Typhoon Tip

Probably not ... wall of impenetrable didn't get warm enough in time clearly stuffing CAPE ... Cu field's not advancing out of NY too well

surged to 77

Well thankfully ...this is what I said: "We may actually scour out prior to the real warm front moving through over the course of the next several hours ... but, if that happens the high intense sun will then process the shit out of the prefrontal inversion and we may see a "frontal leap" up to a bicycle ride S of Brian where it stalls until next spring ..." Which is exactly what happened, bold. Brian might be hosed though hopefully The last hour we went from 62 to 74 here and probably we still have a shot at the upper 70s given to heating at this time of year lasting until 4 oclock,

we'll be hosed here until the last physical second the cold is allowed to hold out. I've noticed that in these fudge-packed labored warm lube jobs that that N. Middlesex and western Essex counties up here will slab cold even when PSM in NH is S at 14 F temperature jumps.

Temp ? I've been monitoring this site all morning ( provided by the Grand Rapids MI NWS ) and you can see/get a feel for where the warm frontal erosion axis is... Looks at glance like it's hung around NYC but judging by sat/vis loop ... you wonder if we'll get a processing leap when/if the skies improve.

Your sky's gotta be glowing at least now looking at high res vis loop. We may actually scour out prior to the real warm front moving through over the course of the next several hours ... but, if that happens the high intense sun will then process the shit out of the prefrontal inversion and we may see a "frontal leap" up to a bicycle ride S of Brian where it stalls until next spring

I suspect all weather dweebs had their chosen vantage points and would return to them, like a bear remembers a meal, when ever conditions qualified as an opportunity to eat in the specter of the clouds. Mine was the Coldwell Bankers/Insurance parking lot. It wasn't terribly huge, but Acton is one of those used to be forest townships typically found E of the Worcester Hills and west of I95; scoured out over 150 years of white man cometh farming and cow paths, turned eventually into single story shopping plazas separated by two-lane roads. There's still modestly wooded neighborhoods like all townships of this ilk, but that's not too ideal for dweebing. There were fields over by Acton/Boxborough Regional High School... Baseball and football complexes. Tennis courts etc. That town gentrified straight from 1960 provincial town Americana conservatism, right to self-righteous yuppification through the 1980s and '90s... replete with ultra competitive socially abusing rich shit assholes. Imagine a "Beverly's 90210" clone, only uncensored reality. The town actually built a parking lot for the high school students ( high school students!). On any given day ...one might see a BMW SUVs parked out among the other vehicles that no mere Junior in high school has any business sniffin' the interior of... Little oligarch larvae. I dunno. But it's a helluva lot different than when I was there hiding, lest risk ridicule for standing in fields watching TCU's poke up over the tree-lines ... waiting passionately to hear distant thunder murmurs. In other words ... kind of off-limits. I used stand there, arms crossed, in the old Coldwell parking lot, sometimes for up to an hour... I came to be known by the employees, too. Like, omg? What a dork... You ever think back to a time or place or event whence you were a part, and just seethe in private embarrassment? But one time someone emerged from the front of the building and as they passed by, she said, "We see you out here; what are looking for?" I had to laugh... I explained that I was a Meteorology major, the college I was attending ... prefacing the response regarding observing the thunder clouds. That actually made me feel a lot less self-conscious about being a creepy figure just loitering around outside their office windows... haha. She actually took interest and sidled up next to me and started looking at the features I was pointing out to her. Quite validating actually. I wasn't just a chapter out of a J.D. Salinger novel. I don't do that for every day crispy TCU's anymore. You get older and the art of it is reused. But, I do upon occasion stop and gawk if there's suspicion for rotation or just exceptional circumstances in general.

you can't anyway. You're too obstructed from ground truth in every direction. If not an elevation blocking view it's forest or trees in general ...and if not trees, it's church steeples. Maybe you could photo a steeple, digitally turn it upside down, doctor it up a tad and call it a day - hahaha. hell, they call 'em the 'finger of god' anyway.

these laboring warm frontal days are a paint drying slog. It's cutting across middle NJ but looking at hourly obs it appears to be moving north and will be up here mid afternoon, unless there's some sudden broader scaled mix out/leap in position which sometimes happens in these tuck regions E of the els.. I could see it being 62/57 murk at 2pm and agonizing ...then at 3:45 pm it's suddenly 77/65 as far N as ASH - Brian should be dammed and damned until tomorrow. If we can peel away more of the mid and high level gunk, then the sun may help to speed this up too. We're less than a week before the doorway into the solar max time of year. Long journey that seemed like a nightmare hallway stretching out of reach this time. I think I'm getting older.

hoping for some good CB scapes but that looks like it may deteriorate into a grunge warm sector sky type... which is all distant rumbles. At least it's warm. Saturday's sort of transformed into a deep warm sector day as the week went on.

chilly but no frost. 40 Massive solar loading yesterday so the battery was fully charged going into the night. Plus, with green up accelerating we're adding WV into the diurnal thermal state/cycle. These two factors probably helped the typical radiators from bottoming out lower.

