Typhoon Tip

a lot of folks engaged in this sort of social media brand are not so much for enlightenment and advancement of personal understanding/curiosity fulfillment and/or fascination over the topics in play. If they were, there would be a lot more humility in lieu of just rhetorical questions, or out right inquiry, and any statements would be more obviously supposition aimed at eliciting exchanges of ideas. Those that do the former are after something else, most likely about being recognized

nice look above STL-DCA if there's any cold air around

Yep, there are wholesale difference in the ensemble spatial/domain layouts centered on the 23rd itself - just knowing that days leading and fading from then had to produce the following, but here are the GEFs from 06z That right there is a honkin' signal for with a hybrid -EPO/+PNA, also coupled this a deep latitude trough configuration downstream. Within that domain space, that's not an aberrant look. Fits the Rossby counts when considering upstream exit off Asia into the WPO domain, too. etc etc. The 00z version of this wasn't terribly different - just a somewhat lesser amplified version. The GEPs on the other hand looks a little bit less impressive... Although not the worse agreement, either. There is some semblance of nod to the notion of building heights into the EPO region ...which given time, lends to evolving toward the GEF's modes. But the point is, the ensemble means are also 'iffy' agreement. The 00z EPS has an oddly compressed height field across the hemisphere. It's as though it has -AO, with very little or not actual positive geopotential nodes above the PV boundary. - it's a separate discussion but whether the GEP or GEFs are correct aside, I don't believe this particular depiction is very likely to occur.

That's a fascinating all or nothing (warm vs winter) frontal boundary/wave train out there in the extended 06z GFS. It looks like 70's with severe on one side, with mix/snow shots running up the west side, over a span of 200 miles during the week of thanks giggedy. Also, so long as we're cooking hotdogs ... if the model run were to go out another kielbasa couple of days, that last wave would hyper bomb roughly along ATL to ISP

I don't doubt what your saying ... To be honest I alone ( I think ) have this notion that these classical longer term planetary indexes have been too disrupted by CC to be as reliant as before. Been saying this for 15 years actually ... The RONI efforts are a start - but I think there are emergent indexes that are just new frontier, they are like non-linear, and they are there in this era of the CC manifold. They may not be there given another 1.5 deg of holocaust (ha). So some hypothesis, duh. But something else is stealing the dependency/confidence - that's why we've been measuring wondering patterns and the sensible shenanigans that goes with it.

While the Dec nino stuff is what it is, I'm not sure what we are seeing out of that product has much to do with ENSO to be frank. I don't think even the RONI engineers fully grasp how disconnected these ENSO aspects are ... I keep reading the MJO folk stating "El Nino base state" like we're already coupled up and good to go. Are they just punching the f'ing clock? Put it this way, last year we generate an atmospheric river not once, but cyclically pulsing over the course of 40 some days, in a La Nina Meanwhile there's fame taking about how well it was a coupled hemisphere. Okay - but if we're doing demonstratively UNcoupled aspects while we are supposedly coupled during a 3rd year of a historic negative run, what the f are we gonna do with a fledgling El Nino that if anything looks like it's weakening months before the predicted acme. This will be interesting... But I'm not sure a warm December won't just be a coincidental. Last year in October ...I recall a snarky prediction that the winter pattern would only look La Nina like when it happened to be differentiating through the La Nina base pattern climo but ultimately just being en route to some modal state that isn't very La Nina like. That prediction was completely f'n nailed as far I as I'm concerned given that firehose off the midriff Pac latitudes.

fwiw the 12z GEFS and GEPS don't send warm vibes post the 20th.

it's a little bit sensitive as a guidance tool for 'CAG' -related emergence. GGEM used to be this way back in the day ...circa 2002 ( man that seems like yesterday and it was 21 years a-fuggin go).. But I've noticed these latter renditions of the GFS is 'sort of' the same way. The canonical Central American Gyre tends to muscle up in autumns as a normal climate feature, but the models spit TC and or hybrid circulations out of it more sensitively than actually happens. Then some years you get your Opals. I wonder if Sandy was a CAG cane? I think that was a late MDR wave but I'm not sure. So yeah.. for now I'm not really taking that seriously but will still reserve a place at the table in deference to climate.

That's what I'm wondering yeah. Cuz the last few runs didn't have that much -NAO response, but they also didn't have that TC capture, either. Those two are likely connected per this run

Heh... 'magine this? outta left field, everyone's trying to get winter rollin' in and this sneaks up on us?

Cool animation! Wonderfully demos how New England is canonically screwed out of warm air at the end of that cinema, too

Actually, there's a signal in the WPO that precedes the EPO ... by a 3-5 days - albeit modest. It's there. That -d(WPO) --> -d(EPO) --> +PNA along that timeliness is a flag that there's an r-wave pulse moving through the N arc of Pac domain. It may not be a full on AB mode out there, but it's enough to send a cold shot/reload into Canada out past the 15th, nonetheless... We'll see

I was just looking more closely at the EPO and PNA indexes betwixt the 12th and 20th ... There's canonical behavior in a EPO burst followed by +PNA emerging in the Euro ens. 'Reasonably' well matched in the GEFs but less coherent in the PNA aspect. That's usually a more indicative of a real R-wave translation through the NE Pac that across the Conus, as opposed to the more static/standing wave variant ( which tucks the cold and Rockies snow pack improvement) while we swelter east of 100W. Either can manifest down stream of a -EPO burst, but seeing the PNA is encouraging that we don't spend 3-5 days with 70 F speaking in deference to winter enthusiasts, mind you.

https://phys.org/news/2023-11-october-obliterated-temperature-virtually-hottest.html

Yeah... not that anyone bites on that GFS run but it's not just cold. There's a couple of decent wintry risks out there, too.

Yup, Kevin's favorite pattern - wholly unremarkable in any dimension.

Great - a winter with a built in can kick requirement

Models seem to be having trouble really committing to the extent of that warm up in that period. I'm a little skeptical myself ... I mean the period favors milder than normal. That's based upon pattern recognition/trend alone. But the other indicators are not that impressive for pushing anomalies very high. That 'might' be why the operational solutions are keeping the ridge kind of flat, and have our 850 mbs < than +10C We could also end up getting that typical New England exclusion synoptics. Enough NW deeper layer flow tendencies to shunt the ballast of warmth from getting NE of NYC. Mild...but sort of cooler relative to the pattern at first glance. Just some thoughts. I mean if the telecon numerical stuff improves and the operationals raise height more in concert I'll get confident in an Indian Summer deal

Yup, coldest day so far, both by numbers and sensible appeal. I just like that combination as it sets this hour, 35/21, 22mph gusts

They were here originally...some how some way - You're the puma expert. Just "mewsing" haha

probably not done with this 65-70 thing

Some day a pregnant cougar will migrate like that male did ... and at the same time, some male will have too. Then the female kittens will grow up and the male will bang 'em and next thing you know, there's a fledgling population.

He should worry about CC screwing up his preconceptions of telecon layouts during winter. With faster flow velocity appearing to be an unavoidable rapture that warps the standard R-wave residences ( size, location and time) Siberian doesn't mean the same thing as it did the 1990s.

Euro's 12z run buckin' for historic -PNA D7-12

finally some better news ... https://phys.org/news/2023-10-early-earth-breaching-key-threshold.html