Typhoon Tip

Just musing: Something strange is going on with the numbers, something I've noticed for a while actually. It feels chilly when above normal now - Some of that, I suspect is because as noted over the recent 10 ... 20 years of global climate monitoring, and is showing likewise in local numbers, much of the above normal results have been because of the nighttime contribution, which have been the warmer of the night vs days. If it's 50 for a low, and the average low is 44 ( say..), but the next day is 70 when the average high is 69, that's almost unknowable to the average civilian just how warm it has been. But when it is perceived chillier, wind of any amount will tend to gnaw at one's nerves. Irony is that wind at 50 or 44 at night is going to suck either way. It doesn't have to even be windier than normal. Moving cold air is unpleasant.

two schools ... one, tonight could be a tick or two colder even than that. The gradient is already down as of this morning, but will be flattened to nil tonight. Star lit busted open sky will radiate away and decouple a nasty surface layer of popsicle headache ... last month. two, it's late in the month of Anus now with intense sun. There will be a ton to radiate. The earth and all physicality exposed to the sun today will absorb to maximum potential. The chilly air will eat some of that away, but it will be minor compared to the total flux. The Earth surface is green(ing), adding some minor evaporation and together ... this is like a heat battery. Unlike a month ago, that 'battery' has that large and growing larger by day capacity. We'll still radiate a prized hog's ass amount tonight but, we'll also thus have a lot to bleed off. It'll be an interesting ...albeit a truly 'life fulfilling' tedious weinershnitzel experiment to see if tonight: the skies stay clear in the same essential air mass over the same essential earth terrain most importantly, the wind is in fact more calm; not just surface but up thru the boundary layer ... how the low temperatures respond. I mean what else are you gonna do? get laid - ... This is way more compelling.

Hmm. personally I think a C has to be on the average with modest tolerance in either direction. … I’m assuming people are grading snow as the primary subjective weighting. Just trying to have some kind of consistently cogent criteria. Fir every partial grade, up or down, requires 10% +- So 10% below normal = C- … 10% above = C+ … and on and so on. I don’t do the seasonal grade thing but if I did, I’d try to follow something like that. Such that … what is that, 70% above normal is equivalent to an A+. So in order to pass the winter cannot be less than -40 (C-, D+, D, D-) % Thing is … even tho that would be arithmetically fair … people get pissed the closer to average things are shaking out and would court yard judge it worse. So much below C- is likely why so many Fs.

I’m wondering if it’s gonna be a cool asshole boring summer … Conventional wisdom coming of La Niña (I thought ?) winter/spring typically went on to warm summers. I may not be right about that. But suppose I am … when I think back to other hot summers it seemed like they didn’t come out of the gates this way. They were done stuffing -2sd cold turds down our throats by mid March. 1976 … 2012 these were preceded by weak to moderate Niña I have a personal competing concept, tho. I’m not sure these ENSOs are the same in how they interact/force circulation modes like they used to before 10 … especially 20 years ago. They’ve been uncoupling more frequently than my love life, leaving forecasts rather stranded at times. Niña may not mean much. I mean if the hemisphere flips script and gets hot I’m sure Niña will get merit award but who knows.

Congrats on your -15 high temp.

I’m wondering how NASA’s April climate report shakes out the anomaly distributions (globally). I’m curious if like the entire planet’s cooling offset budget was over us. Haha. I mean despite our feeble positive anomalies (are they even gonna survive the next 48 hrs?) … we could be cooler relative to everywhere else …

How about, 55 on Anus 28 is dogshit tho.

It’s like spring loaded … and making 55 out of this gelid piece o shit air mass ‘might’ speak to the potential on Sunday … We really haven’t yet taken advantage of the returning sun even once. Every day there’s been sun it’s been an offsetting battle in CAA or cellar starting grind. That’s an interesting under the radar aspect. Not once. Yet we’re above normal by insult decimals. Lol. Who knows how long we have to wait for the first free height boundary layer to work in - Sunday won’t be it but should recover to 70. At this rate that’ll seem hot

Managed 54 here. Sun won’t be denied … sorta

Didn't mean to undermine the significance of the '87 event. Like I said ... the snow aspect is a separate matter - so consider the post a separate facet, too. This air mass would dump a powder if it it could.

To me it means less that there is no snow in the air or underfoot - that's a separate aspect to just whether or not the air mass in situ would support - which this does with latitude to give even. I mean as PF was just showing ... -10 to -14 C 850s ? It's just as bad(good) depending on one's covet. I mean this may be even colder air mass - not sure... Just sayn', that coulda been a marginal atmosphere when that potent mid level impulse settled through the trough.

