Typhoon Tip

It's interesting ... just looking over the morning long loop ( dawn-ish until now) at COD. Speeding that up, you really get the impression that the sensitivity today was almost entirely BL timing. I mean this thing corrected entirely by radiative forcing (sun) as it rose over and plumbed the sounding. The mid and high deck didn't even make the coast - it just sort of vanished as it came east, exposing the lower murk ... it too evaporates from all directions. I think this was a strange bust where the ridge burst over head, over night, and that inverted the sounding - I think that's referred to as "CAC" .. cold air capping. It's basically when you have a stranded lower cold air that gets sealed over warm cloud decks. You see it more commonly in mid winter.

Uh oh - your heat index values might be 90

LOL .... you might want wear single layered, white colored clothing, and consciously drink plenty of fluids

it seems like the increasingly automated reliance - I'm gaslighting a little here, admittedly ... - throughout the field ( and I've seen this in other areas of society too - ) is causing a dumb-down effect. Questionable competency ...almost carelessness may be more apropos, is suggested now and again. Of course two things I have personally noticed about my age group and myself including... One, we also get smarter as we age, just existentially forced - I guess those of the 20 to 40 year old range don't have the advantage. But two, we lose patience and think everyone's an asshole. Now... trying to parse out reality from personal bias has it's own challenges LOL. But no - there's something else to this observation that probably has truth to it. We see more silliness in operating the world. In weather-related matters, resulting in things like today... It's not "all the time" no. But more so than during hey day era of great disco analytics, the 1990s through early 2000s. There's other socio-babble reasons too. Like .. point and click forecasts - I mean hire more staff and populate the f'ers with eye ball material please. Jesus ... that's budget cuts from whatever macro eco bs that's not related to dumbing down - or maybe it is, indirectly. Like, we are multi generational, convenience addled by the Industrial bubble society button pushers now... Inside of that bubble, things get taken for granted, eventually more and more so - it's intuitively inevitable. And decisions get made that are dumb. Like, we can take the salaries out of entry level operations jobs... yeah.

what does this mean? what f is LFG - you guys and all these abbreviations jesus

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It's a clad point to make, Brain. Another way to say ... the writing was on the wall by noon yesterday, when it became really obvious the day was - aslo? - busting cold. This belay today, really got its start 24 hours ago when we get right down to it.

There's no question this 2am to noon period of time was either: not handled well by the models. not interpreted well by those looking at the models. some combination of both. Most likely, it's that 3rd option there. Either way, that's going to make heat advisory an interesting test. No doubt, eating up the dawn to 10am or noon period is going to retard heating potential, but how much or little? It's hard maybe for one to get their mind around the idea, but the adiabats are very warm over top and probably there is a poorly analyzed warm front difused and muddling matters further. But like I just said, there's a western edge to this hell moving pretty quickly east per sat review this hour, which extapolates progressively. As it passes E, it is exposing the low level under those warm adiabats to high hot sun. That will thermally couple higher and higher, and the temp will like respond quite a bit. Also - that MCS that rolled out of Missouri over the last day, seemed to fall apart and lose identiy over PA yesterday, but no - that festering ulcer that mimics at TD zygote SE of the Cape came back to life overnight; it didn't help either. FIT, ASH, BED, ORH... all with N drift to the wind this morning. Couldn't of ruined ( at least the morning aspects...) any better without it being a category 5 back door bomb. lol

So far the follow-up post on how this should evolve, moving forward after acceptance of having eaten morning bust-shit ( lol )... is working according to plan at least. There is a western edge and clearing salvation to this hell. Mid and high debris deck is passing off and exposing low levels to the high sun from west to east. Day glow sky has brightened western zones/CT over top the lingering stranded fog/strata. That's going to transition the day like Brian mentioned above... I don't know if we'll make Heat Advisory headlines, but as the sun comes through the adiabats alone will force a rapid temperature rise as the low levels thermally couple with ... I tell you what, if we can even get a BL depth to 900 mb, we'll still make 91.

Okay ...so, accepting that the morning ( at minimum) is defeated ... how can we get out of this? Satellite reveals layers. There's a mid level deck with probably upper air debris, moving off in tandem. Should peel away from western regions over the next hour, and hopefully... solar processing through the total sounding accelerates that as it goes so that we don't have to wait through noon to get it to slide off eastern areas. There is some back building over SE NY but is at a slower pace to the total motion. As that occurs, it will expose the low level strata and even ground fog - we have that locally... but I gotta think that's common at least in the valleys and dales. That then sequentially evaporates. This low gunk is actually not that uncommon in an entry into a heat scenario... but the timing of this elevate layering is retarding what would otherwise typically be a rapid recovery by now.

