Typhoon Tip

Actually … starting to get that “staged” arrival look hinted now, too. - total negative EPO and nadir of the flow in southern Canada more towards the end of next week. I mentioned this the other day… Seldom do we go directly from 70s to 30s without at least an interlude in the 50s in there and it’s possible that the first shot of cold air from Sunday into Tuesday sort of moderates into that range. 54/27..48/23 Ensembles of euro and gefs and the operational to some degree show better flex in the new pattern deeper next week So we’ll see.

Status quo this morning … changing of the hemispheric guard enters personnel rotation this weekend and the incoming administration has very different legislation in mind. New policy okays winter storms and even opens the reception hall as early as D 6..7 .. not sure if the guests will actually arrive - not getting much in the way of RSVPs on that. Could just be a DJ with his arms crossed talkin to the hottie maitre d’

Does look kinda hand drawn by a puerile high schooler huh

Interesting battle between climatology vs the pseudo-deterministic ensemble means of really all them. D10 off this 12z EPS for example, ... winter enthusiasts would be hard pressed to find a better construct for delivering the good, and doing so now officially entering the annual solar min months as of today. Climo still lurks... namely the lag typically claims November in head and heart aches as we know. It's that flow against SE/'Nina' residue - which ... this autumn is also placating my personal argument space ( frankly) in that the ENSO autumn is a vastly over rated aspect. Leave it at that.. If this were DJF with that look and it didn't produce ... nothing will. November has weasel out room though. We'll see if it squirms or delivers.

“O. I. C.” …all clear to me now

Multi faceted minor to moderate threat potential’s over the next 10 days to two weeks… no shortage of draws into this or related hobbies and professions. 1 .. obviously as people are aware …”Nicole”. Does she interact and gets entangled in the events over the weekend and in what form does the cyclone take… My guess is a smear as it comes up but it will enhance the overall dynamics along/ahead the pattern change/entry arriving through that time. 2 .. The nature of the pattern change itself is rather extreme considering going from possibly 75 to 80° on Thursday and then struggling to make 50 on Sunday and no hope of really getting any warmer than that for the rest of the following week. In fact I would qualify that as a cryo-supporting atmosphere but since there isn’t seasonal snow on the ground over the continents north and west of us the air mass is not conserved just yet. Nonetheless thicknesses would still support so any system that does manufacture… 3 .. I suspect the system D7-ish is real I don’t know if that’s going to affect us or not but I suspect there’s at least going to be a system formulating along the suppressed baroclinic axis W-E thru the Tennessee Valley or possibly Miller A distinction … D6 ish then a progressive system. If it clips the area … we’re watching for first synoptic white chances. … seems there’s another system trying emerge closer to the 19th in negotiation. Also within the new colder circulation type… Im incline to start a ‘low probability’ thread for the 14/15th for monitoring but I’m at work

18z GFS's hitting the 15-20th period ... Wouldn't hold one's breath over details... it's really more an homage to potential. It's not just the sloped flow crossing the border, but the ambient baroclinicity is going to be a powder keg with an abrupt -EPO burst loading cold in, and at least a transient +PNAP working to against the SE heights.

“….The research spearheaded by Scott Evans, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Geosciences, part of the Virginia Tech College of Science, shows this earliest mass extinctionof about 80 percent of animals across this interval. "This included the loss of many different types of animals, however those whose body plans and behaviors indicate that they relied on significant amounts of oxygen seem to have been hit particularly hard," Evans said. "This suggests that the extinction event was environmentally controlled, as are all other mass extinctions in the geologic record." Evans' work was published Nov. 7 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences. The study was co-authored by Shuhai Xiao, also a professor in the Department of Geosciences, and several researchers led by Mary Droser from the University of California Riverside's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, where Evans earned his master's degree and Ph.D. "Environmental changes, such as global warming and deoxygenation events, can lead to massive extinction of animals and profound disruption and reorganization of the ecosystem,…" thank God there’s no evidence of environmental changes specifically related to global warming and/or deoxygenating and it’s all a hoax then. Phew

Do days of averages and it might even be right back to this warm on Thursday and Friday

Just going from this afternoon to tomorrow morning is gonna be weird I mean it’s mid upper 70s across the area and we’re going to frost tomorrow morning probably in the interior

The ensemble means of all the models have been actually more encouraging than the operational versions for winter enthusiasts. a very nice scaffolding over our side of the hemisphere… So long as that is the case… we can bide time with the operational versions. Sometimes you can go in and out of a pattern like that and have nothing happen but more often something emerges eventually.

Order to cash in on a winter storm I mean…

Yeah I noticed the split. Anyway the euros been kind of volatile in that time range. I think this run is just another peregrination along the journey towards whatever is actually going to happen… But I do think whatever is going to happen is going to feature that negative EPO. And the Canadian shield’s gonna have to answer to it in terms of being cold - how much so …again is it seasonally cold, or usually anomalous? I don’t know exactly. But either way gives us a standby status we don’t need to be exceptionally cold once we get past November 15 or whatever.

