Typhoon Tip

Which run did you have in mind - like,... which specific run cycle. The 00z and 06z look nothing like in the 15th to 25th. Secondly,no one should using a model as a "snapshot" - ... I mean obviously... Look, this isn't an engagement that has anything to do with Meteorology and everything to do with f'n around. You've been instructed, both kindly and condescendingly ( because folks are at a loss), and being an intelligent guy yet impenetrable to logic and propriety ... it is clear there is no interest in Meteorology. I am officially wasting my time typing and will now stop - LOL continue to have fun. Life is short

What about it -

I know why the summer's averaging like this... and why it is likely to persist - how long? mm.. not sure I'm willing to bet the end of the month roasts... It may take past the solar max ( ~ Aug 8 exit ) for this shit to stop. But does that matter? Like this week, we should be 85 to 91 in two intervals through D7 ... 9, with the interlude merely back to average. It's not big heat, no. It just boring anadyne weather of the dog day variety ... Tough time of the year for drama enthusiasts that need any dystopian model cinema to make their lives bearable - lol. But the truth is, it's not really that cold? it isn't... So far this month the 4 climate sites over at NWS Boston's on-line climate sheet for dummies are averaging +1 to +1.8 We had a < normal night ... numerically insufficient to move those 10 day weight means above much lower - and in fact ... given to where we are likely heading ... it's going the other direction over this next 7 days. And that is, despite the overall appeal of the pattern configuration. All these locations were 82 .. 84 yesterday - save Boston, which they get the Harbor fart nod no matter what's happening. Yet we are in a pattern that certainly looks cooler than normal with that perpetual nadir in the heights over SE Canada. When not incurring a trough here, there's not ridging either. See ... there's weird offsetting relativities going on... We are in a cooler than normal circulation construct that is having trouble producing actual below normal averages despite enabled winter obsessed gloating. Even considering last night... I guarantee, the 7-day mean will be negligible negative and probably ends up negligible decimals the other way. Bustin' our balls there a bit but truth is, it's not demonstrative - it's been more pattern symbolic. It's like we have vying relativity's... You know? It's normal to modestly warm, relative to a cool looking pattern. Yet where it is hot in the country, it's threatening to get wicked. It seems the music of CC plays in the background despite the cinema of the moments attempting to lie about what is going on.

Yet this...

Personally I am suspicious that CC's may be forcing circulation modal changes ... Those that want to say summers used to be this way routinely decades ago, don't really abase that idea - those summers got here through a different means that did not require 595 non-hydrostatic bulge and us being so calved while still having heights nearing 582 ... ( hint, we've been routinely 90/70 at that height in those distancing summers) It's a silent example -

In any case... here we are, rinse and repeat... The 12z GFS smashes in another trough and packs the heat back west again. If one is a heat enthusiast, pack it in - not happenin' James. Something about the planetary physical/total manifold is anchoring and unmovable.

that's a little dubious there - not you... the model. Ex, the high T's under that neutral area of Missouri, N Ark and Il start at 90-ish and end up at 100-ish spanning those days, and the GFS sells almost no 850 anomaly - seems a bit cool biased and weird for those surface temps. I realize climo for them is warmer but I don't believe it is 90-100 "normally" spanning 5 days like that, either. something seems off in the GFS or this product.

This^ has occurred to me often in recent days. … But more specifically wondering how a 1930s pattern would fair over top this CC footprint …superimposing constructively

The huge heat event idea for the Plains lapsing throughout the MS Valley and western Lakes and all that is beyond D7 still ( btw - ) not that anyone asked, but just sayn' Which makes it unlikely to even occur, in deference to understanding and the blah blah inherent model limitations that are blah blah blah. In the meantime, the the 00z Euro has two consecutive runs that keep the 850 mb, +15 isotherm near or above the ORD-BUF-BOS arc, from D3 thru 10. Whether we get the pattern to engineer some historic dome of heat agog, that is a separate matter to me. 'Should be considered mutually exclusive to a leading possible 5 .. 6 day stint where/when clouds and RH notwithstanding, the highs may make 87 to 90 daily, anyway (SNE .. our NNE brothers and sisters modulate for latitude) The 00z GFS does obtrude a 30 hour interlude of +8 ... +11 C 850s with a more aggressive frontal cleansing late Wed... not completely sold on that as the ens mean of both it and the Euro (eps) are less so. Maybe... NNE will get clipped by a transient correction, but both guidance types have a hybrid heat conveyor coming in by late Friday, N-S As far as DP ... not sure that looks huge. I'd lean at negative relative to this sort of summer miasma, just based upon a mean of two primary factors: ( continental seasonal trend + the circulation mode that morphs into that look )/ 2 = tendencies to have less theta-sourcing. Kind of like a dog days of August, 1 month early, with a twist of CC hiding in the 'decimal forcing'

