Typhoon Tip

The heat this summer may come to North America

I think denial has a lot of inertia in the system actually… I don’t think fear is really as much of a factor. Fear hasn’t really entered the equation yet because people still cannot directly see or hear or feel or taste or touch climate change. That’s the way the human psyche is designed through the crucible of evolution. It’s designed to respond to things that are directly appealing to these corporeal senses. In that sense the crisis of climate change has no natural advocates… Imho there’s also a sort of collective hush-hush perspective on the morality of it because of the whole ‘not in my lifetime’. What’s the height of self-centered, but be that as it may Between those two, that’s really what’s controlling the inaction.

Look south on this chart between Atlanta GA and Cuba ... 3.5 isohypses through that SE/"Miami rule" region signals light mid level geostrophic wind. Also indicative, heights over Miami all the way down to 576. This is a field wide open to compression. Should the western ridge pop more aft of your clipper there, and trust me, that f'er ends up stem wound on the Del Marva. But...it's likelier the one before or after this window is really dominating the wave spacing, and mishandling on this run ( however amount and what form notwithstanding ) is allowing this one's amplitude as we see it there. Or, sacrifice one or both of the other two. One thing that is pretty clear is that the operational GFS is having trouble orienting the mass fields between 120 W and NS during that window - that's a vague shitty representation of the d(PNA) leading that frame. It's a strong one in the telecon projections - talking a run at +3 SD for shit's sake.

Not sure that's done. Not making a call either way, but wouldn't be surprised if that comes back S in the total/ambient polar boundary ...along which obviously cyclonic transits and so forth. I outlined why several days ago when, the GFS - if you might recall - was in fact depicting a snowier/mix or icier solution down S of the VT/NH borders with MA. The antecedent -EPO that relayed into this +d(PNA) may be mishandled over the open expanse of the Canadian shield. It wouldn't be the first time we've seen Lakes cutting primaries end up getting scrunched E along a stressed field as a correction in the shorter terms - which ... we're still talking over 7 days away. etc etc. But for now as is ... bide time and hopefully the ski industry can at least recover.

The pattern could change and still not snow - ...folks will claim it's moving goal posts or can kicking out of frustration. But that's not what's going on if things break, but don't break toward model drug doses every 6 hours. It seems the elephant in the room is just related to snow in the model art. I've mused in the past, as have others ..., sometimes its apparent that folks could even care less about the storm in question, and more about the cinema in the guidance leading. Modern era of model conveyance by means of graphics on tap has created a kind of virtual escape where rationalism is fleeting. 'Nother discussion for a different type of forum. The storm that's likely to occur between Dec 28 and NYE was signaled using other means some 2 weeks ago. I know. I said so myself. It started that way as many do, since then showing up in the ens and various operational versions, as a result of ... ... A PATTERN CHANGE. That's why it is there. Once the paradigm shift is completed, does it sustain? I don't know, but for winter enthusiasts, we want it to wax and wane. Each time it cycles thru pulsations, there's likely to be a system. Deeper into January ... other's have their seasonal prediction methods and forecasts therefrom, indicating a better winter performance. I think in a classical sense/method background, that's the way I would lean. However, I'm not sure we can be as reliant on those 'institutional philosophies' as we used to. They can fail in any generation; I suspect that's more likely to occur in recent decade and moving forward.

Huge. Yup. I remember pointing that out to one another last month in your winter outlook thread. That said, it hasn't really been the dominant player - that I've seen perhaps yet ( hmm). Although, this last Miller-A was certainly connected to that. It's been in play either way. Matter of amounts. Maybe RONI has something to do with that - it's not a tough intuitive leap there. RONI - reminds me of how Heather Archembaultian statistical science can really be applied everywhere. Her stuff shows how rising PNA proceeds eastern N/A higher scaled precipitation events in simple sense. Firstly, the reason that statistic bears out is because it's all about larger mass fields moving from a quiescent state, forcibly into one where it changes. That destabilizes the system --> storm results. But this logic/observation can be applied too everything in nature, really. It's just that simple. Her thesis there really could have been, "Like everywhere in nature, changing the state of the system triggers a restoring force" I've used this "math" in the past to describe this: when A = B, nothing happens; when A ≠ B shit happens. That's it. It's the H.A. of the cosmos, ha. True though. Movement in any sense, scale or dimension in reality ( perhaps reality its self) only happens because A ≠ B and A is relentlessly trying to equal B. If you want to get into physical terms the universe is attempting to reach a state of entropy and so on... Anyway, ...RONI offsets are about lowering how much A ≠ B . Which is why I wonder how much of the warm Dec is purely ENSO and not just related to the inferno ( apparently) going on, air and sea, at global scales.

