Typhoon Tip

It's for symbolism perhaps ...but considering where this winter has been at least out side my doors here in Ayer, seeing it snowing at 28 F is a rare, precious come-by. Well formed small to mid sized dry aggregates, with a couple of degrees to spare no less.

Correct, it is important when evaluating to keep in mind that the magnitude scalar value of total change, is less important than the occurrence change blah blah But this weekend’s more recent emergence in the runs may not be triggered by that NAO … it’s really more a situation of getting caught by it. The ocean cyclone’s set into motion first … then the NAO dumps SDs, and in terms of what that means to the pattern … the.cyclone gets a retrograde momentum applied to it - That appears to be the larger scaled super synopsis. Not a major event. Probably bands rotating in with wet snow cat paws on the Cape with a stripe farther W maybe BOS to PVD and points E.

Re the weekend folks should be aware of this indirect /possible factorization

Walt, it's a personal view ...but I suspect it ...and the 19th/20th ..et al, trending very recently, may be transitively related to the pattern change. Noting the deep layer tropospheric circulation mode over much of central and northern Asia is changing from a westerly predominating flow to a north, in as little as 48 hours! That sends a robust signal down stream and resets the dial across the Pac... Not sure why the GFS has been resisting, but the 0z GEF mean resumed... I don't believe a progressive/native GFS bias is well suited for where the hemisphere is heading post the 20th... so that's negotiable. But the GGEM and Euro are already pressing a latitude ridge signal into western continent by the end of their runs ... The ocean storm in the foreground may be a coincidence, but it actually fits where the hemisphere will be about a week later - fascinating.

There is some chance this 19th/20th feature suppresses S-E in time. The advertised pattern change nearing and especially post the 20th, may be indirectly involved in why. Noticing in both the GGEM and Euro solutions...riding is approaching the western continent and coming on board over the end frames of the 00z run. That may influence the aspects already over the eastern continent. May be evidenced in the NAO telecon, which is slumping through the period, ... moving a scalar mode of ~+1SD toward neutral. While not a phase reversal, I suspect that is responding to the 'crunch' of the wave spacing across N/A ( transitively causing the NAO domain heights to begin to rise 2ndary/ or non-linear wave response if we wanna get into a popsicle headache). But that backs us into a plausibility for less Lakes cutter. The thing is... the EPS and GEPs are not interested - so that puts this into a low confidence, albeit still non-zero chance for success. Sometimes, however, the souped up main operational versions begin to converge on an idea and through rarer, the less refined dispersed solutions then gather in the other direction. I wouldn't bother to mention this post but...we in fact have modeled hemispheric en mass circulation modulation taking place that offers feasibility. So we'll see

Sloppy analysis ... I have not honesty been paying much attention to today's affairs. But just cursory eval against synoptic awareness, a nice little warm advection snow burst. Radar filling in rather quickly over CT and western MA over the last hour..

Noting the NAO slump ... not really a mode change, but it is neutralizing from +1 SD - may be the other side of the same coin with the PNAP changes forcing the NAO domain down. Either way, that might be a sensitivity indicator/suppression tendencies correcting in small but crucial amount, given time.

Also, did anyone notice SE zones could be clipped by ocean storm or OES enhances between D4 and 5?

There is a chance this could evolve sooner with a risk insert... While the 19th/20th may not directly be embedded in the extended range pattern change expectation, but could transitively be influenced ( that outta sound confusing!). The GGEM and Euro ideas surrounding +PP building over QUE and confluence in that area, might be getting enhanced by the ridge surging into western N/A - this latter aspect is the leading edge of the changes ... so, there may be some causality there. Anyway, this is not unheralded, these solutions with cold available at least to CNE and possibly to the Pike in Mass ( if not colder?). I thought yesterday that the bigger polar high idea the GFS had the previous day ...might not be baseless. And it still isn't. There's time ...

You all need another “”fix” to rely upon in times like these other than these models lol

yeah ..this totally happens all the time ....

The GFS offers yet a third option to the EPS vs the GEFS ... No pattern at all - This run has a 9.4 wave pattern over the Hemisphere at D11.5. Garbage solution. It's clearly having trouble on the interface between patterns out there. I'd definitely sans any operational GFS runs outside of 7 or so days, even more so than the normal for extended shenanigans, until NCEP figures out the physics of non-linear wave mechanics...

