Typhoon Tip

Use logic though ... It's actually probably more exposing who's butt is sore when attempting to end -around climate and logic this early in the year by prematurely appeasing one's self with incongruous claims LOL J/k dude

It'll correct downward over the next week ..obviously - but... that's pretty impressive as a 10 day aggregate mean in August. It's actually rather under the radar extraordinary - I guess that goes without saying as it was exceeding a record not touched in 111 years so yeah ..It was extra ordinary. Anyway, it is much easier to put up a +8.6 day, as well as a week long, in January than it is in mid summer. In terms of that relativity, a +8.2 in August is a > SD for 10 days than it likely is in the middle of the winter. Earth likes to correct the temp up in the winter, but there are physical limitations at the warm end of the spectrum.

There's some interesting features on the high res vis loop... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Look up toward NS and trace that low level pattern of movement - it gives the allusion if not proof, this NE flow is back built way the f out there. It's not just some local to eastern New England circulation eddy. The other aspect, ...it's very narrow. It's like a low level NE sting jet. And it is very low in the atmosphere, because there are layers that probably around the 800 mb level kiting/pealing back NE over top. Then, if we look toward SW NH and NW Mass, the CU field is moving SE and it is mostly sunny. This low level NE "jet" is very narrow and very low tube of air that is really it's own environment - a wonderful illustration in totality of how we here suffer this kind of uniqueness that is really hard to find anywhere else on the planet.

We need to invent an emoji that is both Like and Laugh... But, this more aligns with my own 'subjective' take on it. I like a coherent move in the isohypsotic layout toward a more autumn vibe, where it's not going to return because the hemispheric foundation isn't there. That's usually the the first two week of September -so in the ball park. This is also tending to coincide with the night time/radiative cooling controlling/pulling the daily diurnal means downward - probably shown better graphically. I mean, it's not uncommon to 42 a tanked September 10 low and still make 76 the following afternoon.. but that 76 is obviously a very different 76 than one experiences prior to the breaking. ... But even these are vague as the hemisphere can sort phase above and below the autumn look over a 2 or 3 week period during stubborn years.

Maybe it would help if we adulted this debate by way of one of two aspects: A ... define a set of synoptic metrics once and for all, that when matched with verification, are agreed upon ... Such that if we broach those metrics it's game over - tough shit. Even if some fluke after the fact 91/94/97/95/93 heat wave takes place, ...it has to go in the books as a post broken back odyssey/anomaly, not part of core summer or whatever. B ... Stop using that expression, for ever!

Fair enough ...again, the subjectivity of the discussion notwithstanding ... but I would not personally use that bold concept in the same context as 'breaking summer's back' - that's a little incongruous. I think people "want" summer's back broken LOL ..and we dance and frolic around the semantic syncopation, a groove that resolves the tenor by saying so, without actually meaning that.

Let's not rush things... I realize summer aspects are not very well aligned with the majority/populace druthers ( lol ) of this forum ...But, it may be more apt to say, the recent heat wave's back is broken. Summer? Not on August 10. Brief op ed on the pattern/summer going forward ... I suspect the trough aspect that is about to incur along 90W will, like so many others both this summer, and since the GFS upgrades began parading out new versions like Pez candies in 2014 ... ( yeah, dubious beta testing), have proven exaggerated. What I suspect is more likely, a weakness in the subtropical ridge. It will have some minoring circuitous, meso-beta scaled S/Ws embedded, but not to the depth that many of those recent runs were selling. This may be true for the Euro as well, although these tech sources converge on that similar bias through different reasons. The Euro is already showing the relaxed trough at still 576+ to even 582 dm heights demarcating - that's pretty clearly a summer characteristic. That's probably all this is - a summer trough/relaxation mode. After? I don't know if we return to the same look aloft and suffer some dimming variant of heat potential... I have seen/experienced big heat as late as Sept 10. Anyway, I spoke a bit at length yesterday ... the notion of an EC paralleling deep layer flow - unknown strength but likely on the weaker side ... - probably sets up some sort of Bahama Blue type sky and air, after the initial trough thrust bobs down to about NYC, attenuating as it does... I mean it's not a huge leap to correct that way - the models are already leaning. It is largely a subjective notion, 'summer back break' ... but for me, that happens when the total synoptic scaffolding takes on the the first autumn vibe, with radiative cooling nights taking over the diurnal variation. Something more like that... Having said all that... I do suspect that we enter a tendency for +PNAP in autumn, its self, and faux the early winter by October/November again.

