Typhoon Tip

There may be some regional expression ...i.e., not uniform, because it's a foliage shit show up my way.

This is actually a good observation ... taking note of these less than obvious nuances in the layout is really where life plays out. Obviously, these observations of tendencies by Halloween do not mean they will persist through Christmas - we know that... But, in the example of the PV axis varying to either side of the pole: the telecon layouts and general numerical representations of the mass field biases et al, do not always reflect those 'giga' motions. And, those kinds of idiosyncrasies are likelier related to why some negative(positive) index modes result in different cold(hot) temperature anomalies, despite seemingly the same. What happened during the 2006-2007 winter is a great example of this. It was during the first 2-weeks of that abomination when the AO crashed almost historically. Spanning the previous 40 days the index had soared to twin towering +4+ SD anomalies lasting 10 days each, couched in a +3 SD weirdness. When it descended, it did so in just a week's time, dropping from +4 SD to almost -2! But, it took another 2 week+ for the cold to find its way over to our side of the hemisphere.

Nah, there's more predictive skill than a 384 chart. I get the sarcasm, but Halloween being balmy mild? That was/is questionable as that range appears(ed) to be on the temporal horizon of a pattern change. To mention also ... 12 days away. First in the foreground, there is higher confidence -EPO burst. Downstream, this drops heights over the western half of the continent - not always, but is the preferred initial response to the -EPO forcing. Heights fall in the west ... wave spacing arguments suggest we raise heights over the east. We see that happening in the ensemble means. It is all a reasonably confident evolution. The question is timing the progression of these events; particularly what happens after the initial -EPO forcing. The natural progression is to collapse - or pulse down - the ridging of the -EPO, and as that happens, the PNAP tends to rise. Perennial North America Pattern (PNAP) is not quite the same as the Pacific North American oscillation (PNA). In situations such as the -EPO burst, the PNA may drop negative, but in terms of relative magnitude, the PNAP drops more than the PNA. Later on, the PNAP rises as the upstream -EPO pulses down, expressed as either flattening flow across the continental mid latitudes, or NW east of 100W or so... This total relay of events brings the cold east - how much or little is idiosyncratic to the exact layout of the PNAP at those times.. Again, timing all that complexity is fools errand - it's more about knowing it will happen, but not really being very knowledgeable about when. These changes can all take place quickly, or slowly. It's a morass. The way things worked out overnight in the runs, the models are attempting to progress through those chapters quicker - in fact, I've noticed this tendency to speed up the hemisphere ..( heh, which began in 2002 but that's another story). Anyway, by the 28th ... 29th of the month, we've already transitioned into the +PNAP, lowered heights N of Lake Superior to Onterio, and are scraping morning windshields along 40 N.

Yeah.. cobbling together a headline there. heh. I've been noticing that we're really just getting narrow diurnal spreads... It's like 47 to 59 type air. Sometimes we'll score a 38 but not frost - granted. I guess it's technically above in the numbers but not so much by experience.

The climate is moving N, there's no question - some people cannot stand when reality and data conflicts with how they were told to think by certain political machinery - But, facts are facts ... That said, I doubt we've displaced Norfolk VA to New York City just yet. Personally? Yeah, I believe it possible to cross thresholds, beyond which, aspects "lurch" all at once - the creeping progress before was like the bulge deformation in an earthen dam before it bursts... Then the water backs up at the next next dike and starts working on the next threshold. And on and on we go, each one being explained by the same machinery ... (I'm being snarky little). But moving the climate band ...what is that, 500 miles? I'd like to rack up a few more years to formulate a bigger data sample. Many of these areas S of Hartford CT ( and in fact ... there's plenty of bitching and moaning going on in New England too -), are working on 4 or 5 years of piece of shitness winter expression. It's also noted.

Ha Ha, NORLAN with rain instead of snow

OH, I don't know if they did. It may just be something about this air mass. I just don't ever recall seeing that particular milky texture like that. I love how the convective elements are hole punching that lower level miasma when looping.