Made it to 70 ..

I'd be willing to sacrifice some days now, for the UKMET to verify ... so that the word stein is never again floated this summer and/or can be set to ignore

up to 67 here.. d-slope/kadabatic flow combined with nearing solar max intensity, unobstructed sun perhaps offsets. I'm noticing the d-slope wind direction is just about ideally 320 deg, too. It's stunning outside. It is for the hour a perfect top 1 interval of time. We'll see how the afternoon goes

The 00z EPS and GEPs means agree with the principle aspects between 60 and 96 hours, but the GEFs ( and the operational GFS included) do not agree. The EPS/GEPs have more diving mechanics through 100 W in that range. The GEFs ( what's new) lean more progressive in just enough crucial amount that it bi-passes the diving/severing wave space. What's happening at hemispheric scales in the 60 to 120 hours is a coherent d(contraction) N of the entire circumpolar westerlies - A.K.A., the rising annular mode or a +d(Arctic Oscillation) That large scale behavior 'abandons' the ongoing wave transports at mid latitudes, and they end up cut off lows. if/when/whether one sets up between the TV and NE regions has a lot of wiggle room as far as where, and to what scale/degree of amplitude. One aspect about the GFS I've noticed is that it at times sags the mean polar jet latitude out of nowhere - wholesale. When it does, like the 06z version ... it's like it's stepping back 45 days of seasonal change. I think the rising annular mode is likely to occur, as it's own telecon is positive. And I've noted in the past the GFS does the over aggressive N stream. So I find the GFS solution suspect in this case... based on that known behavior, combined with the weight of the other ens means - which also have the rising annular mode. I figure for some form or another of cut-off is probable. But as is usually the case, this is where/when the models perform their worst, pinning down how much and where. Goes to figure ... they've been all over the place with this thing for the last 4 or 5 day's worth of model cycles. It could be a very weak system in the TV with a over arching warm ridge spilling 'over the top'.... ranging to a Del Marva gyre that pumps a seasonal corrective QPF load. Deterministically all this will be helped/depends on how the flow is handled between 60 and 96 hours as the models transport through ~ 100 W across the continent.

CNN: Millennials are giving Gen Z advice for their first potential recession ...oh yeah, how about, think the next time before you cast a flippant vote, flouting the virtuosity of knowing what the fuck your doing -

oh, it was the 06z GFS with that lewd west retro thing. But even this 12z idea strains cred for me by some. The 00z GFS is probably closer to what happens thu D10.

I feel that is unlikely to happen. It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way... In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh. But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error. I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable. I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo. It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde. Personally...? I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.

np ... frankly, I begin to think the PI distinction may be less meaningful since ~ 1998 anyway; since, the curve's become less linear and more exponential. That changes things, because something is happening endemic to these last 2 or 3 decades. It's really like we need to change the narrative to "since pre super NINO 1998" The pre Industrial aspect is like a built in reminder that the 'momentum' in anthropomorphic forcing began when civility converted to an industrial format, but it appears some sort of trigger for feed-back induced synergistic heating is more recent, and dangerous once you get into non-linear responses. We know PI began this - though the laity doesn't. You know, in some quantum sense of it, probably really began when the first lesser hominid picked up a burning stick and light dawned some 300,000 years ago. The curve was likely not linear all along, but to a close approximation, predictions based upon would be relatively well behaved. Case in point, the 2023: a whole planetary systemic temperature surged. If a 1930s sci-fi writer conceived that in 2023 a temperature burst at a planetary scale would take place, it would probably be integral in a d-day plot. When is the next unseen thing going to happen, and wtf is going to be when an entire planet farts. Now that it has really happened... guess were juts in it and not knowing if we're going to win it.

approaching 30 degree delta at KFIT ... 67 ..was 39 there. 41 to 67 here as of 9:10. Bigger diurnal changes in the valleys. ORH stopped at 50

We desperately need a head-scratch emoji. Scientific disciplines sometimes do adopt a word, the use of which is internally defined to the parlance of the scientific dialogue - I'm not sure I've personally ever encountered secular in any context of weather-related science, though - unless ( LOL ) it's how we feel around here when a BD sends summer to NYC while we're stuck in the 40s ... because we're definitely engaged in a NON-secular relationship with the weather when that happens.... secular /sĕk′yə-lər/ adjective Worldly rather than spiritual. "the secular affairs of the parish." Not relating to religion or to a religious body; nonreligious. "secular music." Not bound by the full monastic rule of a religious order. Used of clergy.

Thankfully ... the models are bum pounding another Saturday just like everyone wants -

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-summer-lapland-warmest-years.html