Typhoon Tip

No...and that's my point, too - agreed. Expectations and education - despite our hardened enthusiasm and engagement in a "weather related forum" ( debatable some times, eh hm), we are not really well situated to have realistic expectations and/or real experience based education. So yeah... 10% chance of getting anything means there is a 90% chance you get jack-shit. It's low-yield, high impact. How does that girl that died last week at the Sebago Lake camp grounds when a big pine fell on the vehicle she was occupying, no doubt to flee the storm, feel about the fact we spent three days lampooning SPC's efforts since the last 'bust'... I'm not trying to gaslight - though it sounds that way..lol. It's we all do it. It gets boring and then we're overcome when anything happens at all - perspective fails in that circumstance.

"tornadoes" are a tough ..because the average tornado is a pinprick over a geographic area that is so vastly large by comparison, you can't really see the tornado at the scale of the watch box its self. It has to be magnified by an order of magnitude or more to even see the debris path. But, the thunderstorm and/or aspects containing the vortext are much larger, and can be seen and/or thus experienced with more frequency at any given point, simply for occupying a greater aspect within a watch box. Still, they are much, much smaller than the total watch box geographical area, so they are still on the short likeliness of actually experiencing... Ranging up to MCS, which can be almost equal the spatial dimensions of a watch area, and pour out 70 mph wind events, behind which there are nodel DBZ cores with hail...etc.. Sometimes even tors... That's when severe watches get a bigger unilateral realization. But, then again... how often are those kind of MCS happening .. Bottom line, yeah ... probabilities are low whether the watch is marginal, or very impressively warranted, either way. It's a matter of how low in either scenario. I wonder if regional acclimation is part of it. Like, they'll issue a watch for 2% coverage potential in Maine, because they don't usually get tors...But they may opt for some specials in Oklahoma ? I dunno

Actually ...DPs recovering more than I thought they would. Boo ya modeling...which showed 69 to 72. I keep seeing DPs getting swallowed though, reclaimed perhaps by antecedent aridity in the area. Anyway, there's some lag in SE NH/N MA where is 60s, but it is 70 toward the Pike and SW. There seems to be a diffused warm boundary in the mix here this morning... An hour ago, WPC analyzed one down near NYC but it's probably smearing across the region and losing identity. I'd say it's probably now closer to the Pike looking at obs ?

I think today's a more impressive set up then the last, fwiw - whether it manifest convective wet dreams into reality remains to be seen. We don't hold any accountability for folks not realizing their totally realistic fantasies. But the day hosts a quasi SPV over Ontario moving E toward Quebec, and along the southern periphery of the trough there is wind acceleration at mid/u/a, with a diffused cool front to offer some convergence. More over, concomitant with said wind max there is associated a 3 to 5 dm height fall. These aspects will translate over the area during the afternoon/evening, after subtantive solar heating has boiled modest DP recoveries. This is just the orbital view. I haven't looked at any soundings and observed sfc DPs...just going with (previous guidance suggestion + a-priori)/2. That's shear appears on hi res vis loops, with early vil debris over western NY ripping E, while lower CU fractals are moving NE... so modest but in tandem with all important height falls ( signalling some improving lapse rates), working over a region ... heh not bad

Redirect - good try... Keep at it

What ... y'all don't find -1 Junes in CC an interesting achievement ? Or a general +PNA recent 6 weeks of summer during a La Nina (hint, supposed to be -PNA), intriguing. This latter aspect has protected the OV/NE/MA from what really "should" have been a remarkably hot summer. These aren't multi-strobed, overlapping CG producing EOF4 tornadic supercells ending as a flip to 60" of snow... followed by a comet impact triggering a Yellowstone VEI 10 eruption forcing dogs and cats to live together... no. I get that it is a slow cook "drama" LOL...but it's still fascinating to me... This summer is running some big time anomalies, that are circumstantially unknowable to the common person ... in spooky ways, trying to like 'hide' from notice. Maybe this signal that the overnight Euro and GFS are attempting to cloak in that vein, will finally bring what this La Nina climate signal should have all along.