Yeah .. bearing in mind of course, this is just an idea (the 'over compensation'). There'd necessitate an entire scaffolding of geophysical calculations to really build it out or substantiate ... ha! Problem has been all along for me, too many irregularities in the behavior of everything to be certain in what is driving what... Not just in the creche of the warming NINO districts and the coupling (or not) with the immediately OLR/atmosphere, but in how the entire system of the planet, ocean and air, unilaterally heat burst in March and carried on through the summer; well before the El Nino mechanics were really even started. Mmm... I don't care what anyone says - I'm a reasonable scientific thinker, and have been around ( also ) for a lot of years ( date myself haha) That global heat flash causality most likely is obscuring the mechanics of this El Nino - some way, some how. sorry to babble. anyway, - let's suppose there's veracity to the over comp hypothesis ... once correction completes its momentum some kind normalcy of systemic variability returns. But therein is a whole Pandora's box, because the normalcy of variability, is itself, changing due to CC rapidity/acceleration. I guess what I am saying is that we could observe bumps for other reasons and then do what we do as a species ...which is busily start assigning blame everywhere before the facts.

I wonder when it will be said, '...the writing was on the wall ...' with regard to when this El Nino peaked. I've always wondered if the actual global mechanics for this warm ENSO event were being partially confused (assumed to be more) with what is really an "elasticity" in the planetary system. We suppressed, thermally, for 4 years or whatever anomaly that NINA mode unrelentingly carried on ...then, La Nina ends. There's a kind of over compensation in the other direction as the system wholesale got momentum that overshot the real resting point. That overshot casts the allusion of it being a harder right into El Nino, but it was really just about a correction going on. Now, the correction settles off, exposing a more moderately warm ENSO - buried inside a pepperRONI pizza with multiple toppings notwithstanding Anyway, when the dust settles from the (hypothetical) compensation idea, the remains of the "real" El Nino is left exposed as more of a moderate in the relative sense.

I was just gonna comment on that - COD appears to have changed their algorithm. Particularly in the lower levels - I'm not sure that is intended or if that is an artifact of a 'bug' in the rendering, but I kind of like it. If studying the loop of that image, you can clearly tell by behavior that is highlighting the RH fields trapped below some 900 or so mb inversion. Pretty cool ...

The thing that's funny about that ... I keep reading these seasonal outlooks, replete with climate colonoscopies ... and they're so elaborately written with all these charts and graphs and inference that no one at NASA would ever bother with.. .Yet, through all that dizzying intellect, no one ever mentions the fact that the climate bands are actively moving N up the eastern side of North America. I don't sense this is even factored into most I've seen. It seems like people engage in constructing these outlooks to fantasize, or ... create plausibility that offsets/adds something back to whatever the baseline patently shows. I guess the problem is just the same as it is in any form of discussion that utilizes method in mass media. It's selling information ... people popularize people who placate/enable their personal belief systems, wants and dreams. That's more what the author's are after. I'm digressing ( I know) but wow, what a moral scaffolding we've become, huh. Once we became a presentation based artful new agency -built society, very honest news reporting or reality itself, were doomed.

Lol... add that to the list, huh -

I didn't say that right so I deleted it... What I mean was, with increased Ozone that traps heat from planetary wave decay at high altitudes and latitudes. This inject appears to be the source for so-called Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. However, there are just as many intra-seasonal time spans in recorded history/data, where the AO meandered negative(positive) without the advent of a SSW physical exertion. In other words, if other planetary mechanics are at work ... driving a -AO biased season, the inclusion of an SSW should inherently become less identifiable - ie., making no difference. What I think is a better study is whether remove the SSW years from those with higher than normal Ozone residence. Then, of those years ...determine if the AO was negative(positive) for positive vs negative 0zone.

Looks like it could be pretty mild on Nov 1 Maybe a 70 Halloween if it doesn’t pass by then.

