Typhoon Tip

People engaged in this soc med pastime seem to impulse-down-play when they sense someone's exuberance ... LOL. Probably? this is a good thing. Maybe even instinct as a crowd physical means to normalize the group think toward sensibility. You know, stop a rash decision/recourse that takes out the whole tribe.. heh - then again, we have amongst us some sources that really need that because they are known violators of common verbal decency when it comes to porno interpretation of the modeling cinema - Be that as it may, I would be a little concerned in this case that something extraordinary may be be "cooking." Just keep that on the back "burner" as a non-zero possibility. We have in fact gained on this signal's prominence among the multi-method technique, ranging from ens/mass fields, telecons that represent those (numerically), ...operational version both subtle and gross comparisons... etc. All of them, spanning now 4 consecutive day's worth of runs. The confidence is about as maxed out on what it can be against "model climate error" for a D6-10 range. I mentioned this yesterday and it is still the case... this is a candidate for a synergistic heat bomb. One that that by nature of their emergent properties, would be difficult to see coming. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon in a stormy sea. The wave at least needs the stormy sea within which to occur. There is some basic identifiable framework required. Perhaps this not unlike the quantum Non-Markovian effect. It's a theoretic that the future state of a system is based not just on the quantum presentation, but also the quantum memory of the system. Having nodal hot dome that's being left to fester, fed by intense insolation over multiple diurnal cycles ... When we say "high launch pad" that isn't merely figurative, that is suspiciously very alike a system's quantum memory "setting the state", and then the non-linear observation takes place. interesting Sooo... for now, what I suggested yesterday imho is still in place. One, we rely mainly on ensemble means. Part of that ... big signals sometimes deamply as they near - I call this the moon on the horizon effect. When the signal first detects out at the temporal horizon, looms catastrophically large, but then as it rises into clarity...it becomes just an ordinary expectation. This is also somewhat analogous to 'boy cry wolf' modeling... because synergistic events take place in the atmosphere, ...we can't expect to catch them predictively just by making sure that every early modeled detection is looks like one. Two, synergistics really can't be assessed with any "degree" of certitude ( haha), but in recognizing the basic framework.. yeah. The other thing to consider is that it won't be 120 here like the Pacific Northwest. We're still going to be loaded with more atmospheric impurities and other offsets that are normal. But, setting records across back to back diurnal days or something ... We'll know if we dealing with a special case if/when

...Stick to the ensembles means from this range re the more important/obvious heat signal in debate. One day shot on Thursday ahead of shallow fropa, with limited backside CAA support. The, synoptic systemic circulation changes that will surge a ridge after ~ D6..7 That much is higher than climo confidence. Exact amplitude and/or interfering nuance notwithstanding... The 00z ensemble means of all three majors were incrementally improved on the heat signal comparing the prior 12z run, which was also incrementally improved on the previous 00z's means. The trend is clad, and is a spatial representation of what the numerical teleconnection correlate: PNA to -1 SD/-summer EPO/ + fluctuating NAO. The operational runs will vacillate between better and worse correlated synoptics for the next several day's worth of run cycles. Probably mid/late week they start coming to a consensus. Two notes: One, amplitude bias at this range is a real model issue. We've big signals start subtly lowering amplitude as we near enough to know this possibility lurks. Two, somewhat in conflict of that notion, we seem to emerge this heat signal above on top of the solstic, and also, evidenced is S/W/ Sonoran heat release. **This is a candidate for synergistic heat event**, but we won't get a sense for confidence in that from this range. Also, we may see a pattern entrance MCS vulnerability late this week or over the weekend as an early guess/surmise, with rapidly rising heights and a NW geostrophic wind over top WSW transport/differential theta-e advection underneath.

heh. Perhaps but climatologically June is not a hot span anyway believe it or not. it’s more like July 1 to August 10

Actually, it wouldn’t Because mein Trumpf will pardon corporation for their obligatory ownership of the cost, while simultaneously hanging civility to cry and die because they are a blue state - which means that they are guilty of the only violation he sees as a crime: not sucking his narcissistic ego prick

Not like this. I would suggest this particular scenario will come down to amplitude more or less, not whether it happens or not – with regard to temperature is being above normal.

Tough sell/science for now ... ( and I realize you're not asking me directly - ) but, I've surmised it may be related to C02 growth in the atmosphere, exceeding absorption rate/capacity of the oceans. With more C02 left available to store tropospheric heat, that effects heat exchange efficiency in the total atmosphere/ocean coupled model. How? A warmer C02 richer atmosphere increased WV loading, and above some mass, this slows the evaporation rate off the ocean, which physically transports heat away with the evaporating mass... This slows ocean cooling, ...such that heat absorption exceeds heat escaping --> temp goes up. Probably? approaching a critical mass threshold where we all die. Have nice day /// 2023 didn't just happen for shits and giggles. And the ITZ SST band only dropping .6, while the Sub -T SSTs tickle history, means the total region is actually not going down.

The diabolical miscreant dystopian ahole in me would rather it be August 21 ...right about on lolly-pop top of the highest OHC climo available around New England coastal waters, after (say) a Hades summer really cooked the shit to historic SSTs. Hell, I remember once swimming/surfing Narragansett Beach in southern RI and the water temp at the buoy/mouth of the Bay just around the corner was 81 ... Granted, it was more like razor thin 74 out in the Bite water S of L.I. but if you're trying/hoping to conserve as much jesus h christitude of storm momentum as possible, September is already starting to create just that much stabilizing marine boundary layer to steal some greedy wind points away. lol

OH, haha. My bad TT... I thought we were talking about heat.

