Typhoon Tip

we had a wind shift prior to this line moving in ... was SW ..now WNW I think this was a processed air from when this was over eastern NY earlier this morning. it's not really associated/generated by this current/nascent stuff because it was too far out ahead.

yup there we go nice cell near orange

Impressive CB structures visible here on the NW-N horizon associated with that... I can also see TCU ( new) just up the way so I suspect Rt 2 may take off down here soon

Next chance for a heat wave is Sun-Mon-Tue ... Tuesday's a bit of a wild card. May fail, but Sun-Mon are modeled as low or middle 90s. Beyond that... there doesn't appear to be an ensemble supported cooler transport, so it's not clear how far down toward normal the ambience will settle off. It may in fact stay modestly above normal during the remainder of the week. Beyond that...watching for the possibility of a newer warm ridge emergence. The spatial synoptic layout of the ensemble, particularly in the EPS mean, for that that period show a distinct tendency for lowering heights in the Pac Nw... At this time of year that teleconnects to a ridge in the mid lat continent down stream. We're talking D10+ so the operational runs don't really have any responsibility to necessarily show that - so we'll see. But that tendency preceded the eventual emergence of the bigger heat event recently when it too was in the 10 day to 2 week lead, but only vaguely. It seems to be this is a leitmotif so far this warm season - could be an indicator for a warm summer if that continues. In the meantime, I do suspect we'll have to contend with bigger heat once or twice during these next 3 weeks at some point.

weak flow in the summer's a bitch to figure this shit out sometimes. all these crickets in the flow. that band is between the fronts given WPC, which is kind of a piece of shit surface obs option anyway, because they only update the fucker 3 hours at a time. so who knows .... what's triggering a band of convection doing between these boundaries it seems to decaying on radar/ sat trends. but the surface obs on the post side of it are cold. it's in the low to mid 60s under that wedged clearing over eastern NY this is nuanced scenario. that's doesn't seem like anything's going to trigger there.

Other than he should be looking at the wave frequency along the interface latitudes of the HC's termination into the westerlies, and not above the polar jet at this time of year ... , sure

If this Euro-esque solution were to take place, this would set up a mega torch for the NP-Lakes-OV-NE. ...basically everywhere over the c-eastern mid latitude continent.

Boom... I guess it was kind of easy call but we are teasing out the risk a bit more from SPC. It's just that I'm big on mid level lapse rates for our climo. when I see diving cool pool aloft, arriving over an antecedent warm lower troposphere... it's basic cake batter. We get the big tors and very large hail, rarely. what get more frequent in wind and nickle hail enough to snap timber.

that chart does not signify "no sign" - to say so doesn't do this source any help in confidence they know how to interpret

I actually completely agree with this source's "hot take" on the outlook.

https://phys.org/news/2025-07-fossils-earth-famous-extinction-climate.html Particularly alarming when the study cites destruction of the tropical flora band, which is precisely what anthropomorphic influence is doing

just need tomorrow and heat wave #2's in the books

I edited that My sense is that's got a fair shot at being an upgrader

Seems like Thursday is explosive but the models are skimpy of the QPF nodes you typically see with that. UKMET's okay ..sorta. But the Euro and GFS ..NAM and whatever aren't impressive. Yet, the synoptic cinema has cold mid level with rim arriving after we've cooked CAPE. Just in principle some one some where's getting a tropopause rolling 50k foot top baseball thrower actually ... hm, DPs are lower now that I check. I thought those were supposed to be mid 60s but the Euro's dry. OH, wait. never mind... Yeah no this doesn't add up. The Euro should nuke

I think this is my highest DP of season at 76 and it's 92. KFIT's 90/72 so the HI is up there.

90/74

yeah.. it's largely un-noteworthy. But I think there's some value in tracking it climate-wise. My feel is that this has a shot at being a substantially above normal July. I don't think we've had a lot of July's like that in recent years - my impression is anecdotal, but it seems we're more impressively above normal during winter as of late. KBOS was 89.6 yesterday and again a few minutes ago today. Rounding?

so, yesterday was 90 here. Seems well enough corroborated with surrounding home sites and KASH... now it's 89. 90 is in the bag. If we do this tomorrow it's official. It would be the 2nd heat wave of this young summer.

89/74

Heh ... ICONological heat this next Monday, huh -

Both Japan, and the Mediterranean (Sea, not sure on air but France and eastern Iberian Penn were just roasted in in 42C) observed their hottest Junes on record.

NAM insists on a pretty significant temperature burst in 2-3 hrs. WPC analyzing the warm boundary W-E thru central NE; the region's primed for a temp rise. High res vis imagery suggests the mid level gunk is smearing away and immediately there's skylights opening up over NE PA/E-SE NY. It's early ... As that tendency arrives, we'll likely see better heating.

90

can you imagine if the present gaggle of corruption actually possessed intelligentsia and mole'd their way into the modeling framework ?

heh okay. yeah, i guess to each is his own. i just am sitting here working from home precariously nearing turning on the cooling dial on the mini splits. it's gone above comfort.