Need to apply a lag tho. -EPO peak is positively correlated with the PNA through max … Then, as it collapses the ridge signal merges into the mid latitude as a +PNA, leaving a neutral mode in the EPO. Usually about a 3 to 5 day evolution -EPOs load cold into the west first as an “inside slider” pattern but yeah … that sets the table for the above relay into +PNA—>+PNAP which delivers it east. None of these correlations are one to one though. During ultra amplified scenarios, so called “cross polar“ flow types, the EPO and the PNA have merged into one very large negatively correlated mass field. Other times the -EPO is too transient, and/or some other mode countermands the typical relay or intervenes somehow and you may end up with split flow that remains quasi-stable and persists - they can orient a boundary spanning east with epic temperature gradients on either side … events hosting multi faceted impact types.

I'm looking forward to the warmth it may cast eastward of 100W

It might be an indirect indicator for how well this ENSO phase couples with the mid latitudes…

Looks like we'll dodge the outre October snow this autumn. The mass field/indicators are neutralizing and or reversing sign as we head through the next two weeks. It would be comical if that's when we get the cold pop tart snow shot across the bow, but cross that bridge. I'm not buying the cold wave in a week - or it may happen in a diminished capacity compared to what we are seeing in these operational runs. I don't believe the wholesale amplitude survives model magnification correction as it nears. Some, sure.. but with the telecon trajectory already underway ... In other words, I'm siding with the ensemble mean eof derivatives.

It did that (bold) in a +2.5 SD PNA/-2 SD NAO, too That's an interesting result given these indices have been evolving for 10 days.

Sounds like the last 5 years

It’s probably a great sign that the general pantheon of modeling tech keeps painting +16+ over the Beaufort Sea ?

The summer patterns don’t echo during ensuing winters. The transformation from a quasi entropic summer hemisphere into one with increased(ing) gradient obliterates the ‘fuzzy’ state in lieu of materializing R-waves

Yeah, it's quite reasonable to argue some other phenomenon at work

Yeah, I didn't notice the title until after I posted... haha. Too lazy - Anyway, the issue with aerosols is interesting for me, because the aerosols collapse "might" be related to the industrial lapse that took place over an ~ 18 mo of pandemic arrest. I don't know - supposition there. I'm also wondering what kind of geophysics they employed in the climate models. You'd think they'd have thought to run 'perturbed' variants - kind of like climate model 'ensemble members' - same philosophy. You tweak initial conditions around hypothetical/plausible states to see the possible different outcomes. These are PHD's with visionary talents. W T F on that one. Reduced aerosol model run seems like a no brainer? I'm like c'mon. This particular Sept spike looks like about a 3 standard deviation event. The average distance from the red curve that precedes it, appears close to 1/3 the total distance up that wild ride. I think you get into order of magnitude crisis, though. The amount of force it takes to move a whole planetary atmosphere by 3 SD is something terrifyingly large. Think of it this way... and flea can jump something like 50Xs it's height, because it doesn't weight anything. What the world just did is got an elephant to do the same thing. One of those physical acts has a much more noticeable impact when it returns to earth. The energy budget and restoring capacity might be overwhelmed? It's a struggle to visualize what in god's kinematics would be capable of moving that whole system, that quickly, but that much. I also point out that much of that rise took place prior to the onset of El Nino. In fact, when all oceanic regions in every direction warmed along with the atmosphere, before there was any warm ENSO mechanics were observed. I want that noted and explained. That has always struck me as "whip lash" ...perhaps even elasticity. Almost like conductance suppression was suddenly released, and there was a huge eV release.

It's because we're really a kind of "boundary climate" here in New England. One side is Eastern/Maritime Canada, the other is where we tend to be included by practice ... which is more like a Chicago/Ohio Valley. The latter is dubious though, because there are times when we'll be dominated by either, and that distinctly separate us from whatever shenanigans may have bee persisting in the former. Either can lock in for 90 day pattern foots. And sometimes too, both will be enveloped in same. Also folks need to be sort of polymathic when considering these products; when there is a warm anomaly in New England latitudes that are similar to ORD ( for example), particularly in the summer, that may be more elaborately colorized in New England, because summers are warmer out there. This is naturally vice versa in winters.