The other aspect that may be interesting ... I got to thinking, I distinctly recall recent buoy/station obs, like 44005 bobbing around the lower GOM, or 44098 ENE of Cape Ann, they were registering SSTs at an astounding mid 70s - I commented on this mid way through the heat wave, how - at least for me - I had never seen that kind of warmth around that geography. Yet ...this air mass arrived from that direction, late last evening. Surely, a mid 70s marine boundary layer should be warmer than a BR 65 F chalk strata air mass. So...I checked those buoys this morning and they have cooled markedly. In fact, 44098 matches the air quality almost precisely... I mean, did this air cause those SSTS to flash colder 44098 went from 73 to 65 at some point when I was not looking over the past 48 hours ...I can't imagine air can do that to the thermal storage capacity of the surface waters, that fast.. It almost seems that a thrust of cold water either upwelled or perhaps wind stressed the surface at convenient timing with this BD. I'm looking also at the general non-hydrostatic layout of both the 700 and 500 mb levels, and there really was only a vaguely discernible confluence going by N of Maine prior to setting this mass displacement off...so, it's weirdly over-achieving - if that makes any sense. I feel sometimes like this corridor E of the Berks/Whites, from about mid Jersey to NS ...is like an atmospheric Bay Of Fundy.

This area essentially E of the Berks-Whites axis, and NE of NJ, is getting a very exaggerated relief by virtue of this BD air mass... One that WPC does not analyze ..pretty much ever, which annoys me. They have the standard synopsis stationary boundary with vaguely closable single contour waves along it, aligning mid PA to the off shore S of Boston, but there is clearly and definitely an air mass type discontinuity in that nose of NE jet that is present this morning. Otherwise, I am looking at that NAM grid and it is clear that the synoptic realm we are still within, even on the N side of said stationary boundary...is still plenty warm. The hydrostatic heights are still in the mid 570s dm range over LGA, and though sagging some...over 570 above Logan - despite the mid 60s F air temperatures there. The orb of the sun may be dimly visible as morning high def vis satellite loop reveals a very shallow lifting over the nose of that NE flow down over SW zones... where cloud elements then peal rapidly back NE over the top. That's actually an unusual look to have that aggressive/low SW flow over the top of a 180 deg opposing surface jet/disconnected air mass. Usually with BDs...that near BL flow has turned NW ...so this is a very shallow air mass. Probably no taller than 2500. For these reasons..probably this doesn't pack in for the whole day - it's just too thin and Aug 10 is still plenty hot sun.

PSM NH 21:56 71.4 65.7 67.5 82 16.1 24.2 NE 29.77 29.88 29.88 Overcast 7.00 4500 0.00 OK 21:32 71.6 66.2 68.0 83 15.0 ENE 29.76 29.88 29.87 Light Rain 7.00 4500 OK 20:56 75.4 67.3 69.8 76 11.5 25.3 NE 29.74 29.85 29.85 Overcast 10.00 9000 OK 19:56 88.5 66.9 73.3 49 6.9 W 29.71 29.83 29.82 Mostly Cloudy 10.00 8000

man... all the way back to 90/75 since that gusty shower a while ago...

huh... I guess that storm took FIT off line?

I know - I get it. and truth be told, in the '2 possibilities' scenarios, I've noticed the hot one seldom gets the call ha

Right right ... already can see it it with the blazing hot vortex being jammed in by the GFS.

