Typhoon Tip

Oh..okay - lol.. Just wrote War And Peace describing why we should sell that - but yeah... your version 'bout covered it -

Which run were you looking at - I'm asking 'cause I just did a pocket 'n' pen-protector analysis of the last 4 or 5 cycles of both the Euro and GFS. It seems there are actually two correction aspects going on The first nerdy tedium is that the GFS as of 00z and continuing into the 06z, actually backed off the BD it had pushed to about a EEN-ORH axis, per the earlier 12z run. That earlier run was attempting to end the heat wave from the NE, while pinching it shut from the NW - i.e., both directions. The GFS has a particular fondness for running out and setting up means to end warmth - I might add. ( have a funny private conspiracy that there is an anti CC mole modeler trying to hide it lol -) The 2nd nerdy tedium thereafter is that compared to the Euro ( which also never had a BD for Monday -), even though BD structure is gone by the 06z solutions... it's vastly sped up the entire baroclinic suppression into and ending the ridge influence entirely, by 18z Monday. Granted, "New England" is a large area..it's actually got PF in a cold E strata shrouded summit look by dawn... It's not really a BD by then in the 00z/06z runs... But either way... it ends up vastly cooler by Tuesday. It all looks dubious to me frankly. The baroclinic wall and weak lows and training rains and all that...they parallel the deep layer non-hydrostats, so it's unclear to me how it bodily displaces that entire axis some 300 miles SE of the 12z position .. It just has a bias, albeit subtle, to stretch all horizontals ... Frontal slopes are more oblique and cut too far under ridges - to which a BD would certainly take advantage of that. It also just moves fronts too fast through the flow anyway... owing probably because it also moves S/W too quickly. If you took any D7 chart in winter, and compared it to the Euro, you'll noticed that the heights on the polarward side of the jets are 3 to 6 dm lower in the GFS... That speeds up the flow, necessarily comparing the two...not by a lot, but it doesn't take much in the time-based integral to end up effecting wave mechanics in terms of time and space. These issues begin to first manifest ...oh so delicately, around the 72 to 96 hour time frame. This stuff isn't "every time" or very glaring ...but in a situation like next week .. we're talking about the difference between a saturated cool misty slow moving backside frontal environment, versus one that is offering you guys training correction rains, and us more heat. I'm interested in how that that resolves... because my life has so much profound meaning of course...

They couldn’t verify 99 at BOS. LWM/MHT/BED Musta been a decimal 99er. Lol

actually, that's been on the last several cycle... hm

12z GFS with an impressive BD on Monday... 96-99 NE CT and 72 at BED ... Doesn't last though. Tuesday it's 101 again.

Seems to me as much as we cannot seem to rid the continent of that sagging plaguing trough over SE Canada, we are also consummately having to shallow it out - it's like the models know it is there, but over deepen it beyond D5's. I've noticed the operational Euro has been yo-yoing the amount of sag along the 80W, beyond the break down on Wed...and since the EPS is a largely non-dispersive ens mean it doesn't surprise me that it followed suit on on the 12z cycle. I just wonder if both end up shallowing some again. I mean it's gonna relax - we're not doing 93 to 99 every day ...but, how much -

Otherwise it looks like a handful of 99's tied for the trophy -

BED just kissed 99 if Meso-W isn't rounding weird -

well... okay.. lacking lapse rates has been an interesting recurring aspect this season. That "could" be CC related - I dunno... If the middle troposphere is in some perpetual warm bias with higher non-hydrostats ...

lol, I stared at that trying to figure out if that was some sort of golden metric too -

How did you come by the impression that was a more typical advent ? I'm not so sure, per my own anecdotal life experience ( lol ) that's really true that heat wave's "tend" to end that way. In 2012 there was a big one in the MA but ... 1995/1911/1936 and other big heat waves - in fact I believe I've even read this... - actually tend to ease down over a day or two. Not that this, now, peers with those guys. That actually makes sense though. The total synoptic hemisphere that is needed to construct the magnitude and longevity of those occurrences, don't have typically have frontal triggers ... nor do they have the Derecho checklist going on... That's more where the ridge rim falls into lower heights around the polarward arc - if one is IN the big heat and ridge, they are not IN the Derecho/MCS transit where that instability axis is.

ASH/FIT were lagging but finally popped 95 ... BDL too.

