Typhoon Tip

below the sniff line

yeah, hoping for the NAMian penchants for being too far NW

Dangerous flood situation ... one whose total circumstance began to materialize way back in June.

Completely out of left field ... I was just talking to a neighbor about autumn's onset and when the colors will arrive. The oldest tree on the block is this small-leaf sugar maple that's like nearly 100 foot with nice symmetric canopy, having a diameter some 70 feet. Huge. It's just ever so slightly tinge-ing on the top edges. Despite that size... a tree guy ( on the property for another issue ) was saying a while ago, 'despite that size ... most trees in the area that are that big are actually not more than 80 or 90 years old - because of ... 1938.' Heh, I always thought that big sucker had to be one of those 250 year old guys. Anyway, when I mentioned 1938, she said "...Took the roof of my house." Guess she inherited it from her grandparents. 'Took the roof off' Hmm so Ayer Massachusetts is something like a 100 miles N of the south shore of SNE, in the heart of the Nashoba Valley, no less. I think the elevation at town hall is all of 220' above sea level. That's pretty cool to think that the wind was capable of peelin' roofs this far away from a landfall some 100 miles a-yonder. An homage [probably] to how fast while most importantly ...still powerful it was when it careened onshore LI, yet still possessing enough power to saw trees in half and impart building/structural major impacts up this way. To me it really underscores the assumption of safety fallacy around here ... Because the "structure" of civility, codependency on multiple facets, is quite apples to oranges comparing 1938 to modernity. It's almost like less development back then, makes the magnitude incomparable - there's vastly more to lose, now. 'Magine a 1938 redux + some amount of CC-attribution quotient ?

Yet we can’t find a river in flood.

Has any seasonal outlook ever ‘cast the winter as much below normal snow fall with temps above normal? seems not but who knows. You wonder if no one has ever gotten that right … yet it characterizes more winters than half in the last 30 years. Lol

https://phys.org/news/2023-09-china-global-merged-surface-temperature.html

Looks like we're waiting on a cyclogen thrust ... kind of like in coastals ( that actually work out for f'n change) in the winter when you get that 6" IB then the lull.Then the storm bombs and the CCB blossoms and if things work out you double the total or even exceed by some. That looks like the NAM trying to pull those mechanics off in a subtropical column. We'll see... but the other guidance did have the sfc low tanking by 6 or so mb as it runs up over the inner Cape

Euro and GFS have swapped places comparing where they were 24 hours ago. Now the GFS ruins Sunday and the Euro suppresses

looks like this event was maybe 30 to 40% over billed by models ? at least imby. I was plannin' on 2.5" and I'm just now at an inch with radar shredded to showers not too far SW and moving this way.

There's been statements if not papers that defamed the usefulness but I'm not sure if it really means it's futile, or if it's just come into contention...etc. I noticed myself years ago, that the recovery "rate" more so than the scalar aspects at any given point along the way, was perhaps a better metric and parlayed favorably. But I haven't been using that/stopped because there's been so much disruption ( winters just behavior errant wrt to traditional leading planetary indicators) over the last decade ... doesn't seem a the 'speckle/white' counts on that coarse image would really be as telling. That all said and just off the top of the head, that seems pretty paltry relative to the Septembers climo from prior -.

When was the bulk of this supposed to happen?

Yeah, yesterday I spent some time outlining what the guidance was more than less ( at the time ) leaning toward, but these runs overnight ... heh. While not completely divorced from the ideas proposed then, they're certainly stressing the relationship... It's probably more sensible that there less continuity, actually, because the flow below the westerlies/polar jet, is really nebular/entropic. We lose the structure, we are open to run-to-run chaos. Still, there may be a something developing ( sub-tropical in nature) near the SE coast... but there's an array of equal chances as to what happens to it. If it fails, a slug of deep PWAT rains may end up coming N anyway. And in either case, unsure it even makes it this far N.

would you feel that way if you knew there was no winter coming behind it ?