2011 was the most unceremonious break I can recall. It wasn't a terribly long heat ordeal. ...Took maybe 2 or 3 days, but on that 3rd day my car's dash temperature read 108 F on Rt 9 at 55 mph just west of Framingham, obviously that's owing to sun dumping into a blacktop park down there in that 1 story brick and mortar sprawl. NWS sites were 100 to 101 so ... At noon, DPs were close to 70 with temperatures already 96, then mid afternoon right at about 100 ... the DPs just shrank away. KFIT was left at 100 with a DP of 48... what? Meanwhile, HFD was still something like 101/74. Some sort of a quasi dry line had moved passed and evac'ed it all away. It was still hot as hell but the truly oppressive evening that day ended up down around southern zones and the Tristate region. Even though it was mostly a DP loss, I do think that maybe 2 deg of F potential escaped with it. It seemed so, because when the DP crash happened, temperatures stayed the same. Usually you lose DP in a kinetically charged air mass and you go up a degree or two... I suspect there was a non-descript/ poorly or non-analyzed weak "cool" boundary. Because of these aspects, I've always thought that day in July 2011 left a little on the field and wasn't truly maxed I don't think I saw one cumulous cloud during that transition, either. The next day was bone dry at 83 or something banal

EPS mean's making up for CC credits this spring... It's like what's been missing gets added in one 5 day stint. Under a solstice sun. zomb

It's really like it begins now... From this point on you're gaining a little more summer vibes every day. Front on Thursday is a whisky variety ( severe?) and it's mostly a dry line ...setting stage for a synoptic roll out and the heat arrives.

That one turned out to be more about DP the way I recall... I mean 94 was impressive enough, but we had DPs in the garden sites of Wunder like 82... is was sick. KFIT was 94/76 and that site is a notorious DP hole. I thought legit at the time, because the day it maxed ( 96/78 here) both my living room window AC unit, and my fucking refrigerator ( yes, the kitchen main appliance one...) died. As in throw away... right then and there. I remember scrambling to set up ice chests to store stuff, while of course ... no place had any window units in stock because everyone and their buddy Jack made a run on them. I did find a mom n pop that had a window unit, and also similarly a frig - but the frig is actually too big for this kitchen of mine ( oh wel - ), and the window unit made so much sound it was like a aeronautical test at an emission controls complex... I have mini splits now. Bring it on. But yeah...that one turned out to more HI than actual temperature.

I remember that ... We had a shot at getting clipped by the ongoing historic heat over the Lakes region that day, but that derecho came thru at dawn and processed the heat south. We were forecast to 101 that day, but "only" made 92s in the wake of that beast - I think was Saturday. It was actually weakening quite a bit by the time it was passing through eastern Mass around 7 am or so... We still managed some 55 mph gusts, but nothing like what happened up the Mohawk Trail/Eastern NY/VT... I do recall seeing a rope funnel along dangling down from the outflow wedge tho - that was neat. The evening before, I remember a bank thermometer - back when they used to have those... - with an 89 in down town Maynard Ma, just before it click back to the time, 11:10 pm. I was blown away by that kind of heat that late at night. Seems like I've seen that in urban centers since though. For what it is worth, the 00z Euro some sort of an MCS like you're describing around 180 hrs from now.

Keep in mind .. the ensemble mean will 90 some percent of the time or more be less than an operational version's amplitude - particularly out in time when individual members tray off into processing fantasies. I mean that's just an unavoidable circumstance of arithmetic, where the entire envelope thus contains both bignormous fantasies, but also, very nominal sad dreams hahaha. That is why an EPS mean like this at 200+ hours ... signifies there are not a lot of low members. Anyway, this chart straight up is dead nuts textbook big heat signaling.

i mean look at the eps 00z mean .. . that's a big time signal for 200 hours boys -

Very little support from the GEFs ensemble system wrt the operational run doing that with that big closed summer ending menace. The 00z had it, the 06z diametrically reversed and had big number heat implied ... 12z vacillated all the way back to the 00z run... so big yo-yooing that doesn't conform to the ensembles/telecon is highly suspect as the GFS being the Good For Shit model

GFS at the same time... LOL

here it is out at hour 216 .... that's maximizing. The ridge construct is so rubust it's hard to image a single cloud in the sky open pure sear must be circumstantial underneath this synoptic structure. G-pot heights approaching 600 dm, 12 hours after this interval over NYC-BOS.

Canadian implies potential high heat on this 12z run - definitely moving in a hotter direction, as well. previous run vs this 12z centered on 180 hrs

With all due respect ... where are you seeing constraining factors on T or DP ? It isn't through conventional means, because from operational trends, to teleconnector/mass field correlations and back , the whole methodology has +2 ST DP and +1.5 SD T at this time, which in sensible terms is 91/73 type stuff ...roughly from D7 to 14 - but these time ranges are obviously negotiable. Course, we are talking still a week+ away. If you are constraining things based on seasonal trend to bone warm pattern and verIfy a low-balled result? okay. LOL

it's amazing how this winter hasn't yet really ended specifically for this discrete region of the planet. heh

yup ... euro even manifests a nice mcs signal. only 180 hour out there but who's county. this appears to be on the nose of a 576 to 582 dm SW/W heat release in that run btw

Excessive headline-able heat signal

May have a Harvey deal into Texas in a week

Man what a ball game !