Typhoon Tip

And I don't even like running in this shit.

This is quite the jet anomaly for so late in the year... Fast flow is like the new Earth-paradigm. Jesus christ

maybe even 'wind chill' how that happens... Sap starts dripping from twig ends on some species in early March. We used to collect 'sapsicles' ... I wonder if the windier than normal conditions/CAA transports is key in that, because evaporation off the sprout points - dry air cooling.

As good as any reason I've heard, yeah. I did consider that but I don't - personally - know how these above ground leafers know. How do they detected DP?

you like hard freezes in May ? Lol - ... I know. Not sure about up where you are... but down here what's likely happen is a 24 hour abrupt rebound when this unrelenting NE trade flow finally collapses. Maybe late tomorrow for you, early Wed in NYC ...est. But the stymieing to rise has less transition time, sort of right to tower temperatures in lockstep with the cold feed abatement. Machine guidance will undersell the rebound when the gradient falls to 0 and/or zephyrs in reverse.

Cool - definitely ... interesting study!

The Norwalks maples did flower around town about 2 weeks ago.. But they are in no hurry to unfurl actual leafs and the flowers are still in suspended bouquet. It's a wonder what drives this ... Average April temperatures, or even above by decimals ..., neither lends to 'behind schedule' canopy. I suspect - no proof... - that the nights being elevated ... sorta like "lied" about the what's been going on. I wonder if the day time cold blustery aspect some how slammed things shut. It's all conjecture for me. Botany's not my thing

Not here ... I admit to wondering this just about every spring ( haha) - whether the leaf out is late and all that jazz. But this year? No question - no wondering about it. The larger trunk types, like sugar maple and oaks. and other major player tree species have almost nil bud swell. I DEFINITELY have never seen us enter the 2nd week of May, with those tree types still dormant.

It just seems ( straw man ) like the warm up for the end of the week has been abused by the models. They keep manifesting new reasons to limit the residence of the general ridge appeal. The latest renditions have included BDs Thursday ... which, one cannot argue really against given the local climate. But within a run or two, that's backed off and we see less of that. Can't leave well-enough alone, though ...now, the models are bullying in a rapid flip of the -PNA (the oper's have been struggling to avoid all along) right back into a +PNAP. It's sort of a new forcing but between this front side oddity collapsing S down the MA ... taking ages to do so and gobbling up time, and that new aspect in the extended, this warm up we've been waiting for is really not far from being taxed down to a mere daily warm sector.

You have to consider the air mass's source-origin ( straw man). Draw a line on a map from about Portsmouth, NH to Willimantic, CT ...anywhere west of that ~ demarcation, a NE wind is not bad or necessarily 'cold' in this scenario. That gradient/trajectory is pulling down from a region exhausted of cold, and is in fact capable of warming under both May sun, and tending to be d-slope. East of that approximate line ... there is more modulation by the ocean...but even here, this air mass is not like an afternoon aggressive sea breeze, where the air temp that's moving west is a direct SST processed air mass and thus reflects the Harbor temps. Long of the short ... despite the onshore look of the gradient through early Wednesday, those interior/west zone will make out for some nice afternoons, as the gradient also gradually eases and the skies get more and more clear. Already markedly improved sky conditions... Morning vis loop suggests it may also evap further (trend) and really just expose us to more sun even today.

00z NAM lowered ceiling RH substantially from BOS to ALB tomorrow. < 50% connotes clearing.

These are as a result of dry air layers penetrating the rain seeded sounding. Evap cooling off the surface of hydro meteoroids can cause them to freeze. It’s not the same as as a winter sounding. This occurs just about once every spring when large differentials between T and TD … having wet bulb below freezing. I’ve seen it do this as warm as 50 F at the sfc. Light rain with sleet pellets mixed in. Usually it happens at the onset. This now is happening as dry air invading after the fact.

Not going to happen either.