That is a weird look on the euro day 6 through 10. Exceptionally top-heavy negative -EPO/-PNA

Wow. Not one word of interest over that Dakotas blizzard.

How does somebody actually get banned?… Whatever havppen to Phineas and why/

I mean obviously people are more concerned about whether it’s snowing or not so it is what it is but all the models are of coming in here at 12 Z with some more than mere cold snap looking pattern constructs. ..deep cold transport between probably between D7 and 12

Yeah it’s for fun but I think I saw 516 thickness in cold continental conveyor that reall ultimately originates up in the Northwest Territories That would basically have us with temperatures in the 20s around the 18th of the month probably WC .. single digits or below zero given that the winds probably gusting to 40 miles an hour… Basically it has suppressed all warm hydrostats to just Texas the Gulf and Florida

man the ggem certainly doesn’t hold back any restraint for front loading

Looks like we may be heading for some impressive snow totals up there in the Dakotas… perhaps even eye-popping. I mean they’re going to be getting mangled aggregate mixed with stuck together sleet bombs …going over to powdered snow and then falling at choke intensities with winds gusting probably over 45 miles an hour for a solid 15 hours up there … Heh could easily see that being one of these attribution wet dreams. Anyway doesn’t last unusually long but looks like some unusual heavy snowfall rates for an area the country that typically has more cold and wind associated with their winter storms rather than super deep snow. Would be interesting to compare that to climo for that specific region

yeah ..he's right. That system is a needle threader - probably half -assed commits to secondary but not enough, and a primary that cuts White Plains NY to Portland ME. Marginal systems before Thanks Givings tend to end wetter/cat pawing. But could begin white... cold Novie rain! The main aspect for me though is not whether it snows - that is a bona fide synoptic winter event,whether it cuts just W like that or somehow threads under our latitude, or not. The advent is significant, particularly considering (at that time) the cold layout over the Canadian shield - not hugely anomalously deep, but a lot of integrated mass. Additionally, the ens mean and oper. versions of GFS/Euro are hefty with yet another -EPO pulsation up there... these are indicative. The correction vectors are pointed colder, not warmer for a change. I find it interesting ...this is a full/whole scale pattern change, which appears to be stable ...with west coast of N/A extending around to western Europe ending up in a stable planetary wave length scheme between D6-10 (ending) at mid latitudes... The Pacific also appears well behaved, with not a lot of suggestive/extrapolation toward changing the feed into the Alaskan sector heights. Unsure about transience ... It's been a long while since we early performed winter season - but that stability argues at least some longevity - I mean not merely one event amid a cold snap. *IF* these observations in guidance fail to actually materialize, yes. Otherwise? this is probably prologue to an early performing winter. I'd lean that way due to several more out-of-box telecons...ranging from QBO to solar to volcanism to NINA's tending to perform early... This is a spectrum of interesting convergence in telecons. Any one of which is likely meaningless, but en masse? - might just be a reason why this has materialized.

12z GFS is a buzz kill... man. I rather liked the subtle split flow evidenced by prior cycles...leaving some meandering disturbances in the S to zygote storms. This 12z run is attempting to transition from ...whatever this screwy thing is, directly into a compressed N-stream storm suppressor pattern. Heh. I dread this in January actually... if perhaps a warmer version of it. But for now, hoping that's just the GFS being the GFS at D6-11 ...

by the 20th... ( not a condescension wink - just in deference to last week)

Writing a risk assessment is giving fits this week .. jesus christ. I mean, there's measurable impacts, but also intangibles here, due to acclimation concerns. Civility, steeped in complacency from weeks of non-impact, warmer than normal abandon ... gets hit by hemispheric anchored winter Week-2. Ranging to the Energy markets - how to impress to them that meters are about to spin fast enough to drill holes through the homes they're attached to. But that's also the rub because ... this pattern that arrives on the heel of next weekend's ?near miss tropics? ( I mean if that were not enough?!), but sure bet frontal wind/squall whip, could either bring impact cold, or just seasonal cold. Which? Either way, the abruptness is a uniquely interesting aspect in itself. Typically, we don't go from 80F ( or 70 for that matter)...directly to cryo supportive air masses. This is attempting to do so... Usually, there is an interceding step in there. You know? Like, it goes from continental whack-job heat, to an intermediate half way for a couple days or even a week... then, a deeper polar front comes in... two days later, first snow. This is attempting to go from 77 to 42... 30s in the high country, immediately. In a pattern that is rife with clipper snow shots. I mean, lots of vectors of uncertainty going on in all that 'violence' as you say.

Be that as he may … he’s on point and likely correct with that.