Typhoon Tip

The model thinks it's autumn beyond D5 ... That's exactly what you would typically see on a 12 day evolution of a September 10th model run... Warm up followed by faux Sandy analog, with an uber deep trough phase... followed by another ridge way out there. It does this because it cumulatively lowers heights over the polar side/astride the ambient westerlies core as a running/continuous bias... such that by the time it gets to D7, it has some 6 dm of surplus cold non-hydrostatic heights in nodal lows and the ambience in some scenarios - getting into a different matter, but it just adds more jet velocity and wave propagation speed to an atmosphere that already has too much of it. But scooping of that cane and driving it into Maine is embarrassing -

It is, but I'm not liking the ens mean behavior. All three, EPS, GEFs and GEPs, have repositioned the accompanying 500 mb non-hydrostatic height axis some 200 to 300 clicks E of previous longitudinal fix, spanning the last three or four consecutive 12 hr run cycles. The trend is so coherent it almost looks like a progressive single model run... If it goes another two of those intervals, we end with a fast cool front and pancaked ridge mooshed S of DAY-PHL. The GGEM actually is the one guidance out of the three oper. version that's appears to have to balls to project a hint toward that possibility. Look Utica while Boston's in the 90s. I mentioned yesterday that the telecon was tepid for a heat signal then, and they still are. I guess all these aspects don't lend confidence. Not saying it won't tend the other way, but there's this hell bent obsession in the models to fire hose a Pac jet across the country like it's nearing Xmas. It's not really conducive to heat domes. Maybe it's just ends up a potent warm sector with typical failed convective threat.

PF ...looks like you got some summit glaciators along the Greens... Might be some photo ops -

yup... Not bad for this region considering the lead. But, that's not claiming much for the competency and climate awareness of the source lol.

Kind of unfortunate. Hate to say... I'd be willing to sacrifice tomorrow if we could go ahead and bust wetter. I don't care/want to get into any stein jocularity - frankly it's tediously boring and annoying... ha. I just don't want my lawn and flower beds to yellow/wither prematurely. My experience with that is, if that happens in May it never really recovers, even if it gets wet later on. Not a lawn care dude. - just sayin' what I've observed over the years.

Oh it's real .. I wouldn't say it is 'mini' at all. The Euro's been flirting with that thing coming down for days, .. mainly holding off, but the 00z run looks like it gets down to about mid coast ...but by then, it is a mini lol. I mean it's weakening.

It's one of those weird deals, isn't it? Yet if you look at satellite we're about to get 3 or 4" of tropical down pours overnight... But the models insist ... despite the shit show on satellite almost nothing happens in Boston ( at least...), only .2" in NYC/HFD. I hate this expression but perhaps it's apropos: 'dry begets dry' I suppose. 'Sides, if we're going to historic heat bomb next weekend, best not to lay down a lot of heat absorbing soil moisture ahead. Haha

'10 after 10' would get us close to our first 90 of the year but I'm not sure we'll make it. There's upper ceiling/'mare's tail' cirrus blow-off from that ruined Saturday stuff over the M/A. It's wafting up and appears to be getting more pervasive, per satellite. It might interfere with max heating. But ...we'll do 85 either way. That's a complete shit show from NYC south down the EC to the Va Capes though. I'm wondering if the models might have been too aggressive in decay rate - it's the old cut off that butt-banged SE zones last week and kept the whole region in neg departures for days. It rotated a slow death toward the SW... stalled, now its remnants rolls up the coast. F'n thing won't die! It is still weakening as it comes, but sat channels look like it's trying to claw enough residual life to be wet but warm (relatively) up this way later tonight and tomorrow. Either way, tomorrow won't be like today. After that, we may than finally normalize that thing out and be left with humid sun and TCU on Monday. Still looks like a breezy, seasonal cool back for a couple days mid week but as suspected ..the magnitude of CAA has been backing slowly off. I bet it ends up 70 with 28 mph wind gust type deal. High UV due to purified air. Then, we'll see if a heat wave is real -

Right ... 'Live free to profligate natural resources or die' lol

78 here by 9am Given the d(T) over the last hour it's fair to say we're nudging 80 already. The low was 66, which is whopper night anomaly for mid May. Some +14 before the sun.

