Typhoon Tip

66 needs work

Sides ... I don't think I recall but 1 ...maybe 2 MDWs in my entire life span that were not 86ed at least partially. That GFS model has demonstrated a remarkable penchants for ruining what people want, period. It's not even like it's modeling the atmosphere - it's modeling the degree of sore butting what people want and plans. Doesn't matter what it is. Could be a winter storm. Could be the 4th of July, ...Labor Day..... MDW. It will run out and find any thing physically plausible to gum up the works. hahahaha

It may be in jeopardy. Well ... it already is actually, when considering the modeling. One can certainly eschew the modeling and go with the clad dependable "positive thinking" approach... to each his or her own.

Hope for the Euro over the weekend

Actually, the 18 Z Nam was better… But that model seems to have a low level cold bias, regardless any anyway so… this GFS solution is 70 or warmer every day to the end of the run for a change. An extraordinary accomplishment by that particular model, which leads me to wonder if there’s a heat wave out there somewhere other than this failed this week it takes a Herc effort for the GFS, admit even 70° in July. Given all of its biased rage to suppress warmth. It may actually be warmer in reality.

NAM keeps E of 95 up Labrador's ass thru Monday

Not sure. I suspect we all dawn packed in but it will be diurnal inversion cap stratus. The east wind direction will have a modest downslope aspect which then working with the intense solar max insolation we may see breaks opening up first west but then working E

NW massachusetts is sunny-ish .. The western side of this convergence axis is winning this thing now, as there's a definitive clearing line out there pressing E. Hang on folks, there's an end to this madness. The llvs will persist with the east shits through tomorrow as the seldom understood reality about SNE, being that we are decoupled from the rest of the planetary atmosphere ( jesus!) was clearly created by an asshole god on purpose. Heh eventually that yields from the top down tho. Monday's surface ridge settles finally E enough to veer the winds around... Tomorrow and Monday will be two different worlds for folks E of ORH

It's actually perfect to me ... it fits right in timing with my personal pattern. heh. Not a work out day. No yard projects going on. No other plans? I guess if we have to douche out a whole day, this would have been the day I picked.

Hey John .. low grade heat wave potential, Tue-Thur. By that we mean ... flirting with the big nine-O but could miss with upper 88's. I don't see this as being a dewy heat - we'll see on that... Wet antecedence may contribute locally more so than transport with higher soil moisture after recent rains. But, the current machine numbers are likely a shade cool given the over-arcing synoptic look there.

There's also some straight up convergence between about HFD and ASH ( axis ). Look at the region sat loop you get a distinct impression of a general westward motion east of that line, and an eastward motion west of it. Where in fact if Kevin drove 30 minutes west he'd be in brightening. I think western CT is trying to salvage the afternoon. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Well ...anyway, back here in reality ... That's starting to look more and more like a low-grade heat wave potential Tue-Wed-Thur. The 2-m products ( which are a joke, because they don't in fact actually ever represent the 2-meter slope temperature, but appear to stop/interpret the sfc as the 1000 mb level on the bottom of the soundings ) from the operational runs are already 85 to 87 on Tuesday and Wednesday... 850s are marginal though. 14 to 16C ... but that appears to coincide with favorably less ceiling/blocked insolation, all happening over a wind trajectory that is transporting a kinetically elevated air mass. This has been sort of in the making for over a week in the telecon spreads, with a pretty strong -PNA. It seems to be finally over powering this weird trainwreck thing we've been observing for the past week between here and lower D. Straight. The NAO hasn't been hugely negative ...just sort of. It seems some other emergence of the larger scoped synoptics is/has caused this semi-permanent grunge stalling in in the area... Anyway, 88 to 91 wouldn't shock me for those two days with Thursday a bit sketchy because a Pac front/convection my break the party at that time. And the upshot of this analysis is that I actually studied the guidance when drafting these projections ...

