Typhoon Tip

do you remember at Funky Murphy's, we were talking about the "deamplification" error of the models? How there seems to be an everyday requirement of whatever eye-candy there is in the extended, to salt the sucker at least some amount. I suspect that is related to the models having to "speed up" the flow, moving all events from circa D12s to D8s ... to D4s and so on. Along the way, speeding up processes is but very subtle along 6 hourly intervals in the models, but is too little perhaps to notice. But aggregated over time, requires some 20% ( for the sake of discussion) of mechanical organization lost after a week of doing that.. It's like an exchange, where the models have to take energy from the small scales, to then supply the large scale with the faster basal flow velocities. Sounds like human-based economics interestingly enough... haha

You know ... not that my opinion needs to matter more than the next guy's. In striving to be 'reasonable', objectivity should be one's governing goal. If they are ... others will be more likely to consider ... etc... Aaaand then we let MAGA choose what's objective. LOL no Seriously, I maintain that CC is true. I also maintain that the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest. I will say ... there is a growing compendium of published papers that describe changes in the global circulation; faster jets is one of them. I've posted links in American WX here and there, but no replies or forwarding conversation, lend much of any confidence that anyone would recall my having done so... heh. There's a lot of advancing mathematics that has demonstrated better predictive skill, but there's still quite obviously ( and I know you may not like this word but bear with the semantics ) "alarming" gaps. Case in point, 2023: not a single human being ( that I am aware...), nor any technology therefrom, predicted that en entire fucking planet ( a whole planet ) would up and raise a degree C, ocean to air, everywhere, simultaneously. It was strangeness at a tedious scale that I haven't heard anyone, not even the University apparatus, mention. There's plenty of, 'still a mystery as to how,' type studies, but none that I've seen the specifically addresses the question: why would the 40N and above spanning Atlantic Basin SSTs, rise at the same rate and amount as the Indian Ocean, while both rose at a similar amount and speed as the ENSO band ( 4, 3.4, 3, 1+2)... as did the south Pacific...? It's like some kind of conductor zapped the whole world. These fields, moving in unison, is the alarming aspect. And the atmosphere went right along with it... That occurrence proves that "the science of CC et al is not entirely certain as to how it will manifest" That uncertainty, moreover, allows for a larger envelope of plausible emergence yet to be presented given time. Last winter was - I think - an under-the-radar extraordinary event. It just didn't hurt anything. I've been alive for many decades now ...I've never seen 4" lousy inches of snow survive 3.5 months of time in any winter, including the big dawgs of lore. The persistent temperature suppression, albeit not extraordinarily cold, that went along with that ... is something I've never heard of. I suspect CC is always manifesting in these idiosyncratic ways that are too nuanced to most people's everyday, including the nerds, to really consider. We are an observation enslaved interpreter species of the universe and nature - we water cooler and shelve all speculation and predictions, until they are squeezing our balls.

Mmm... might help your case if you wrote a post that connects the dots with empirical data supporting this ( bold ). I mean, I lean in your favor on that in principle. Particularly the "...PDO phase have not been working out..." part. I would extend this to all quadrature, however. Ex, the ENSOs have increased intra-mode frequencies whence the larger hemispheric circulation construct types sort of strain correlation. Some times not appearing to really even be coupled. This is tendencies, mind you - we're not attempting to abase thermodynamic theory between ocean-air-land with this. This is conjecture based on observation. But, there's a way to disrupt correlations without challenging the school. I began commenting with Ray years ago that, in general, how field observation results have begun to shake confidence in using teleconnectors in on-going correlation -based corrections. Operational weather forecasting's been stressed. A personal speculation: during the recent decades, increasing basal flow velocities have been observed (empirically). This may be effecting patterns into changing faster. There's a gestation limitation in time where if the mass field modulation takes place too quickly ... this doesn't give events within it time enough to manifest; " exceeding the time-dependency on event specifics". Example... a crashing -NAO, doesn't last long enough for the sloped pattern through the lakes to manifest, because the L/W perturbs too quickly and the whole thing deconstructs itself. This may happen at all scales and dimensions. The PDO probably needs more time to be a huge driver; as a cumulative exertion, the momentum needs time to gather enough to correlate. But with the hurried transition rate and higher resonance, the system's moved on prior to seeing the better correlation. This is all very intuitive to me personally.. And these ideas do seem to 'fit' your conjecture. That said, ... unless we have data to support - which I don't personally have admittedly - this is just based on our existential impression of the world. It's anecdotal in a sense. It may be entirely right. It may be entirely wrong. Neither of those states is very typical though in speculative "art" in this shit. Somewhere in the middle is probably where the truth resides, but data tells us on which side of the 50/50 line.

65 as of 9:15 .. up from 41, but the 41 was captured at 3:30 or so after a couple hours of decoupling. Obs nearby FIT and locally suggests we coupled back up and temperatures began rising roughly around that time going forward. The rate of rise and the surrounding other observations et al suggest in total we'll be above 70 anyway. MET's been 77-ish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc, which would put today in contention if not succeeding in the greatest diurnal range day of the year. I always like to track that admittedly tedious nerdiness

already commented about it in the May thread

Solid model agreement over the extended on this 12z run ... Hey, ... maybe we can get one of those entertaining fights between Kevin and Kdxken going !