It’s really not a bad day to look frankly but it may turn active sooner

That first one kind of reminds me of 9394

I’m thinking that the GEF’s machine is trying to see a negative EPO frankly

lol, yup When I was younger I used to hate that… Because it always started happening just when the snow pack was going to really get crazy-we’ve never really had a snow pack really get crazy. 2015 was the closest we ever got to that psycho realm … but the storm train shut off. The last week of February into that March stay very cold with deeply negative daytime highs in the 20s if not high teens, deep into March but there was no storms. It all just shut off as though the hemisphere just ran out of short waves. I always felt that if we had kept up the storm train we could’ve actually made that something special that year something like a 6 foot on the level pack. Ye 1700s style i’ve never been a snow depth guy. Mainly just cause it’s too frequently challenged. But once in a while will get the resting snow pack like between storms around 30 … 32 inches and I start to wonder. It always seems to choose that rough depth to fade back or stop. Talking about where I’ve been in that 300 to 500 foot elevation range. I’m sure it’s different for people of above 700

Yeeeeah it does but, transitions like that don’t happen on a dime. It’ll start being noticeably more twilight at 5:30 and slightly warmer sun to the skin and all that shit probably in the last week of January etc. I mean slight first. Just using that as a vague sort of metric. Folks shouldn’t be offended by that though - just in case - because most of the damage in 2015 (for ex) happened after the solar min ended that month. Really doesn’t mean jack shit until probably the ides of March. The snow retention may be affected because sun shining will start to shard the snow back … detail that only an excruciating nerd would know lol

You know it’s model runs like that GFS… Does NCEP really parameterize the models to deliberately stop storms from forming Heh. Just reading the onion during lunch… In the spirit of their headlines, “NCEP cites ability to stop storm genesis in forecast models a ringing success”

Tough before the solar min ends but yeah… good warm-up recognition for that sort of thing as we head into the nape time of year in about 3 weeks. Same look’ll pop 62 and likely blow MOS/machine numbers first week of Feb. Be interesting to see.

Oh …all that, sure I was just amusing over the surgical precision that model made in abasing the -EPO comments I made earlier in the day… haha. yeah I mean it’s a pattern change so there’s gonna be weird variations on it most likely until it gets closer and all that jazz. It was just funny. Like whatever the great model engineer in the sky, must’ve been listening went oh yeah fuck you. I swear did actually occur to me yesterday that even though it was predominantly a positive PNA emergent so I was wondering if it might try to retrograde into that look.

Madcap hilarity ... man I don't know if any actually paid attention to content in posts today, but... this morning I ventured that the pattern change wouldn't likely be preceded by a -EPO burst, where by a nervy audience would suffer seeing the trough carve west... HA! Seemingly on purpose, what summarily comes from the GFS? THIS

And I would also further that that is not uncommon result in modern more recent climate mode all over the planet. A lot of places are making seasonal quota in short duration from what are called “rain bomb” phenomenon (which “rain“ in this context means any precipitating event). Fwiw, attribution flags they’re related to elevated ambient pwat around or injecting into any kind of rain mechanisms. I posted a don’t give up post over in the NYC Metro sub forum yesterday and I had a lot of this in mind. Setting up two or three week favorable regimes it’s probably something like three or four opportunities to observe precipitation anomalies that make up deficits

Like this particular post. For winter enthusiasm, there need be a changing of the guard, first, in order to “set the table” — entering a regime that has better chances to placate what it is you’re after. This post above recognizes the table as being set, without committing one way or the other. But that’s all that is required for now. Those who feel seasonally lovelorn… You’re at least getting word that girl or guy of your dreams has been talking about you. That may precede an actual phone call lol

The pattern changing and the potential to succeed is all very real, guys. I realize there’s sarcasm and low patience - related blow back but … whether the new paradigm actually rolls eyes back in a d-drip winter event in the models or not, bears no relevancy to whether that happens. Having said that … regime changes can be led and/or exit with events. It seems there is prelim attempt to do so … but it could also be rain/west tracked ordeal just the same

And it seems like these sort of wholesale change scenarios are less often timed in guidance altogether accurately. It will either come in more abruptly, or stage