Typhoon Tip

Looks like the GEFs are a bit less enthusiastic ... at least they were on the 06z means - heh, might help to check the 12 But either way, two aspects that go against that being very meaningful. Sun slips into medium wattage on Aug 10+ Persistence. That's not the first time I've seen that attempt to fill from the east this summer way yonder range, and we just ended up right back here.

First Autumn cold frontal type of the season's been a recurring feature in recent GFS runs for later next week... I find it fascinating and hugely predictable ( both ... but don't get me started !)

I see... the front has tipped SW up here as a weak BD and the storms here are firing along it draped configuration - you can see the boundary on base reflectivity.

The irony is that we're exploding right now as I type up here in "NE Mass"

this cell up here in NW middlesex co is leaning right aloft, leaving the updraft uncontaminated. Really strong updraft over top with crispy edges...

Yeah... but it just wasn't clear given his word choice -

Not sure why Wiz' thinks this scenario is going be such a high end widespread occurrence of tornadoes hurling bowling ball hail like rocks out of a lawn mower ... particularly when it's being attenuated by a morning band of thread killer light rain poison ...

mm yeah, but we've escaped the solar max by then. The atmosphere seemed ironically preprogrammed to make sure the sun was history before hinting that pattern, one that in June or July would give us a chance to experience the kind of heat that has occurred elsewhere in the world. Ha. Anyway, it'd get hot, but that's setting up during that 'what could have been,' post Aug 10 celestial timing (after the solar max). When the hemisphere attempts to cook up heat waves after Aug 10, it's always falling short of what it could be prior to that ~ date. I've seen it be 96 on Sept 7 before ... but the same pattern on July 1 would be 106... So I guess I'm being idealistic wrt timing.

Hmm. The sun on the skin' is a different kind of therm than ambient kinetic air temperature, though - including the ability to radiate heat away from the skin that is involved in the complex equations of Heat Index. In other words, there may not be a direct way to "combine" sun into the same HI manifold of metrics. Maybe indirectly? sure ...like, infrared adds converted energy, so, that increase in turn increases what needs to radiate away. Then, we have utility over that energy budget and can due the deltas. But alone, sun "heat" on the skin is short wave/infrared radiation. What we feel when we feel hot air is after it has been converted to kinetic temperature (by conduction physics with black body objects..etc). Check this, but I'm pretty sure we feel hot air differently. That's a heat source sink relationship. Hot doesn't bleed off to hot as quickly as it does to cold. So that is detected through biological nerves somehow interacting with conduction with the surrounding air. Basically ...air that is already hot is limiting the heat escaping from our person. There may be some 2ndary infrared responses, if say the gas ( air ) gets so hot that it starts radiating in the infrared at a high enough registry. Anyway, infrared is a measure of electromagnet frequency, which humans can sense within a certain bandwidths... like, infrared, through the visible range of the spectrum. However, it's a different energy state; I'm not sure it can be included into the same (ambient kinetic temperature + saturation) gaining up on the ability of the human body to radiate its own heat away...with out first may converting it to post-conduction heat that is gain, and then adding it.

Brian said T and DP are measured in the sun - not sure he was commenting on the HI derivatives?

what's interesting about that image is that PWM-DCA is probably already 95(mid aug)-100(mid jul), prior to that Venetian plume's arrival from the GL

My present extraordinary boredom led me to display this extraordinary example of Sonoran/SW heat release event on the GFS's farthest extended range ... despite the extraordinary unlikeliness of it happening.

90/70 here ... 90/66 next door at KFIT ...

I'm curious over the nocturnal temperature vs the diurnal maximums in that ownership - globally. Obviously, over the polar circles that may not be as easy to ascertain, but below 70N/S We here in New England have noted over the last 10 to 15 years that we haven't seen the extraordinary afternoon oddities. But our lows have been routinely higher and in fact, much of our own contribution to the global warming dial can be shown there.

Fwiw, we had 100 HIs yesterday for couple hours prior to the arrival of light rain . heh

yeah, jokes aside that's good point there. I'm noticing there's almost no wind today. So that 'one of those days whence' may come down to a ventilation aspect. sure.

It's one of those circumstances whence most home stations are 2-3 F above the NWS utlra precision calibrated perfect setting sites... which leads me at times to question the distinction ( necessity?) between defining the temperature at those, versus over people's driveways or walking down urban streets or over parking lots and shit ... you know, life? Granted, these home sites are not "officially" mandated, but, having personally suffered the vicissitudes of North American 40N climate as many decades as I have, I have a pretty good existentially -based handle on what a hot day feels like. These home sites currently fit that better than the present reading of 84/66 KFIT. Oh, they're 87.8/66 so better 89/71 here

I think the Onion paradied themselves recently - I'll have to check - with a funny ...something about "...Popular satire, Onion, to close citing inability to compete with media reality"

I wouldn't even mind the chain yanking if that bold were not the issue. I don't have a problem with entertainment, shit. But, people think yesterday is a headline heat, then when it really does strike ...they don't have a fair predisposition and obviously -

You probably don't remember this but some 15 years ago ... you and I had a discussion about this phenomenon of weakening along a particular/repeatable axis (geographic). I remember offering the hypothesis at the time ... I'd noticed ( first of all) the same thing. The axis actually exists along a line from NYC-PWM... And it's not a hard wall or anything like that. Obviously the Worcester/1953 event ...or 1987 derecho down Rt 2 up my way ...or pick a severe event, all demonstrate that it's a 'tendency' we're talking about - not a hard stop. So, that said, the hypothesis is that with SW flow BL...even though the CU field generates in streets about 10 or 15 mi N of the south coast, and the air temperature and DP get rich ... (they may even match ALB by the time you get to the Pike), there still seems to be some sort of geophysical sensitivity in play that is ill-defined. It may be that the depth of integrated CAPE between the surface and the top of the BL is still lower than ALB, despite the tarmacs and garden measurements indicating the same T and DP spreads. That may or may not be the cause..? But there is definitely a marine intoxication hang-over to air masses that have spent any time over the Bite Waters/ Long Island Sound, which at times more coherently modulates ( negative) convection when crossing that ~ line above.

There's actually enough severe reports to substantiate the headline, tho. Now ... I'm not dense to the perspective given the way it "behaved" but there was a tor touch down, and enough wind problems sprinkled around the training cells in CT ... Falling limbs killing Darwin candidates still happens whether the vibe succeeds. Lol

It almost looked to me like these cells were severing off from the lower levels/decoupling from the BL and out pacing.

mmm... not a total failure. You got your super cell up there

Summer's back breaks for us at the earliest date in history while the rest of the world is entering an heat driven extinction event - fascinating.

Unimpressive cell moved past to my south ...otherwise, nothing like a high of 90 over a DP of 76 being over cast by anvil and light mosquito rain. So much for the mesos pegging NE Mass... exactly the opposite.