Typhoon Tip

Just 3 days and I win! I'm pretty sure this month has been a Mr Blutowski ...which was a my evil goal, to see a 0.0 month during all this popularization ( and even among sciences...) of CC causing the opposite. I never liked the assumption - certainly not the use of it to sell headlines. I can think of plausibility too easily why that is not necessarily true, worth research - yet no enabled sources attempt to do so. Makes me think it's just another example of species now exhibiting diminishing returns. It's another drug to fill the needles of a species increasingly psychotropically addicted/slaved to the greatest mass opiate since the invention of religion: dystopian news delivered as a stimulus. something like that - But even if some random over achieving CU managed to .01 the Basin ... setting the record probably still qualifies a win.

That sort of 'observation metric' may not work as well in a stressed flora state due to desiccation factors. Trees are cutting out with yellows and death brown in clumps of leaves that have nothing to due with 'normal' seasonality triggering leaf chemistry changes - which is why colorization happens. They are simply dying off members prior to getting to that normal destination.

Yeah ...I dunno. It would be difficult to parse out how much of either, that RNA/-PNAP stuff, vs just a compressed hemisphere in any attribution sense of it. I don't believe multi-season/perennial persistence for compression was not part of that, however. While at the same time, the -PNAP was raging. I.e., some of both. I can tell you this much, ...either alone might cause a destructive interference pattern. Together? f ed

Yeah...this has been emerging and fading ...emerging and fading in guidance ever since typhoon "Tokage" smeared its guts across the N Pacific - not sure those two are unrelated. It's early in the year for the 'recurve correlation' stuff, but... I have tl;dr hypothesis why it may matter this year - perhaps more so than typical summer. Anyway, it's transient..

Wrong

That's been a leitmotif with increasing prevalence over recent decade(s). There are exception periods, or specific events, of course. But in general. Shearing systems due to velocity saturation from too much gradient in the means between the 35th and 60th latitudes. Sometimes as many as 15 isohypses is the base-line state, and that's outside of actual S/W wind maxes. That will impose an attenuation. It shrinks the d(v)'s ...or tends to, and the S/W don't have mechanics to do as much, because they are not differentiating the flow enough to impose Norwegian model jet structural responses. The ones that overcome and develop better total cyclone space within that flow and the storm moves along at ludicrous speeds. It's weird though because this hurried maelstrom thing is happening with elevating pwat, which seems to be offsetting the total mitigation - it seems to more effect storm structure and placement. I mean all this from orbit. There's exceptions and goes back and forth with more and less coherency.

Oh I'm all but fully convinced there's a kind of electron double slit uncertainty principle thing with convection, where as soon as you observe the convection it does that -

The cell over the southern aspect of the Capital District appears to be bowing... Meanwhile, explosive CB genesis is igniting from N-central CT to through Mass. Could be one of those ordeals where these cells take of the show here. They're maturing into a more than less a line with discrete cells embedded and as they sweep eastward they'll correct the instability... There may then be more developments along the Cfront

it's one of the initial conditions where the shear is directly self-evident in the early CU/tower orientation. They're big time leaners. The towers are tilting off toward the ESE, while the bases are moving more E. This gives a subtle 'rolling' look to the CU. It's not hard to imagine if an intense updraft dangles vertically through that environment, it will take the rotation and potential meso it -

hoho man - that'd be a helluva way to find out. jesus - I think I got stung ( count-ably) twice prior, and I remember both. Once a 6 year old at a beach day at a lake in Michigan. Stepped on one of those mud dobber wasps. They're black-brown, and have a skinny sub-thorax stem that leads to a bulbous venom and cartridge ass area - heh, ...I'm just calling it that. They use that stinger that's like 1/3rd their body length for immobilizing prey but it becomes a remarkably effective defensive weapon when a non-suspecting 6 year old boy places his bear-foot squarely down upon one of them and mushes it into the hot sand. The other time was a freak. I was in school, in a class room ..minding my own business. Same exact kind of wasp had crawled up my pants leg and apparently took exception to the idea that it was trapped and attempted to use it's stinger to drill an exit portal through the soft, supple tissue of the back of a child's knee. I honestly think, out of all three of those experiences, the beach, the honey bees, and this one here, this one hurt the worst in terms of jolting initial pain. I don't think it was a mud dobber, but had a similar body type. It was kind of comical...because I jumped on a kid like a drowning person does the rescuer as some weird panic reaction at the instant the searing drill entered the leg, and this non-suspecting kid actually stood up, as he was a couple years older, and carried me for moment on shoulders while yelling what the hell are you doing.. Oh man.. I was destined to be dork I guess. As I stood there sobbing with the teacher trying to calm me down enough to ask me what was happening, it crawled out along the top of me shoe.

