Typhoon Tip

This poor thread ... It is verifying, as there's a system on the charts now passing inside the mid range. I guess a better verbal approach at the onset ...like don't use "biggie" adjectives might have been tactful but boo hoo. Success! Unfortunately it's only because its cinema up to this point ... failed to deliver drugs to the drug addicts, that there are now pages and pages of what really amounts of plebe-witted rabble. The virtuosity and usefulness to actual weather and analytics are lost in all that vastly more valuable din. Also, I'd remind that although population is sparser, the eastern half of Maine is part of this forum.

Last couple of modeling intervals continue the fight between the EPS/GGEM vs the GEFs. At this point ( seein' as everyone cares lol ) ... I am fully and spiritually done with winter. It's probably a sad homage to climate ...that I ever find myself in that mind space on February 20th. But this kind of obvious seasonal breakdown thing, happening earlier and earlier ... it just is what it is. And now combining that the sun angle is climbing so fast, and how it'd take a delusional nimrod not to see/suspect that the planetary state of aff"airs" will warm up given least excuse imaginable ... the sense of futility is undeniable. Anyway, I'm hoping the EPS isn't off but ...

I realize some of you have kids and life complexities therein that require you work out at that hideous time of day - hats off man... jesus

Tell you what ... remove that bowling ball over the Panhandle of Texas and that large scoped synoptic scenario feeds back on itself and we'll be 85 throughout the S Lakes and N OV ...

You should get a winter/second residence in New Mexico as a chicken farmer

No

Crack the Norway buds by the equinox... I wonder if that'd be a regional record. Not something anyone likely logs

Agreed ... you now full disclosure. I'm also spooked a bit by last year's global heat surge. As far as I'm seeing around the world, that didn't like settle back and prove just a transient weirdness ( so far ...). Maybe that happens, but air, and sea did that? - "everywhere all at once" I'm surprised that doesn't resonate more than I think it really should. We just witnessed a planet ... a whole planet, detonate. Something went on that is still sending theoretical climate craniums scrambling to explain. The implications of which unfortunately can be scary. - oblivious Not trying to conjure up a Michael Bay dystopian theme here ( we can certainly go there, LOL ) Still, I can't help but wonder ... - is the hemisphere like "spring loaded"? As the sun creeps N across the latitudes by day, perhaps we near some threshold ... Suddenly, an unusually fast and furious seasonal recovery flashes over. We did it last March - we just didn't get the Eurasian weird heat over the U.S... China was like 95 F for week around the latitude of D.C. ( I think it was... ). Anyway, I don't think based on the awareness of the growing catalogue of outre global events ... that one should assume a 1990s climate portrait of a terminating winter into a 'bowling season' last hope before green up. That doesn't seem to be supported to put it nicely -

The latter mid range and extended GEFs are completely out of phase with the EPS across the continent. It's pretty obvious those recent GFS runs that walled off the warmth with a denial-enabling mix ptype boundary is just part of an overall tendency to speed the flow along and slip the N/stream into a different R-wave signal --> more confluence... --> eternally winter ... okay. I guess it could. The teleconnector projections (numerical) however, from all three ensemble systems, sides with the EPS. The signal is a warm one for the first week of March. The operational version of it ( and the GGEM by the way...) are less like the GFS' atmospheric Laurentide Ice Sheet facade sitting W-E through our region. Assuming the warm weighty side transpires, does it couch a more exotic warm run? For the record, I conjectured that for "concept awareness," not intending as an actually outlook. Synergistic heat bursts ( which by the way... Saskatchewan and N. Scotland both saw a heat bursts in January, where both registered 70 F ... pretty sick at those latitudes) behave like emergent properties out of noise. The models process atmospheric input in complex geophysical processes, out in time, but synergistic emergence is a by product along the way - similar to chaos/spontaneous materialization. They are present as long as background ... but disappears when it evolves into something else and abandons. I don't have much confidence in either the GEFs vs the EPS/GEPS. Simple logic would lean toward the EPS and GGEPs, considering that even the numerics of the GEFs themselves are warm. But the GEFs has contaminating transient trough modes within that general construct - which can sometimes take place, too. Flip a coin I guess. I'd rather 2012 knocked on the door but heh -

Not sure how people assess model performance ( I suspect by their own entertainment quotient -) but this thing for the 23rd/24th ? the models began corrected toward the synoptic evolution we are seeing by the time this was crossing through the D7 horizon - That's outstanding performance, non-subjectively. These are tools - just in case . It's no different than pining over one's ratchet set every 6 hours. Haha... no seriously... it's that ridiculous. They were never intended for one of these social media "psychotropic" phenomenon - if anyone cares to plumb deeper into this, they should acquaint themselves with "The Social Dilemma," and/or other documentary coverage like the 60 Minutes expose into the premeditated engineering efforts by social media enterprises, a story that broke when engineers with morality and conscious came out about creating an addictive medium. You get through that course work ... you see something similar happening in here - if perhaps inadvertently slipping into the same phenomenon. Folks get caught up in this as a adrenaline and dopamine release... some how, a codependent elation response does take place. We joke about it but it's really actually true.

Right - don’t have to imagine it

man, that looks like a prelude to an ice storm for f's sake

In fact these operational GFS runs aren't even waiting around for that ..they seem to be outpacing these new teleconnector motifs. I think it's pretty squarely Scott's fault -

If we tandem a -NAO with the -PNA, like these immediate last 2 or 3 model cycles have begun doing ( particularly in the GEFs) than kiss the warm up good bye. Oh it'll be milder ... by virtue of the sun alone, but the confluence steps up and that won't allow much warmth N/E of OV

Depends on the setting. The sun really is an offset factor now - much more so than even a week ago. Take a similar afternoon back then, and you wouldn't have that same affect. Today we disk golfed Buffum. When exposed to the wind off the backwater lake the chill made it horrible. Get around the other side of the groves where the sun blazed and wind dropped off, the fake warmth lied its way to 60.

We lost orchard crops, twice - stop dude

what - you guys just invent interpretations based on the moods of the moments. Statistically, Aprils and Mays have had significantly delayed green-ups in the last several years ... because despite whatever early balm flashes occurred, there was growth stunting cold deep into budding season.

Both it and GFS do

Which ... no sooner do we recognize the potential there, the GFS summarily starts engineering ways to defeat it's own signal

Actually … no. If I read that right, it’s incorrect. WV heat capacitance is ~1.9. CO2 is ~.8 but the problem is, when CO2’s heat trapping capacity is added to the atmosphere, it causes the water vapor to increase the evaporation rate, which adds more water vapor mass to the gaseous medium; this accelerates the total heating.

Right … but we’re talking about the weather pattern. yeah temperatures doing whatever. But we should suspect they would have been above normal whether Nino slid underneath them or not tho -

I’m not sure the weather pattern has been very El Niño like tho.

We’re saying 70 but that’s low balling these recent departure events. I can’t speak to “Wiz’s chart” but I stood witness to 79 and 82 in two different Febs since 2016. Two Marches hosted an above 85. I’d also suggest that typical early warm synoptics brings the warmest readings to the Mass NE and SE NH. It is not uncommon within a week of these occurrences of early heat breaking down to observe a robust -NAO

May as well throw May in the hooper with Aprils too

70 F at most climo sites on March 1 and … everywhere else, is between 25 and 30 abv nornal Let’s not belittle the matter. It’s not that common. Doing so as often as it has in the last 10 years is alarming. But these occurrences have couched 80 as well.