival has been achieved, but we obfuscate that truth by iniquity in society constructs that are entirely self-imposed/chosen. Getting into hippy shit - Communes don't work either. I keep coming back to humans need humility. The Pompeii's of history tended to set things right by exposing sloth and entitlement. Part of evolution I suppose ... times of advancing celebration needs the cruel indifference of set backs.

You know .. there's an obscure sort of cultural irony about this obesity link with vulnerability and risk factoring and C-19 We just went through this whole meme-ing sort of social-awareness over the last half decade or so, anti-bullying and not shading of body-types ... Showing up everywhere. Entertainment to the commercial breaks in between, lit and cinema.... unlikely match-making ( so much for 5 meets 5 ) this, or giant people dancing in music videos with syncopated rhythmic Kumbaya next to clear 9's... The whole spectrum of shade and shame as though culture failing was evaluating; time for nlightenment as to the value of the soul, for the first time at in Americana if not the world of western image-based culture; considered shame in its self, to shame... And finally ... that sort of look is appreciated and has its place - sort of ( it's a crock ) What happens immediately in succession ? Pandemic eats those that eat -

My biological hypothesis about evolution, when including infectious diseases ...is that children cull the herd of weaker adults - Their imperfect little still developing immune systems mutate something going around the community ...and then that more pernicious strain then takes out the weaker adults so that the adults can't have babies with inheritable/congenital weaker immune systems. So ...the next war, they should put all the babies on the front line and watch the opposing army all drop dead - the ultimate biological weapon. BABIES ... heh. It's just that every single one of my friends ...all of them ... said they didn't know what it was like to be feebled by illness until they put their kids through day-care!

Imperfect immune systems can do the same -

Nothing in nature or weather for that matter happens at the speed of Millennial's instant-gratification expectation time. Lol Everyone knows what 'this is over soon' means that is lucid and realistic. It's ending now S to N ...

This is almost over ... it may abruptly end when it does going by these data sources... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-conus-14-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KBOX&prod=BREF&bkgr=gray&endDate=20210805&endTime=-1&duration=3

Looks on radar like it's all en masse should accelerate out by early afternoon when using NCAR - NWS radar ...which is about as useful as tits on a buffalo and I don't/can't understand why that organization isn't answering to anyone for that piece of shit ... sorta looks the same

main westerlies have retreated into southern Canada ...leaving ill-defined whimp wave -ridge oscillations rippling through the 500 mb from D3-6 ... 7, over a region with 570 hydrostatic heights and diurnal ... I think someone is getting thunder one at least one and probably a couple of those days. How organized/structures probably depends -

Nice compromise ... it did bump east on whole, but really it is more like the gradient shrank in size. You go from .1" in tin to well over an inch across the width of townships down there. Whole nother look tomorrow. Should by 88/67 over metrowest to ASH-FIT-MHT

Meanwhile definitive western edge of leaf is clearing the Jersey coast. rad has a batch clipping eastern zones but unless it gets a ‘roid inject somehow the GFS East bias may win this thing … not seeing where a 2nd wave gets mechanical support either. it’s always tough along the western edge. remember the Euro’s 2’ phantom blizzard for NYC?

Lol ... this concept was floated in the early months of this thing ...way back there. Astute visions asked the question, is the reaction disproportionate and therefore MORE harmful. It's interesting how many isms were forethought and how few of them were actually tested or circled back on -

In the end its probably just component in the greater social experiment of this thing. It may mimic or formulate as though, casting off affectations of planned this and social-engineering that. But it's like the first time in history the entire world has gathered around a common interests and visions toward the same directive/goal, that did not require or result in a WORLD WAR. I've opined in the past, but it is a historic sort of ...well IS a watershed moment in history. But part of that is seeing it through? - I think... Like, we've come this far, now finish the task. A lot of the underlying motivation in urgency is a cultural abstraction/vibe more so then a disclosed or discretely observable directive. Think fad to see it through ... I think it's proportionality in a lot of ways. There have been anit-vaxxers and in general, eye-brow raising about vaccines since mid last Century. Yup. But, only now when it is possible to mechanize an entire billion population to that, and make surveilled by media coverage ... etc etc, the scale of awareness and anti-sentiment grows in direct proportion and seems now like a civil war of ideologies in the matter. So, us more passive types ...cerebral and observant about it, do "kinda sorta" get caught in the cross fire by wondering ... 'yeah, why is it so urgent' - it's probably more just grander awareness. I think LOL

mmm.. sentiment shared by a lot more folk than just yourself if it makes you feel any better.

