Typhoon Tip

Y’all can be rest assured you’re getting something that week because I’m traveling ..

I'm hoping for friggy Dec with snow bombs through Jan 15 ...then a never ending thaw that's seamless into an early spring just to stuff crow down the throats of all this El Nino bologna

GEFS really have a spectacularly low AAM flow structure. I mean if that's all there was you'd be convinced of a major somewhere along or east of 90W

It's not so easy to tell what phase space that Saturday cyclone occupies. I guess "hybrid" really works the best but it seems like a Miller A with a convective feedback low - it just happens to be collocated with where the low should be anyway. weird

This is fun eye-candy the following week

I rather like the 12z GFS oper. trend re TG week... That latter event is very near to being serious phase contender. As far as cold and getting snow ... we've had some snows in Oct and Novs since 2000, enough so that people might be conditioned to think it's not hard and we're somehow getting screwed if it doesn't work out. Or not - But from my chair I'm not 'looking forward' to jack shit prior to about Dec 10 (give or take) for N of the NYC just the same.

Does anyone have a source/free on the web that gives the weekly IOD... even bi-monthly?

I've been monitoring that myself - the Asian forcing.. I think the idea in the late mids and ext ranges wrt to the operational version(s) is related to that. Namely, we keep seeing the southern streams getting left behind by a progressive/strengthening N/stream across the N arc of the Pac and downstream across Canada. The Asian stuff appears to be overwhelming the popular ideas surrounding an ' El Nino' autumn ( this is not a warm ENSO forcing pattern!) It short, N/stream dominant pattern is emerging in the guidance tenor. I noticed ( case in point) the overnight runs actually went so far as to destructively interfere with cyclogenesis fields in lieu of this dominating N/stream complexion/ windy fropas with knuckle aching flow over the mid and high lat continent. There's still stuff going on... but if folks are in this engagement for following fun/substantive events, we really don't want a gradient rich compressed monster N/stream with a -3 standard deviation SPVs rollin' over James Bay, either. The upshot is that "mids and ext ranges" aspect means this can correct, and probably in practical terms ... having cold available in a CC raging boner world may not be a bad thing from this range, anyway. ( Lol). I mean, as we get closer ... I could see these very deep SPVs shallowing some ( de magnification' ) which would transitively encourage more southern stream to run dynamics up underneath.

This is an important point - folks take these longer planetary indexes at face values - not trying to implicate anyone, per se, but just in the general chorus, this tends to take place. Taking not of the idiosyncrasies ... like a bombastically warm western Pac weighting the values one way or the other, may not directly teleconnect to what's going on with the atmospheric circulation mode over Dead Horse Canada.

It's really about 1.5 C just too warm otherwise that's an 8-10" SW flow event even down here. Almost hearkens to 2007 Dec but not quite the same synoptics.

actually wtf ... that was yesterday's run. ha

Christ ...the GFS trying for another one of those 9 F for a f'um high TGs like 5 years ago

Not to be contrarian but personally? I prefer to think of since 2000 ( really -) as the era whence Octobers (really autumns in general ) went rogue. You're not wrong with 'furnace,' but ... in that same era, I've seen something like 1/3 to 1/2 of Octobers host an actual snow-in-air event, too. Granted I'm not elderly, but prior to 2000, snow in October was just about unheard of outside of exceedingly rare scenarios in my ages living in either Michigan or New England. Both warm and cryo(cold) have been featured. It's really been a saga about enhanced variance - wide ranging. Novembers for that matter too -

It's like we live in a climate era where a solid below normal Novie ends in trivial/no snow for most, but a +5 month happened to have to a 20" blue bomb so that month steals the trophy - The 'ironic' climate period along the CC curve

Meanwhile, the Euro suite is leading the charge on an impressive -EPO from mid holiday week to the end of the month. The GEPs and GEFs have it but less coherently. All three were flagging some -EPO to end out the month over previous runs, but this 00z EPS and operational Euro set up a much deeper/climate cold loading pattern than the other two as of last night.

Quite the raging coastal bomb on the 00z GFS's thanks giving ...almost no support from the ensemble mean.

One of my little nerdly things is to take note of the first pond ice. I dunno if that was this morning - and rimming just the shore line with it counts - but seeing as the low was in the mid 20s the previous night, and then all the way down to 18 last night, I'm curious if any of those typical kettle ponds around the region didn't set up around the edges

Living in a valley that routinely collects cold on radiational nights with superb efficiency. You wouldn't think it just by glancing at a surface chart this morning but this setting realized an 18 F low.

Have you noticed that? I was just thinking about this the other day. We haven't had a good synoptic wind cleanse in a while. Typically in the autumn at some point you get a deep one rolling up and around the backside we get one of those pan regional 55 mph CAA wind advisory events. Seems it's been an unusually long while since that's happened.

That high pressure over Greenland is a semi permanent climate feature, particularly at this time of year and through the winter. It’s there because of intense cooling over the entire span of the ice cap. It produces an intense cold air inversion with cold density building - this also induces downward vertical motion over top as well because of divergence in the cold layer which also feeds back and raising surface pressure some

Then … humanity’s in the rear view mirror

Nah ... it's more likely that GFS -type solution is put through the "model magnification lens" at this range, D10+ There's a modest mode transition -related signal with the upstream modulation going on over the E-NE Pac into western N/A toward the end of next week. -EPO burst ( may or may not be very well spatially coherent in the layout, but is there in the numerical equivalencies) then relaying into a -1 to +1 d(PNA). So dumping some kind of Pac energy E of 100 W across the continent between D9 and 13 ( or so), isn't a terrible fit ...However, typically all guidance when first detecting those kind of favorable periods will first blow the charts away with a comet impact bomb. The actual numeric teleconnections would support system of less magnitude, however. So would watch that period for a flatter system of relative import ... rolling up underneath the predecessor D7 front/ frontal wave.

What I think is interesting here is that the MJO is on the doorstop of penetrating out of the RMM for the first time in weeks really, in mid 7 --> 8 ... which is prooobably less indicative of an actual MJO presence more likely the detection grid 'mistaking' R-wave forcing through the Pac domain. It's perhaps an indirect sort of indication that a signal is emerging because its detectable through different channel

GEPs trended colder. Probably an event risk in here, too.

Still looks BN favoring and potentially active, too