Typhoon Tip

Which ... no sooner do we recognize the potential there, the GFS summarily starts engineering ways to defeat it's own signal

Actually … no. If I read that right, it’s incorrect. WV heat capacitance is ~1.9. CO2 is ~.8 but the problem is, when CO2’s heat trapping capacity is added to the atmosphere, it causes the water vapor to increase the evaporation rate, which adds more water vapor mass to the gaseous medium; this accelerates the total heating.

Right … but we’re talking about the weather pattern. yeah temperatures doing whatever. But we should suspect they would have been above normal whether Nino slid underneath them or not tho -

I’m not sure the weather pattern has been very El Niño like tho.

We’re saying 70 but that’s low balling these recent departure events. I can’t speak to “Wiz’s chart” but I stood witness to 79 and 82 in two different Febs since 2016. Two Marches hosted an above 85. I’d also suggest that typical early warm synoptics brings the warmest readings to the Mass NE and SE NH. It is not uncommon within a week of these occurrences of early heat breaking down to observe a robust -NAO

May as well throw May in the hooper with Aprils too

70 F at most climo sites on March 1 and … everywhere else, is between 25 and 30 abv nornal Let’s not belittle the matter. It’s not that common. Doing so as often as it has in the last 10 years is alarming. But these occurrences have couched 80 as well.

Ended late on the 31st with an epic BD 91 was the high t at UML wx lab 9 am on the 1st of apr it was 39

GFS is trying to set the table for a heat burst ... 580 non-hydrostats to NYC fits the telecon distribution leading and during the D10-15 range. Despite the long lead, there are some long leads that are just a wee bit higher confidence than mere noise. There's more to this than just that though - I have it in the back of my mind that these Feb-Mar-Apr bizarre "heat bursts" where temps soared to 80 or higher that early in the year on so many occasions over the past 15 years I've lost count. This is clearly an attribution issue - not going to get into it.. you believe it or you don't. But these extraordinary heat explosions began around the time that all these empirical accelerations in GW became incontrovertible. That's the case for it ... I'm interested in recognizing scenarios that host those events - but quite intuitively, they occur inside warm scaffolding. Having a every telecon there is in or accelerating into a warm mode post the 24th of the month, while operational runs have begun rolling a ridge E of 100W, certainly fits. So we'll see if this manifest in some kind of ( yet again ) absurdly early heat, or if it is just another ordinary warm episode.

I told him there's still a system there? hello - Beyond that ... I'm just being as objective as I can regarding where this system stands as as of 5:30 pm on Saturday February 17 2024. Part of the issue with my own involvement thru yesterday was that I didn't have time to study the full suite of techniques I normally use. I was heads down at work all week... But last night I had a chance and there's some pretty prevalent red flags. I can assure you, I don't sway emotionally with modeling idiosyncrasies - if that's what you mean? To wit, this is not mere nuances to overcome in guidance. There are wholesale manifold changes in the Pacific that should not be ignored if one is either in prediction efforts, or just needs their expectations to be well founded. Do with it what you like. It's up to you.

The Euro still passes at sub 990mb low between ACK and the BM, fwiw. It's just that like yesterday, it doesn't for some reason mechanize appreciable QPF on the western side. Interesting That could be the back ground negative interfering physics of a massive pattern change entering the processing. It's like the Euro's fighting it? What's actually happening is the scaffolding for a storm ( at all ) is rapidly in collapse between the 22nd and 25th. The western limb of the PNA in fact entering a -PNA construct ( robustly so, too ...) with such rapidity that the eastern limb is still vestigially carrying NW flow over Chicago where is the attempted amplification while that is happening. It's a race before a whiplash pattern sweeps the continent. I mean it is right on the heels of this. It kind of reminds me of the March 2014 storm - the one that only hit the Cape. The cold over the eastern Lakes, here and SE Canada, wrapped into it and rolled on up into the Maritime and left spring in it's wake. It was a bitter end to the year to miss the pig storm by 'that' much, only to do push-ups in mud season. So anyway ... these last 2 or 3 cycles of modeling appear to be giving into the eastward push.

This just smacks of the type of spring that will set up at 84° in Albany while it’s 39 in Boston

I echo that sentiment, Will I saw a bunch of stuff last night that made me want to close the book on this 23rd/24th scenario… I pride myself for objectivity, but I’m still not numb to difficulty garnering enthusiasm when it’s been really pulling teeth just to get two events of any worth out of an entire winter. …but we know the odds overwhelmingly favor, if not a bowling ball a couple if not several periods of Labradorian urine after what ever that warm-up entails

There’s actually some chance there won’t end up with a very organized event, either, from what I’m looking at… saw some stuff last night that made me wanna pull the plug. We’ll see. But it’s difficult for me to see how it survives both index Charlie Browning, and model amplitude —> attenuation.

It's probably the looming inevitability that July is still coming

Looks like there may in fact be a river in Egypt flowing through this social media's realm

12z ens source/means continued trend of more coherence re the 23/24th. 18z GEFs wobbling 2 mb less but ... either way is obviously negotiable at this range. GEPs may the larger relative change of all three, with a bigger gathering in emergence and strength between the prior 00z and this 12z. The EPS remains the most impressive of all three; having a pearling of members in a near coastal spread that are excessively deep 180+ hrs. This is quite impressive seeing such a high member count at that sort of range, with these kind of pressure depths subtending beneath 965 mb = not sure that is achievable without some sort of more proficient N/stream infusion/phasing. The Euro op. probably exposes those other members that are less dispersive. Tho the mean position at 186 hours (blw) is over the GOM, notice the spread back W/SW with member potency...

Well, look .... both storms happened. Not sure what to say. The threads were not ultimately wrong. Unfortunately, there's no way to tell someone in Rutland VT versus Rye NH vs Hartford CT ...who is going to eat cake and who is going to eat shit, with any sort of assurance. I was planning on starting a thread for it - but if y'all really feel some voodoo like it matters who does. In my defense, I have seen more threads started that had NO storm result comparatively - just sayn

Not trying to gaslight - you see what you see... But, from my perspective it was better than the 06z because it was more coherent. The 06z was not as deep pressure, and spread out over a larger area. You actually gain on this iteration, conceptually, because we need to get the advent of system more secure before we start divvying up who gets f*ed

yeah... it's a solution caught in 'physical emergence' if you will. The next run will be 974 but 30" LOL If this run scanned recursively back through it's solution it would probably have refined an inky CCB blog curved all the way back to Berks

HOLY mackerel on that run, huh

Like the GEFs trend on that ... now below 998 with more members substantially lower aligned along the climate route (between the BM and ACK)

In my opinion ... ... both the GGEM and GFS would be top tier events if it were not for this velocity management problem. This g-damn speed in the flow has been a canvased negative interference going back multiple years. In both these 12z renditions of the 24th potential, the models are just zipping the S/stream too quickly by and it out paces the N/stream ability to subsume/or absorb into the same wave space ... rendering the system to shear ... It's correctable from this range.. But, the speed aspect is real - that part of it is less than clear

I always do ha. too many pages, bro - I figure I'll lace my offering with inimitable charm and folks will either appreciate it, move on ... or secretly appreciate it but because they covet an ambrosia of dark spectrum issues, try to slide passive trolling under the radar - but either way, the saga goes on

Yeah, ...unfortunately marginal - but as you intimate with coherence it's not really something to grouse over at this range. The 850 mb (EPS mean) has an intense gradient couplet bisecting right through here - which is tantalizingly the spring bomb climatology thing