Wow. Fifty f'n three. That 00z GGEM shows 850 mb temperatures exploding to 20 to 22C, N-S from CNE to the SE zones, by 00z tonight. I admit ... I never performed a super discrete detailed colonoscopy on the BL mechanics for this day, back whence even I caved and started marketing its significance. I just assumed with the morphology of the 925 and 850 mb layering, and the general synopsis, we should end up with partly to mostly sunny open soaring readings straight out of the dawn. In my hopeless defense ... I did originally maintain that it's harder to 'big heat,' this part of the continent, in a pattern like this, some week ago. I'm kicking myself for caving. I dunno. Almost seems poetically justifying that it bites in the ass. LOL I guess... I decided to reverse that tempo and give a nod to the notion that sometimes anomalies happen too. You and I also were just having discussed how New England hasn't yet really experienced the synergistic heat wave yet. This would not have been it, no. But, the general idea of heat tending to over perform ... I started having trouble holding that back conceptually there. It didn't help that all models then painted 90s; that really too elegantly completed the deception. We'll see where it goes.

We may make up for it in the afternoon .. but grading the day in quarters ( say..), what a bust this morning. My my my. On a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being the most egregious ... this is really too terrible to even rank on that scale. 60/60, wet with drizzle. Big heat needs launch pads. But falling short of that necessity, so does 90 really. 90s are going to be a neat trick, without something rather unusual. The biggest morning to afternoon turn around I have ever personally observed was a June day in 1987. 64/62 with morning dense overcast and occasional rain/thunder, burst into a warm sector around 1pm and both the T and TD soared to 87/72. E-central Massachusetts. Satellite imagery reveals a region with jammed in multi-layer cloud density clear to the Hudson, and looping suggests back-building along that western edge. We also have a leaf-wobbling NE drift here just to make fun of us? I mean I'll be the first to admit to my own failing in being conned by morning's with bad first reveals, in the past, and having to reverse my perspective at 11 or 12... I don't doubt there will be improvement. It may even get uncomfortably warm and humid. 86/68 is relative win in that regard. But 90s? Good luck

The 850s won't mean much if the wind is S. ...blah blah indirect southerly marine contamination etc. The last two days had the wind more westerly, but this stupid v-max that's falling apart ( actually...) was trying - in the NAM anyway - to monkey wrench the wind into a S direction, basically eliminating Saturday from even 90 from eastern CT to eastern Mass... The 18z NAM is warmed substantially. It's probably not as much factorable. If you are right about the 850s, and wind does become WSW established during the day... less clouds, it will be interesting if the mixing depth gets that high. mm, 18C adiabat from that sigma supports 91 or so... but... that doesn't account for the 100 meter to surface super adiabat/slope toward the right. It's more likely that 94 as the ping high. If the wind is west and less clouds, and the 850s are warmer ...I think the Euro is closer to 20? no - anyway, it will be interesting if the 850 is the adiabat; that probably puts 96 .. 97 into the parking lots and urban gang decision making -lol

Exceptional heatwave signaled ... one that may significantly outclass tomorrow and Sunday - should the signal work. Broadly scope to finite considerations: 1 La Nina spring --> summer relays, are notorious heat producers over the eastern continental middle latitudes. 2 Erstwhile propensity for rebound eastern N/A ridging ( below the 60th parallel) and the Pacific relay into western N/A nearing -1 SD, combined, are a correlative fit. 3 Operational guidance and ensemble means (among the three majors) have been hinting at the emergence of a more important ridge anomaly ballooning over the #1 and #2 inference ... That converging teleconnector nods to the conceptual value of those model runs that are doing that. I wouldn't suggest the 18z GFS is right - obviously for it's being Day 9 through 13. But I suggest looking for model solutions like this going forward, spanning that period of time. This is for 'proof of concept' I may start a thread over the next days at some point if it gets more confidence.

E wind made it here... 78 to 67 in 20 minutes. Air carries just a soupcon of oceany scent to it, too, in Ayer, some 35 mi from the water by wind. Man, talk about a geography hell bent of ruining a warm summery vibe. It was about to transition into one of those utopia evenings, with comfortably tepid air and distance Lilac aromas. good energy - Now,... low tide and soul suppressing cold - This is gonna have to be one hell of an impressive warm flip - and it's not even clear that there's a real warm front in place. The boundary WPC is analyzing, doesn't seem to differentiate.. The real warm air is W of the Apps still. So, now that Labrador is pissing on the evening festivities... it'll probably have us all the way down to 58 - yet it's supposed to be 94 tomorrow. It'll be interesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/us/blackouts-summer-heat-extreme-weather/index.html

Hey Brian ... can I call you ?

I mean it's like an homage to hour special little meteorology here that WPC doesn't apparently know how to account for/ or is even aware. I mentioned this morning ... but that loop clearly smacked of a shallow/diffused BD having crept into eastern sections prior to dawn. FIT and ORH have been variable/averaging S/SW ....while BOS - BVY axis has been ENE all morning up under that latex paint. It's breaking up now. Also, the SW motion from early wrt to the masses off the shore has also ceased and appears to be moving back N. Looks like it's washing out. Logan still E at 9mph though.