When I was around 10 years of age, me and neighborhood kid were walking along the top of an old log in the woods. yup - It seems the combined weight crashed through the top and almost immediately the air was dimmed a foggy brown inside of an orb that contained us, along with that classic sound. Screams and rapid heart rate panic quickly took over. I remember crashing in the back door, and even by the time we had run the distance, there were still a few straggler bees in pursuit. These were not yellow jackets. They were honey bees. I got poked 14 times. The neighbor kid only 7, but I remember he pulled a couple of dead beez out of his underwear. man... honey bees may die and all when they sting you, but don't have any illusions - those mother f'ers carry a wallop. I didn't suffer more than local swelling, and the moment of terror. There wasn't any kind of additional allergy symptoms.

It's frustrating as a baseball enthusiast. I can't (fairly) call myself a fan, because I'm too stingy about giving up my time for the games during times like these. It's tough for me to imagine my rating input helping the profit margins of an organization that has (frankly) seemingly become incompetent and almost dishonest. Whatever the cause, they are not giving enough back to us in celebration to want to bother. I mean, that's what it is... we want them to win. You know, it's the same part of the brain that processes 'winning' a coastal storm ...hurricane,whatever - you get sick of failure, and do other stuff. At least I do. I mean I have responsibilities to the weather pattern/notification that I have to engage with, but my engagement in forum antics gets more glanced when the pattern is incompetent - haha. Anyway, cocktail of reasons seems to be cratering this team this season, well below the last 20 or so years of productivity mystique. I'm not sure if it is all GM, or none GM. I'm sure sports OCD et al have fervent opinions on the matter. But I seem to recall this GM inherited a pitching core that's prone to injury. And didn't have enough of a farm system. They used to also be an organization that developed pitchers in the triple-A and stuff. Had scouts skulking around D.R. ball parks with a Rosetta Stone English for dummies and an extra-double top secret "preapproved" work visa application, for a tattered ragged 98 mph 15-year old prodigy. Kidding of course, but it's arrogant that they are relying on 15 years of erstwhile relative success momentum, to carry them through a season of apathy, while selling it to us on NESN and other means as there's still hope. Fuggers

That fist sentence? hilarious ... it's like, 'ooh, not gonna end well' You know, I just did a road trip to Michigan and back last week. Once you get west of about Pa, it's not all that uncommon to see these black leather clad Harley riders with nothing more than a beanie helmet. Sometimes? none at all. I'm like, really - They're cruising along ...you can just feel their aura of defiance as they're riding with one hand, the other on hip, at 78 mph. Full face and nape exposed. They have to have been popped before. I mean I don't see how they haven't. I ride a road bicycle and got whacked and stung on the lip once doing 17 or 19 down a bike trail and my handle bars were wobbling from the repulsive shock. What the f happens when a sting enraged bullet tries to tunnel through your neck on a Harley.

LOL, ...seems to be a leitmotif of Tam' getting stung for doing god's work - hahaha yeah, I know bumblers'll sting in general, if provoked enough... I was talking within that context of that setting, as they're busy foraging in the bounty the Delphinium provide - it seems they are too distracted ? seems that way - like in Africa: the lions sometimes will be seen at the side of the watering holes lapping, while Caped Buffalo are right near by doing the same. ....not withstanding crocodiles, which appear to operate within their own moral code ( i.e. none ), there seems to be some settings where there is a mutual understanding, unwritten code among species to suspend all hostilities. I mean that's probably a Disney version..but I have seen that image before where thirst overcomes all -

oh I know... just banterin'