Yeah, they're really helpful in CS, too. I called them and there was little hold time, and connected to competency - relatively savvy sounding level 1 support is probably all you'll need. Describe your symptoms vs needs, and that individual will probably ask you about gaming and station/port numbers in the household, etc... Y'all arrive at a model the best suits your need - I only went with the multi channel because at some point a spare bedroom ( was thinking...) would be converted to a nice home office, so I'd need access with lucidity from that area of the home...blah blah you get it. Shipping time was like 4 days. Problems solved -

LYNKSIS router - I have a 4-channel broadband WIFI powerful enough that SETI could operate out of the home - ha! I don't use 95% of the thing's capacity ... Yeah, maybe a bit of an over -purchase, but LYNKSIS tech support was indicating pretty convincingly that the state of the art/direction isn't going the other way, anyway. I was getting stalls and time outs with weather maps and satellite and porn (kidding). Then, work started booting me off their server. Database programming would hesitate too long compiling relatively non-taxing scripts. ...etc... Internet speed test was like 10 mps ... I'm thinking, whaaaaa In 2020? So, went on their website, figuring the near 15 year old router might be bottlenecking... and got this one for like 85 bucks... They start at 50 and go to 300 for multi- plex gaming and streaming throughout larger facilities, which I don't need. Got it out of the package, jumped through an hour of config and securities language I did not understand, but once all was connecting, now I'm haulin at 400 to 500 mps!! I've never gotten a hesitation while streaming NETFLIX shit since I got this, and weather satellite and mobile model loops rotate through their cinema without stalls on lap-tops. General web use loads pages from the future ....

ha, right - zactly

yeah, I seriously have been bugged for some time with thoughts about 'unplugging' COMCAST is arrogantly got the world by the ballz - or think they do. Are they aware there are other options? I just think their circuitry is unevolving and almost pure profit - I don't like orgs that just collect. The feckless nature of capitalism won't reduce prices in that state. The infrastructure is/has been in place, for some time. They do nothing that isn't software related ...and only roll-out minor changes that are over marketed but do nothing to enhance or improve jack shit. And infrequently to justify the average bill of 200 ( say ) $ per household, combined with untold business packages? I mean spanning some 200 million entities - They are a multi billion dollar gaping greed maw masquerading as a telecom service/organization and I would love to just stop throwing money into their throat. Obviously I'm being hyperbolic in jest and complaint to some degree... I have freinds that have cut ties. They went to another means to get good web service into the home, and then rely on that to service news to entertainment. Their lives - they've told me - were unchanged and nothing missed. That's part of the 'big cable' delusion - they seem to benefit from a kind of abstract fear that people/orgs/society et al have that they will 'miss out.' None of these cats miss games in sports. They know when bombs go off in cafes ... what celebrity o.d.ed, or stately figure or 'nobleman' got accused of rape, in the same space as anyone else. And the key is, they spend like 10... 20% of the previous conglomerate dependency model is/was. Jesus..why haven't I done this yet.

yeah ... tend to agree here. I opined and was ignore myself just an hour ago, how the Euro and now-cast (sat/rad/obs..) combined seemed to argue a slightly more evolved cyclogen. Albeit weak, ... the PWAT is exceptional. Like ... don't need a blow torch to ignite a nitro, just a subtle match'll do the trick. BOOM... choke rain off a butterfly fart. This latter metaphor is a lot of 'what this comes down to' just as well. I mean, where it rains as a result of lopping upper bound physical PWAT amounts over weak triggers, will make people think the Canary Islands went ahead a bifurcating sending a 1500' tsunamis clear to the Berkshire 'new coast'