Typhoon Tip

Those fail-safe tech are closed circuited to the craft. There is no line of site - that's the easy "sci fi" there lol. But you're right about the manual control and "fear" factor.

Humanity just doesn't think outside the box enough. OR, they don't think morally responsibly - different gripe. But, it is within capability to outfit all locomotion conveyance means with automated shut down technology. Problem solved... Errant usage to accident prevention and back, from cars to rocket science, anything that demos uncontrolled or aberrant behavior, the stick freezes and in the case like this, the air plane's 'AI' shuts down manual control, takes over, finds the nearest landing facility and brings the fugger home. Tesla's close to succeeding in outfitting self-driving cars.... This wouldn't even take that same degree of complexity -

And it "only" took 20 years this time ... I'm sure we've all heard of the concept of copycat crime. Basically, some innovated deviant afflicts some new fresh hell upon some one or some thing and it catches the envy of the general background deviancy that is far more ubiquitous in society than society really understands.. Eventually, variations on the original deviant's opus start occurring. It was going to be a matter of time before 9/11 Kamikaze's would surface too. Probably would have happened sooner but ... heh, it's just a little harder of hijack air craft

I realize you said, "...One of the," because there are a handful of them out there - just so expectations are properly aligned with signaling. The Euro was approaching a historic D7-10 suggestion last night. It ejects a +20C 850 mb plume through NE during that time span amid a expansive circus tent heat bubble. And it does have at least conceptual backing by its EPS ens. We're losing the sun ...f'n fast now. wow. But I've seen it be 80 in early November from these sort of weird late seen heat release synoptics, ...to mention that happened in February's recently too... so I don't even know why I'm saying this... It can still get pig's bum sultry.

06z NAM blanks just about everyone NE of NYC

Well.. .that's 'potential' I'm not sure about the over ( personally..) The models tend to correct anomalies of this nature downward as they cross into the short range from the mid range. So I'd hit this a bit harder tomorrow if we get the benefit of consistency after having relayed .. That's my take on this. I worded it strongly in discussion write-up, saying the Euro's 6+" juggernaut yesterday was likely over -assessed ( not tough guess there..). But it did come down... This can come further. There is not a lot of mechanical forcing here so it's ....mmm a teeny weensy dubious.

and actually, that kind of belies this thing's potential. There's a pretty massive stripe just west of the SNE eastern end, that's 3 to 4" spanning much of N. PA and eastern NY... It's part of the same structure/synoptics doing this whole thing, so this isn't etched in stone. We could certainly crank that further east within model error climate.

it's only 1.6" or so though - I'm mean not to be a prig but this needs 4 times that haha

It is .. I'm also wondering if the ensemble means being shy of their operational version by a factor of ~ 4 should be a red flag, but this is also D4 at this point ( or less) and the operational runs are typically better in this range. hmm. Maybe this is just that sensitive so it needs a shorter term -

I knew it was just a matter of time before the GGEM tried to lure 'cane enthusiasts in ....

Bring it! ...I really want it. I do. I couldn't give a ratz azz about Labor Day...particularly when it's likely to be utopic through noon on Sunday. Who cares... But 5" of rain would go some corrective distance.

It's kind of a "shot before the shot across the bow" air mass.. But it's interesting how this segues into a week of +15 to +18 (at times) 850 mb thermal layout next week, after Monday's potential shits Which is really a nested anomaly. The larger circulation/super synoptic manifold is very much above normal while the worst of guidance depictions plays out from late Sunday through Tuesday. Speaking of which, jeez, the NAM? That's a Shawshanking. It has that BD mid 50s occasional light rain in a saturated misty gloom look ..rim to rim across Labor Day. I don't know what it is about the NAM - other than the fact that it is a piece of synoptic shit beyond about 10 minutes out in time ... But it somehow physically always manages to manifest the worst of all imaginary scenarios, within a plausibility framework in that time range. No matter what metric one is using it for Cold? it's the warmest model. Warmth? it's the coldest model. Nice weather? deepest boning of all guidance... It's weird. It's like NCEP created a perturbed turd just to like see what if ... ya know. Hell ..it could be right. If that high moving through Quebec is more or less weighty, probably determines if the front hangs up over Brian vs L.I. It seems Brian's screwed either way, which is certainly good... I guess ultimately I don't care. I'd really like to charge my lawn and the surrounding geology with a 2-3" dose at this point. Today through Sunday is fine and a reasonable compromise. Then next week we see if embedded/nested anomaly clears out in time to get one last run in with above normal.

