Typhoon Tip

Reiterating … … the whole hemisphere en masse is tweaking S, mainly wrt the PV. Been monitoring that. Every time it does … the depictions have moved with it.

Kev' if you really are buckin' for an ice storm, you wanna probably halt the suppression in the models now. I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up more snow down to the Pike to be totally honest. It could. Again, as I outlined the other day, the greatest sensitivity in where the conduit axis for this mess sets up is along the interface between two dominant forces: -PNA/La Nina base; PV anomaly in Canada. That hasn't changed,.. but there are very small incremental S adjustments going on with the wholesale PV position ...thus that axis goes with it. That, and the fact the the models will not be able to likely resolve the BL cold by several tens of miles up to 100 or so, ...all told, you probably want this to stop now or we could milk sun and bitter cold PF to Dryslot, with snow ALB BOS and IP in NYC. Having said all that... PV repositions N by subtlety, this lifts back N summarily.

Not sure if anyone caught this ...it's fairly tedious but I still paused when I saw the GFS, at this range of 138 hours ( 12z ), dropped Nashua's 2-meter temperature from 31 ... all the way to 19 F between 18z (1pm) and 00z ( 7pm) Thursday. That's a like tuck jet on steroids. I bet that would whip flags and come in like a BD white noise.

wouldn't it be fun if it ended up down here and y'allz tokin' on cirrus bongs ?

yeah... let's get greedy ... hahahaha j/k

I'd be careful with that interpretation if I were you... I wrote about this in an earlier post, warning of that allusion to finally having the S-SE warm wall in abeyance but it would not in fact - or might not I should say... - actually be that way. It's just compressed to where it looks like the right configuration. But the large number of isohypsotic gradient and the associated base-line wind is a trade off between the ridge structure, replaced by velocity. The ridge is conserved that way ... It's insidiously hidden. But it is an interference pattern. I remember a -NAO like that in 2007 late Feb or early Mar.. ex Heh, near the end of Eastern's reign ... There was all this excitement and optimism for the NAO arrival and it showed up ... all we got was 4 days of gusty gelid knuckle achin' cold winds

Maybe a two pulsed ordeal. The first, the 23rd, wraps up early on the 24th ... then clears and gets windy with falling temps through dark. It's possible there would be WWA and/or WSW zones in activation while there is a Watch posted for the 26th, which starts late on the 25th.

Euro sends another ( the 26th one) right on the heels. Like 24 hour window between it and the predecessor 23rd ...which really doesn't completely wrap up until the 24th. It's interesting because the wind tries to turn S just before, but the turn around between systems is outpacing that the ability to warm by so much, it ends up just the same sort for gradient snow/mix/ice/cold rain - very similar looking actually.

wow... I was just checking out the 2-meter ( GFS) for Thurs afternoon as the TT depiction has it... 18z has 31 at ~ ASH... 00z? 19 ! zomb

I've heard the year 2018 bandied about ... I recall that year as being like that. We had huge -NAO in the midriff up there, and the modeled behavior was retro toward eastern Canada. We heralded it in with a big nor-easter in early March that was cat paws or cold rain... Really infuriating system. It was the one where collectively, the entire Met community knew about the ( at the time ) bias of the GFS for BL wet bulb thermodynamics... How that got through beta and released into operation was always a dog of a head scratch but it was what it was... So, it had a mid range, 38/29 QPF of 3" rain storm, and many of us thought it was going to be end up a blue bomb 33/33... assuming it wasn't properly saturating - which is wasn't. It was modeled replete with a comma head, CCB everything. Nope. 37/37 rain. I mean... wtf!? The GFS got to be wrong while still boning us... how d'ya do that? wow. The retro wasn't why the GFS bias screwed us... But the storm took a weird track.. it collapsed SE as it left into the Atlantic. I think that played a role, because it didn't allow for more cold to entrain into the circulation.. It was all good.. because less than a week later we were tracking a the real deal blue and I'm pretty sure the NAO was in fact starting to normalize a bit by then...

Improving...

mm... I know we've been over this so often the earth is now packed into concrete but I really don't want a big west based elephant ass. Not accusing you of doing so, but the jest tends to ensue a following of posts where people love the big 500 mb magenta, chart edging blob over D. Straight and I cannot underscore enough, that is not really what you want if you want ... E19 ( see above post)... Particularly if the -PNA/ southern warm wall isn't going away - which I don't suspect it is... It's anchored by 3 years of Nina momentum and more intangible angst than Sleepy Hollow. In fact, if the elephant sits on our trampoline height field, it may look like the southern warm wall is in abeyance but that would be an allusion - a lie betrayed by the fact that the wind between Denver and NS will be 120 kts as a base state velocity. It's trading altitude for speed... destructive interference Wrong... no E19 for you, ONE YEAR!

well... circumstantially, that would be true, ...but I'm speaking of 'farmer john's standard correction' for modeling at 120+hr range. I have not seen any graphics that out right compare empirical results to model prognostic values, relative to any time leads... but, anecdotally, I get a very strong impression that the error tends to increase in the ^ amts, farther out in time. I've been jokingly referring to this as 'model magnification' I think of it as when an system first appears at the outer boundary of the model distant times... it's like the moon coming over the horizon on the clear dusty summer evening. It's the size of a pie pan... - fun metaphor. But I think it's because the models don't "see" or detect the physical offsetting destructive interference minutia that are inevitably going to materialize, due to the fact that ultimately ...they don't really predict the future. Those emergent offsets cannot be predetermined - until the human brain trust finally does figure out how quantum mechanics identifies future events... But by then? they'll be controlling that space and along with it, how those events unfolds. Technologies like "the Weather Modification Net" ... and this sort of speculation will have long been a thing of the past. Rain and snow and temperature variance all happening by a carefully prescribed dosing by the technology. No more interesting anything - ... sign me up! Excluding that wild science fiction digression... what the models are left with in the D6 on range is a like 'purified' emergence that isn't being held back by "reality" at those time ranges.