There's definitely a quasi-miss-conception about what severe "should" mean. It seems there's some lofty expectations for actually seeing severe criteria. Not this last one, but the one before...that was a huge success despite most of us in the region not seeing shit. Then, getting another watch just 3 days later or whatever that was, was also a bit unusual for us by pure climatology - people are acting jilted. The actual likelihood of experiencing severe criteria when inside a watch box is in the range of 10 or 15%. That means that in a tornado watch with an enhanced wording, you're probably not going to see a tornado - much less even criteria. Plus, there are other kinds of severe weather producing phenomenon, so each case needs to be taken individually. Like, the tor box and SC type "tends" to be right turning loner cells - those are the stingers! But that's a low yield, high impact scenario - the low yield side being the rub. That means you don't likely get to be part of the party. The storm is a tiny vessel of drama among a sea -sized region of watch coverage. The other kind is a sweeping cold pool blast back loaded by an MCS outflow which is far in a way more encompassing - if you miss that...then you may have a better gripe justification. But how often do we get bona fide MCS around here? We're really more likely to get fragmented bows off multi-cellular clusters, with the occasional SC thrown in that are mangled by the cluster f and have trouble doing much more than gating a radar scan or two... And every 50 years ... Monson or Worcester.. etc. But that kind of activity is also leaving far in a way more real estate not actually verifying any severe. It's simple odds.

ha, that description is making me hungry for toast

I get the sense when looping all three of the ens mean majors, that what's going on is that yes... there is an important to perhaps major heat signal trying to emerge out there beyond D7. However, it's straddling the 'projection horizon' - beyond which the means begin to run home to the baseline climo structures - so they lose it. Like, the D7 ..8 aspects are on this side of that uncertainty horizon, and the latter aspects... the ens means lose because their collective noisy mean ends up pulling the ridge west toward the Perennial North American Pattern ( PNAP) base-line. The EPS formulates a nasty 594 dm close circumvallate that precariously nears 600, centered over the Ohio Valley... It wobbles it around there for 48-60 hours and then slowly it retrogrades toward Colorado over beyond 240 hours, en masse. That's not likely to do that at that scale and probably is a function of time and fractal accumulation among the contributing members. Canceling all forces out, we're left with the PNAP...etc. They're all doing that. In other words, this is still just too far out in time. Duh

It's so far out in time that these bodily shifts west and east with the ridge nodal axis has to be acceptable, too. This rendition builds it over Iowa, but like you noticed, still 850mb +22Cs skirt over SNE. Until the telecon stops concertedly correcting the PNA from +1.5 SD all the way down to .-5 SD ( total of 2 SD!) between D's 6 and 12, I'm gonna go ahead and assume that we're still in the game for major heat departures. These models sometimes do this ... They might sniff out an early long lead risk idea, then it seems it's a week of invention trying to come up with any plausible excuse not to succeed the original risk idea... Only to bring it back once they've run the gambit of failed offsets. It's more noticeable in big winter storms.. We'll see, but the telecons say not to let guard down "Still in the game" is not forecast, mind us... Just that the NAO is also rising, which is a better marker for lifting the westerlies in latitude over the EC ..so mixing PNA mode change up together tells me that these recent runs are both suspect. That and that 9 days out thing - LOL

Ds' 8.5 thru 10 on this GEFs mean ( 12z ) may not get us into the tallest heat ( or edges...), but it sure looks like a textbook MCS streamlining. Static WNW 500 mb flow with SW flow riding up underneath coming right out of that heat dome. It's been quite a while since we had an MCS ...and I don't count that weird wind bomb thing last October or the year before -whenever that was.

Not that there is any argument ... but, that was same GFS version that also tried so hard to sell 39/31, while 3+" of liquid would fall in a nor'easter earlier that March. The rain worked out, but the temperature's were 32.1/32.1 just were all winter ptype lovers 'wanted' it, but most importantly... what should happen when it's raining so hard we're under water.. The twp ends of that may seem unrelatable ..and seeing as virtually no one knows about model tooling... other than .0000000001% of humanity, it certainly is inCREdibly germane, too Lol. No, but that March, and then the latter July modeling fun above, they were both indicative of the same glaring issue in that particular version. It was really bad with lower tropospheric thermodynamics. So bad in fact it was as though the modelers left out a subroutine somewhere. Jesus, and left the lower levels unresolved right through beta and into production. Whatever the reason, it hugely effected the model's performance in multi-faceted f-up ways. It was embarrassing. It may sound kind of corny but ... the 2018 version of the GFS vs this version running now, a 110 F lala range number is still going to be more believable now. How much so... about 25% ...hahaha. Like, 2018 = 0% clue. 2022 = 25% ...and yes, that's intuitively even generous buuuut... We live in the era of synergistic heat waves, and as we've both and all have observed, we have not experienced one of those in the OV/NE/and upper MA region(s). And they gotta start somewhere... But rest assured... that still leaves 75% in this proof of concept missive that it won't do that. There are other moving aspects... I agree with the higher confidence for a warmer than normal period... I'm not seeing any issue with WPC's 80 to 90th %tile for doing so, as per their last risk assessment. Seeing as that is the case, and the synergy shit's still out there... heh. If we wind up with substantially more than 94/71, I'm not going surprised. Just trying to be open minded, but doing so based on reasons.

