Typhoon Tip

20 … there are people about to graduate from college born after 2004

sorta yeah. There's actually a line up on a 2 to 3 day periodicity. It's not impossible that we're clock punching advisory and/or low end warning scenarios out there. It's very 1994 esque pumping off an ensemble line. It's physically a way to exhaust an energy saturated hemisphere when the flow is too fast for big dawgs. We could also get screwed by one or two missing, but there's 4 in the pipe line to consider so missing one meh The one the 13th looks the most impressive at the moment (notwithstanding a 6-8" 9th) but there's another on the 11th that may slip S before, and then another that showing up out between the 15-17th. 6th, 9th, 11th, 13th and 16th ... Kind of unusual but like we said, we're not talking systems so big that it makes it unrealistic to turn it over quickly. Fun pattern for winter enthusiasts... Ha, we pass out of the solar minimum on the 8th too LOL

NAM QPF is now under .25" liq eq at Logan. If that fugger coups that's be a hoot

At 10:1 snow ratio. .1" liq = 1 inch of snow. SO, that's 7 or 8" above. just sayn' Extending that 10 to 12 would require 15:1, then combining that with compaction after the first couple of inches ... it's probably not making a foot.

Yeah I'd try to tone down the intensity of your d-drips if/when taking this thing to the next level. There's plenty of reasons why that run might be 20 or so % too much. I'm still in the 6-8" camp for now.

Euro looks initially like it'll be S of prior, how much so notwithstanding

13th keeps popping up... this GFS run is a foot of snow. It would be because this one is not a straight shot from the west along a narrow inclusion field, it's coming up the coast as a quasi Miller A - but by virtue of source ( most importantly ...) has a pig ton of PWAT to lop over the polar air mass ...

I thought the GGEM and GFS were close to identical ... It's pretty awesome from outside looking in on this thing, considering the last 10 years of everything under the sun in this maddening field and engagement ... to ever have two models in such tightly coupled appeal at still 4 days lead time. We'll see what a crank-in-butt model Euro has to say here shortly. But the GGEM/GFS either in blend or alone look like 6-8" entry into winter storm headline club

12z NAM has a really warm layer at 800 mb now over Logan that previous solutions did not have 30020969563 08014 151317 42999500 36022982927 -2109 050303 49010207 42000962729 06211 042417 46000204 +7 C seems bit much... but if that happens and there's only .2" liq up to that point, Boston proper would net gain probably 0.0 out of this piddling piece of shit event. On a general note, this was never more than a 2-4 or 3-5er - it's in the bold writing at the thread onset. But there's more to it than just that. This event has sneakily attneuated by 15 to 20% of amplitude compared to when it was in the longer mid range. We been over this a hundred times over the last 10 years, the models tend to magnify amplitude and then correct down some as the come into nearer terms - perhaps this is just that taking place. It's taking a low impact scenario and injuring it more, though.

Fwiw, that actually doesn't look that bad for me ... I see "probability for >- 12" spanning two weeks of time on this product? Cumulatively, we seem likely to receive at least 3" a pop from 4 pretty easily identifiable events in both guidance and method. I guess capping at 70% might be a conservative approach, too.

Yeah agreed .. we're not lingering as a behavior, most likely, in this pattern for any of these over these two weeks. They're screwing right along, in and out apace. When they're done, 2 hours later its clearing probably... The region already having special statements being written for the next in what is interestingly an oddly stable guidance thing going on... 6th ... 9th ... maybe 12th and then the 14th, they're all in play, having ( rather ironically ... ) dependable continuity for actually happening across all the guidance envelopes. Doing so considering the compression/fast flow, when it is more typical to have modeling errors and a systems depicted on one cycle then shuffle in space and time ( and amplitude) on the next. The last 4 days it's been about setting coffee down and checking in on any one of those in the series to see how they are doing. interesting -

agreed on QPF... I might even go 5-8" but that's a like a run-of-the-mill warning event either way. If the max amount is 7 or 9 ... meh. As far as the 'region wide' - that depends. There are challenges as to the areal extend in these compressed fields. Those constraints can be overcome, but then the low residence time is also a limitation because if the given system is strong enough to extend farther out in radial coverage ... the outer reaches are both less QPF but moving fast - threading the needles are squeeze gigs is what it comes down two.