Makes me toss the NAM even further than I did yesterday with those huge DPs ... thing is, I'm not entirely sure it means the same thing tomorrow. There's a boundary dying as it cuts across the area so we should be gathering some kind of theta-e in there. Today though? It's all about never doubt the Euro < 3 days..lol Also, I was told that Marine is nearing historically warm SSTs in the Bite and around the Islands down there. I'm gonna poke around and see if that is true. In the mean times, perhaps ACK mirrors a sultry swim temp?

Manchester NH has it's own private heat geography I've noticed in these long source heat patterns ... WSW coming maybe down slope out of the general range of the Monad chain may help that, I dunno, but if they take the trophy on the day it wouldn't surprise me.

MHT and BED are both 97 ... wow - 100 is feasible at them two NWS sites

It may be more of a SNE deal today... Don't ever question the Euro! heh ... I was just driving up and down Rt 2 at 70 mph doing errands and then again through Ayer down town and two lanes roads and it was 96 or 97 everywhere. Figure it's "really" 94 ... 95 yard temperatures. Beads of sweat with windows down - I refuse to use the A.C. in the house until evening. Uh, we'll see how long I last lol

Yup... as is FIT/BOS... probably everywhere else. We plateaued briefly this morning but I think looking at the wind behavior that may have been a ceiling in the decoupled layer, and now we mix. You'll probably get your 97

Because it's true... The day-light loss(gain) begins acceleration on Aug 10(Feb 10), per the celestial eventuality of Earth's tilt with respect to the ecliptic, when then orbiting the sun. Not trying to be heavy handed ... but, if we are hearing/reading that every year, it's a good sign! It means folks are aware of these changes. Which philosophically ...if we want to remove the folly of human conventions, these solar variance windows should actually distinguish the very beginning of seasonal change. Given time...the atmosphere will response however it responds to the above ..blah blah. Which barring a gravitationally significant force passing through the solar system, is an an otherwise dependably unalterable machinery.

Yup... KFIT too out along rt 2. It was an interesting temp behavior. Appeared to plateau after a 12 point initial bounce - but I just noticed imby at FIT, both locations the breeze become more active right around the time this 2nd spike took place. So that evidence suggests the earlier 'stall' may have been a brief decoupling ceiling.

So I feel we're running out of time. The sun will be slipping from the max into the transitioning solar (-) here in a week. It's a slow process there after ( though accelerating...), obviously. So no, not saying it shuts down 'big heat' chances at 10:34am next Wednesday or anything. But the reality is, an exact same air mass on August 20 does not heat as vastly as it would on July 20, when the only remaining factor to consider is the sun versus. In fact the difference between May 20, June 20, and July 20, is a lower solar variance than the differential between (August 20 - July 20). And it matters for hot weather prospecting... Thus, any 'hot' pattern leaves some on the table as a built in celestial circumstance, moving forward. I think whatever happens today, and then thru about next Tuesday... might be it for this year. I'm seeing the beginnings ( perhaps never left?) in the extended guidance ens systems, to never give up on a NW flow through the middle of the Canada. No sooner does the pattern seems to finally set up zonal up there, the next two cycles collapse right back - that kind of return propensity might signify at 'truer' base-line circulation mode. This sniffs out for me as that leitmotif autumns of recent years ( regardless of all telecon's, land, air, sea or in combinations too), to fold the continental flow over early, triggering a faux winter pattern in early on, resulting in packing pellet virga CU on October 10ths...with synoptic supporting cryo by Halloween... Why do we think it's snowed so often in October over recency ? I mean this is real - causality aside. Anyway, I'm not talking about 'getting snow' by November 1st, just that I am very leery of signals that we may be seeing whatever is causing the autumn oddity, plausibly putting in a reservation early to repeat.

yeah, I was being a facetious with the 'laws' and lazy. I didn't look at jack shit this morning - just the temp rises since dawn, and the memory of the models and the discussion. But okay - that all makes sense. I've often stated myself, heat is the most fragile of all phenomenon for models to try and negotiate successfully from a D8 ...all the way to the morning soundings of the barbecue - not surprising they couldn't verify a +2 SD 850 mb anomaly from D10 ( or whatever the anomaly was..)

If the 10 after 10 has any use on a day like this, ...nope

we did for that first hour ..., but I noticed in the last 1 hr most d(t)'s have ground to a slow change. It's even acting like we've maxed and are bouncing - full sun. +21 at 850 .... Still inside the solar max - though barely... Having trouble - ok. Not making the upper 90s when the temp won't obey the laws of physics. lol

Looks like the 18z Euro took those odd looking giant Friday max Ts down some.

You’re not getting a hurricane this year stop it!