I could not scratch my head any less hard over that... that was a bust on my part. I'm not sure if that's also a feed-back (negative) from antecedent parched Earth or what, but I distinctly recall posting prior to last week that folks should consider it a 'regime change' - which did okay.. but part of that regime change was honestly an expectation for more convective rains in the area to go along with DPs. The DPs just evaporated by day and came back by night. It was routinely 75 here at dawns, and 63 with transparent CU towers in the afternoon. It's hard to erupt anything when we're ventilating all our moisture out of the column. I think I know why for that behavior but it's tl;dr who cares long

yeah...2-m that afternoon is a 102 hover over ASH I think I saw... BUT, there is a typical extended range GFS bully trough and deep correction soon after that day. It seems to manifest in that model out of nowhere - but ... meaningless at this range. The model is likely too dry in the BL ...it's probably why it is so hot like that with all them 104 days, because it's over mixed with DPs probably crashing in a shimmering mirages under buzzing sun ... Nights are down into the low 70s, so we'd be talking 35 diurnals - this isn't a desert. This model has always had a problem with theta-e logistics in the lower troposphere. It's not terrible in nearer terms though so...can't expect much from it at D12 LOL. Anyway, there's likely going to be a non-hydrostatic + anomaly through that period ...sending heat our way. But I'm guessing it's 10% less in magnitude and we're really more like 95/68 climo heat wave. If we get closer and that ominous look is there well that's a different take then. The diving PNA and the +NAO out in the period gives the heat signal more confidence than priors this season when combining a telecon spread that much better fits La Nina summer climo than we've seen.

Right ... and what interests me ( and partially annoys, too - ) is that whenever I read the weekly MJO publication/PDFs ..free for viewing here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf ...they keep adding inferences to the MJO being in constructive or destructive interference with the on-going La Nina. On going La Nina ? Yeah, in the water.... I'm not sure the atmosphere is truly coupled to the La Nina "base-state" - in fact, the base state does not appear to be well correlated and hasn't since June 1. The flow construct across N/A is supposed to correlated to -PNA. Yeah, June in England really nailed that, huh - no. CDC also puts out the PNA monitoring and prognostic curves etc... and looking at that, the PNA has dominated the positive mode all summer. That argues for a non-coupled La Nina atmosphere - i.e., NOT a La Nina atmosphere. Sorry...back to here and now: your post reminds me that we really should not have experienced as much nadir flow from the Lakes to the EC, which is allowed (bold abv) as we have.

heh..yeah.. no argument for Nebraska. But, it did get up to 110+ in Oklahoma and N TX during the verification window. That's not hugely far from Nebraska. interesting - ...I don't know what the geographical or spatial actually margin for error should or shouldn't be acceptable at D10 lol. I don't know...but I'm inclined to give at least a nod. Do I think BDL is about to clock 7 straight days of 100 topping at 109? no - I'm equally inclined to at least subtly shake the head on that one.

haha... Heat? In New England, straight through October - That's never happened because Earth can't do that here. Maybe in the late Paleocene-Eocene Epoch that happened...but then again, that long ago... this region had yet to come out of Plate Tectonics. We can have hot summers that go into warm falls ..sure... but there are always breaks.

It feeds back ... yup. I mean, that ridge projection would be capable of loading 97/76 ... basically, lower Corn Belt hell anyway, but ... the antecedent summer environment this year has put us in a situation of limited returning soil moisture. It likely has penetrated deep enough ( check hydrologists ) that flora, floor to canopy species, are all stemming ( no pun intended) the amount of moisture making it to evaporation (evapotran -). For eastern N/A ..there's two sources for DP: land and it's activity; or curvilinear flow loading off the Gulf and/or adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. This type of synopsis out there doesn't have those latter sources. That leaves the land-air interface which oops.. entering that time frame is as such, challenged. So... now we have a ridge that has the scaffolding for some really giant numbers, with low DPs ( relative to climo)... Bingo, the model has no physical hope but to allow the T side to pretty much rise to the full insolation potential. I think a warmer than normal period ( above the CC + climate baseline...) is growing in likelihood. The CPC NAO and PNA are converging fantastically actually... The signals are less useful, at this time of year, more typically.. But, when they are in constructive interference with other trend and climate modes, and ... mm that changes the map a little. I wouldn't suggest 7 days of 100+ temperatures, on D7-13 chart, has any more merit than a 30" snow storm on a D11 chart would in winter. But, we do need to keep in mind, there are times when big scenarios start showing up at extended leads, and they do so because the governing dynamics are overwhelming the typical/'noisy' offsetting events out in time. Sandy did that. So did the heat wave recently in western Europe. ...etc..etc..