Having said that ... one of these events may over-achieve a little over this 10 days to two weeks. Yeah, sure .. But some of these products look hefty for QPF given a pancaked compression of jet fields moving so fast for this guy

Overnighties look like a low end warning event ... I like a either a 60/40 or almost 50/50 blend of the 00z GEFs with the 00Z EPS The operational versions don't actually vary hugely - but two aspects about monitoring guidance... it is both easy to be 'overly' discrete about minute difference as though they mean more than they do (heh, call it lens biasing ), but also, some of that is still needed in a needle pattern. So how much. I feel the 00z oper. Euro was too far N in the cold air so bumping that south looks like a GEFS/EPS blend

Haven't looked at particulars but I would guess the GEFs could be too based on that climo track - even if they aren't printing that out, it's an easy modulation

Yup

These situations where it snowing at sea 20 or 30 or so mile SE of CC while it's pinging and going to zr in ALB, and still snowing moderately in HFD, tend to foster a "tuck" slosh back. That set up is more correlated to the fact that it is quite cold ahead and thus there is a lot of low level mass --> to meso forcing. The models are already coherently depicting a closing beta low down over SE mass about 2/3rds of the way thru this, and when that happens, a cold surge my tumble back S out of S NH. I could see the snow burst going to a freezing drizzle in that cold slosh as the top of the inversion remains saturated. Yeah, the front scours it all away and that's probably unavoidable. But this is a gainer

The EPS has also shifted south. 120 hours is coherently S of the 00z at 132 - which I would think really matters, because this EPS solution is far enough south that given the amount of cold air prior to this one's arrival, this solution is likely a moderate impact snow event "as is" ... and like the comparison between the GEFs mean and the operational GFS, this to is south of it's operational version. interesting

To each his / her own but 3-5" glazed over with zr ... It's more than insignificant. Shear impact to society sort of validates the former notion in my mind. Anyway, this one for the weekend: I find it interesting that the ensemble mean of the GEFs vs the operational GFS are opposit comparing the this event in the foreground. The 6th has routinely had the ens mean NW of the operational guidance... Contrasting, the present ensemble mean is pretty significantly south of the operational - so the modeled circumstance in reversed. It's hard to determine if this is true with the Euro cluster but perhaps to some lesser degree it appears to be so per 00z. In any case, the GEFs move a 1000 mb low S of LI, to between the BM and CC going toward 995 mb - we've ... or I've been comparing the 6th and the 9th as sort of twins but this GEFs behavior does have greater implication, if not hugely so ...some.

probably not worth as much to point out but the 12z ggem looks primarily snow along and N of the pike, with snow in CT/RI for at least some of the front game - an overall colder profile comparing to its 00z run

https://phys.org/news/2025-02-degree-global-triple-area-earth.html

There may be a sense of transient empowerment in the "denialsphere," That's more intuitively expected really, during the weeks...months, or year post the inauguration of this particular administration. It rabble roused among the court yard ignoramus pounding fists to a heaven that is trying to remove them and they they're oblivious. A mistake to deny climate change. You don't get it. You don't. But you know what ... Fermi Paradox explanation really has a cocktail of contributing "Holocaustic methods" ...Being mollycoddled over so many generations, such that the humanity of this post Neutron Era technological empowerment, get the right/entitlement/luxury of flouting advice is a verrrrry dangerous game for humanity. It's most likely, an 'end game.' "Neutron" milestones are those like the harnessing of fire in human pre history, to the steam and eventually internal combustion engine, to Watson&Crick 'double helix', to the General Theory of Relativity, to the splitting of the atom and the Neutron chain reaction that leads probably to a local scaled holocaust if not one involving the whole globe..., to AI and soon QC ... These are truly transformative, increasingly more god-like powers. Human innovation has vastly outpaced any checks and balances - like those that are built into all other species of life on this planet, which are evolutionarily constrained into and thus by their ecological niches. We don't have the intelligence to steward this world for these powers at our disposal, by our own ability to design and command. Human innovation will become one of, if not the, most powerful destructive forces ... ultimately natural disasters to ever befall this planet. Denialism? - it's just another cog in the gears of making sure these d-day clock aspects actually machine our demise. It doesn't matter if you deny. Or people cry. There's too many other things to worry about. You're wasting your time. We are even to listen to you. Because you are not right. You are objectively wrong, and are apparently lacking the intelligence to even begin to get what objective means and why that is. So be it. We are not in the business of suppressing anyone's opinion. We are, however, quite within our rights to completely ignore the lunacy of the obliviously abstinent, self-destructive rabble.

Can we start the 2025 ?

I don't think they, or anyone else for that matter ... ( so I'm alone on this one, what's new haha) are also considering the speed of the system nuance and the fact that it's out-pacing the time it takes to remove a cold boundary layer...

Me old favorite FOUS grid ( NAM) has an impressive .5+" liq equiv in one 6-hrly period, between 48 and 54 hours at Logan, and all temperature sigma levels are -1C ( 980, 900, 800 mb). There may or may not be an elevated warm layer; if not, that's a wall of S with at least an hour or two embedded where approaches S+. Gotta figure west of the city out along say Rt 9 and the Pike out to Springfield would pound for a time given these grid interpretations.