Typhoon Tip

no no. Tomorrow is a$$ ... today is just smells like the a$$, tomorrow ... SNE's collective head is rammed up in the rectum

It's unlikely ... I mean not that you need to be told that. From a telecon perspective the pattern nadirs then, however. The presently evolving -NAO ( west limb) is by then collapsing, as the +PNA renders to an amplified +PNAP maximum. That timing of those particular major mass field indicators is cyclogen correlated. Specific to the deep layer synoptics, it's dubious...with a 983 mb low escaping over the BM and a new 980 mb out of no where popping off back west like that... It is indicative of a weak baroclinic physics in the lower levels, while pure mid level forcing. The thermal setting is marginal ...but marginal ( as in +- 0C at 850) at the end of April doesn't typically cut it. We'd need more substantial anomaly ... say -2 or -3C, and down into the 925 mb levels by that late in the year. The Euro has a bit of curvature bias at that range, too. That is a D7+ Euro cyclogen look to it. Nevertheless, the GEFs and EPS members have some deeper members cluster around the DM to BM give or take some longitude ... That's about it for now. My guess is > 50% odds it won't look like that on the next run.

Get's hot in May... we just have to stick it out the next 10 days

It's completely clear W-S of here now. This type of mid level I've seen many times in the past... it seems to be fragile and related to nocturnal sounding nuances, but the sun tips over the morning horizon and goes to work and it just disappears - the sat loops seems to suggest this is one of those mornings with that stuff. May be a diffused/elevated warm frontal structure entangled in that too...

Yeah, #MeToo ... The April casting couch has hand cuffs when it comes to escaping the influence of BDs That curved pressure pattern bulging in from the E through early tomorrow ( ahead of the main baro-c axis) probably keeps SE flow in the lowest levels. Game over for warm fronts... The best bet is to be so far on the N-E side of boundary that we clear out from that subsidence. ...Sometimes the exclusion pattern really hits home when you see a clear sky coming in from the wrong direction... haha. Anyway, not sure that's even doable. I think today is an interior gem and then folks should plan on a bit of 'rhea for several days. I am noticing though that the models are attempting alleviation from the drear on the 00z solution spread. It's mostly in the deterministic solutions, tho.. The Euro and GGEM were actually improved over prior runs for D7-10. Hopefully that has legs.

Hi everyone ... ...I'm interesting in establishing an ongoing discussion, ranging from disciplined research to general aspects involving environment. It could/would encompass the total manifold that exists under the general rubric of "anthropomorphic pollution" . This is a weather -based social media platform, so it may not be entirely appropriate in the strictest sense ... However, merely starting the thread in Off-Topic lounge probably doesn't get noticed? Aside, OT is really evolved to be purposed for other uses - to put in kindly ... There's not much purpose in attempting much there. It is not entirely disconnected. Atmospheric aerosols that contribute to soil acidification - as just one example ... - are also connected to climate due to atmospheric microphysics and radiation budgeting... etc.

Of the two … the GFS last 2 runs are worse imo.

sometimes these kind of back of the igloo patterns in spring end up a little less repugnant as the models paint. in theory, the hemisphere is trying to lose winter ... but we're saddled with a -NAO in the guidance, one that takes several days to retrograde fully... during that time, if we don't fully 'rhea, we're dealing with that annoying spring chill shit most likely. then, afterward, the models 'think' that's it - the pattern stays that way to oblivion without any block or real wave signature making that happen. i suspect that's all false out there beyond D 10 or 12, and we'll probably see some modulation start to emerge at some point in future guidance.

Ode to spring's anus ...

https://phys.org/news/2023-04-devastating-greenland-antarctic-ice-sheets.html

Machine numbers seem a bit blunted for tomorrow. 67 at FIT under full sun, with all of 8 kts of near variable breeze and +6 ave between 925 and 850mb... Should be about 75 there.

Folks may want to try and enjoy these next two days of sun ...with at least relative warmth today, more so tomorrow, yup. 'cause after that, you're muzzles are strapped to the April shit stuffing machine for the next 10 days. We may actually get chilly and drab as the 850 mb temps are rising later Friday with that pressure pattern. GGEM's buckin' for a blue baby out there in the last week of the month. And frankly, Euro and GFS merely miss a cold pocket timed with an overall 500 mb evolution that would, too, if not for chance. Unlikely to work out ...but the alternative is deeply dreary, either way. Not that you or anyone asked, I suspect May is different this year than recent springs tho. The last 4 ( folks may recall ) have been orchard stresser chilly at times, at other times ... weird thermal profiles that are almost hard to explain. Like 534 hydrostatic heights with temps up to 72 F, and high based dessert CB's That was a really weird under the radar climate change thing going on while civility carried on unaware, but won't go there... heh. Anyway, I think there may be another synoptic warm burst out there before any real summer pattern gets established. And doing one of those as we are entering the perennial solar maximum (~May 8) would be a different party than doing so March or early April. Makes sense... '87 April event followed a week layer by 90. LOL. I'd love to see that, tho. I wonder if that's ever happened, that extreme of a wholesale turn around spanning lesser time. It seems big correction happening all over the world with increased frequency.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/asia/asia-heat-records-intl-hnk/index.html

