Typhoon Tip

Wow. That may be the biggest about face in a single run I’ve ever seen. ICON is is mostly sunny. Pretty sure the 12z was warning event … heh

I'm sure y'all have covered this ... as we did countless times in the 2,000 page super thread last year ... but it won't becuase from cottage industry to 800 lb gorilla scales, the concept of COVID has become too industrialized. It's got a profit interest now... That's basically going to protract it - and there are enough toe-the-line population that will gladly enforce and set rules based for what has become incorporated. It is just as much endemic to our species, as it is genetic to global economy - Oh it'll switch from COVID to just riding the germaphobia that it has triggered ...

We just need this so dubbed 'Dooms day glacier' to go ahead and unleash the back-held weight of a small continent in ice, ...and have it cataclysmically slide one afternoon into the sea... effectively setting off a global two foot tsunamis that doesn't go back out to sea.

This is just an arbitrary member .. but there a lot with this look -

Not to turn on the d-drip and walk away but ... just got around to looking over some of those individual 12z GEF members. HUGEly improved consensus over 00z for one just in general. But, 10 or so individual members have very large snow ( yes SNOW!) totals falling in a short period of time between 144 and 156/168 hours. The storm is moving right along, but in those members, it appears enough anyway. They cross the bomb threshold, ... large QPF totals on the west side of neg tilted trough/wind max along ideal trajectory; riding up immediate astride NJ-MA. There is probably has excessive frontogen UVM banding in the I-95 collocation... probably why they are turning the moisture upside down. I mean ... not to get into details. LOL No but it is a lot of fun to see this cinema... I give you that. It's been a while since we could enjoy a good game of speculation pong

or those savvy I'm actually curious what the 18z Euro suite signals out there near the edge

For entertainment only: ... this is this thing's might without the western ridge kickback As a result of this it is consequentially moving fast - which would limit some impacts if so. Real concern: But again.. I want see what the ridge does in the model runs about 48 hours from now. We have seen plenty times in the past, the Pac forcing adjust those bigger(smaller) in the boundary of the short and mid ranges.

I here you! But in all honesty .. my "menace" in the ending context there was for amplitude alone ... I just don't have insight into ptype from this range - not that anyone cogent does... just sayn' again, ...for the general reader, this is a higher confidence track-able aspect,alone. We are prooobably 2 days from details in normalcy/model error climate if you will. The speed of the flow and the low arc height of the western ridge isn't helping matters, because for every radii we lose, we increase the dreaded needle thread aspect. Thing is... you could just get incredibly fortunate ( notice I didn't say "lucky" hahaha ), and have the ridge go amp while nudging east. You could successfully place a slowing bomb in just the right location by dart method It's almost scary that the EPS and GEFs essentially have the placement - we wait on the bomb. It's got a lot of power man. wow. Really. In a corrective scope, you drive the ridge in the west with lowered static heights over Florida and that thing is a candidate for exception mid level depth near the Del Marva.

Some quick observations I've made during the day ... The pattern reshuffle with a restructuring of the PNA relay into N/a is quite likely and legit. Entering into this new regime... we kick things off, D6/7, with coastal. 1 ... yesterday I surmised the Archembault scenario pretty hard.. However, upon really focusing on the behavior of the individual GEF members ( because my life is so fulfilling and pithy in meaning, otherwise...) I don't get the sense that is what is happening over the course of the week ... leading any would-be event on D6/7. It appears we merely have a well time, yet potent Pac injection of S/W mechanics, taking some advantage of the reduction in negative interference east of 100 W across the continent. By the time this feature nears the lower OH Valley ..D5 or so... the ridge is essentially gone..."almost" but not quite down to the climate height signal over the TV. Immediately aft of this S/W, there is modest albeit crucial .. ridge growth over the Rockies .. then nudging east, as a responses to the PNA forcing. 2 ... that ridge is key ...I really think the biggest sensitivity for how the D6/7 evolves will come down to the handling of that aspect of the total L/W space. If the ridge remains flattish... then we prooobably deal with more a NJ model detonation of sorts... If it ends up more amplified - which is a correction vector for such a steeply rising PNA index, btw ... - then we'll have to contend with future guidance trending slower and potentially deeper, with more actually H.A. look. Such a system could even find its way toward the eastern Lakes, give to the lack of downstream exertion for having lost the western limb of the NAO. In fact, the latter is positive by then. Those are my two main take aways for where things set up now. Obviously...subject to change. ...as an after ob/thought.. .that S/W is really is deceptively powerful. It has jet max over 110 kts at 500, and nearing 150 kts at 300 mb ... as it is torpedoing over the MS Valley around 96 hours. This intense jet core has been very consistent ... regardless of the total L/W amplitude and whether it gets any physical help that way. Should the western ridge pop as a future correction in guidance, this thing could become a menace.