... and I can remember so many summers when 95 was just out of reach. 94 twice...92 a dozen times and lots of 88s.. That kind of summer can even be above average if the 86's are heavy loaded and the nights are mild. I think this is a special event. It's interesting - how does it compare to that heat around 20th-26th of July. I think that whole week was above 90 in more so in the interior, and Logan was tainted but ... I can't recall the dailies. Logan did pop 100's cherry on that Sunday

It's an interesting argument whether this thing is acting like a BD or a FD. PWM was 91 when the wind abruptly flipped from W to NNE to E spanning a half hour. They're under 70 now. Satellite looks like the boundary is extending W-E cutting through the heart of CNE ...making steady progress S. Suggests that as this continues to press S against the will of the ridge ... locations will likely spend five minutes with a N flow and then it kicks around to the ENE. I should add ...for those along the NH/MA coasts... I don't know if inland stays more NW or whatever. man..in the meantime, sun is back out in rage since the rain and it's 86/76 ... Not sure if the 96/72 before the wimp thunder was better or worse

I think that's gonna be a 99 today .. just sayn' It depends how the C term is rounded. the 2:05 ob arrived 37 C. The previous 1:54 was 36.1 which gave the 98 value after conversion. Logically, do the round decimal up regardless of range? I dunno.. But if 36.1 somehow rounded to 37 - that is catastrophically stupid policy.

They'll round it... The ASOS was 37 as reported at both Iowa State and NWS GRR's interface, so that works out to 98.6 and should round up -

Logan made 98 ... That's prolly gonna do it as they're about 10 minutes away from TCU field with undercutting outflow... Probably a gusty shower too... This stuff went by here with insidiously dark scary skies that produced 20 mph winds and light sideways rains with gentle thunder. Weird. Sun is out now. Much cooler... it was 96 prior and it's 78 now. I mean 78/75 ... but baby steps.

Went from 90 to 39 in 1998 on March 31 over the Merrimack Valley/UML ... That was the Michael Jordan of BD fronts - Another epic one was back in 2002, when I worked a gig at the 900 block across from BU on Comm Ave in Boston. It was 94 with scattered TCU casting shadows over the city sky line at 1pm; it was 45 at 5pm, with slate ceilings and mist particles when I left the office.. This is a short 2nd to the Michael Jordan BD above... It's not 'liked' - haha.. but one can appreciate the power. That's what I mean by spring... PF is right though..I've seen some interesting icing gradients in like Novie or Dec, when it's 28 F in ageo drain in S NH but it's nearing 60 at HFD. Autumn is the other season more typical.

I think that's more of a pre-frontal DP sweep ... ( but what's the difference -right?) But if WPC's got any clue ( not sure ) the boundary is still draped through NY - N VT. Looks like I got a cluster of heavy showers racing down Rt 2 here. There's a visible wind shift subtending to SE NY from that, but it is moving way faster than the synoptic features really can - so I think maybe DPs tank behind that. Not an uncommon aspect to have DPs run for their lives when a cfront's coming.

Incidentally ... it looks like the BD as 're'manifested and is trying to move SW again... It's really more evident out in the GOM, with wave-form strata along the leading edge... but I wonder if that is attempting to sneak in prior to the front door for coastal NH

I think it more apt to say it is a wild gradient for August ? not trying to tamp down your expression - it is an impressive gradient, regardless. But that is actually pretty common in spring around here - "down here" may be more apropos. Like, I've seen the 40 F differences across even short ranges, between Lawrence Massachusetts, and Hartford CT on some hapless screen door slammin' nonsuspecting day in May, many ... many times. In fact, ALB at 83 while it is 38 F at the end of April's - I think I've seen that at least a handful over the decades. Not sure what the return rate for butt boning BD "extremes" are, as opposed to just the standard dildo ..but I know that 30 F variance between HFD and BOS is rudely fairly common.

95 BOS ? if so we have a winner!

I'm tentatively more hopeful moving forward through mid month. Regime change that looks to have more wet opportunities -we'll see. But if we do succeed a deep layer subtropical sourced connection up the EC ... it would be a neat trick to get through that without rain chances. Even if no organized QPF surges, the lower heights SW while we transport warm humid air N, would likely cause locally corrective downpours with more total areal coverage. Except for Tolland of course.... Could be a Cat 3 hurricane hooking E of Willamantic and Tolland puts up 0.00