yup... not just modeled though, it was conceptually explained how/why these blocking suppressed jet deals happen after 'synoptic warm bursts' - It's why I'm not particularly grousing or feeling put out by it because I've had a week to psycho babble prepare. That and the incontrovertible fact that this region of planet is empirically the biggest piece of shit place to live ... on the planet, during this time of the year - that should be built into expectation.

Forsythias are doing okay here ... Big maples ( non Norwalk ) buds are bigger than I recall them being comparing recent years. We may actually get maple flowers from them this time - which are wonderfully aromatic, albeit only tingingly so. I mean it doesn't hit you like Lilacs ( say ) but they do cast off of sweet air. ..which unfortunately means a half foot of helicopter seeds in the fall... but it's all good - Lawns and field green-up complete. There are even dandy lions here and there. Must shrubs are opened and yup... even the Oaks buds are looking anxious. Last weeks' 90 F haha... yeah. Just hope these recent operational trends to normalize the 'cold pattern' have legitimacy. It's been bad for recent orchard crops - I believe ? - with recent springs having late blocking ...

It's really interesting. Regardless of pattern, there is a tendency to correct any ( really) late mid and extended range, warmer, the vast majority of observation results - both at the individual consideration, but also in the blended ensemble means as well. Why that is happening? I mean it's not like we can say its just with cold vs warm. It seems to really be a flat rate error normalization of some kind. I don't honestly see that seasons matter, either. I noticed this last summer. It was even more noticeable during winter and so far recently this early to mid spring. The only time that I recall this phenomenon not taking place was the 24 hour super snap back in early February... associated with that arctic dagger. The thing is ...now that it is latter April ...we are only 3 weeks from entering the solar max period of the solar calendar. So now that tendency above gets lost in sun-bust and modulation stuff that happens anyway in spring. The overnight runs are seemed to really respond to seasonal forcing out there D5-13 ... so it seems -

I suppose ... but, 'snow' wasn't what I had in mind, per se In the off chance that recent balm may have swayed any expectations, was a dose of reality. So, yeah ...the reality of spring in New England can sometimes come along with snow. Having a rising PNA with a west oriented NAO blocking might be a good place to start/favorable evolution. However, even within that favorable scaffolding, the odds are really more that cool murk with warm shunting takes place.

Just be patient ...we may go well above normal during the first 10 days of May

Okay... it has been trending more N, tho. I just hate and despise April because of that sort of arrangement in the skies, a time of year that has a propensity to leave us tantalizingly so close by. I mean, I've seen it be 82 F in ALB, where no doubt ... summer's tang piques nostalgia - if only imagined. Yet at that same moment, I turn attention toward the window and gaze into an abysmal 41 F dead calmness of slate gray abandoned air. Secluded really, as the warmth flooded off the Maine coast having avoided SNE altogether. Those end-arounds can happen, really ... On satellite, it looks like being stranding on an island of misfits. Haha There's something eerily symbolic about that, though, that hearkens to 'everyone except you' There's something similar about that feeling of being rejected or left out.

Well ... in any event, for those paying attention to actual weather on a supposed weather-related social media platform lol ... Looks like the models and their ensemble means et al continue with the royal shits pattern to end out the month. This week there is an attempt to return flow/warm surge back N toward mid week. Unfortunately, it keeps stalling right at the geographical doorstop in guidance, as suggested by the surface pressure patterning out there Thur-Sat. ...Hm, despite that the 2-meters of the GGEM and Euro, which are still plugging the mid 70s will make it at least to interior zones, I'm not sure I'd trust that when the cinema through that period clearly demos the boundary is S of SNE. We'll see... Beyond that, the anticipated -NAO ( western limb variant) is overwhelmingly signaled. Not only that...the elevating PNA, while not hugely positive, does correct some 1 and half SD upward... Those two behaviors would argue for a mean nadir in the flow orienting through the OV. ... Over an annoying stretch of unrelenting days (typically when this happens at this time of year). We would set to hoping that if so, all is somehow transient. That last week of the month turning page into May ... wish I had a destination to seek refuge 'cause I'd have that flight booked.