WTF ... I just bold' right back to you, what you posted about NWS SO yeah, I did - 'showers are possible at any time' you seem to also be blind to content that proves, in objective clad black and white facts, your BS - I forgot to add that charm to that list of your accolades -

Ha ha ha to say nothing of the fact that Dendrite only must somehow be construed as a positive thing when it comes to turd weather -

You need reality scope checks ... badly. First of all, in interpreting Met discussions ... that bold statement counts. It was possible to do what it is doing. That does not mean, mainly dry in concept or intent - neither. There's thinking positive' but you have to do it from a position of objective plausibility - not just because it is what one wants. Lol. Secondly, "the 18z runs" don't mean jack shit when there's run after run after run signifying something else when taking their ( duh ) aggregated mean. But ... just for shits 'n' giggles, that is not true about the 18z runs, yesterday, anyway, when taking that single run cycle in a vacuum: Like I said, as this series ( 18z run yesterday ) clearly shows... the GFS busted but the other guidance has QPF plugging into the region from just about exactly what you see happening in the now-cast/synoptics at this time. Bravo all guidance except the GFS. See... (this goes without saying at this point) ... you don't actually look at the guidance. I think you sometimes gather what the guidance must "seem" like just based on something like ... I dunno, the mood-tenor of the moment from the shenanigans in here. That's a social awareness - I'll give that. But it is exceedingly error prone in the long run and gets you into trouble, because you make statements that are patently incorrect, like, "At 18z models were mainly dry... " It's all good though... you're the class clown. They serve a purpose too -

Every guidance except the GFS had it - made a point of it yesterday. The GFS busted fwiw to you

Huh? Radar shows light rain approaching HFD now

Interesting little short term battle between the this new 18z GFS vs everything else for SNE for tomorrow. GFS is gray but dry...probably a little milder by virtue of being so. Perhaps a little drizzle on the immediate shore points. Maybe some breaks in ceiling out CT and western MA. everything else squares the day into the dumpster with steady light rain shut in weather.

It's become a phenotype of Mays to have BTV smoke NYC and BOS' batting average for warmth lol Although next weeks looks like a I-95 corridor warm special from D.C. to PWM Wed/Thur -

It may not rain 'up here' though, ... much. I mean drizzle passing here and there but primarily dry. There's no real means to provide lift, and most likely where the models have the stationary very light QPF blob parked over eastern zones that's just the land/sea convergence over sensitive in the runs. It may also start to sag south during the afternoon. Sort of like what happened yesterday. It'll be a cooler air mass everywhere though. It's a matter of how much.

Yeah unfortunately ...tomorrow probably is 15 below today ( tick or two ). It's probably a day where Danbury CT is bathing in a utopia while Beverley MA is having second thoughts of ever having placed a town charter in that location.

All seriousness ... ( and tedium ), it's a nice out there today. 70 here. I'm noticing that the CU trajectory and the llw wind is actually more NE were I am here in N . Middlesex in east central Mass. That's technically not a marine flow here. With sat presentation showing only micro fluffies getting in the way of the sun, we're probably going to be just fine this mid day. Maybe the s-breeze mechanics overwhelm late in the day. I also noticed the 12z NAM is a little better for Sunday. It's probably going to be cooler coast, warmer deep interior type thing. Could see that being 63 here and 53 at Logan. ...75 in ALB. With sun around. That's a better scenario than prior run.

Fixed

It's almost like the GFS' physics cause these analogous 'Jovian' like fixed spots. Vortex modes, and the rest of the atmosphere just starts moving around them. We happen to be stuck with one SE of L.I. ... Not saying its even wrong, necessarily. There's currently a festering llv gunk low there this morning, helping to send <700mb slab back west into the region. It seems to be all but entirely uncoupled to the mid and upper air synoptics. Something about the llv mass field circulation medium is forcing that interesting

That's a bit different circumstance, though. The Euro I was using to commiserate was D8.5 This above is typical of the GFS at that range. ... just humoring a 372 hour chart for a moment... It seems like a transfixed result of the model, where out around further ranges it (perhaps) loses all other driving forcing ... allowing the underlying Labrodorian cold climate sink as an actual atmospheric footprint. I mean really, just imagine for a moment we remove the land from the map, that's indistinguishable from a the Labrador current's cold SST termination waters. Which by the way, that depiction is colder than the current, too. It would have a cold offset regardless of its own rancid low. ( That latter fact sometimes makes me wonder if it is exposing some of the modeling strategy at NCEP where they may in fact be initializing grids based on climate. The Lab current has been notably getting warmer in the last 10 years in particular ...etc. ) Not just with that aspect. I've noticed the GFS is the wrong model - always - to ever detect heat at extended leads. It's like they templated the model to hide CC LOL ( little sarcasm there..)