I was just gonna say... Take that storm track and tip it 50-70 miles to the left. That would be stronger than the 1938 hurricane, sweeping ( perhaps literally!) over a structural and communication infrastructure that is, of course, orders of magnitude so much more densely evolved than even 1938, that any comparative calculation would almost extends beyond the imagination. People don't really get what that would be like. Sorry. They don't. Little hyperbole, perhaps ... just a little. But blah blah blah we've discussed the 'big one' like Californians do Earthquakes and so it is too, just a matter of time. All that is has been put into place during a relative climate quiescence ... and remains untested. The 1950s probably instilled a false sense of integrity to the above systemic modernization of this region of "disrespected" vulnerability. Because they came and went within a mere billion of commerce. Now? not much more then memories of grand-dad's fables, and he's been been dead for 20 years of continued cavalier times. It's gonna be a lot fun ... collecting southern RI, CT, SE Mass toilet paper, bank statements, bras, and a body part or two out of stripped trees of the deep interior, and a 6 week shut down of Boston and Providence and Worcester Metro while special engineering teams complete the architectural testing of high profile sky-line structures that bore the brunt of 180 mph 4 minute wind gusts. Not to mention the toxic quagmire almost as bad 9/11 miasma, choking the streets below... Cat 4 hurricane moving 50 mi left of that track at 50 mph forward translation velocity? I dunno - we live within a probability for lightning strikes, too - good thing those don't really happen, huh.

Wow ..someone's in a huffy mode today lol

NHC seems quite hog-tied to the models in recent era. I noticed this behavior began some .. 7 or so years ago, where they don't pull the trigger on Invests regions, unless the models emerge a cyclone in that same vicinity. It's purely a statistical move, I suspect. Though not sure ... they may be able to prove the models have crossed over a skill threshold, where/when they now can project discrete regions of interest with superior ability over human observation-based extrapolations. Fine... you use what works. But looking out over the MDR since yesterday... they carry on with two, low chance Invests. One near 65W over the eastern Caribbean, the other near the same latitude way east near the Cape Verdi Islands. The vast region in between ...? Nothing - Meanwhile, there has been a persistent deep convective event existing in perpetuity ... in the vast region in between. One that now appears to be taking on cyclonic motion on higher res vis imagery as the dawn swept over the Basin. They may right. This isn't intended to cast shade or doubt, or deride their skill and efforts...It's just that it's a little head scratching at times like these, when they're holding onto coughing entities while ignoring the health of the other contender. Now watch... just because I post this missive... in 2 hours flat it'll disappear in spite of 24 to 30 hour of perpetuity... and the other two will explode - typical. They probably have some kind of super ensemble regression algorithms or some Sci Fi shit going on to deduce stuff, were as we the hoi polloi celebrate our egos as prognosticators by utilizing the granular crap we get for free on the cartoon web sites. ...so whatever. I "think" the eastern Caribbean disturbance might be the one the overnight GFS solutions eventually bomb in the Gulf - I mean, I don't deny the disturbance is actually there. Nor abase needing to monitor it. I just wonder if this might be a rare situ where the mid MDR feature, being ignored, dark-horses the spin-up race. SAL does not leap out as being very preventative per Wisc.edu, nor does the relative shear in that region.

I don't even agree - not sure what the poster is looking at. That circulation mode wouldn't allow an EC engagement. But not sure exactly what they are seeing.

It's interesting pattern of behavior ... Somehow my lawn has been invaded by Alpine Delphinium that emerge perennially, producing an absolutely stunning blue-violate flower. They grow in dense, uniform arrays so jaw-dropping one would have to be a sociopath to so callously run a lawn mower over like Kevin. In fact, neighbors going for walks often stop to observe them in May, commenting their jealousy. "How did you grow those... where can I get those" I don't know. I can only imagine contaminated seed stock when doing autumn over coverage ... years ago before I learned how that sort of lawn appearance is toxic to base-line ecology. One such evidence to that? Bees... All kinds of them. There are vast numbers of pollinating bee species. When they are full bloom, bees of all kinds of shapes and sizes can be seen zig-zagging in and out, and in between the flowering canopy. Bumble bees, and honey bees, and bees in between. In fact, in a silent moment when the background of the town shenanigans happens to drop off, you can hear the whirring buzz of their frenzied foraging. They don't sting. Not once have I been bothered. And I've actually stepped into the patches of the blooming arrays to pull out opportunistic weeds and such. They just ignore me. The softy in me wants to think they know why I'm there. But in reality ... they're just too sated by all that bounty the Delphiniums provide. Singularly too intended on getting even more, the preoccupation won't perceive us a threat. Ha, probably why we haven't been to the I.R. yet