Next warm surge falls short? Models have been consistently bringing a warm boundary to roughly N NJ by late Wed or early Thursday, then slamming it to stop and holding it there for two days, while as many as three Lakes cutters go west of us. Quite annoying

Heh... if there were ever a signal for a late April snow, what I'm looking at would do it. Seasonal change will do everything in its power to make sure it doesn't happen ... leaving only butt bang weather for a week and a half as the residue. But right here right now there are both tangible and intangible suggestions there. I warned this might happen, with a blocking down wind of a warm burst.. There's both historic/statistical precedence, but also Meteorological reasons to look for that. Well boom! There's a bit of irony in the notion that the warm enthusiast's party will likely result in a cold hangover ...ha. Question is, how much so?

Recovered beautifully here in the interior... Lots of 70 to 75s. Actually better than yesterday in the purer sensible because it's not so bleamin hot

Yeah...this warm burst now has to relay down stream. hmm ...I was afraid of this, frankly, that which has not yet formally manifested, but we'll see. It may be out there. It's the 'rebound hemisphere effect' of now needing to dump all that surplus heat, it gets captured by the mid and upper levels while it is ejected down stream off the continent. There is a -NAO correlation ( time lagged ) when these warm masses of atmosphere end up terminating in the higher latitudes. It's a spring thing, because the flow still has structure - albeit in the process of weakening. The Rosby waves and the general large synoptic scaffolding, will respond to massive dosing of heat at higher latitudes. Such that if the Pacific sends a transitive wave function ( complex - it's like 'implied' teleconnection) signal that situates a constructive interference, blocks are prone to happening. The consequence ( so to speak ...) of these synoptic heat bursts in Feb -Aprils, then steals a chunk of mid spring back after the party's over. And if we think it means a late blue bomb, or even a last gasp an winter? No. That is seldom the case. The vast majority of times it ends up just causing 10 days of 'rhea or just annoying CAA with 38 F nights and windy 63 F days that compete with sun going in and out of cloud - the kind of weather that you can't really complain about, yet is aggravatingly belaying the true warm season... That may be worse psychology at times lol. While 'preemptively commiserating' ... there is a shot at some warmth next week. The operational runs have been off and on trying to push a warm boundary back trough on Thursday...

Somewhere around 4 years ago I was riding the Nashua River Bike Trail, a regular haunt workout option to me - seeing as the trail starts here in the center of town and is close to mi casa. It's a 12.5 mile kick out to the end, which starts a 1/2 mil from my driveway, and ends in Nashua, NH. Closer to path entry points along the way, there is more traffic ranging from an occasional young mother with a toddler in carriage, to runners, to those in cycling gear. But once you get a couple miles between points, there are chances to be alone. It was along one of these bucolic voids, where the path escapes much civility and cuts under forest groves and passes open wild flowered fields, whence I came upon my own startling encounter. It's interestingly wild up there. I had been riding that path for years and tend to know the curves and physical setting girding the path on either side. I've seen land tortoises big enough to mistake them a field boulders, to snappers with 20" carapaces that posture as being ready to bite as you give them a wide birth. A bob cat may bound away, and once a (est) 7', 12-point buck Moose stood there dumbfounded staring at me, like as if to say, 'what the f are you doing,' while I was trying to shew its 1200 lbs of mass off the path so I could continue along my workout. Anyway, I came around an all-too familiar bend, and in that instant just before thoughts become internal words, there was confusion at a giant black blob that was never there before. I was going back and forth, but I think there were options for giant rocks in there some where, until my brain immediately connected that it was a bear ... before I even formulated holy shit in my head. I clamp the breaks and tires locked. The skidding sound of the tires draws the bear's attention. It was still perhaps 40 meters ahead of me, with its giant head and beading eyes locked on me. It leaped across the path ... I remember when it was in mid leap, fronts and backs extended, it was roughly the same size as the path width it shadowed beneath. It had zero interest in getting to know me any more than that encounter. Within a flash it had loped its way deeper into the grove along the other side of the path. I gathered m composure and continued along the way.. and not more than a 1/2 mile later ... so pretty much right away by bike-time, there was a young mother with stroller. I warned her, and she did an about face and start moving smartly the other direction.. I mean...this bear was huge, but... hugely terrified -so it seemed. Timid to the timid. Yet later, when describing the encounter to the game warden, who actually called me to ask questions ... I was told that was the sire ( probably..) they were looking for. Because, there were several moms with cubs in region, and unlike the sire, the mothers do not f* around and will not act so timid if you startle them and they have cubs with them at the time. I was told based upon my description that it was probably in the area of a 450 to 500 lber