Typhoon Tip

I mean that's like purply blue

12z NAM warmer Sunday ... has a T1 temperature of 26C at Logan with SW wind. 25C at ALB and LGA... so it's regional. - depending on sun...that could push 29C in the 2-meter temp out over parking lots and down town streets.

Right... I feel I wrote that science 15 years ago, but I'm sitting here a voiceless contribution ... anyway, I remember you and discussing this 5 or 6 years ago, and you were asking me that very question when I was obsessively diatribe-ing. You asked me if this integration thing would be more noticeable during Nino versus Nina. I dunno. I think just the same way fire was controlled at all corners of the earth, prior to any means to travel the 'how-to' around and inform all tribes.... a lot of these "discoveries" and "theoretics" are probably more simultaneous than those with all the pomp and recognition would ever likely be aware, or reticence to admit LOL. ..did I tell you I was in a fucked up mood today ?

That's why we hope for the Bahama Blue full commitment ... That type of deep layer troposphere is really a quasi or outright Nassau sounding. We end up with a trade-wind sequence of turret showers ... then sun, 83/74 ... perhaps another 2 minute blinding showers before another cleansed blue/sun in between. The Euro was leaning more in this direction early next week, but your right about the weekend in the foreground. It's probably not going to set up by the time we're listening to the boss whose balls we kiss during a droning staff meeting Monday morning ...

I got to be totally honest Ray.. when I see "RONI"? I get hungry for lunch .. maybe add some mushrooms and sausage - I looked that term up. I forgot to go back and understand what and why-for, but cursory eval ... it seemed to be a some quadrature of the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) ... I sort of rolled eyes at that point because I've becoming increasingly aggravated these day ( most likely per normal gestation of subjecting a human being to a soulless material based society, coming to the inevitable nexus with middle age ...) anyway, ..I have an admitted bias that's probably going to take a NINO or NINA mode actually not decoupling so frequently to snap me out of.

I suspect by some mechanical % (reduction in forcing...), the NINO will be less just by virtue of being nested in total planetary warm anomaly. How much... ? golden question. -PDO vs +PDO at least intuitively plays a role. I also suggest the western Pacific general heat source is at least transitively important ( meaning it effects down stream at times with less obviously observable markers in the R-wave. It may materialize/betray its forcing more so by way of 'behavior' over time, rather than scalar looks... ).

Plus what Scott said ... or whatever - The run is too sensitive to minor perturbation triggers because of that, and ends up with close to foot of water along the south coast because it's holding that axis in place like forever. okay - we'll see

Euro run was Bahama Blue set up from ~ 90 hours out to the end of the run. In fact, it actually sets it up ...then weakens it in the latter days but the trough never actually gets through. So the conveyor up the coast weakens but stagnates the air mass in back-a balls

I was actually a little surprised to see the "warm front" still a stationary boundary located 150 mi S of LI, with a unbalanced PP+ situated/draping central New England this morning.... It's gonna be interesting to see if we get warm intrusion during the day over SNE's latitude with these morning obs Trade off is some morning sun. Part in parcel to yesterday's moisture bust ...still correcting -

Lookin' forward to puttin up a 108 ?

Sad. Kinda legit bummed. I was hoping those submariners might be rescued.

I think folks are just responding to the fact that today was considerably proven more optimistic than was purported by either machine or man... Now some question as to the degree of shits tomorrow and Sat ...etc, comes to bear. Right or wrong not withstanding -

I was just wondering that ...the acclimation angle. If skies end up more optimistic Tomorrow and Saturday... those thermals would support 88... Can you 'magine 88/71 ... ho man

word!

the 12z NAM was abysmal

Full sun just N of you. Right about the CT border/Pike and above it's mainly sunny. 74 here

At the Nanjiao weather station in southern Beijing, considered a benchmark for temperatures in the capital, the mercury hit 41.1 degrees Celsius (106 degrees Fahrenheit) at 3:19 pm (0719 GMT) on Thursday, the weather service said in a statement also carried by state broadcaster CCTV. The figure is half a degree higher than the station's previous monthly record of 40.6 C taken in June 1961, and second only to the 41.9 C measured in July 1999, according to weather data. "This station has only hit temperatures exceeding 41 C three times since records began," the weather service said, adding that "baking heat will persist in Beijing for the next two days, with temperatures perhaps reaching 38 C to 39 C". Beijing sets at 39.x latitude... NYC sets at 40.x ... so for all intents and purposes they are essentially located at the same solar incidence below any threshold where it matters. Can you imagine 106 F at NYC ? ..that'd be good for 105 at Manchester NH and at least 59 at Logan