Seems like you're standing in line sneak 'n' txting ... It may be tedious to mention still at 120+ range, but both the GFS and GGEM were a deg or two colder in the llv/wedging air mass. I also - personally - find it hard to believe that a 1030+mb robust +PP situated over W QUE, already dammed into the region prior to arrival of WAA burst ..., will ever yield at the sfc. It may be one of those scenarios where the lift escapes and runs off the region exposing a llv 900 to sfc icy layer. Skies brighten... but don't really clear. Rad looks like the warm front must've made it all the way to RUT-PWM or so... but it's really down along the L.I. S or even south of there. In general, I see two aspects evolving this week: 1 ... more suppression ( how much or little notwithstanding). 2 ... lower overall verification over present QPF ( again, how much or little - ).

Trying..

Spaced that close together in time, amid a ripping velocity saturated shear pattern? Nope - ...can't call those "storms" There's not enough time for all required synoptic parametric ingredients to situate in between. In fact, that kind of minuscule temporal-spacial layout is more indicative of how a fast large scale pattern type is intrinsically a negative interference against any embedded smaller scale disturbances (where/how 'storms' form).. Anyway, the former is just semantics rant ( haha) where because those would be physically challenged/limited in what they can be, 'minoring events' is more apropos. When we say "threat" and "storm" at any passing dent in the curvature of the field, and ( likely...) merely a magnified result perpetrated by the modeling cinema out in time..., then, bounce adjectives of the like back in forth in the colloquialism of the group physics, the group synoptic impression ends up stranded up a on a ledge where the only way down to reality is at 9.8 m/s-squared!

Yeah they just installed their sensor yesterday.

Sunday nape factor of 9

Ha 'cept, I don't think anyone remotely cogent has proclaimed aspects as looking encouragingly snowy, or whatever. What was said by many is that patterning may improve - folks tend to do that... They hit hyper drive on that kind of thing, then it turns into a d-drip let down when the 'odds' don't play out. And it's annoying too, because they construct their memories around that accelerated interpretation.. Anyway, the pattern this next week is actually horrible for snow. It is... Let's get that straight. What we have, or is modeled rather ..., is a PV anomaly setting over top said horrible pattern. That changes the landscape a little, and what we're seeing in the operational runs is tug-o-war along the axis between those two titanic forces. Subtle oscillations N or S scaffolds where confluence will build sfc high... as well as guide alone where that wind torpedo rides over the ridge... Typically we don't really talk snow when a S/W curves west of ORD ...rides along the border, then cuts ESE through central NE - that's the S/W trajectory in the means wrt to late next week... It's all about where the slope of cold wedge ends up in the lower troposphere... Very precarious. Yeah...that is a giant hunk of shit pattern actually... It just happens to be one that is setting up a polished option... Probably? it's more like to be an IP/ice event with a narrow stripe of snow astride... But, I also wonder if the S/W is also going to start showing up weaker in future guidance - the old magnification correction.

Heh... if you're chasing winters... might wanna take note of the climate migration trend and rate of change before committing to a 20 year mortgage. Get all signed on the dotted lines and lubed up and excited for winters like this ? ooh sign us up

hm... i remember a system like this one ( modeled) much earlier this cold season... It started out cold, and then trended N ... then, came back S colder - similar time ranges. But then ended up N in the end anyway. It really - from what I am seeing - is coming down to the PV position and how it integrates with the surrounding hemisphere toward the end of the week. If it and the integral is further N, the boundary and the rippling wave conduit ends up between Flint and western ME ...if it's all S by almost imperceptible amounts, it's an IND-NYC axis. This is may wobble up and down for several days ...

That is an exceptional H.A. event look. However, considering the range, there's limited real deterministic value. But if that were say a 180 hours, we'd have an early thread with 20 pages in 5 minutes for a blockbuster "potential".

As though this were late March ... huge bust potential late next week. The 00z Euro and GFS on either side of the low level cold wedge - although the GFS' attempt at a meso low in the bay (00z) is at least a nod to the notion of some damming... Those two solutions for that mess are pretty wildly disparate over all. Then the 06z GFS comes out with a southward correction ...not quite as far as the Euro's ice storm implication ( with 2" of IP from RUT to MHT), but significant enough to consider... Very complex scenario unfolds where you have two higher confidence major factors controlling, but the type of weather that occurs between them is compressed into a very narrow conduit separate their two different worlds. Those two features are the SPV that's over James Bay ( down to 480 dm!), and the -PNA(SE ridge). They're leaning on each other and imperceptible oscillations in that sumo shoving match means 61 F or 31F across maybe 70 mi, from N OH to S NH as a mean axis between the Euro and GFS ( blended guess). There are competing 'correction vectors' in this...but I still tend to lean colder due to many decades of experiencing late winter and spring cold loading across SE Canada. I don't have formal numbers but a pig load of experience ...the cold wins ( usually..). I was mentioning to John last night that I suspected the 12z Euro solution yesterday was about as far N as this mess could ultimately get before being forced east. The PV acts like an inverted block.. The 00z coming in suppressed seems to odd in favor of cold winning. If the ridge needs to win out that much...it's less likely to mean big snow event up the St Lar...and more likely to mean this shears to lower impact in general... Cold winning doesn't have to mean snow/mix/ice..., but I'm not sure I'm buying 60 intrusion to ALB like some of the recent cycles of the GFS was selling..

Nah... I'd really rather it ends

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