Typhoon Tip

Yeah, me neither. But we'll see. I'm not trying to be heavy handed, just observations of the runs versus where we are now... The extrapolation and experience, together, sort of pump the breaks. If things change, they change - That said, the D6+ Euro and GGEM were pretty coherently stopping the cold source while elevating the lower troposheric thermal medium.

you know ... this occurs to me more and more as we age further along into climate apocalypse... Does some of the autumn cooling in the hemisphere actually start under these statically stranded cloud fields like this. Weak/weakening sun by day, and the clouds steadily radiate heat away from their tops, and en masse, the air column cools as dew fallout from the bottom, and respiration/evaporation cools from the top. It's like an environmental feed back that given time, cools in the absence of a CAA event. Because 850s are like +10. With full sun, we'd be 73 probably, but we keep getting colder underneath this synoptically decoupled saturated dungeon.

I said my piece earlier. If the over-top high pressure continues to combined with that odd mid level height implosion tendency over the M/A, any warm up in the deterministic runs cannot be trusted. They'll start kicking the can. Which, it may be that said guidance' et al are breaking that large scale scaffolding too fast - 'nother way to look at it. Nope, we're well on our way to the warmest September ever with cold hands during the afternoons

It may persist in NE Mass a bit longer ... I mean you're right by sat, west of there, but there's a pretty persistent NE jet along and off the Maine coast that's moving across those weirdly warmer than normal SSTs, and it's creating OES enhanced strata field. There's always a detail to fu up a solution -

I dunno... I keep seeing these spontaneous when not delivered, 500 mb troughs into the M/A. Meanwhile, there is some kind of semi permanent DVM plumb that has set up over eastern Canada, continuously adding mass to that surface ridging up there. So long as those two circumstances persist, it is going to be hard to completely shake the easterly low level wind source along the entire eastern seaboard. Just the mean of the operational guidance ... maybe 6 that all breaks down

what side of 2015 was the warm ENSO peaking?

Prediction … we breach the 1.5+ for the first time

Unless there’s an unscheduled reversal … it’s happened twice over the last 10 years ( having never before been observed, fwiw). I think they both happened proximal to warm ENSOs

North America did not miss out and I think that’s an important distinction – regarding last December… There are no broad base Tele connections that can pinpoint a region as small as New England. The fact that the historic cyclone wrapped up and went to Buffalo, unfortunately, in the spatial physics, still counts. Sometime you get the bare … sometimes the bear gets you

How far behind climatology did last summer's 3-month negative moisture lag? I'm wondering if the combination of that, plus this summer / 2 = a moisture surplus.

We can wait a day

New NAM has clearing pressing S tomorrow. 18z has RH fields at 300, 500, 700, and 850 mb like that razor's edge look. ALB to PVD and N opens up to sunshine by then. Still overcast SW... I must admit my feel for that is not entirely unselfish. Lol. I mean, I find 0 redeeming value to 55 pitter patter rain for 72 straight hours and counting, after the Equinox when the sun is too weak to defend for itself or us... yuck ... so, forgive my insensitive and tactless rejoicing when/if that sun bursts forth tomorrow along the rt 2 corridor

I'm no Hydrologist, but 35 to 50" of rain in 90 days seems like it should have observed more flood than just these sporadic townships with washed out roads and yard ponds dumping into cellars. I wonder if the region is at a 'hydrostatic balance'? The amount of water coming into the system is evenly matched ...more than less, by the amount leaving. It's like a ton of rain just perfectly balanced right below the threshold of a regional flood concern. I'm not talking about VT's thing, or this recent event in the Leominster area - as impressive and historic as they were, they were related more so to large amounts in shorter duration. Short duration flooding is certainly augmented by preexisting wet conditions, but if the rain rate is sufficiently large it doesn't matter. Leominster and VT would have happened either way. Anyway, not trying to declare anything. This is really thinking out loud. In the end, this is like staging SNE with a primed wick for flooding, and holding it there in perpetuity - like a highly unusual static length of time. Such that we go so long without actually having a more regional flood take place. If this continues into the autumn, then we buck CC with a brick earth winter (say...), that stage might be interesting later next March

Agree ... ... may be personal preference, but I would have worded, "ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating" as ie, the tropical Pacific is not registering a response in the mid latitude circulation modes Yet - but we probably mean the same thing in present context lol

I think this was inconsistently distributed at whole region scale. … I recall a lot of decent weekends up here. I also recall some having thunderstorms or rain episodes. I have had very few total washouts though.. By and large it seem to be pretty much weeks and weekends just were above normal rainfall for any summer.

Keep in mind ... 'the atmosphere has a memory' The idea being an application of Newton's First Law of Motion, which describes inertia in a system as continuing until it is acted upon by forces comparably large enough to alter the preexisting state of inertia. Having a La Nina with at least half the time being in a well coupled state spanning the past 3+ years certainly argues for a preexisting state of inertia ... But there were periods of disruption. The current maturing and/or matured ( not getting into which) El Nino is being described as coupled by multiple agencies, however ... I don't see that as being necessarily true, above and beneath the ~ 30 degree N/S hemispheres. We need to be careful not to presume aspects that aren't "physically triggered" yet. That triggering mechanism is in the process of being turned off ( so to speak) over the southern hemisphere as seasonal warming dilutes the gradient. Conversely - from what I am observing - has yet be to turned on above said latitude. A lot of vagaries in the models with nebular flow structures also observed, is still typical of warm season. The planetary gradient has not established its self yet; its too early in the season. This is most important for just about everyone in the forum that concerns themselves with how the ENSO will (or won't) lend to forcing the subsequent R-wave distribution. Once the trigger formulates, the winter jet will find its way to the most efficient wave mechanics. If that is correlated with ENSO warm... we are coupling 'the hemisphere' ... I wonder if there's some confusion there wrt to what is meant by coupled.

Put it this way you can feel a lot better about Miami’s chances than you can about the Patriots or the Jets… The good game will be when Miami plays Buffalo

Nothing against Miami… But I wouldn’t base that on the competition over the first two games of this year. If they look like that after six games, then we’ll talk.

Pretty solid band of moderate rain along the eastern end of the pike has materialize during the day here

I think I’d rather contend with folks posting snark and grouse by Xmas if things look like shit than to read optimism about why it’s ‘going to turn favorable by Jan 20’ … the first of 8 can kicks that guides us into -NAO April at long last

I have a feeling the NAM’s up to its NW bias. Not sure how the NAM wins against the blocking building down.

abysmal

Looks like we had circulation recapture take place with O

This is great news ... I was hoping to see this content, "...are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.... ...the ONI values over the most recent decade will change slightly because of the inclusion of more recent data." I mean I assumed they weren't idiots. Lol. yeah, cool