Lol... months. right - A Cat 3 storm, you'd be talkin' swath denudation of Long Island. 'Specially if it's moving N apace such as a 1938, which was caught in the deep steering field between a quasi closed weakness ( reanalysis ) SW and an evolving maritime block. They'd be picking bedroom linen and personal detritus from southern L.I. short communities, out of the stripped tree limbs at the head of Narragansett Bay. The bank statements found in the fields of CT would be mapped back to slabs.

ya never know

mm..not to be a dh but that's no real revelation. The amount of warming so far fits inside of ~1.5 Deg C since 1900. Granted that does not distribute equally, everywhere, with some areas preferentially heating more so than others, and even other areas offsetting due to circulation modes changing...whatever. Point being, ~1.5 C (2.4 F) doesn't seem intuitively like that is vast enough to preclude 50s from ever happening during summer nights. Since the year 2000, we have been warmer than normal over SE Canada and the NE U.S./lower Maritime like everywhere else, but I have personally noticed that some 2/3rds of the total months since 2000 ( ~ 160 of them ) came in with a modest cool node over or near enough by, relative the rest of the global magnitude. Something peculiar about the continent and physical geography, and the way it fits into the planetary engine causes the circulation modes to favor those regions for that. Not always... a fair number of months 80 to 100 were quite warm too. I'm not sure it requires a lot of calculation to see the shape of the argument there.

I wish there was a sort of "integrated electron-volts" index that determines the thermal size/weight of these things. Because it seems to me that which is being proffered by these recent GFS runs is pervasive, not just in the y-coordinate. 2012 was massive in that regard.. at it's max, I think St L to Washington were all high 90s/mid 70s DPs... 300 or 400 m either side of that axis something. But, a metrical calculation/integral would help rank these things, too - Like ISE but for heat anomalies. That image above has more contiguous regional inclusion surpassing 100 F than I can recall ever seeing... Maybe going back 1930s?? I know there was some extraordinary heat that overtopped from MN to Philly in one of those back whence.

Yeah that's what's been f'n with me this morning. That should correct lower ? I don't think that survives the next week of modeling but you know... I can't really discount the idea entirely, because of the Pac NW last June ( 2021), and the mounting numbers of "syntergistic heat waves" events that have been observed, globally, as a coherently increasing frequency. We have not really had one of those in Kansas... We've had two that got us close... 1995 and 2012 ... But the super heating deal that surpass the 110 is really a uniquely deadly sort of shit show.

Yeah...I vaguely recall that - I was but a small boy.. heh. I had just experienced my first EF3 ( the rating scale back whence) tornado from all of .5 mi away, as it bore a canyon through the business district of downtown Kalamazoo, Mi on May 13th (Tue, not Fri!) earlier that spring. Later came the heat, but it never really bulged very well up into the Lakes... In fact, the warmest I recall it being during the 1975 to 1983 era in the Lakes was a 96 once...but I was early adolescent and not really entirely aware. I think the 1980 heat down south got me interested in that.. .10 or so years later, came the 1995 Corn Belt to southern Lakes event, then I became fascinated. I don't want to be in the heat ... but it the synoptic meteorology is pretty interesting from a purely nerd's perspective -

Well... looks like we're getting run to run consistency for the ending of civilization in the Plains as we know it ... It's interesting when we think that all that has gone on since the industrial revolution is/was inexorably prologue to the invention of the models that thus predict the end of civilization ... for having created the models. That's an interesting story -

yeah, no problem - 'hey, can y'all give me a lift?'