Impressive extremes this month... I was just skulking around the climate pages over at NWS Boston, and marveling over that week of polar opposites. HFD put up a 38 for a high temperature on the 12th, and ~ 2" of snow recorded that day ... 7 days later on the 19th it was 89 F with a total 24 T departure of +20! Check out Worcester 10 49 27 38 -6 27 0 0.02 T M 7.5 16 190 M M 6 1 25 190 11 41 31 36 -8 29 0 0.25 1.0 M 6.1 15 40 M M 10 12 24 40 12 33 31 32 -13 33 0 0.72 6.4 M 13.9 20 40 M M 10 12 34 60 ... 6.4" of snow; high T of 33 13 46 33 40 -5 25 0 T 0.0 M 11.5 23 330 M M 9 12 35 340 14 64 39 52 6 13 0 0.00 0.0 M 11.5 18 240 M M 0 26 350 15 64 42 53 7 12 0 0.09 0.0 M 12.9 38 290 M M 4 1 54 300 16 45 35 40 -6 25 0 0.00 0.0 M 17.8 29 300 M M 8 47 280 17 54 35 45 -2 20 0 0.00 0.0 M 15.0 24 280 M M 0 35 280 18 64 35 50 3 15 0 0.00 0.0 M 13.8 24 240 M M 2 34 200 19 81 54 68 20 0 3 0.09 0.0 M 15.7 33 260 M M 3 50 270 High T of 81 20 64 42 53 5 12 0 0.00 0.0 M 15.3 32 310 M M 1 45 300 21 59 38 49 1 16 0 T 0.0 M 9.0 17 200 M M 5 26 190

Man... see the synoptic metrics for tomorrow ( Monday ) ? Aprils suck ... so do Mays some years... but one thing about spring in this region that cannot be denied is that it sometimes features some incredible short duration sensible weather turnarounds. Tomorrow will be sensational at about 3pm compared to today at that same time, per evaluating the main indicators - all guidance sources. It's like getting blood work back from a physical with an A1C of 4.8, total lipid spectrum of 150 over good cholesterol =70, and a flawless liver/kidney function. I had that in 2020 .. but since attempted some dietary experimentation to go with weight lifting and it fucked my numbers up a bit ... I've since got the A1C way down; we'll see how the cholesterol looks in August ... seein' as it's so relevant lol Looks like Metrowest of Boston out along the Pike backyards, up through southern NH are going to be about 75, with almost unadulterated sun and 3 to 5kt angel zephyrs tomorrow afternoon.

Ha ha... c'mon, man - can we give it just a day? We just got 1.25" yesterday and everything is verdantly lit up with a soaked passion for life out there. First thing I see coming here? STEIN stein stein stein

I dunno ... we got .81" here and another .2 - .3 looks like coming in per radar. seems the 1 to 1.25 has a chance yet at verifying at least here.

Imho, synoptically this is unusual behavior south of a warm boundary ... Here's a wild eye-roller idea, this is "attribution noise" I keep seeing these unusual scenarios all over the world, that are [perhaps] under the awareness radar, yet plausibly connected to CC. Likely because their impacts are too negligible. But this is significantly unusual seeing this amount ceiling and realized QPF(ing) taking place in a supposed quasi-barotropic sounding. Needing scientific, at least "sounding" reasoning? well... higher heat = higher evaporative potential = greater WV ... so much so that equilibrium starts condensing out from subtler perturbations.

This is the grungiest warm sector I believe I've ever seen in actual observations.. 60/59, south of the warm boundary ? yeeeah I thought those GFS solutions had to be too pessimistic but here we are. I guess it's not a complaint - we just had 4 days back to back of 70 to 80 with lower DPs. The weekend timing thing ...? mm I think read somewhere that there's been a statistical research demonstrating that weekend are more fucked that weekdays over the perennial averages. Which is interesting because there are only 2 weekend days vs 5, so even if the spread is slightly in favor in the numbers .. .that means the weekend shit shows are overcoming significantly stacked odds to ensure people are persecuted. haha

Blend that last 7 winters + some factor of warmer done

fits the telecons though ... just sayn' I mentioned this yesterday to no acknowledgement - gee ... wonder why? heh. The 00z spread actually looked a bit less so in the tele's but these operational runs at 12z didn't apparently get that memo. The tele's may also slip back into dogshit mode ... I don't know. This time of year, even the tele's aren't free from stochastic signals. Anyway, we're on D4 of way way over-achieving April days here, and after a very brief cool down on Sunday, it could be 80+ again next week. Beyond that, if we get 3 to 5 days of rhea it's probably normal. we'll see

Oh it's not even close... This has not been a typical climo April. In fact, if I were being as objectively fair as I can, I'd say that Aprils in general have had some decent stretches in recent years. Bad stretches too... but, it seems the frequency and length of these better periods have been incongruent compared to the much longer termed climo signal from last century. Maybe, maybe not a part of the attribution stuff, but I also submit that May's have almost become proportionately worse. No prediction there - we were talking about the shoulder seasons smearing ... likely a part of that. Currently 74. No cloud. Zip wind. Low DPs.