You didn't ask for this I'm just commiserating: I'm sensing over the last 10 years or so of this engagement that some of the more dependable rocks of endearment to the winter season are beginning to erode their preferences, too, just as I am. Perhaps around the same rate as Greenland ice post 2000 ... lol. I'm probably being more reflective in that statement actually. I've noticed in me, more and more so I feel a hesitation as the day light shortens. I'm not so sure it's day-light related, though. I've always been sort of 'willing' to sacrifice the sun set by 4:10 because it was tied to a necessity for get exciting winter events to occur. It's always been about the entertainment and experience of winter's fare. The problem is ... the fare's been rained out too many times in the last 10 years. I actually knew or suspected anyway ... 2015's remarkable February was unsustainable. Heh, obviously. But it seems more and more so, we don't sustain 32 with 10:1 snow chances. The wide variations of temperatures, from teens and 20s, to even 60s or 70s in the heart of winter, happens too much to settle into the mystique of winter - it just won't psycho-babble allow it. In short, winters are being ruined. I don't think this is just a simple matter of a "1980s" type regression, either - I lived that decade and don't recall this type of disruptive complexion to the years as they past. Mostly, it just didn't snow around a narrower distributions of temperature. If it rained, then froze... it was like 38 to 18... Not 72 to -10. hahaha. I'm zaggeratin' there of course. My point is, it's hard to get psyched for the dimming daylight, like before, because celestial mechanics and the result of "winter" seem more and more to be uncoupling like the ENSOs people keep trying to use to predict them. Anyway, I wonder if anyone else is just sort of ...getting f'n sick of dealing with it, and now ... we're stuck with losing the day-light and getting short-changed on that investment. I'm not talking about 2015 February - that's some kind of 300-year return rate fluke [probably]. I'm talking about just getting a snow storm.. followed by menial cold. Maybe it softens a little. But then a cold front slips south, refreezes, and we get a ice storm... And, there's a big dawg on the Euro for D8... To soon to blame it on CC, perhaps But this newer version of ..whatever it is we are getting over the last 10 years is, it's been giving me pause.

Nice 2-3” swath right where the worst water deficits are …

GFS … in fact much of the guidance hints at a Bahama Blue pattern.

We’ve had like 20” this summer in my town. nothing

NWS has the heavy rain swathing east of Boston/over the Cape. meh must be old

How much f rain is it gonna take to flood anywhere accept Leominster

I brought this up over in the general September thread ... but, probably should be here. This inverted trough and closing low llv pp off the Georgia coast may be the guidance et al in a primitive detection for a tropical/sub-tropical development. I feel this is a ligit synoptic tendency there, because of the super-synoptic aspects going on across our hemisphere at the time. Namely, the large anticyclone moving through Ontario/Quebec and New England toward the end of the week, would tend to accentuate an easterly return flow into the lower M/A. Additionally, the early week coastal reflection lifting northeast off/thru the region will lay in a decaying frontal boundary down there, which would extending seaward from the coast. So, ...E wind over top W wind. Meanwhile, the entire Basin including this region in question above, may yet remain in a divergence anomaly as prescribed by both persistence and the fact that there do not at this time appear to be any compelling reasons to change that static pattern. Presently CPC's 8+ day hazards has the SE/ M/A regions in a risk for excessive rainfall. We also have a low grade sort of flood risk in our area due to the antecedent "wet season" of summer ( weird...). Less than an organized TC, there's that too.

Did you mean 'homegrown season' starting early? ... possibly. op ed: I've personally noted in autumns spanning the last 12 to 15 years ( not a hard experiment) a tendency for early arousal of the seasonal jet - by this I mean, cold season jet structures. That tendency - I suspect - is currently in play, yet again. The slow moving large anticyclone through Ontario and New England late in the week is a result of jet activation setting up pulsed synoptic confluence - which doesn't happen without the physical exertion of a stronger core of westerlies running by along or about the 50th. All that is "indirectly" relevant to the entire SW Basin climatology. You end up with tendencies of easterly llv wind bursts into Gulf/Floridian waters every time there is a +pp anomaly over NYC. That's sort of the relay in how the hemisphere 'activates home season early'. So being early, the water is still blazing away between Cape Hatteras and Miami. Early season high pressure migrates by to the N, there is your easterly acceleration below the M/A. There may even be a westerly compensating synoptic flow south of a decaying front extending E of Georgia, whilst there's that ongoing weird hemispheric couplet in the divergence of the upper levels between the Date Line and the Atlantic.

I was noticing the NAM's recent runs really don't have much gradient with this thing. The winds at Logan on the FOUS grid are flopping around at 10 kts. Also, the LI's are around -1 at the regional scope. At least for the NAM's sake, this appears to be more a coincidence/artifact than it is a very good analog for a coastal/winter profile. Just an observation.

That might evolve into a tropical system ... That upper air velocity anomalies are still divergent spanning much of the Basin, including that region off the SE coast. Granted ... that means it is based on guidance. But, the operation/model consensus want an over-top high pressure ( sign of the changing season ...), which puts that region initially in a long fetch easterly trade, with still ample OHC and a frontalysis axis, under which there is a light westerly flow... You have cyclonic tendencies under a divergence at high levels, over warm ocean. Not a hard calculus Without that, the GGEM ( also ) would plume a bulk slug of excessive rains. The GFS, while also on the same page with the high pressure, I feel is typically going over board with the activation of the early jet/westerlies, and thus ends up with too much confluence and that creates a suppression error - I mean I'm suspicious of that... Not totally certain it's doing that on these overnight runs but looks a bit like that.

I don’t see any guidance going west - what am I missing