Typhoon Tip

Like I said to Kevin earlier … I don’t have an issue reaching low warning ice … Just the “big ice” d-drip rocks getting off oh boy oh boy should be toned down.

No one is getting 3” of liq equiv

The speed of the storm should keep the ice totals down… Doesn’t seem like people are listening to that. It seems like people are ignoring this statement. Even that product is barely warning ice. Needs to be a half inch if we make it we make it but we’re not talking about a crippling thing

It’ll be colder than the Euro

Completely out of line for this sub-forum to talk politics but this isn't really a political distinction. It's an observation of a stagnation and more apropos to say, deterioration, of both the bulk ethical/moral, as well as functional intelligence, at the scale of whole society. The populace has been exposed. The bulk of the people are literally inept to the point where false media reliance became substantive. And by that ...conned into elevating this kakistocrasy to realization. Neither a healthy sense of right and wrong, nor any 'math' existed enough in their minds to have prevented this. In a way, don't blame them. Blame the circumstantial multi-generational mollycoddling by the relative advantages of Industrialized living - there's no sense of morality to those that consider matters as entitlement and presumption of rights. There is a disconnect from understanding that was earned by sacrifices in the history of the world ... and not innately provided as some kind of given right. They may have hailed from a given political distinction, but no... this wasn't politics. It was idiocy run amok unchecked, and unbalanced, winning, purely by huge numbers that were made to be that way because of that reciprocating effect of diminishing intelligentsia. Remember this. History will remember this era as "The Great Dumbing" ... I interact with rural Massachusetts and Michigan in my own personal experiences; literally lack the objective filters to not be assuaged by the Machiavellian tactics, perpetrated as righteousness, by certain mass media organizations and their network of social media stratagem, which so affectingly reached what was really a socially engineered constituency.

Trend is of monster importance for the weekend... I've been saying all day that this was suspiciously too far W with all these canonical arguments that are valid for this scenario. If there's a trend to go SE at all, it is like "more" important than the typical trend - if that makes any sense ..

not sure "big" ... it would be marginal warning ice amts do to the fast speed of the system. It will also depend how heavy it comes down and just how cold it is too. It's a delicate thing that goes on in the thermal balancing between kinetic energy from falling heavy rain, vs dry DP feed, vs latent heat of phase change. There's a tug of war there. The best accretion rate I've ever seen was a 19 F moderate rain with almost not pellets, which is bizarre and rare for that cold of a temperature to be clean rain. Must have been pretty warm at cloud height... But being the dweeb that I am, I was studying the droplets as they impacted the car windows and there was pretty much zero loss. Every drop froze almost instantly. 6 hours later it was 33 with just plain drizzle and lots of dripping. Ice "storms" need to have the 3 aspects above in a stasis over a longer period... the bigger events are typically 24 hours with another 2 days of intermittent continuance.

that cold tuck was on the 12z run big time... It actually sloshed back enough to ZR for an additional .1 or .2 accretion in the interior NW too

this model has not deviate on that event now for 2 day's worth of cycles.

these dry NAM solutions ... i mean yeah the model generally isn't very intelligent, but just in principle it's like it dances around genius.

Yeah... I only "like" the 20th because as I've been pointing out using a lot of tl;dr's and some time wasting annotations ... the flow is relaxing while entering a +PNA. However, as I've also pointed out... this is not the first time this last 45+ days I've seen the guidance aggregate attempt this lessening compression - but what happens is an insidiously slow adding of gradient in time, such that we're not aware ...we just end up sped up to hell and back in the same quagmire. Back to earth re the 17th ... it's a little frustrating because there are canonical reasons to argue that track being farther S-E... Not even a ton, but just not so enraged like the Euro. I also noticed the 12z GFS is outright modeling a nasty tuck early Monday. I still think we have a lot of low level model error potential from this range, with that warm intrusion - all cynicism and snark aside.

mm no. Not in this context. That was regarding a single model run of the GFS, and I was discussing why those "kind" of looks shouldn't be tossed because of the broader correlations in play. If anything, below is a the primitive attempt to materialize that idea, so it offers support to it. The teleconnectors now, are in aggregate, completely abandoning any cold signaling. It is entirely fair to say that is a first, if perhaps primitive, in deterministic method to demonstrate the matter; within which, that is unfortunately what you don't like. Too bad. If you want to quibble with the notion that nothing is absolute - okay. That's true everywhere in nature at all times, at all scales. But one that is connected to objective reality understands the importance of probability, and how reality is constructed out of very high degrees of to anticipate - it's like one of the things that separates humans from other apes. We're all supposed to remove that native, gift of evolution and faculty of higher order intelligence, because you think the future cannot be presupposed. Not going to happen. EVER.