I mean with storm climo the way it’s been in recent years … one blockbuster should end any debate.

Actually a fuzzy signal mid month, too -

Yeah... mistake wandering over there. heh

Ah ... again, I wanna stress for those that really kinda sorta 'need to see these model runs deliver' ... best not to focus or 'look' rather for details at this range. I mean, 7 days - this is a favorable synoptic super structure evolving, that has the benefit of an Archembaultian system embedded - it's true that a storm is higher confidence. I would say 'favors' cold p-types, but that is by no means a declarative. I guess my point is, your going to get ticked off waiting run to run for ticks. LOL

Really ... on the treadmill at the gym; hadn't seen it yet

Echoing Will's post: this is impressive signal for D7/EPS mean

Re the D7/8 event: I don't have any apps installed where I can very readily generate looping slide shows... but I'd like to do that with the GEFs and GEPs ( https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2021123112&fh=162 ) ...going back four cycles. You can definitely see the mean is shifting SW down the coast in both, and the total spread is shrinking. It's already a decent signal as of these 12z means. It appears the operational versions of both these ( in fact the Euro comparatively too - ) may be west outliers by a considerable margin.

"Lost"? ...ha... I know what you mean but... just still establishing a favorable interval with this. The PNA mode change is quite likely real, having every ensemble system ( haven't seen the Brazilian ....) indicating a mass field flip in key regions, usually doesn't go down without storm(s) - that's the focus. As far as D7, I agree... I would advise folks that the ensemble means at this range are probably more telling - ...fwiw, therein most of those are more coastward oriented.

Fwiw - the operational GFS look similar, but it's ensemble mean ( GEPs for that matter, too ) have been trending more coastal. This is the scatter plot range for this sort of early .. long lead outlook/risk assessment.

To me that ( bold ) is above median/climate probability ...pattern reshuffle. yeah. There's going to be event(s) 'precipitating' ( haha sue me!) following out of that... Models will wander a bit at this range - duh. Some runs more onto it, then fade...bring it back. ...blah blah. But I think the D7-ish is the first of the plausible scope(s) of interest. As far as cutter versus coastal... I dunno - that's again going to be speculation. Everything is at this range... But with the NAO going away, that does sort of leave room for Lakes cutter. I would look for the N-S component of the larger R-wave amplitude as the PNA index is rising this week. If that emerges with a lot of N and S ...that means that we dig earlier in the trough sequencing with that 130 hour S/W coming through the West... That would tend to signal DTX routing. The Pacific will instruct the future details as to where the ridge and trough axis align, and goes without saying... at D 6 to 8 range that can vary 1,000 naut miles in a single cycle. I mean you hope it doesn't for headache's sake -

try not to get bogged down/hopeful based on details - just some friendly advice, for the general reader. The purpose is recognition of certain markers/metrics of large synoptic envelope, those that have parlayed favorably in the past. This is one of those times... How that will manifest in the "giddy" department, ...that's days off. That said, there is no harm in speculation only, as to how details may emerge ...modeling cinema therein support or against...etc. By the way, the GGEM trended at 12z ... really close to coalescing closer to the coast... In fact, that giant open nucleus you see over central and southern NE is a smoking gun for problems resolving at this time range. One run among many... but illustrates that point:

Tru - but ... I don't care? I don't. I just like this method because it has worked ...many times in the past, for 'early detection' What actually comes of it? yeah...it could be a siggy coastal storm as I intimated. It could certainly be just a colder - more convincing - pattern. But I am higher confidence that there is a pattern reshuffle on the doorstop here, and it starts entering the picture over the course of the next week. The system on D7 fits that mode-change statistical correlation for storminess. Basically that whole post could be summarized in those two bold statements. However big or fast moving, or whatever aside. So, we'll see.