Worse than that.. street asphalt failure and railroad track warping become problems a temperatures and high sun well below 115 .. That's not likely to happen out there ( btw ), with the GFS' dystopian cinema ... we'll see - but in 1998, the above aspect took place from heat in the 103 to 105 range in Texas. Dallas pinged 107 in that.. They called them 'sun kinks' ( tracks), but it's really just heat causes older track lays to expand beyond the contact points and being just pliable enough in the high heat to then necessarily expand they bend. It caused derailments. Modern lays ..I'm pretty sure are precalculated for expansion so that doesn't happen. With street asphalt it can cause the material to fracture.

From this range, you're actually better off if the front looks later rather than the 18z problem. I haven't looked at anything, but that's my experience over the decades. If the front is along a Watertown NY to State College, PA at 18z, you're doing perfect for 6 pm weakly bounded mesos throwing pulsed CGs and wind reports ... Dying as they move E of the Berks and/or diving S with the right turning curse of SNE, of course.. but at least there's a chance. Lol, no but seriously ... when fronts are approaching, we tend to produce a coastal planar barometric dip. That trough backs the wind W, which is then converging with SW wind along and just ahead. That does two aspects: one, it causes d-slope DP drying where the wind backed and that produces a quasi -dry line to evolve. The other aspect is that the convergence along the trough is a trigger axis. If there is substantive heating prior to 18z, and the front is still way back west over central NY and PA, that's usually close enough that increasing velocities aloft adds some shearing kinematics ...

Seee? Severe happens all the time -

Jesus Christ. ...hmm, 'instincts' for the win, I guess. I mean, the brazenness of that kind of thing - like it's one thing to pose immorally, from an ethic of criminal abandon on the Internet, but to be out in the open... an actual perp' at your door. Hey ...I guess give 'em props for having the onions to pot roast up a scheme in actual person. wtf chuck. haha. Ayer is an interesting town in state of gentrification flux, of sorts. We've talked about this at length and bloviating posts in recent years .. but the affluence ring of higher salaried ..more upwardly mobile economics has been propagating outward through the metro-west of Boston, out into the 495 belt through the 1990s, and has in recent decades now come out this far to Ayer - which is about 10 mile further up Rt 2.. As that income settles this town, there's is still a kind of a hang-over of lower income BS that still goes on... Not trying to be stereotyping but c'mon -get real. There are still 29-year olds riding BMX bikes to the package stores, cutting in between BMW SUVs in stop and go traffic ..etc. Sort of a mash up between "Ware" ever Mass with forest cleared, new neighborhoods going in erecting these standard form 500 thousand dollar homes. Part of me feels it is both par for the course that these assholes wouldn't get the gentrification wave and a sense of impropriety, as much as one is inclined to think that shouldn't happen here - but this latter sentiment is obviously a conceit if not arrogance, too. I get that. But there is still a kind of expectation when tony arrives. Like sophistication creates its own prevention. Perhaps not enough

yeeeah, we know - Folks just having fun with the dystopian cinema of the thing. We'll return the agoggery when there's a D11, 948 MB low stalled on ISP, LI for 3 days leveling a circumvallate 60" glacier around the NW arc from PHL to PWM.

Sort of related... heh ... weird, but I had a knock on the door, yesterday, and it was this guy from Omaha Steaks or whatever that company's name is... replete with b-ball cap and logo'ed polo shirt. Idling behind him was a refrigerator outfitted pick-up truck - it had the crest on the door. He explained that he was in the area doing deliveries, and had extra product ..." would I like to take a look," he would offer them to me at discount prices. I dunno..but something instinctual ( perhaps ) kicked in and it just didn't seem appropriate to have a freezer outfitted pick up, just show up out of nowhere offering meat for some reason. Probably didn't help that as the gentleman spoke, the one front tooth being the color of tobacco triggered all kinds of stereotypologies in me... Hey, call me a douche - I thought fast, and crinkled a slight one cheek grin and said, " I just wanted to let you finish, but sorry bro - vegetarian." Which I'm not...but, it was a remarkably quick and effective means to exit what was a subtly awkward if not shady encounter... I mean, does "Omaha" do cold call stops like that? anyone ever heard of such a thing?

I mean forget Sonora ... 'magine if we got an "Oklahoma heat release" ? Imagine some scenario where Earth's system could actually physically engender those kinds temperatures in that area, then a sudden, there's a repo of the ridge E dragging that quickly along ...too fast for it to radiatively give its self back to the cosmos along the way... It really would be 110 F at LGA and Logan