That is one "hell" - perhaps literally ... - of a heat wave on the Euro operational next Fri-Sat-Sun. ( realize everyone's seen, just sayn'. From this range, if I were just to rely upon the two primary metrics, 850 mb temp, combining synoptic overview, that suggests at 91 entry with extraordinary launch pad am yielding 103 and 102 ... on consecutive afternoons over the weekend. Having not seen ens, RH fields/ceiling stuff... granted. Just an observation on that Euro run. That's a deep old Mexico injection source of some kind of EML or at minimum ultra kinetically charged 850 mb sounding layers. It is timed with and as there is +2 SD non-hydrostatic height expansion over top. Gosh forbid that expansion in geopotential heights should balloon even more more. Because that appears to maximize for/at 584 dm, what can hydrostatically occur within. In other words, the total behavior there is such that it was trying to be even hotter but you are actually looking at ceiling scenario - the only limitation is the non-hydrostat depth. If the geo hgts expand more, ...good luck.

yeah it's a good point Jerry made about 'ugliness' - ...that's a lingering question I have regarding the aesthetics of them. I don't want necessarily this rectangular object just protruding from a random wall in bulk. Maybe it can be adorned in some sort of indoor plants, drapery or a tapestry art or something? I dunno... But I'm wondering if the more recent technology is bit less obtrusive looking too. Few questions to get into still. Something different needs to happen, because this house is electric baseboard heat with dials on the wall... I dunno, from 1970 they look like. the covers are long gone exposing the guts, and they don't technically appear to work. You rotate the dial ...it 'clicks' and you hear the base board elements start knocking like they're old and don't want to. Then, it's a billion degrees even though you set the therm to 70.. it's like the sensors don't dim the circuit at the temp anymore. It's about good for on or off. Last year I updated all windows in the house with Power Home windows and they're really awesome. The next phase is the heating and cooling. Upstairs is a bread oven in the summer. Not sure why, but an 85 F afternoon is 93 on the 2nd floor of this small house.

yeah I've heard nothing but good feed-back. I'm (unfortunately..) seeking a new job. 8 contiguous years of decent salaried employment ended - on good terms ... but unexpected, nonetheless - back in January. Then, my sister collapse and death. Then I got Covid. Then I officially decided I hate god ... etc... you know, so a loaded plate has belated matters. But I'm interviewing now Anyway, that project was supposed to be done 3 months ago but I've had to put it off.

I don't know if that's a legit BD tho ? Firstly, I don't believe it's gonna be there - and obviously we both know it's conjecture at this range anyway. But, that comes in on a shallow NW trajectory, and then lays down briefly stationary along LI... That said, that appears to be artifact of the model bias at that range to me. Either way ... that's 101er at LGA and Logan pattern on Saturday.

I wonder if Logan/BOS puts up a good old fashioned 6:45 pm high temperature.

I don't think it's that moist, at least under foot. It can't be. Hasn't rained - at least here - in some 10 days or more, and we just went through a week of <30 DPs.... Plus, some yokel metrics of mine, like the brooks and Nashoba River flow rates, which typically run 90% or better this time of year, are less than that eye-ball capacity. .. lol... yeah so some guess work, but no - it hasn't rained in a long time. Now heat? Water table is different in hyrdology studies to surface strata...and as far as lawn care - which ironically ...I don't care haha - we'll see 'em start yellowing up sooner than normal if we don't get some rain at some point. There's QPF mottling the richer air on these charts, so it may be a moot thing if get some air mass activity bubbling over the next days.

84/ 66 ...can feel it. Just ( admittedly ) installed upstairs. I'm actually likely investing in mini-split tech over the next year, so installing will be a thing of the past. Friend of mine had those installed and said it's amazing how well they control the environmental RH and T, and don't really inflate e-bills.

81 here 6 ahead of yesterday ...

Yeeeah... barring things changing. In simple, looks like 3 or 4 days of relative heat here in the near term... 3 days of seasonal cool back ( probably more beautiful than annoying), followed by perhaps a repeat of 3 or 4 days --> Mem Day trace of snow at Tolland CT ... --> then we'll see if there a bigger heat signal into June. subject to change of course -

Yup, same here! All major species are flowering and leafing and not just figuratively, last week at this time only half were and many were nuclear still. First week of May no less.. There's been mixed opinion on whether this is was 'late' or not. Not here to argue. It may not have been. But I also suggest that we may have just come through 15 years where we've gotten used to earlier greening? so maybe this was more '1,000 year normal' so to speak. I don't know. But I personally know that several of the giant sugar Maples around my neighborhood were two weeks later than last year. It may be local noise too -