It's a situation where it did not help to have unimpressive lapse rates. Marginal instability means ... you don't have room to f around with clouds and light rain spritzing through 3pm... that's A. B, falling heights means d(t)/dz is occurring, and that's your offset instability if/when these other parameters might be getting punked by covnective residue. Almost irrelevent hgt falls --> less d(t)/dz --> not getting the help. I saw that band, calculated it's residence timing to be 8 am through 2pm, and pulled the curtains. No sense or feeling of being boned - it wasn't going to happen, when then adding the fact that the 582 dm contour moved like 30 miles during the course of the afternoon. As a preview, I suspect Friday we have the same aspects to contend with... although, the trough appears a little more differential aloft, so it may not be an ideal analog either.

Mm... not quite. The day was marginally unstable, with a good shear mechanics. Noormally, that's a good - not great ... - but good combination. But, not when it is cloudy for the first 2/3rds of the high sun hours. It was not enough, not in time. Yeah, it cleared ...but it's not black or white - as in, 'cleared' or 'did not cleared' It wasn't enough... There's also some noise that got in the way too... I noticed that a modest/ill-defined prefrontal trough situated along and E of the Berks over western zones, ...roughly around the time that clearing began to take place. That backed the wind more west and seeya' later DPs... That started the pseudo dry-line evac. That's not an uncommon feature with those W-E orient summer fropas around here. Typical to see the DPs crash ahead of the cold front, with line(s) of premature ethunderulation along with it. It wasn't hugely obvious that was taking place, but it smacked somewhat of having that tendency at the same time it cleared. My temp bounced from 81 to 87 when it cleared, but the DP corrected from 74 to 64 and we had zero CU when that happened. Then, the cfront limped through with a line of transparent sunset CB and that's the ball game.

Lol at 75 at the end of that string of days... brrr!

Btw, in memory of Mish Michaels, who we tragically lost earlier this spring, there is an effort in memoriam, "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" being constructed at the Blue Hill Observatory. I brought this to the attention of the board via the banter thread, as there is a fundraising effort in association with the cause. Details are contained there if anyone wants to drop by and consider, or just take a look. Secondly, deadly heat wave on the 12z GFS ... "weather" the 850 mb or the sfc 2-meter lag behind the 500 mb non-hydrostatic evolution, as they typically do at this range ( D9 - 13), thus shirking the front 2 days of possible big heat ..., aside, ...closing a 600 dm ridge node over eastern Ohio with zero large scale mechanics for delivery here, would like rival anything that has happened in history should that really evolve that way.. Anyone can go see it but here ... That would be taking 101 type DTX heat and moving parabolically "over-top" and down on a WNW "d-sploping population demographic" ( lol ) if that happens...

This past March, with the untimely passing of Mish Michaels, our meteorological community lost a very special and talented contributor to our field. Mish' was a great colleague and friend. I had the opportunity to work closely with her during my Meteorology internship at WHDH, as well as during her contributions and brief professorial tenure at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell, during the mid 1990s. Mish was an extremely giving person, full of positive energy and optimism for our field, embracing any opportunity to be the teacher, or just sharing vivid anecdotes over dramatic events. She touched so many of our lives, and she should never be forgotten. Enclosed please take a moment to learn more about a fundraising effort for "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" being designed and built at Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA. Any contribution you would like to make will be most appreciated. In addition to her celebrity as a broadcast Meteorologist, and her times engaging with Universities, Mish was involved with the Observatory for many years as a board member and volunteer educator. She actively engaged and encouraged thousands of young minds to pursue careers in the sciences. Contributors giving $200 or more will be invited to a festive, early evening event on August 10th at Trillium Brewing Co in Canton, MA. Meteorologists, Tim Kelley, and Harvey Leonard I will be speaking. And all contributors will be invited to a special and private ceremony when "The Mish Michaels Exhibit Hall for Scientific Discovery" is completed in early 2023. Blue Hill Observatory's Youtube Page https://youtu.be/hepGUZ-j1Sk Donation Page https://blue-hill-observatory-science-center.square.site/ Please be kind enough to share this with everyone you know who would want to honor and remember Mish. The forward would like to thank you, so much.

We'll probably have a stretch of temperatures similar to what we just had, even though the teleconnectors look far and a way more robustly ominous for an actual heat signal - it's like that...

Probably. Kind of a zonal flow through early next week with that closed low rollin by on the polar side. Should send a boundary or two side swiping thru. Massive heat loaded ridge in these recent GFS runs next week. Where? Too far west or far enough east. Meanwhile the Euro fights it’s own ens but where the GFS is probably the mandatory 10% too amped the Euro’ll likely bloat some eventually. I think it’s real … a hot early August. MDR may come to life around then.