Typhoon Tip

That has been a noted/repeating theme spanning many seasons. 2015 hits that successfully, but that appears to be an outlier when objectively considering the numbers, and overall impression, created by the last 20 years. Variances of increasing range at both intra-monthly and even intra-weekly in time scales, has been increasingly characterizing seasons. Regardless of all leading indicators - in other words ... regardless of whether those correlate hot, cold, wet or dry, those haven't mattered. That trend alone, logic says 'don't be as reliant.' Which is the flip side of the same argument, 'how can one rely on correlations (the way previous generations could) when they are based upon a D(climate)/DT ( for assist that means "change of climate" divided by "change in time"). That makes the previous climate less relevant. I guess there's art in how much so - Anyway, I'm saying all this because right now the 'leading indicators' would suggest we perform better winter in February. So... ( using this word twice in a hour) with the leitmotif of excessive changeability, whatever is causing that ( we all know what the f that is -) ... and for that matter... the El Nino is weakened while the PDO continues. I could see this Feb having another one of those seemingly out-of-place balm weeks.

06z Euro may verify, it may not ... But the GFS is still exhibiting transitive influence from a more aggressive arctic/polar branch of the westerlies diving SE through the Maritime region NE of Maine. The previous Euro runs have that jet at less mechanical strength, also positioned crucially some 200 mi NE with the axis. Those differences appear to be almost entirely why the Euro gets it closer on the 00z run; also the storm benefits by moving into an opened up larger development space within which to deepen. The GFS circumstance does not provide as favorable an arena. Basically ... the storm reels to confluence as it nears. It encounters a small development space and the 'transitive' aspect is the shunting S. You have to set both runs side by side at hour 102 or so, and toggle back and forth until your eyes see it - it's very subtle but this thing is medium intensity as the trough wobbles across the continent and then it either runs into a backward exertion wall (GFS). Or, it opens up into a more favorable region of cyclogenesis (Euro) - by circumstance somewhat N. Flip a coin. It's reminding me of that RGEM coup storm a little. Leitmotif this winter is that any snow at all has to be a tedious dental procedure to get the models to admit it. Maybe this time they'll finally be right and we miss... Hey, the thread was capped at mid confidence for a reason. And we did intimate this event could fail, too. But we'll see

Bad idea

Jokes aside … folks should be prepared for the possibility of a heat burst in February.

yeah...and so it goes, let's blow the roof off the top of the charts now struggling to quantize how the physics in the models are eating a steady diet of climate change heat fluxes ... lol I doubt this happens but it sure is cool looking. I like how the atmosphere strikes oil over San Diego

First for me... Never before seen 582 dm heights over WV latitude during the first week of February

That sort of look evolved last month I recall... We were gawking at the blocking indicated - and equally as astonished when it sort of failed to produce. Although we did get the 10-14"er out of that period ...even tough it was pullin' teeth to get the models to admit it was happening until the RGEM schooled the Euro ( zoink)

I know - it's like every index is negative and positive at the same time.

The CFS "toy" model has a very cold look with cyclic S/stream injects through early to mid February.

Lol, the MJO desk is currently suggesting warmer than normal spreading over central and eastern U.S. during early February ... with a potential river event into the west coast. SO basically a -PNA on steroids. That's the correlation of the MJO - they're not predicting that. I'm curious to see how that evolves because the telecon projections suggest differently for N/A

The MJO doesn't force patterns. It offers a constructive interference factorization - which also by that convention goes the other way. But the planetary wave signal is vastly dominant. I've seen respective MJO wave ...even robust ones, not demo/fail correlation on the pattern over N/A often enough. MJO writers down in NCEP often refer to it as either in constructive or destructive interference with x-y-z aspects going on during the forecast periods in question. just sayn'

Haha wondered if anyone else saw that NJ model critter hardly two days later. That would be another 10" for you to PVD to Scott axis while Kevin ....oh so barely misses it with 2" lol

It really is charmed change in the cold air handling. I mean ... prior runs were bullying in a wholesale arctic plunging Ontario jet, which was causing confluence to become overwhelming and suppressing what was already an uninspired wave space/cyclone. Now, not only is the wave space/cyclone stronger, but that fisting N/stream has backed way off, but still there is enough with confluence to supply a fresh cold air source to mix into the top of the circulation. These 12z runs really on whole/blend or whatever, is really the epitome of what enthusiasts would be hoping as a turn around. And the trend may not be done. Said wave space/mechanics are just now nosing onboard in the NW. I mean if that comes in more powerful, and the PNA ridge continues it's correction taller... what does that mean.

yeah... I mean, the impetus there is that we're still sort of shuffling shit around in the guidance. If it were to get instrumental, it would have to be sped up enough to begin interacting with that S/stream a lot sooner ... like by Chicago or don't. That's for starts. There, it's not really interacting with the S/W space, it's acting like a kicker. That feature was there on prior runs ... but now that our system in question is what it is, the former's influence on it becomes more noticeable. I'm also noticing less N/stream arctic jet intrusion as prior runs. That's also helping. We've been dealt two blessings so far on this run. Less of the N/stream obtruding and pushing everything out, which then allows a stronger embedded mechanical system to have fun. I'm just saying that if we could tone it down with that follow up useless piece of shit party crasher, that would also help.