Still holding a 78 to 88 ( top down) type look from Thur - Monday ... That occurring would certainly be a stark jolt for a region that's pinged a roasting 73 only three times since March. Not sure a buy the Euro's steady diet of BDs Thurs on... Takes risk at this time of year, I know - but it appears to artificially lower maritime heights/bully in, which is a bias for that model in the mid range... That's what causes that to happen.

The low is filling as it is also moving S ... Wind dies for both reasons. Tomorrow might be nicer than we've been advertised. Not warm by any measure, but we have broad sky lights opening up here in the interior N of the Pike...a trend that's likely to continue and be more pervasive tomorrow given where all's heading.

52 here with occasional breeze but the winds slackening off in the last couple of hours ..albeit slowly. Mowed the lawn, then took to clean up ... raking/thatching, minor landscaping and so forth. Even at 52 was beading sweat at times. It's really the perfect temperature for doing that kind of yard toil - even 70 with sun would be sack sticking, eye stinging, back soup with probably weed toxin welts itching shins and forearms like a pox festival... It's dry and no high sun. Perfect for doing that kind of work. you should get out there -

Not to celebrate it but it is fantastic as an image ... lots like this too around California and the surrounding west..

A thinning tendency is eroding S through the denser canopy. Showed up at the region doorstep right around 12z ..and looping sat since, you can see it eroding SW through N-E zones. There's still 300 mb milk and mare noodles stringing out over top, but you can see the 700 to 500 mb layer is calving backward - probably that dry air. Models did well to time that.

That models is at minimum ... figuratively inventing reasons to eat away at the temperatures at the end of the week. ~120 hour oblong U/A structure, I bet money, is an artificial construct of whatever bs they're doing for controls in the machinery of the Euro. If it's going to all turn out tepidly warm instead of mid 80s, so be it... but the atmosphere has to realize a lot of nuances the Euro appears to spontaneously inject into the synoptics out there. Seldom when a model gets cute D5-7 do the dailies go on to reflect those details. It seems like a scenario where the 4-D 'noise' smoothing isn't working too well. Maybe because the ridge is top heavy and the whole domain is inverted - somehow that turns that off.

It's actually really pleasant here today... No shits yet - Ayer pinged 65 ... now 64 with clear air and zip wind. The only detractor is the pal cast with orb sun only dimly visible. But at least it's dry. It's just nice, no more, no less. As the low south passes by we'll freshen up the wind, but I've seen this before ... That wind may not penetrate that far inland. The low is filling as it descends S after 12z tomorrow.. That'll impart 35mph gusts into the city, but by the time you hit Arlington/Waltham, it's lost momentum. Flags are waving, not snapping. Get out toward I90 and there's even calm moments. I'm not sure how pessimistic it really turns out N of the Pike given to winds tending to relax, rain never getting there, for areas W of 95 through tomorrow night.

GGEM on board for Thur - Sunday big time reversal in sensible weather... Daily thickness swells from 564 at dawns, to 572 dam, with +14 to 17C at 850s through the period in both guidance, with only convective debris at dawns yielding to lowering ceiling RH before TCU refire in afternoons. ... probably 85 to 88, but 90 not out of the question in the GFS.

Ha ... 'little uneasy adding the fore and aft days to that stretch ...just based upon unrelenting persistence to f'up warm signals this spring. But yeah. I like the 16.5 C at 850 mb Saturday 21z as the mean between NYC and y'all central folk up there, with a DPs over 60, and mottled QPF.. It's indicative of TCU fun, too. It's literally, not just figuratively deep summer, right down to the smell of the air - which we haven't even sniffed yet.

12z GFS looks like full-on summer, next Friday through Sunday

Cat paws if not a mangled 'chute or two in the Poconos tonight...

00z GFS says 'late not denied' on warm anomalies finally getting in here ... Late Thursday through the weekend as everyone can see there. 06z GFS, not so much...cancels it out entirely. Two runs, two distinctly different synopsis from Wed on this next week. The models are not really required to be hugely correct at this range - although, they had better be when there's a 959 mb low sitting between Cape May and Cape Cod, with a 1045 mb high N of Maine.... of course! But that 06z GFS never gets the ridge axis to pass through at all.