Confidence should be higher for this particular coverage, than any other preceding so far this cold season and time frame for the purposes of early detection. Focus is January 6-7-8 What was was merely zygote yesterday, overnight down right embryonic with an early heartbeat. As the for the specifics of this eastern N/A mid latitude amplification... it would be set to materialize in the D6 to 8 range... more likely centered on D7. SO, there is inherent risk in attempting a deterministic forecast for this love child. Yup but ... this isn't an impregnated crack-whore here. This is well-to do wealthy couple of families with good genetic pedigree, doing an arranged marriage with two early adults that actually find one another attractive - ... i.e., this child's prospects for actually being born are pretty good. Longer analysis: Multi sourced agreement was very zygote yesterday ...as others were/have been commenting. There better 'looks' materializing in each respective model type run cycles, spanning the last day's worth. At the time ( commented on this late in the afternoon ... heavily concerted agreement among the GEFs -based telecon for the -PNA to recover toward neutral. I believe Scott might have also mentioned the GEF improvements ...etc. Last night that become exceptionally pronounced! The EPS at a glance would appear to support this idea in principle, of a -PNA release in lieu of a more seasonal looking PNAP construct to the flow as we end week one and head into week two ( I don't see the EPS numerical equivalent/calculations as I am a cheap douche that doesn't like paying for something that we can all see just by having a clue and looking at the height distributions among the various mass-field domains... but that's just me). The impetus in this show-and-tell is that is a WHOPPER correction event implication there. That is about as concerted agreement among the ensemble system of members as is mathematically possible. The first 7 days, ending roughly on the small annotated circle you see above(right), shows essentially 0 deviation along that very intense rise in the index - I'd almost go so far as to characterize that as a 'whiplash' event - something is snapping massive disruption thru the previously semi-permanent stasis in the Pacific North-American circulation manifold, and that kind of disruption almost has to incur some sort of balancing/restoring event. Commonly referred to 'Archembaultian in following from her science back in the day. Meanwhile, the operational guidance versions are all in what is really for this time range a pretty spectacular agreement regarding the principle components for this early detection. Sorry to emphasize that like I'm yelling ( lol..) I just want this as a learning chance for how these things can sometimes beat/win against the early doubt machine of the typical long lead, model fantasy storm. This one ... mm, isn't that. This aspect above is crucial as we head through the week - we need to see these larger scale concepts gain continuity in the guidance. But therein, they are also rooted ( if not just exquisitely well timed..) within the same frame work of that impressive PNA jolt further above. I've referred to this in the past as the "Miami rule" - I've come to find that it does pretty good as an index finger rule. This is about as detailed as I will get at this range, but as a significant S/W is being ejected through the west, we look to the SE U.S. and adjacent Gulf/Florida skies and off the SE U.S. coast. If the heights are at or above 582 decameters over Miami Florida, and/or the balanced non-interference geostrophic wind is over 50 kts... negative interference is in play... as the S/W in question begins damping and reducing mechanical power as it descends toward the Tennessee Valley. These annoted frames above, show that this is not the case. Which in its self is ...really pretty f'n remarkable considering another avenue of discussion. Bottom line, since this would-be system is emerging as one rooted deeply in a strong statistical correlation (Archambault), with the above PNA mode changes, this significantly weights confidence ... far more so in my perception comparing any other system so far that may have appeared favorable this year. No need going into how well those turned out, huh. As a conceptual aside: I also recall a sentiment I proposed last week or so ...regarding pattern gestation lengths. Seldom do patterns lock for longer than 90 days. The system is inherently too dynamic to all for that to happen, with too many competing forces in Earth's total atmospheric engine to do "Red Spots". In fact, the mean pattern time span, ...as we used to discuss in FAST way back in the day... is about 45 days. Patterns may reload... but they will almost invariable go through a 'reset' or some sort of R' rollback/progression for an interim. Or, the new paradigm sticks and represents a more fundamental change that will in its own right last for several weeks. This PNA mode change appears to be connected to changes in the EAMT - can't recall the Met poster who brought this out last week with some nice animations, but this is suspiciously timed with that, and may in fact be a planetary wave# event.

Does seem that way. But I also wonder how common they ever really were? Tempted to say 300 yr mean is 1::4 or 5 but the last 10 yrs have blown up multiple signals regardless.

Which is still abysmally mank infested misery outside. The Great Winter Of Zero Redeeming Value. At this rate I’d rather it 50 above normal.

Basically … a general shit winter with an interlude or two of tacit favorability La Nina’s are supposed to be front loaded winters. Yet another ENSO climate failure … It’d be really funny if the winter is back loaded or even mid