Typhoon Tip

for newbs to the region that's gotta be a weird

what is a "Pit8"

Go wonder ...the operational Euro canceled the heat look. I don't know it's hard to get a bead on that D6 to 13 range. There's a low amplitude -PNA which seems to be in spatial conflict/destructive interference with this unrelenting non-linearity of +PNAP ... Quick comment on that... uuusually, the Pacific North American index is tightly correlated to the Perennial North America Pattern - but since last November this has not been the case... Really rather remarkable, the longevity of that uncoupled statistic. It gave as a colder winter than recent years, while the neg interference of it all ...stopped big stormy snows. Now we're seeing the summer afflicted with fast moving fronts and heat suppression tendencies ( so far..). Anyway, the telecons have a sustaining -PNA with a sustaining, albeit modest, +NAO... with cyclic EPO dumps ... heat can certainly manifest over eastern mid latitudes of the continent given that teleconnector spread. The question is, will it? You can go by the verifications - they're going to be above normal if not by whole degrees ... by decimals. That's not related to this... something else The EPS still has at least a flat ridge cutting E in its ensemble mean D7 to 12 ...

I actually don't have a problem with being skeptical of inundating rain - given to the physical layout with pressure trying to rise, sure... but, the models as still not showing very good continuity at the detail level. The amplitude is weak, but the flow is still tending to fast. It's two strikes against model accuracy. The high can't completely protect as much as as it seemingly can at other times. It matters.. the 00z Euro/GGEM both backed off and in fact don't look worse than sprinkles or light showers on Saturday after about 8 or 9am. The GFS? destroys Saturday with stir crazy kids turnin' over furniture and dads wondering like a Talking Heads song "...how did I get here" ... GFS is better on Sunday ... The NAM ( fwi not w ) was actually not bad on Saturday after dawn showery region passes off. Either way, with a high passing by to the N...whether it is steady rain or not, it's still going to be mostly if not totally overcast... probably misting along eastern slopes of terrain. Temps held to 70.

Steady rain Saturday on these recent American runs

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-drives-record-breaking-heat-in-iceland-and-greenland-challenging-cold-adapted-ecosystems-and-societies/

Tomorrows gonna be a different planet.

I’d rather the idiot red state that they are go on ahead and continue denying CC so sea level rises on up and claims the whole thing … land and the morons on it

yeeeah one wouldn't feel confident in that .. heh

Euro extend following the GFS ...

Extended 12z GFS looks decidedly more typical -PNA constructive over the lower 48. Totally different over the NE Pac by abolishing the erstwhile anachronistically powerful polar jet around that Aleutian December low that it's been selling up there. Abruptly replaced with a more climate seasonal break down/flaccidity to the flow. This sets up vastly different forcing across the downstream continent. For one, stopping Pac jet intrusion downstream along 40N. Immediately we see the -PNAP with higher height responses, more consistent with -PNA correlation. So we'll see... it's not the first time we've seen an attempt at this since late April and it's been not doing very well at verifying -

It'll be in the 80s tomorrow

But that’s been an issue. The PNA has already been negative … at least numerically. It just has been repeatingly failing to manifest in the daily patterns. There’s been a bit anti-correlative standing persistence. So for the next week … it rises but doesn’t quite neutralize before collapsing way out there but based on the above failure trend? … doesn’t lend confidence.

There's a high pressure that despite the faster than normal jet structures and power, relative to summer climo, is managing to anchor across Ontario. It's ultimately there because because there's this weird persistence of N-stream mashing the flow S spanning southern Canada, and this is creating a 'standing wave' confluence ... etc... That's really the problem. The N-stream won't die this year. It's frankly been promoting over active wave spacing in the atmosphere at unusually late climate/seasonality. Regardless of Euro-esque, or Good For Shit modeled versions for the weekend, they all are very winter like. I mentioned this yesterday. I imagine that in December as a icy mix with snow chances, albeit light, but Currier&Ives for the run up to the holidays. In the summer? You get -5 dailies/Baffin Island climate

this is true... I read that and was wondering what version of the operational GFS they are cluing in on when it comes to rain ... heh. In fact, I thought the GFS was the more rancid of the choices. The missive is right about the 'stretching' aspect though - that much the author is spot on. In fact, the GFS stretches as model-native bias at all times. some times more evident than others, but I have been railing on about this for years frankly. It's also true - in principle - that weaker systems in a high speed zonal flow tendency are tricky.