Probably lesser known ( ... even lesser do many care - lol ) but there is a western Europe/Eastern N/A mid-latitude teleconnector that is positively correlated. When they are warm, we tend to be warm, and when they are cool, we tend to be cool. That, like all telecon's, probably has a better correlative significance in winter than summer. However, as I've op-ed'ed a few times over recent years, ... we have seen seasonal lag effects into spring, particularly with regards to the ambient total wind energy at mid latitudes, and that having those surplus mechanics tends to organize R-wave structures that last longer than is typical for AMJ ...etc, etc. That suggests for me that telecon's may be more useful - they work because of the geometry of R-wave distributions being planetary-footed, so if you have them, logic follows... etc. Long of the short, I think this, "Several southern French towns sizzled in record high temperatures for May on Wednesday, while the month as whole is on track to be the hottest since records began, the national weather service said. " as found (c/o) here, https://phys.org/news/2022-05-french-towns.html ...bears some pattern correlative weight up and down the eastern seaboard. Keeping in mind, these things don't necessarily line up exactly in space and time, either. That's why the correlation coefficiencies never = 1. But, sufficed it is to say... (barring the NAM's getting cute with E CT/ RI and E Mass removal) ...the weekend's +2 SD heat from DCA to PWM, and what could be episotic significant heat returns through the first week of June ( based upon the 'tenor' and trend of the operational runs, over a canvas of the ens mean suggestions), fits the lesser known model. As an aside, these scenarios are tough... We are likely to put up a warmer than normal month, any given month, do to the on-going CC ... if only by decimals, but warm nonetheless. Other months may be substantially more. These sort of special warm patterns may get too far embedded in those decimals and harder to parse apart. Having a random month be modestly cooler than normal, still not impossible, actually obfuscates matters even more.

Heat's very fragile.. It's almost impossible to hold a big heat signal for days leading - of all headline-able events in weather, it's probably the lowest deterministically until perhaps 36 hours preceding. Also, morning hi res vis loop suggests some sort of weak or even diffused BD crept into eastern/NE regions prior to dawn. The motion out over the waters is clearly <--SW ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Meanwhile, ORH's sfc wind is WSW/SW aver direction, while Logan up to BVY are ENE... It's not likely to dictate the day, just that it was cool look - heh, literally.

NAM is using that to cancel the heat for eastern CT/RI/E Mass ... interesting. It kinks around the pressure pattern and instills a light SE flow that doesn't turn around. Sunday becomes the warmer day, but then the main front's sped up in the various guidance and we're probably getting more clouds that day - if that's true. So, the big heat/record aspect might have just sailed. Not sure it's right, but not impossible I guess.

yeah...and seems like the heat wants to arrive on the aft heel of that, too.

that thing in southern Missouri looks suspiciously like a landphoon

Looking over/analyzing the NAM's sounding... I think it is too shallow with the BL depth, given this synopsis through the weekend. MET machine guidance was only 92 at KFIT/KASH/KBED which appears to low-ball a +21.5 overriding 850 mb metric - particularly when the wind is 240 deg at 10 to 15 kts in mid BL flow. That wind trajectory offers 0 marine/Serly contamination. Meanwhile, the the RH% at/below 500 mb all the way down are < 50%, under a climbing late May sun. It's definitely low balling the temps. Why? Well ...off the bat, it appears it is limiting the mixing depth/BL heights to just 900 mb level. One thing I have noticed about the NAM is that it T1 ( 20 mb above station sigma) is typically cold biased beyond 48 hours. As that intervals in question get nearer over consecutive runs, it adds whole degrees C to that T1 value - particularly outside of deep CAA times of year. This whole situation with a sudden jolt into a + standard deviation heat event, then added to that tendency, I think is exaggerating that effect. 92 is too cool on Saturday ( MET)... 88 at Logan is ungood forecasting -

'Wiz doing it the old fashioned way with the NAM grid over here... BOS/LGA 36000936454 03704 171915 66151712 36000995933 01993 151616 71142114 42000987647 -3494 161921 69131913 42002995640 05294 141709 74162417 48001975155 -1696 162214 73162317 48000984153 02695 172608 73172417 54000533228 00893 152409 76292419 54000583233 -1094 172208 75272718 60000522629 -0592 162310 76302319 60000542927 -0793 172211 75282418 I don't know if you know how to interpret these (FOUS) grid values, but as per my own pre reqs for Met back in the day, we used them regularly. Back then it was the NGM and the ETA, respectively. But now it's just the NAM... Anyway the two lines I bold show that the warm air burst, overtop synoptically, prior to the llvs catching up. That's by definition WAA... But here we see minor QPF of .01 and .02 respectively - which isn't insignificant when knowing what is going on synoptically to induce these numbers. The +23 and +24 C, between 2 am and 8 am Saturday morning, while it is +16 C in the low levels...etc.. You can also see the wind at both BOS and LGA go from S to WSW, and the sounding becomes adiabatic to surface ( or closer to it) under that warm layering upon the next interval? That's a warm fropa there. Anyway, I would not be surprised if there's frequent lightning predawn elevated stuff... and then look at the RH later in the day!! Bone dry after that morning advection clears, full sun and soars to 30C in the T1 at Logan. That's 34 or 35 C in the 2-meter (most likely)