There's also room for perspective - Teeeechnically this is an anomalous air mass. So... it's not like we should be couching this and/or snow into any sense of "normalcy" for April 28. Thing is, 2000+ elevations ... will have a climo that is cut out from the valley floors but you know that...blah blah notwithstanding. In fact, it's 44 in what has evolved into a partly to mostly sunny splashed mid day down here, where it is climate to be 65... Even if we make 50, talking -15 during the existential period of the diurnal cycle. Maybe not shocking, but definitely unjust - haha. It may snow at those elevations up your way into May, but it can do so up that way without it being in the mid 40s east of the Berk's down here, just the same. Ha, ...know what it is? It's like we shouldn't be shocked that it is shockingly bad - lol

Annyway ... luckily Sunday's synoptic outlook has been consistent in recent guidance. MEX MOS is over 65 at KFIT/KASH/KBED, ... Synoptics would support at least 7 more than that - maybe this 12z will have shed the climate weighting. I dunno, but the 2-meter Euro clearly is just the adiabatic/BL mixing temp - it's a retarded product because it doesn't even attempt the slope temp at the bottom of the sounding that goes sharply right for several degrees. So that 66 could easily be 70 .. 72 with zip cloud RH, and +11 925 mb

Guys... no one is shocked. People just don't like it. People will tend to complain when they eat shit. I think maybe you folks are shocked that people complain about the taste of shit? That's interesting - haha

Dude ... admit that this day sucks for you too - k' ? jesus. You're such a gas-lighter in your posts and that's why you have a lot of detractors in here. I know 'cuz I do the same thing LOL

alright .. i must of missed something lol. Did some idiot make the impertinent jest that this was somehow anything other than an asshole piece of shit typical April ? hahaha

And I say this despite the splashes of thus made irrelevant sun of the day ... this is a rock-bottom arrival, like only New England spring is capable of abusing. It was like the goal of the pattern all alone to get to this nadir. 40s and wind a week before entry into perennial solar maximum is some kind of bottom dweller day that is almost mocking the former aspect. The models were on to it. They had been marketing a shit look for a long time... really going back over two weeks. But it seemed every third or forth day, would bounce back - though with steady losses. 66 ... next one 63, 59 .. 56. Gradually over time ... here we are.

Luckily it's still on the table

God we f’n hope so

Is it me or at a glance does Eric Fisher's Twitter avatar look like a the owner of some porn production company ?

GFS agrees over the weekend ... okay - Almost identical metrical set up heading into Sunday. FIgure for 65-70 F over-achievement.

yeah...Sunday almost utopia. Euro's been consistent with that look over the weekend. Not sure of the GFS - I tend to ignore it outside of 4 days because of its insistence to shed seasonal change and get back to January that it carries on with even in hot years. jesus - Pretty sure whatever machine guidance has will bust cool if Sunday synopsis works out tho. All main metrics on board. Full sun ( low RH all typical ceiling heights), deep layer cold-abandoned NW flow is D-slope. The 850s go from negative to positive during the mid day on the Euro - likely because the sun zapped super adiabats are pulverizing the cold. May be a pretty impressive diurnal? The Euro 2-meter is the adiabatic temp but it doesn't calculate the 100 meter slope temp, which accounting for that would foist the high toward the upper 60s under an intense sun sky. That's the way to make 67 feel a whole lot warmer than it really is.

All seasonal forecast based upon historic climatological inference are likely to be less correct, then the same practice might yield ...30 or so years ago. Cannot base current seasonality on climate past; to attempt to do so mean assuming climate = delta(climate)

It seemed pretty likely that would happen before the models got around to 'inching' it east enough to spare the region the worst. "I realize I spent time opining ( ..or 'whining' either way heh ) about the -NAO retrograding earlier. If the retrograde doesn't happen as quickly as as the previous runs ...that cut-off rhea wheel might end up farther out to sea like the predecessor just did. .." It seems there's been a real sensitivity with the NAO, right vs wrong over the last several years. It's like the worst performing domain of all telecon's. Anyway, there are/were other reasons for that presumption, not just the NAO. The faster than normal hemisphere is still going on. It's like even though we are technically "more" blocky than the winter... the flow around them is still limiting their influence ... correcting blocks along/eroding them quicker. I wouldn't trust the big eastern Canadian cold overwhelming the sun idea of the Euro's extended either.

Through about D7 ... as is typically the case with that cluster, the op and ens means are nondispersive. Heh, meaning they don't look a whole helluva lot different - the op is just more amplified at local scales. Differences get more notable by D8, though. The euro has a stem wound mid level "invention" approaching the Lakes which you can tell it its model enhanced bs. That same feature acquired all that momentum from no source when the leading sequenced D5 into 6 --> ...Something I've noticed about the Euro for many years actually - the 'auto bomb' effect. Any days beyond D6 are amplitude suspect with ridges and troughs. There may be a whirl there but not that eye- popping. Anyway, the eps mean barely acknowledges that even exist so the op and mean diverge hugely on that, ...which unfortunately f's up the rest of the run.