No... that's no where near as bad as a 32.3 F cat paw bomb Total accumulation 0 . 0 0 in white rain

In case anyone's interested in some analytics instead of just rollin' eyes back in head as the drug plunges into vein ... but.. .this shortwave below is probably what starts the 'shunting' east in the Euro and stems the translation into SNE of that NE Pa snow bomb...

Let that be a lesson to y'all. Don't ever doubt the +d(PNA) --> +d(PNAP) ... the latter is always right! haha. Kidding... but trying to see through an index inflection ( referring to sign flipping) ... it's sort of like an 'probability event horizon' Hell... no sense being creative with the verbiage. Synoptics 101, pattern changes are problematic for model performance. I mean it's likely improving over the years as the tech continues to evolve and so forth - but this is substantial PNA loading event and sometimes if the shoe fits...

I think all solutions have a non-standard chance of both more mechanical power/deeper low, and also repositioning NW ... These runs may just be the beginning of sniffing that out. ICON shows you don't know to have it move ideally along the quintessential climate route, because the idiosyncrasy of this system's surrounding synoptic circumstance has a long fetch easterly anomaly blowin' all the way at ALB whilst the low is actually 300 M S of ISP. It moves maybe 150 mi (?) close approach to ACK, but that E wind anomaly and some modest mid level jet support is enough to spread moderate snows clear to almost RUT VT. GGEM has this same exact conceptual aspect going on, just slightly yet SE of the ICON. GFS... hm... thing is, I am singularly impressed with the improvements ( not kidding here) I've noticed with the GFS since this last upgrade; that said, I still detect that of all plausibly faster solutions that are not being physically violated, it tends to hang out with that group. A situation like this is delicate... it needs not have the N/stream rushed into it like a not-so-charming wedding crasher. UKMET is beginning ( perhaps ...) to sniff the NW trend. Haven't seen the Euro but it was a warm zonked solution yesterday at least on one cycle.... I'm noticing that the BL in these other guidance is ticking down as the cycles tick sooner. I don't hold a warm solution against any guidance source, at 120 hours, in this hemispheric circumstance .. While all this is happening, the governing wave mechanics are just now nearing the Washington/Oregon coast. As this relays onboard... should the consolidating around NW/more potency continue... I'm wondering if data assimilation overall are/have been compromising around the pattern change into +d(PNAP). As I was just mentioning to Brooklynwx99 ... these guidance have not really be very representative of this latter aspect. The correction vectoring has always pointed toward more in this situation. Doesn't mean it will happen, just that we should be looking for more.

Not to fall back on the principles of 'bundimentalism' or anything but the ICONic solution "looks" a helluva lot more +d(PNA) --> +d(PNAP) than the these other guidance that can't seem to extend the Pacific changes across the continent - for some reason. The latter could turn out correct but just sayn'. In a canonical sense of a (-) to (+) sign flipping PNA ... those tends to lead to more amplitude than not. interesting solution. Also noticing the GEFs mean trying to re-introduce some spread along the NW ... It's threading needle headaches.

mm, I suggest the 'hang back' aspect is the most vulnerable to being tamped S-E as a correction, owing to the untimely arrival of the N/stream into this whole thing.

It's a good thing I just got done explaining why this has limited amplification space, huh ...well, it can amplify some within itself. What we mean is that the N/stream specifically is a negative interference and won't help in this case.

Yes, that is a good description for how this has evolved over the last few days. 'Lowering amplification space' There's a techy reason for it which would glaze eyes over, ...cause a moment of pause before re-engaging in d-drip withdraw syndrome (haha).. but the simplest way to say it: the N/stream is out of phase with this event/S/stream. It's a bit of a race... At this point, if your a snow enthusiast you don't want the N/stream involved, because it's destructively interfering. It's arriving into the wrong aspects of the S/stream wave space; the manifestation of destructive interference is the 'flattening' we're observing. If the N/stream gets any faster in that arrival, we whiff entirely S. So... long of the short, you take your chances on a marginal gunk polar atmosphere that just flips enough - 00z GFS operational best describes that. Then your arctic boundary arrives and suppresses it all away.

GEFs modestly improved... Also more spread closer to the Islands. fwiw - I just wonder if the operational GFS has the jitters about venturing the PNA across signs

This is still planet Earth, right ?

We’ve been Charlie browned by the N/stream plenty enough in the past. … I could see this inching colder until 36 hrs before go time only to have it roar back N with bad handling of the amount of that influence all along