It depends... There's no time constraint in the repeating fractals of nature. They are a matter of probability - yes .. it is less likely that a repeating pattern would repeat at longer lengths of time; considering, permutations capable of effecting change to an ongoing system also increase in likelihood the longer the repeating system exists. However, "less" is why some people end up wealthy with accesses to lavishness, hot sex with those they actually want to be with, as a life, while others with the exact same aptitude, effort and application ... do not. It is possible, however less likely ... that this will not change until time has run out on summer.

I mean just look at this CMC run ... Not that it's very likely to happen this way, but the fact that it's even being modeled by a valid machinery of real physics. Chicago with thickness over 580, with sub-530 N o Maine! On the Solstice of summer. I wonder what that delta circumstance is in historical precedence.

something weird is going on all over the place

No one's asking me ... I get it. But this is not as bad as May 2005 imho.

Wednesday and Thursday should be 80 with sun around ... just when it is important for everyone to be that way -

Because of the stunningly stalwart defiance to change (the trend that has never un-trended itself ... ) I'm gonna go ahead and just assume this precarious weekend dong set up of a pattern will go ahead a verify the rape and claim a 14th soul in row ... At this point, we've seen a dozen different modeled reasons to not fuck up a weekend's sensible weather, with a 0-15 W-L record. Sometimes, the trend just has to end per its own unpredictable nature, and it's just a waiting game. That means no matter what outlook says otherwise, the onus in on the trend to stop at all. Because apparently ... there are no scenarios capable of stopping it within the capacity of human technology for detection. So, if you're an operational Met predicting the summer, you forecast all weekends fucked until further notice. Capiche?

A peculiar aspect has been going on between the teleconnection prognostics ( from all sources), vs the operational counter parts of those sources. Those being ECMWF, GFS, CMC The telecons spread has been correlated to warmer than normal since early April The operational runs have been routinely/predominatingly low-balling, with modeled outlooks persistently materializing synoptics that look like at best like they are at the bottom margin of the correlation fields. They're doing it again now ... they are unrelenting keeping a N-stream anachronistic to the season, and this is suppressing real heat, as well as making flow unusually progressive along 40N across the continent ( not sure if this is a hemispheric plague but I suspect it's just N/A where this has been/is still the modeled case). And they have been winning.. We've had one or two hot days, everything else has been pedestrian. But here's the thing ... they kind of both have been winning and losing. Because temperatures have in fact verified above normal so far AMJ/3. But the devil's in relativity. The pattern relative temperatures have verified much warmer than the operational pattern. This may or may not be CC hiding in the works, but whatever the cause ...we have been getting warmer than the verified patterns suggests we should - all the while, the verifying pattern has not been very well correlated to the teleconnections. This doesn't bode well for the summer ... If it continues with this head game, those that want the true deep heat may have to deal with a temperate summer. Basically also just a continuation of the winter, where N/A apparently was the nadir in temperatures compared to the rest of the entire planet.

Oh the models are buckin' for a winter pattern analog - just doing it aoa 564 thickness instead of 534 - Take the depth of the thickness out if for sake of discussion, if you saw these synoptic features set up this way ( as the 00z Euro below), on Dec 10, you'd be giddy for mood snows and holiday vibes...

we had one here for about 15 minutes yesterday morning.... Just got power fully restored. Lots of trees snapped off and laid across power lines making roads into and out of town ...some impassible. Altho canes don't typically have quarter sized hail and near continuous lightning ... but the roar of the wind was such that not thunder was really audible until the storm was moving and we were looking at CB bum