Jeez ... had the thought that Tokage's absorption into the N. Pac circulation manifold might lend to some downstream amplitude over western N/A ...at last, enough to shot across the bow us with a cool shot. But looking at day's GEFs and EPS 850 mb anomalies, they don't appear impressive enough to warrant much hope for that. It just won't be 87... 79 for two days? I dunno It may be a mild back for 2 days, but ... beyond that, the baseline mode of warmer than normal ( ~ Sept 3 --> ) reestablishes itself. In fact, there are really no negative anomalies at all below 50 deg N over the eastern 2/3rd of the continent, right out to the end of those runs. We can't call every cool shot the end of summer, just because it coincides with the calendar time of the year. If we're spending 90 percent of a 384 hour looping above normal ... By the way, even if a hurricane were to MDR its way into rare existence for this season, I see no evidence - for now - that the hemisphere will orient in such a way as to make it an EC ordeal.

Of all guidance, that model will definitely take the opportunity at this range. I was just describing for Ray that I'm on the fence. Model performance persistence, namely ...backing off trough bullies when relaying mid ranges into shorter terms... But, this time, Tokage over the western Pac. Thing is...it's a bit earlier for that correlation to kick in- but, the westerlies have been orchestrating unusually defined whole-scale wave structures all season. This latter aspect "seems" like the hemisphere might be more open to constructive interference - bit of an abstract idea I guess. We'll see. Usually we get a 'shot across the bow' air mass at some point here end of Augie into September. ... like a 76/42, and the air mass bleeds out heat at sunset and the temp falls like someone broke the mercury bulb and its draining - it may be that either way. But in a ferckota way I figure some aspect of CC is to find a way a f-up cool shots, too haha

I figure you're a man of 'who cares how; just get it done' ..mentality in such matters, but that 'cool down' next week may or may not be real in my o More so than just typical model uncertainty, there are reasons to suspect it is just a model artifact of typhoon recurving antics over the western Pacific ... Tokage is just completing that parabolic graveyard motion, and is being absorbed into the westerlies ... As we know, there is a correlative for reinforcing L/W orientation, that lends to western N/A ridge flexing. It's a correlation that is much stronger toward deeper autumn/early winter...but, mm.. I feel with the westerlies being overly active all summer long anyway, albeit high latitude, that "might" open things up some. Question is, how much, if so... I mean from there, the models are routinely over amping troughs in that range, so given any excuse to do so, they'll likely try to sell that. ... if Tokage does effect the wave orientation, they may have more of case, but climo says that's tricky.

Re SNE Friday From what I just looked at re Friday ...if the Euro fields are precisely realized there should be clusters with leading discrete cells exhibiting tendencies for rotation...first NE PA to eastern NY ...then propagating E from noon onward. I like the back tilt with height look that morphs through the region between 18z and 00z. Over that time span, there is a subtle, perhaps crucial wind acceleration from the SW at 925 mb that emerges over the area, prior to the nose of 700 mb acceleration from a W direction on it's heels. That's a +d(shear) that is cyclonic in forcing. Probably why the Euro actually closes off a surface PP contour over eastern NE toward evening. From HFD-BED axis ... ( again, honing this 00z Euro look) the 0-3 km winds may kick more S in the boundary layer. It's intriguing, but erhaps a negative is that these wind fields as described above are not appreciably strong. We're talking 925 mb areal wind field averaging 15kts at 12z, maturing to 25kts between 18 and 00z that afternoon. The 700 mb punches in aft of that behavior (..nearing 18z), with an acceleration ranging from 15 to 35kts or so. Nevertheless, suspending columns of air vertically through those mechanics likely folds over the lower level surface vectors. All this above appears to evolve after 12z thru 18z hosted sufficient surface heating. RH at typical ceiling heights are in the 50% range as modeled. Generation of SBCAPE is on going before trigger time... particularly S of the VT/NH borders with Mass. But, that's not intended to mean clouds slammed shutout no go into CNE either... 500 and 300 mb during the morning don't suggest much of any cloud material at those elevated levels. The moisture loading is in the lower troposphere.