Typhoon Tip

The scalar comparison is for all intents and purposes dead nuts imho. I think you mean Christmas massacre? However, 2015 likely/necessarily wins relative to climate. It was 71 Xmas morning... I recall a town walk with the family in cargo shorts and sandals. I almost felt embarrassed, perhaps 'mocking' and setting myself up for neg karma for it. Over the course of the walk, I just got lost in acceptance..I recall distinctly a kind of Stockholm Syndrome: sympathizing entirely with warm enthusiasts. The immersion was too enrapturing to ignore.. I mused, ".. fine, let's do this through spring and really rattle the climate change cages" LOL. Little did we know, huh - But yeah, we're doing something similar this morning actually.. the old cool front before the real cold frontal wedge of 'warm-able' air, and it might actually be similar synoptics.

I realize the GGEM ( Canadian model ...) isn't very high on people's deterministic priority list, but that model's extended range is seriously loading the hammer cold into the Canadian shield! Much more deeply so comparing it's supposed superior competition in the Euro. It's interesting because all three still show the strong -EPO burst. The synoptic appeal not significantly different from one another to suggest meaning. Days 6 - 10 swells the heights dramatically over the eastern limb of the EPO domain region... Yet, there is the significant disparity among the guidance as to the mass/cold loading that results over Canada. The reason I'm bringing this up is because these -EPO ... I've seen this before. The scale and extent of cold that results down stream is not always correct and can get colder - the models see the mid/U/A table cloth, but don't set it right below until nearer terms ( so to speak..). I've been thinking for awhile that this -EPO is quite strong looking - 'where's the beef!?' It's an attribute the models can fumble with. Not sure the guidance advancements over the recent decade really necessarily improve that one specific performance - 'cold loading over Canada'. Maybe... But the GGEM is < -30C at 850 over a fairly large area mid continent. The Euro is just -22, within a much smaller circumvallate of -20 in pocketed plumes. That's deeply cold, but not entirely bonkers for November above the latitude of Lake Superior. The GGEM is HUGE in areal comparison and much deeper by as much as -12 to -14 C! ... GFS is in between... It has the deeper cold, but creates a kind of W-E barrier jet across JB that ablates it from getting much farther S out in the deep range. I guess there no guarantee that a -3 SD EPO has to load the cold all the way down.. but the GFS's construct does look unusual. It also rushes the end of the -EPO, and tries to send the hemisphere winter packing... Mm. Okay. who knows on that.

Just offering some perspective.. Exceptionally warm DP transport scenarios are not that uncommon in autumn/early winter ... in fact, we've observed at least mid 60s DP events in all months. The return rate for the > 65 ... just estimating from arm-chair memory, 7 years? I've seen it be 71/70 with gusts from the S several times in December over the last 30 years. One year I think we had the highest DP of the calendar year at Logan in one of these in the 1990s, when it was 73 or something crazy - don't quote me. The advent in its self does not impress me nearly as much as the longevity in this case. This has hung in the air for 30 or more hours. More typically, as a cyclone transits through the Lakes, a transient albeit deeply tapped subtropical conveyor spans the distance up the Apps/coastal plain... transporting melted butter air all the way tp Maine. But that WCB aspect is like < 12 hour ordeal ... ending sharply on the canonical front. The primary front's just clearing the region ... exposed by the broken ribbon echo squall on radar that just raced through. Had 20 seconds of <1/4 mi vis rain billowing off roof eaves and waving down the road surface, ...over. Dead calm. So the sharp end occurred well enough. However, the cold lags and it's mild the rest of the afternoon ... delaying. Adds to the oddity a little.

We can tell by the content of your blizzard threads

mm i'd also consider ice option next Wednesday in the deep interior/drain routes.

Yeah I don’t know I was pretty vocal about not being sure whether it was seasonal cold versus something more extreme myself. I remember saying that to Will. So it still doesn’t look very clear to me. There are reasons not to rush the cold east that get into sort of a TL; DR I can’t stress enough that these models tend an amplitude magnification for anything really being handled, facet or events, beyond ~ D 5 I’m not saying it won’t get very cold and sport a big snowstorm. You know the 540 dm hydrostat’s going to align between roughly Indianapolis and Boston and oscillate up and down. With a colder total troposphere than anything we’ve experience to date, so if nothing else it’s a pretty coherent step down

Heh. It’s normal crowd physical group theory lol … give it enough time they’ll be speaking an entirely new language, too and in that new vernacular they’ll have codified 72 different words for snow

NAM is sufficient in the outer grid intervals already. ‘Sporting a -6C, 0 and +6, at 800, 900, and mid BL respectively. Under a sub 540dm hydrostat as far S as LGA. Plenty cold enough at least ~60 hrs that if any dynamics were in play at that time ( which there is not .. just sayn’) that 43 SFC T gets obliterated Caveats are aplenty…. 1, it’s the NAM. Heh, sarcasm aside, the lack of cryosphere in the area is likely why-for the +6. Hefty lapse rate. But those numbers aren’t hugely unreasonable when considering the backdrop synoptics ongoing as we transition later Sunday onward … The NAM may correct a little less cold as typically does but around 540 with a 900 to 800 -2 mean would still be sufficient So that’s the lay in early week - most likely … question is, how much so does that air mass rot further before minoring low passage mid week ? I’m noticing a tendency hold more PP draped over C-NNE, a trend that could help for those hoping

I can see why said that, tho. It’s not completely far-fetched, considering the synoptic scenario out there it’s just that in typical fashion… he leans and spins extra hard in the direction that he wants ha ha ha