yeah yup, that's most likely 'how' that thinking is going - but it's flawed yadda yadda yadda

probably ..sure. But I to be blunt, I haven't seen an actual pattern in the models or verification that is hugely clad warm ENSO - it's almost like we're achieving the climate expectation through a smokescreen of distractions or something. Rumor has it China/Eurasia has been cold recently but I haven't validated. Which is why I wonder/leave the discussion open to some RONIness ( I'm having pizza dunnite. mmm) lol

May I just point out some 'snow logic' here? Assuming folks equate snow with winter: If one's regional climate receives 90% of their annual snow after January 1, how can December = 30% can kicking? - especially when ( I don't think ) there was much of a forecast from any source that actually needed to be delayed during these last 3 weeks. Maybe I'm mistaken but it seems the consensus was pretty robust on that. It may be semantics to say 30% in that context, .. .because it sounds more dramatic and the point is really just an emotional one in the first place. I get it. But ... that can be ameliorated by one's expectations being built for the right reason, and/or not forgetting the right rationale in general along the way. Two aspects: 1, December climo is iffy for snow even as far N as Central NE. Have to get elevation assist/latitude = NNE. That's definitely going to be true as certain changes continue to creep in a subtly force changes that no one is prepared/willing to admit are already happening ( - yes, that back-handedness is intended lol). 2, altho I'm not certain El Nino has been exceptionally well coupled and forcing all this patternization of the hemisphere since mid Novie or whenever, but given how Dec has gone, the evidence is sort of damning. The multi ENSO - linear correlations tend toward milder/rainier Decembers. I think (1+2 + d(n-climate) )/3 = low expectations and if anything ... a remarkably good fit for what has transpired. Even if #2 is really more of a RONI thing than El Nino, ...meh.. luck favors those that put in the work (usually).

It’s called Lithium - standard entry treatment protocol should work well as an effective management tool. Librium also an option.

Well… To be fair “trend” requires more than a single run or two to be established, or determined to be the case.

I just like interesting events. I don't care if snows or not, frankly. I really don't. If it rains, one of those only stop signs sticking out down town events would be preferred. hahaha. If it's mild, I have stuff outdoorsy that I get to keep on with. I am "a little" ( admittedly) concerned that CC is accelerating and making the probability for extended periods of banal weather types go up. Because that kind of palpable change ...prooobably doesn't end well for humanity if it's that apparent. But it's funny ... a discussion seed dropped about CC seems to be worse to a lot of people than the other stuff. Oh well - but see? there is a climate sub-forum.. I don't really bring climate up in here that often, for that reason and record. I may drop a blurb rarely if it is already in play. I do place my content in the sub-forum over there pretty frequently though.

Nah... you're not the victim there. I'm not saying your content is intended for trolling one way or the other - no opinion. It is, unfortunately, an obvious aversion to others. That is the point. There's want and need for a minimal harmony amongst the engagement. Create your own thread. Give it a title ...I don't know, like, "Why there will never be a cold snowy period" - those that venture in do so at own risk.

For nothing else a neat experiment. Here's a prediction ... that thread will be crickets. One or two posts for a week or two and then it won't get much traction. Those that engage in the attempted subversive contrarian content are trying to get "trolling" across without it actually being worded that way - and if they don't have a target, they're not going to be interested in the attempt. I think the solution is simple... you have a block option. The other solution is adult the situation and don't read/and/or ignore them by personal volition. It takes two for trolling, whether on purpose or by mistake, to actually work .

Not buyin' what this 12z Euro op run's sellin' on that thing out there. That's next to statistically unheard of parking a 1040+mb fresh polar high barely 100 mi N of Maine, and still driving a low through central NE. Not only that, as that anticyclone assumes position it will with very high likeliness ... fold cold around the western -NW topography and drill it SW clear to NJ Something tells me just based upon that alone ... that corrects south, en masse, both systemically, but also the lower level features over SNE. How much so who knows but that evolution as it's laying out is unlikely. These cold polar high renditions - however - should be taken seriously, as again ... weak but crucial -EPO relaying into a +PNA with qualitative blocking near 55/110 W, just about physically has to send a cooling lower troposphere through S-SE Canada.