You talking about the 20th? -it hasn't liked that one yet ... at least not very much. Few members It's a caution flag. The pattern is still better for something like that oper. version to take place. Whether reality opts to actually doing so remains to be seen

No... that should actually read, "Mt Tolland State Asylum"

They held back the dissemination when they noticed a bug in the output that included too much frozen or freezing ptypes in SNE -

Yeah ... and it not just the AO. All the indexes are flagging a warm abrupt end to winter ... This is the agglomerate index mode on Mar 7: +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA Mmm, yeeeeah, that's a pretty quick end. I mean, maybe in another era, imagined or distantly in the past, the behaviors of the total atmosphere would argue for exceptions to the rule that implies - a big warm one. But nowadays ? Folks need to get real about where we are circumstantially at a global scale, and just how enabling this has been over the last 6 or so weeks Here, and Japan ... are the only two places on the entire planet, where civility reigns or doesn't, that has experienced a January that was "cold" relative to climate, and probably extending into these first 10 days of February. Where do folks think this winter would be without that very insular layout above? Experienced hobbyists and mets know why this was the case ( above) and it was related to the NE Pacific dominating the circulation mode during that 45+ days. Oscillating between -EPO cold loading into N/A and/or highly compressed low wave height +PNAs Should this index spread confirm, +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA , out there, doing so in that world above, at a time of year deep into the solar transition, during a La NIna footprint that correlates to warmer than normal springs... during CC... anything else we can pile on? I mean, geez

bump.... just because the pattern relevancy is still in play. But the model complexion out there remains, so far, a lower large scale height gradient +PNA

Here comes Spring a week later ?

Know why the posting frequency drops immediately after a "credible" model solution that looks like that ? Eyes are rollin' back in heads as the needle slips from the finger tips and tumbles to the floor -

So ... relaxation sweeps over the local hemisphere aft of the 17th... "possibly" setting the stage for more small scale wave space interaction and a different kind of storm production.

And that is only partial phase - but ... it's 60 or 70% proficiency combined with "model magnification" aspects ... who cares, enjoy your dose, people HAHA

Purely to help elucidate the idea ...

he just means colder solution ?

That model's actually been undeviating going back several cycles - unfortunately, this particular guidance is remarkably adept at abasing the primary tenet of a operational deterministic weather forecasting: continuity. The negative exposure of that is, it continuously forecasts things that don't actually happen. LOL We'll see

Yeah... I'm ( just in case ) opining about the seasonality we've sufferend and appear to continue to do so. But objectively ... there's plenty of clad conceptual reasons to assume that even the higher resolution model types will be too fast with significant cold air damming. There is an antecedent cold air mass in place, and .. there is a +PP situated N. That means the environment in the lateral sense is coupled already - most likely ...- so, if any lowering pressure and/or frontal tapestry attempts to lift toward that area, mass-conserve immediately generate an ageo wind response; it should negatively feedback on the temperature. I can remember being new to this part of the country, in interior eastern MA back whence dinosaurs roamed ... and so many forecasts for ZR to change to straight rain, with highs in the upper 30s, iced 'till the next dawn. Now, modeling is better, and much better resolution tech exposes the lowest level inhibition to warm intrusion better... However, there is still going to be delays there with a +PP situated N. I would not be surprise at all if even in interior SNE there's stubborn cold sag ...even if it's 32.4. May even cold seclude with WPC's crackerjack sfc analysis placing a warm front north of the region while that is happening. Up there? forget it... But again, the speed of the field and probably that correcting the system toward less ...blah blah, may not make the totality of the thing all that important anyway.