It's a barely a cut-off ... Technically it is, but it cuts one contour - 582 no less. We've been 95 degrees under that non-hydrostatic depth, and here? we're using it to ignite a 2" 24-hr cumulative rain on the EPS? Plus the moving around as you say? I was pretty sure - as we all were ( or should have been) - that the Euro was over-assessing that scenario it had drowned the region in. I still think the whole thing could normalize further. Fwiw ( no much perhaps ...) but the GGEM has scattered nuisance convection dappled throughout the MA/ NE regions, trending south as the high eventually takes over. I think it'll all come down to how that mid level tuck goes on. It doesn't seem to be that there is real S/W material being sunk into that eastern OV, but mainly this is an over-the-top 500 mb ridge that back-calves out the flow and creates more of a weakens there. The Euro does have just enough of an amplitude bias in that D5-7 range ( which that was at the time it Noah'ed the region yesterday) to wonder. Pro: There's likely to be a theta-e pooling scenario from Monday into Tuesday, either way. And a low level flow that is likely to orchestrate into a longish easterly fetch along the BC axis, with tendencies for more of SSE convergence from S of the front. It doesn't take much trigger and where it rains it may need rad mode settings to see the dump.

One of those storms in 2015's bomb February actually was like that... It was almost entirely driven by a flat-wave and a cold high situated N, with east fetch coming into a teens air mass... It looked a lot like that yup. We got about 15 -20" lollypops pan wide out of that...

I mentioned this earlier but it's a sneaking trend... The whole idea of the frontal draping through the region with pooling theta-e and easterly anomalies ...blah blah, is just getting more robust in time. I wonder if we're seeing the over-compensating run phenomenon at this point though??

Oh for that matter ... transition seasons are becoming increasingly blurred anyway. Snowing on Halloween so frequently, and then onward to a fast sheared flow in Jan and Feb that is largely, consistent pattern prohibitive, pretty much means that Autumn begins at the end of September and ends on April 1

Yeah... that frontal drape from NE Pa to CNE by late Sunday and particularly into Monday is being introduced by guidance. The Euro is more discrete with any convective responses, where the GFS is a smeared miasma of QPF... but synoptically, it's all the same really. Anyway, have to see how that evolves over the weekend - it matters for hydro deficits. But a modest polar high scooting E of Ontario in both those guidance between Sun-Tues should suppress that boundary S in time.. Sunday may be 85+ in a quick dose of heat ...then Monday we crackle and down pour in a few lucky locales in between more clouds suppressing warmth. Then end up a for a day or two in a cooler easterly flow despite the 850s still torching overhead, mid week. That's what the synopsis looks like for now... Hot pattern ...cheating to find a way to be normal and may slight below even. Ha. You wouldn't guess it if rip-and-read the charts. These are evidence through the discrete analysis.. .and, are likely to change anyway - just for now.

Wouldn’t ever happen with a system of that nature. It was triple stream phase of extraordinary special dimensions thus integrating a substantial fraction of the to hemispheric power into its ‘machinery’ Think of it like an atmospheric “rogue wave” phenomenon … There’s really no way to bottle up that much raw power into the torsional spatial manifold of cutoff/‘hook and latter’ scenario … Ironically … we’re far in way more likely to bust through stack records off a two stream standard model staller and shoot for the long game/duration. Get 3”/hr rates stalled for 12 hrs then another 12 hrs with meso bursts inside a rotting comma head would shatter records. In CC we’re handing out snow rates like that as though it’s routine … just got to get the storm granted. It’s probably impressive it’s hasn’t happened yet and we’re playing with the odds

You know ... it's not just about, 'they don't come like the use to in the old days' - it's been 30 f'n years since we've had one of those. ... sort of. lol

Dec 1992 ...the very best winter storm in my personal ranking, followed a short 2nd by the Cleveland Superbomb, 1978

PF may get some bangers in a couple of hours. Line of decent boomers racing across upstate NY.

This may be the most utopian syrup air we've drunk in this summer thus far. I'm like ...my god - you just stand there looking around. We've had some beauts but this seems to be exotically soothing for some reason.

Not so much during the day but if you're driving late at night down these two-lane roads around here they can often be seen darting around under the cover of night.

I wonder what the lowest Invest record is ...lol

I've wondered this myself upon occasion, but historically ... I haven't found enough of them that precisely motioned along the Gulf's axis - assuming that would be required. Some were close, but all I've seen happen to cut across it at oblate angles - but even that would cause a TC to decay. The Baja side of Gulf of California has a cordillera that ranges to some 3,xxx terrain heights in the mid-south, to nearly 9,xxx in the north, despite the fact that the widest breadth of the entire Baja ranges no more than 100 miles nearing the U.S. border, to just 50 miles at other points along its extension. The Gulf its self only rangers from 70 to 125 (appr.) On the eastern side of the Gulf, the Mexico ... It may be simply a matter of a TC never having perfectly collocated along the axis of the Gulf, such that it's core is not inhibited by these near by terrain features. TCs come in different sizes, but by the time a TC gets to the latitudes of the mid and upper extension of the Gulf, it would be larger and thus the width of it's physical core is likely a tricky fit. To mention, air is having trouble moving from the outside of the core, to the inner region, due to those terrain blocking on either side. Just a supposition ... but, should a TC enter the mouth of the Gulf and move precisely up the central axis ...while accelerating to a very fast forward motion, it's unclear how much of that would actually make "landfall" at the head waters... but, the miasma of the atmospheric density associated with the transport would probably 'tsunamis' a huge rain event into the lower California/U.S. as it arrived.