Yup! It's hard to do a more discrete reanalytic study of it. Heat waves were always either not recognized, or disrespected perhaps ... prior to Climate Change. But now? Their lead synoptic signals..et al, are finally getting recognition. I've opined this for years... but in short, the big five were always, "Tornadoes, Hurricane, Floods, Droughts, and Blizzards" (no particular order) Years ago... after some cold waves in the late 1980s were inspiringly gelid, and then the 1995 midwest heat dome nothwitstanding... I began to wonder why Heat(Cold) Waves were not included/expanded into that list. I mean hell...they actually incur significant commerce losses, not just health and safety - I mean the latter should have been enough, right? LOL. As to the heat source stuff... ah, just per my experience, I don't think so, anecdotally. I think back to the sweltering big dawg heat events of lore here, there's a kind of 'over-top' aspect to them. It's when the SW "volcano" belches a fire-ball into the flow. It smears out as it moves arcing over the top of a -PNAP coupled positive anomaly ...usually situated near Dayton OH... It's actually kinetically charged air that is by convention not saddled with surpluse theta-e.. That mixture of bio- continental ozone actually gets the HI up more so than the temperatures. So the "clean heat" descends on a NW or WNW trajectory, down sloping no less. We really have not seen that in recent years. The closest I saw to us getting Pac NW event here, was 2017 ... July 4 weekend. But it fell short because despite the historic non-hydrostatic heights ....towering to 606 dm!!!, there was no SW ejection into that pattern formulation. So we home grew/cooked our way to 96's over 75's within that Venetian height dome that actually left some on the table. The SW version that you describe - I would be more willing to guess is prevalent during sustaining warm seasonal biases, on whole.. Like you you know, the maintenance 91/75 crap, that only goes back to 87/64 before creeping back up, because there's a semi perm SE ridge tendency. That was like some of those 1980s and 1990s summers. 1995 had the big midwest/Lakes heat bomb, and that one certainly does match your notion of NW flow 'shearing' off the really bread oven stuff from getting in here... But that's a unique scenario... "Hot Saturday" in 1975 was kinetically charged plume that came down from 'over-top'.

Yeah...and in all seriousness, we do have to keep an eye on it as heat synoptic enthusiasts. For that, and perhaps risk assessing. Through the end of the month. (Mem Day weekend will have pingers and 40 F rain whether it is 1,000 F book ending it, come hell or high water) The PNA is inconsistently negative, and that is precarious for an eventual Sonoran or SW heat release into the downstream flow. This is interesting to me ... both the GGEM and Euro oper's show a 570 non hydrostatic closed anticyclonic node up there over Alaska. That's -EPO incarnate. Noormally by now, that should not mean much? The seasonal R-wave structures break down toward summer entropy ..etc. But there is an insidiously hidden faster than normal velocity of geostrophic wind over the total planetary scaled integral. It's forcing those synoptic super-structures to lag perhaps longer than normal. So a -EPO up there, crashing heights down the Great Basin couplet, sends heights up in the OV...viola! that drags the SW heat out and there we go. The GGEM flat out does that D8-10 ( 00z oper.).. It's ensemble mean is less though. But the oper run isn't impossible - it's showing what a slightly more amplified variant is capable of. That could still do all that despite the modestly -PNA/ +AO/NAO.

Mm hm ... sound analysis. And by extension ... that NW flow relaxing, then passes us through a structural interlude that risks BDs. It's like there are staged hurdles that need overcoming, in this order: NW --> BD --> laboring warm front from almost imperceptible surface CAD lag --> no apparent reason for warm frontal drag remains, yet it doesn't go through mystery --> finally... we're in the hot air ... for 10 minutes before a the main CF. Meanwhile everyine west of ALB got at least hot regardless of any of those scenarios ... ( yes this is dripping with snark )

If I had a goatee stroking muah hahaha weather machine and could like ... aim it? I would tease up an experiment where I programmed 38.47" inches of stalled 80 dbz thunderstorm rains ... Houston tropical storm style, right over his house and yard, just for the shear experimental muse of testing whether the frequency of those desiccation dystopian drought tweets might actually go down... That would be a neat experiment. And also, possibly even a working solution toward a reality where we never read one of those again!

Yeah..just wrote a tl;dr to Brain about the GFS next weekend. It may be right in principle, purely based on our sore-butt climate. Lol. But the way it is going about doing that is not likely correct, imho. It really appears to generate heat lows and then 'thinks' its own creation is a cold front after the fact. That would all by definition be an artifact - perhaps less true, but we'll see.