Typhoon Tip

actually looks like a warm front to me ...that early sunday morning whisk through thing. mostly cne up for any expression of it, and by 18z ... 550+ dm ... thickness' west and south zones and 546 with 'polar barotropic' air mass rapidly ne. the gfs has it too, but it then lifts a theta e conveyor for early next week, which it uses to 52 f rain for two straight days or something but it's likely overdone like everything ever modeled in that range+ seems to be these days.. anyway, no one asked but it looks to me like a warm burst could materialize circa 15th -20th. not a certainty but ... i would suggest folks consider that despite the recent cool snap and today's treat, don't be lulled into thinking it's 1995 again. we still are very much in a larger/longer/planetary circumstance of 'anything that can go warm usually does and exceeds expectation' sort of reality. if -epo does bias west, together with that underpinning -pna during tht time range we will be 70 deg. the key is the ne pac and how it might transmit forcing down stream. nuanced

ncar's rad history doesn't make it abundantly clear why-for the paltry exclusion here. though there was a modest lull around 3 or 4 am, it was filled back in with green rad returns by dawn. i think perhaps the very marginal nature of this doomed the light fall rate locations. my friend in auburn was probably falling faster than melt rates, so was able to accumulate, where we were falling slower. distribution ends up being either 1 inch or 4 with less in between.

similar here... est .5" of glop snow in grass and sliding down car windows. just wet roads. my buddy down in auburn ma with 5" ( s of orh by a little ). this 'event' needed something like a quantum computing core to better predictively assess where. lol ...

Mad squall in Southwest lower Michigan right now… My sister says there’s crazy lightning and thunder with white out wind snow

yeah that's an interesting look, that 18z long duration mixer. lasting some 30 hours. the wpo is neutralizing ... finally. it had been correcting neg as it was emerging but that has ceased. however, the epo is trending down. i don't believe these two make for a very stable hemisphere and something is likely correct. but how. in the mean time, the pna slips neg. the weighting of the 'tippy' flow tendency with vestigial -epo vs these other warming signals is unclear, but i'd be prepared for more model noise than usual ... least through the 10th

probably false/machinery but there was a tor warn tripped in a squall passage associated with the arctic front out in se minnesota

was he in the tournament back a month ago ? my crew and i were in that

not associated to the "clipper" ...but there is a weak windex signal skirting through. snow squall looking features on rad out around eastern ny probably sweep through

that's a nice disk golf course there ... we used to regular that one back in the day. my buddy moved to southern orh co and so the last several years we've been hitting buffum and pyramids and maple hill etc.. we keep swearing we'll get back out there for old time sake. i hear they changed the course layout though so who knows. it might suck now too

i know...ha, cut and paste one of my gems and send that out to the pta while you're at it

oh.. right. no i meant that at a societal/general scope of this field, but may as well be everywhere heh. it's a problem in culture..."eschewing of intellect" in general. it kind of reminds me of "Idiocrasy," when they arrested him for being smart ass because he was smart. hahaha

my schadenfruede for tuggin on taint hairs

yet ...when some of us spend the time to really write detailed analysis from both surmise, as well as educated perspective base ... people don't read, rather ... make chide and/or make sarcastic barbs and general disrespect for the effort. basically, americans are turning into c*s

first and possibly last winter weather advisory of the season is out ...

zero z gfs was e with that idea of a new wave down the front fwiw -

in fairness ...it's an unusual situation. it's bit of a beautiful nick of timing thing. if this ordeal hesitated for so much as a coffee break, we're +1c too warm all the way through the snow growth region of the sounding. but as is, in the guidance, the speed of the flow is actually helping something for a change. i mean this system overtakes the lower troposphere, which happens to be cold enough that there is a decently large drag coefficient and the system is overrunning it. otherwise obviously the sw flow, sfc to aloft, heh

the eps is attempting to relearn ( ... or remind perhaps - ) us that we are in a new paradigm whence in the absence of a -epo or direct cold forcing, we surge warmer than normal and by an usual amount. i began noticing a kind of direct feed requirement for cold dependability .. about 12 years ago really. i recall posting about it several times spanning a few cold seasons thereafter - but have since declined the practice because no one ever really has responded with anything resembling an acknowledgement ( - no mystery there ). this paradigm began back then, where it and there are times when it is exemplifying - this 850 mb temperature anomaly by the 0z eps shows what a neutralized epo, ie, cold spigot closed, does to for us at mid latitude continent ... almost immediately. within a mere couple of days, blw ...granted, it is way out in the extended, but the predictability/confidence isn't the point. the physical processing of the model is, in principle, indicating the same phenomenon here where we seem to be in a state where we've lost the ability to sustain any averages -

noticed that ... weak but still substantive +pp layout along and n of the border from lake superior to mid ontario. close enough for llv insert ... then, southern push arrives for a snow to ice to (probably) cold rain. the ggem had something kinda like that on sunday morning's run - not exactly but similar result. but since then it's sliding any high pressure off to the east and unabated southerly wash ensues. meanwhile the gfs has been oscillating between too far west with the traffic, to not a chance too far west with traffic - pick which grinch

haha ... snow on a sw wind? what could go wrong -

https://phys.org/news/2024-12-countdown-ice-free-arctic-timelines.html not a huge fan of the article's style of delivery and content presentation but ... the result is the result. i just find it something how the evidences of acceleration keep emerging. just 10 years ago the narrative was 'within the next 100 years' and yet again, here we see another example of how this climate change impact occurring sooner rather than later.

it does re af and presage to this thing down to 968 mbs as it passes east of down East Maine

-epo alaskan ridge same thing

heh ...glad you put 'warm front' in quotes there. i mean, it's not like a warm front on the charts. it's just warmer heights south than 20 + years ago. even if only be 3 to 5 dm, that's significant enough generate more gradient induced, balanced basal flow rate around the hemisphere - and you are right, it's doing so at higher latitudes, where as a consequence to all of this, ...the southern jet is being 'robbed' so to speak ... i guess abandoned is more apropos. also, think of all this as tendency - it's not like there won't be a subtropical jet anymore. just talking about why the s/w mechanical smearing is become more and more prevalent.

if/when said switch occurs ... the pdo does not force the pattern. it's a feedback from ocean-atmospheric coupling over a period of time. not you per se, but there's seems to be a misconception about that. once the pattern is there, there can be a secondary constructive sort of interference but it wasn't there first and it's overcome-able. having said that, the -pdo predominance may be an attribution result if that is the case, that's not lending a whole helluva lot of confidence that anything is going to push a +pdo mode - or if so, for very long

just as an after thought you know, i am always leery of those facets when we enter favorable patterns. 'how are we going to end up paying taxes on this shit this time' with an eye rolling. we started getting charlie browned by them about .. 9 years ago, but at around that time, my memory was like, 'hey ..this has been happening for a lot longer now that i think about it'