It's likely a subjective popsicle headache session buuuut... it depends on what one means by "looks good" If "good" requires an actual consensus depiction of a stem wound bomb under a multi contoured hornet stinger mid level anomaly, with 850 mb temperatures of -7 and all that. No- If good means "workable" ? yes. It was not workable. As a change, we are heading into a period of workable. To me that's good because it's inherently better than dog shit.

Hahaha .. I like "decisions" way better than the expected "deviations" in that context - kind of gives it a cosmic dildo vibe there. No but if we are looking for confluence? yeah that ridge node up there/quasi block is a form of confluence. It's causing DVM over a large area, so ... a way to "maybe" ( I'm just saying maybe here -- don't wanna get sacked ) think of it is home grown cold. The other aspect is that between the 9th and 17th ( last week...) there was a brief pulse of -EPO. It just wasn't very demonstrative, real nonetheless. If you loop the 850 mb anomalies in the EPS/GEFs, you can see that there has been modest cold injects into the Canadian shield. I suspect there is some chance that as the pattern is changing here over the next week ... guidance may be too conservative with the thermal distribution we are leaving. Once these small but crucial colder mass fields get entangled with the circulation under that ridge node up there, it may correct toward a better layout. I've seen this in the past. So we'll see.

just some thoughts for the general audience: My constituencies from Michigan have had a white Holiday season ( on the average). Both Lake Effect assisted and/or synoptic ... there's been enough cold around. Just not around here. It's not helping that the storm track has been averaging something like Tennessee to Ontario, either. If it were more Tennessee to Miller B, than the total mass-fields of the continent would have had been colder from Ohio to Maine, and we'd have been at least in contention over the last month. Perception is still going to be largely influenced by IMBY. Even in the best efforts to remain objective, the reader senses the author's struggle (ha ha). One has to almost be compassionate to fact that it's kind of hard to smell roses when sitting in a bed of shit. But ... we just have to struggle and realize that it's just been our heads that were stuck inside this circumstantial bag-o crap pattern for the last 3 .. 5 weeks. That's all it was. That said ... there's a pattern modulation going on as we enter the mid range ( not in 4 weeks!) It's not just the ridge nodes and L/W positioning stuff, which is leaned heavily into a +PNA--> +PNAP response, but wrt the flow characteristic too. We are losing some 2 or 3 isohypses ( hgt lines) between the blurred boundary of the HC termination latitudes vs 50-60N. Heights over Miami are < 582 in the ambience prior to wave-related height compression. This manifests in slower moving wave space movements. It manifests in slower geostrophic wind velocities as the jets circuitously wend their way around these slower moving fixtures --> shear is down in general... These observations - in the modeling mind you ... - should they pan out leads to really a different storm type. Just apply, right ? You have slower moving storms with weaker gradients. We also enter increased potential for blocking - in fact, the ridge over Manitoba thing with the REX couplet sliding underneath is quite likely an immediate physical response to the onset of the relaxed circulation mode. So the short take-away is a pattern change. Not getting into who said what and when.

Why not ?

The tech and know how has always been there. Worst case scenario is a species Darwin Award game.

Couldn't agree more. I was telling folks last night that it would really come down to lapse rates with this thing. We have 925 mb layer of piping WCB wind ... Also, having 560+ hydrostates into the area ( models ) in a cross up with that WCB jet was an indicator for mixing potential using that coarser synoptic look.

You definitely evaded my point dude, and launched into this diatribe - I just want people to test their forecast against verification - that was the only point I made. drop it. if your respond along this line it'll be to empty space

I think both longer lead linear correlations with the ENSO, to go along with ... all of it ... was pointed toward a p.o.s. December - so more irony in that if things evolve better as we escape the Holiday it's sort of a "correct extended outlook" - seems that way to me. kind of funny actually

Anyway back to the weather ... that look in the extended (Xmas to Jan 3rd ) isn't really part of the persistence I think - you know ... I'm not sure entirely what people mean by persistence now that I think about it. This pattern we're observing, what are we comparing that to? Either way, that's appears to be an rather new circulation construct/response to +PNA forcing - a mode switch that's been ( ironically!) persistent in the ensemble -derived telecons from all three. We'll see where it goes but that's still my call for a the next winter -like potential ...well, maybe "first" is more like it. But 28th -31st is kind of core days but could shoulder -

I meant that humor in jest and in general. There's a saying around Boston's sports media market: "winning is the best deodorant" I think that essence applies here. Folks just need to hands off the key board and back slowly away, and engage in other pastimes ... until such time as we are regionally at least appearing to 'win again' We just seem to be in an incredible bad batting streak and it's taking it's toll on lucidity and the better form of ranker, both.