Yup … woulda started a thread for D5.5 by now… just not sure climo cold rain (typical Novie heart ache) resonates well enough with this particular social media depot … lol. Yeah …so, two from-orbit aspects make that interesting. The fact that a whole scale pattern change has taken place, a colder one during a boundary month, this then being the first synoptic system two occur during either distinction. It’s more virtue for Meteorologist and more serious hobbyists, perhaps but anyone should be encouraged by the general synoptic hemisphere for only mid November, and seeing/knowing this is happening ( should it actually do so) is encouraging for winter enthusiasts. I guess I’m trying to convince myself to actually do so lol But taking a closer look at that system, it is also taking advantage of both those distinctions; it is moving through an initially marginal cold. Particularly out near Albany up through C—NNE at least cat pawing white rain fatties or start up flakes wouldn’t be a shocker. It is also close enough to marginal that subtle variation in the 850 mbar layout/cold density combined with track perturbations might end up slightly more suppressed etc. etc. I mean that’s how marginal events cash. There’s other problems like… me testing my hypothesis that our flop direction tends to be more liquid than white compared to 30 years ago being one of them for me. Heh.

Nice Miller A/‘NJ model’ hybrid low in the American flagship guidance, huh I was vocal about the Tenn V cyclogen potential after the guard change takes over the continent … Still feel that potential is enhancing. Not sure if the GFS is necessarily honing the right interval - it’s consistency is noted. But the Euro emphasized the earlier interval in the 00z. Both operating within the same synoptic motif - either could ‘win’ and they’d behave/impact similarly Caveat emptor on any of them — the 20 to 30% over amplitude bias of beyond ~ D5s. I feel firing a Tenn V flat dart off the upper MA and sending it through 980mbs …qualifies as suspect candidate.

That’s been a specter looming for weeks actually… Any kind of classical interpretive evaluation over what that construct implies is pretty constrained around winter frankly-with a question being seasonal cold versus extreme cold notwithstanding but it’s not gonna be merely normal. Not taking sides. I’m not part of the discussion and don’t know the history but I’ve been pretty clear about my position on matters, not that anybody cares lol

I don’t like the progressive look … personally speaking. It annoys me to see that downstream and hours from a NE PAC/Alaskan hgt burst … one that appears may even be cyclic not necessarily a one time deal no less … immediately the “to much velocity” tendencies evolve. The “threader” looks of the GFS are a direct manifestation of those controls. I suppose with the background Niña and/or CC and Hadley compression or which or whatever there is still lurking … prior to the -EPO, the two are sort of in completion. A battle that’s less likely to go away, whereby slower movement where/whence the total torque budget is spent in the storm itself rather than stuck in the long wave wind maxing 156 kts. 101: waves in atmosphere tend to remain open when they are velocity soaked.

I realize folks need the word snow implied if not explicit but the ice option is on the table too for either systems embedded d6-10. That said … the time range is obviously in fluid status in these guidance. But both the 0Z Euros focus on D7 and the GFS latter appear at least to me to be constructed with a lot climo in mind.

Nicole looks like dung

the kid can’t wait to say the word blizzard.

Yup... it's come back to me since earlier. We had those two back to back December years.

With that extended euro layout… weather we are enjoying it with snow on the ground or not with these sloped sun angles through that deep layer trajectory and overall synoptic ambience… ? Easily talkin pond skating and outdoor hockey by thanks giggity

It was meant for bitter sarcasm/droll humor.

Wasn’t there a winter back then … I want to say 2008, there was a huge December. We kept getting these Southwest flow/front loaded type 6 to 10 inch events lightly crusted over with Misty glaze. Cold air kept up winning out. Most of them were forecast to change the straight rain. Three or four of them and then some junket ones in between and we ended up with like 40 inches or something. Probably right up there with some of the Decembers of any lore.

Comes in 3rd place actually for my personal “where I am” static depth records. Not bad. First place was 2015. Second place was 1995. I resided in Middlesex County all three of those years … Which granted it’s a big enough space that the southern aspects tend to have less than the northern.

How did the Gfs ensembles do… Granted I don’t think they have any products that go out that far or are supposed to specialize in that kind of range? I don’t know no intent to detract from any other peoples accomplishments but this was suggested about three weeks ago when I was looking at stuff and I said so then I said we probably would get nailed in November course I have different methods admittedly. Anyway point is this isnt the first time the GFS ensembles seem to outperform the EPS … Seems to happen more so than it used to and I’m wondering if it’s just improvements in the model? Or maybe euros failing in recent versions

God I love the GFS… Lays down 6 to 10” from a flat wave on DCA on the 21st and we get jack shit … Maybe it’s warning us about the winter lol

Sorta half fake for us. I mean you can kinda tell by the deltas. Or rate of change. A week ago … we’d be 10:10 am at still just 41 down in the inverted layer. Now is 9:10 but outside of humans fiddling with time conventions the real deltas are moving up much slower, regardless. We were recovering some 25 deg by this time of morning before. One day I recall it went from dawn 30 to 62 by 10:40. Meanwhile the hydrostats are around 550dm over SNE …granted a bit cooler albeit briefly N. That’s not exactly “cold”. We’ve been 70F with shallower thickness than that. I’ve noticed that a lot in recent years actually. Kind of an interesting thickness imbalance in the loading between given 700-500mb layer compared to what typically occurs beneath. The above layer is warmer than expected. Not all the time .. no but we have a “half fake” cold under thickness that could be indicative of a warmer result

Totally fake