I'm willing to suggest this is one of those 'hidden' sort of attributable aspects of you know what. I'm seeing all kinds of subtle idiosyncrasies like this that you describe above. Usually in the behavior the circulation of the hemisphere. R-wave timing to velocity of baseline flow ... it's immensely complex, yet not very obvious. Only someone that spends/spent a lot of time observing these aspects spanning decades ( gee - who's dorky enough to do that) would "sense" these novel nuances as they are recent phenomenon. To the rest of humanity...oblivious. It's hard to prove - and admittedly, still plausible that these oddities happen in 1950 or 1750 or 2050...etc, of course. But the frequency of these oddities is increasing for a reason. I started noticing that we need(ed) more direct inject of cold into our "storm maintenance" behaviors some 10 years ago, and even posted in here several times prior to the 2015 blockbuster - ha! That February shut me up will to talk about it for some time... But last year I noticed what you are mentioning above, myself, and it hearkens back to those observations I was making years before. If we don't get that feed, we don't seem to cash in as often on marginal events. The "flop" direction biases warm in recent years.

What I find personally interesting is that the last 10 years or so worth of winters have been getting increasingly more gutted out ... Someone made the snark post that these winters have been like November for 5 months - most sarcastic humor comes along with an element of truth Yet, while that has been occurring, the spans of time spent in real "appeal" of summers does seem to get shorter ( ...notwithstanding the subjective opinion/judgement of what the really means). Reducing summer length is a tad counter intuitive when we add the word "warming" to the word "global," isn't it. I was talking with other Mets off line ... most have an evolving impression that there is a kind of smearing at the seasonal margins. Springs and autumns are extending in both directions - seasonal lapsing in both directions. It's sort of like if you project that into the future, there is realized lesser and lesser seasonal variance between the nadir of winter and the apex of summers... and more disruption of what we think of defined transition season in between - whence extremes give the allusion to both occurring. Winters become more tepid with lots of wind. Summers tend to observe more of these tumble over patterns forcing closing lows, at other times, this weird tendency for SE wind persistence into the east coast ... Both shunting continental heat sources in lieu of a quasi trade-wind. Then in the autumns, it's almost like we're seeing an emerging new climate signal for the "November snow storm" ( a rubric for all autumn snow and/or snow synoptics whether it actually does snow within, or not) before the tepid temperature in compression flow, wind-regime of winter. Ah yes ...making America great again

don't feel bad... it may help to know that a region 2 X's the size of Texas, which CT is now a part, will not see sun/ or very little today. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ helps to know we're not alone

not convincing though. heh, what is at this range, but that looks pretty randomly generated (artifact) that's just as likely not really going to be there. of course ... I'm sure we're going to have to make up for MDW at some point - I mean if New England gets two majors holidays in a row with utopic weather, there world is definitely doomed

Not sure about all that but okay - I was just kinda surprised to see a 570 thickness, SW wind at Logan, and 22C in the T1 layer at Logan at 18z on Friday in this NAM run when balancing against all the grousing in here haha. I don't even know what the 12z run looked like - haven't bothered. Anyway, even if there's corrupted sun getting through with that combination of metrics ... 81/70 out in Metrowest of Boston wouldn't be out of the question. That's pretty summery at least on that day. Looks to me glancing at the GFS that a diffused warm front nearing 12z Friday morning then smears/loses identity lifting through the area. By mid day we're in summer.

18 z NAM is downright sultry over interior/eastern SNE Friday afternoon... Close to 17C at 850mb with SW wind, in a 570 dm hydrostatic column. Clouds depending how warm it gets, but it is warm and steamy anyway.

This Euro run ...for that matter, the operational blend going back several runs now is not really even a cool temperature profile for us. The hydrostats exceed 570 during diurnal maxes from D2 to D8 ... It's like in principle all we've done is traded the heat wave look in for a "DP heat wave" ... Just won't reflect in the temperature half of the sensible weather. Obviously though we have more trough aloft compared to the modeling from a week ago but you get what I mean... The trough itself is not deeper the 576 heights - it's possible we've been over purchasing the cool cloudy aspect You can see daily destablization explosions on the Euro run every 18z to 00z during that time span. It's probably 77/72 in between 4"/hr rain rate cores.