out here about 8 mi west of 495 I've noticed in the past that our breeze invasions are almost always from the ENE ... but sometimes we'll get doubles. The 2nd one comes in from the SE... you can actually make them out on high def rad reflectivity sometimes. the SE one originates from your area

Mid level cloud deck ( should lose out to more sun going forward...) sorta interfering with warming a little ... but not huge. It's 55 along Rt "shadowed" but yeah, it's diurnal time.

right... there's overlap in phenomenon. a huge problem with human beings is that they don't even just like to, they seem to have an actual unstoppable instinctive need to place boundaries on everything - when in reality... reality itself emerges out of multiple processes occurring simultaneously, while each individual influential force is in itself, a non-static contributions. Shoulder seasons are getting smeared by the type of phenomenon in this link below .... note, this source is paraphrasing an actual scientific paper; this is not just social media John-ism, https://phys.org/news/2025-04-hot-cold-sudden-flips-temperature.html And that is all taking place, while as you say, the longer term trend is "making America great again" Try explaining 'overlapping contributory forcing' to the average utility dumbed-down dipshit pap on tap American civilian - of which ...we've managed to put a gaggle in charge of the country - and fucking no shit no one believes in climate change. Or takes it seriously enough. Doesn't matter... Fermi Paradox explanation's obviously and quite evidentiary going to claim an extinction level event long before winters have completely been removed from the map, anyway. Enjoy sniffing Trumps ball sack everyone - you're a fucking gem in the history of the world

I have no problem with it still being winter until the bs stops in May. It's not even arguable anyway. The empirical data has snowed more times in May since the hockey-stick era of CC began some 20 years ago, than Mays prior to that going back 100 whatever years - it's really overall a testament to how the shoulder seasons are getting smeared. Same has been true in Octobers since -.

+PNA seems to be more of a bump up toward neutral positive beyond the 30th, as opposed to the stronger positive mode change in the previous computation cycles. Of course, that's when the operational GFS' extended parks an anus over PA ...

At least it's not winter any longer. Sort of a personal rule, it is still winter until radiational cooling nights stop short of falling to or beneath 32. It doesn't matter how warm it is or may have gotten up to the point in time the observer thinks winter is behind them, if 2 nights down the road manage to radiate to 32 or lower, it's still winter. We just did 2 nights in a row whence radiational cooling dictated the temperature behavior, and neither was much below 40 where I am, and appeared to stay above freezing in the bulk across the region.

funny ... posted that exact same sentiment re the first little while of May over in that April thread

Sounds like you guys are heavily leaning on the GFS for Saturday? There's not much mention going back and forth that includes the other guidance. The differences between them are not that significant, granted, but the 00z GFS was the wetter implied run. It and previous runs had persistent tendency for low-on-the-front burst while the whole mechanical wave space translates over the area... The Euro and GGEM both have less of that. Then, the 06z GFS appears to align more like the Eu/GGEM. So the blend is valid in my mind and as of now ... the error correcting doesn't favor the GFS' prior runs. The Euro, by the way, has a severe potential on Saturday upon a discrete look. There's temperature recovery potential after dawn WAA showers are leaving, and partial clearing is well timed with heating. Elevated DP slotted air/warm sector. Theta-e ridge with narrow SB CAPE transport up the CT R Valley to as high as S VT... and spreads E by late morning. I'd would watch that. That setting looks rather explosive mid day CB scenario and the Euro model's QPF imagination is painting descrete thunderstorms firing off by 18z over far E NY. Sunday looks breezy under self-destruction CAA clouds. Sorta blagh, chilly, and annoying. Short lived as Monday looks like a top-5 day in all guidance. Particularly after 11 a.m. All guidance depict deep layer light W flow transporting a rapidly warming 900 to 850 mb layer. At this time of year and sun strength, that's easily tapped. Dry air at all ceiling levels. +4 850s or so by day's end... I tell you though, that looks ripe for summer sun intensity mutilating the thermal profiles/super adiabatic extension. Probably over -achieving to 72 and going above machine numbers. Tuesday and Wednesday are mid summer. Probably approaching or even exceeding 80 on Tuesday, and in the 80s Wednesday ...another convection chance that afternoon. GGEM's not useful beyond D5 ...it's wantonly cold profiles everywhere and every dimension stress believability. The Euro and GFS match the telecons well enough and blend out to +14+ on Tuesday already by 18z, and 16+ on Wednesday. With deep layer WSW/SW flow and lower ceiling RH still being the case ... whatever machine numbers have for those days, the correction vector is higher. Then, the first week of May ... hmm... significant mode change in the ens -based PNA from all systems.. Rising from negative to positive, with retreated N/Stream, sets the E.C. open to a cut-off spring shit show. It's just far enough off that this could meta to some other/lesser implication, but that's what the deeper range mass fields are suggesting at this time.

First week of May might remind -

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