Typhoon Tip

Can't.... Earth would have to lose it's magnetic dynamo. Venus suffered H2O extinction from slow rotation and having too little dynamo, while being technically too far inside the Goldy zone ... That meant eons of pulverizing radiation cracking water molecules apart - there's also likelihood that Earth began with or received water sources in addition to having the powerful dynamo that protect it. But... if by saying "like Venus", we just mean hot as hell? that can happen with different chemistry and insolation, too.

well... yeah. but then Earth, nor the nature within which it exist are ideal then, either. 1800s had a couple a big volcanoes. then we got solar cycles and storms there. comet impacts... CRB's from deep astronomy for shit's sake. I mean how far outside of it do we wanna go, we can certainly find reasons to just suggest it's all futile anyway. Or, we can keep the conversation constrained to Human asshole forcing not adding to this compendium of plausible disaster scenarios. That's the point.

Human influence/forcing "hidden in the noise of climate variability" is fanciful rhetoric that really means the same thing as Earth being capable of absorbing the human influence - all systems, weather and biology. This is academic logic really ... but still needs to be stated for a lot of population that don't get it. Species loss and species migration are happening because when the emergence out of noise became coherent, that coincides with changes occurring faster than species adaptation rates. Dead meat. Humans are not unaffected. The Serbian diaspora 15 to 20 years back took place because of shifting climate zones and agricultural failure over a vast region ... These are all just physically realized evidences; when the anthropomorphic forcing was still contained inside the Earth's ability to hide it in the noise, that means adaptation had a chance. I'm just saying that coherence became like a data proxy for when the detriment began. People are waiting for threshold dystopia ...but, it's more likely that a series of them will breach silenty, like crossing an event horizon - you don't feel anything out of the ordinary when you go across, but you don't return to the previous state . We surpass enough of them and then find ourselves in a "Serbian crises", perhaps one that has fewer existential solutions When that expose happened, also marks the first threshold being crossed. When the warming becomes (attribution) discernible and differentiable, meaning it sticks out of the noise as being more significant, that is the threshold of injury.

https://phys.org/news/2025-06-planetary-linked-wild-summer-weather.html

No problem from me ... I've smirked the notion in multiple post over the last 10 years. Climate forcing probably began the moment that inquisitive proto modern human picked up stick still aflame at one end somewhere along the sub-Saharan African savanna, and it dawned on him/her. Well not right then - ... but controlling fire. It just needed 200 years of Industrial humanity to become very obvious ... Before then, it's presence was buried in the noise of natural variability.

Altho that looks like a ripe environment for overnight MCS over the weekend

I'm expecting 2-3 deg machine number cool bias Fri/Sat, too. Back side attenuated cool advection becomes mainly a DP evac, leaving the region with W-NW d-slope with still +14 850s has super adiabatic expansion ...blah blah... I bet it's 80+ Thurs.. MEX is already doing 86 Sat at KBDL-KFIT-KASH Frid.... this should translated into town no problem in that synoptic. I bet those are nine-os In fact, we may materialize the heat wave beginning Sat -->

The NAM is bringing this warm front thru tomorrow morning

Steamy tho. If that's one's bag than sure. But these NAM grid numbers are like 574 dm thickness, at the bottom of which is 23 C above the 2-meter temperature. 36000818853 -2399 132110 74231813 42000908660 -1900 132112 74222014 Which means it could be in the mid or upper 80s at eyebrow, while DPs are 70 to 75 ...

mm... not sure you looked hard enough for the rain ? the GFS/Euro runs from 12z yesterday, for early/mid day today ( 18z) and they clearly had a field of QPF in the region - I guess you can argue the degree of inundation but if one is being objectively open minded about weak flow/summer/and green on charts, they might paint picture in their mind that includes the possibility of it not being sunny and 84 lol

yeah, I was just going over the more detailed mass distribution and timing and it's really those two days 'at this time' ... I mean, the ensembles of the EPS and GEFs would allow the operational runs to to 'fill those days in' *thu-sat. They were sort of more like that yesterday. It's not believable one way or the other at this range... but these latest runs are cooling the 850s by a couple clicks each day after that. It's not abundantly clear how that is doing that, but both the Euro and GFS did that. It's almost like they're fabricating/introducing emergent little erosion factors.

Except that it takes 5 minutes to install a window unit, close the doors, and turn it on... So oh my god, t-minus whatever days:hrs:seconds to the crushing reality of 5 minutes of effort I guess ... lol

No way ...

I thought it backed off a tick ... but, I think you're referring mostly to the 2-meter type product layouts? The Euro detonates a field of CBs in the mid day heat a week from Thursday, and that knocks the feet out from under the longevity of this thing. It was supposed to be unperturbed thru Saturday and that back end/half of it's being normalized by that 00z run. But with heights starting to ebb the model seems to be using that and the processing together as means to establish decay momentum that normalizes stuff prior to the previous idea. But yeah, the Tues-Wed ... it's like the models trying to 'cone' the heat into a 2-day, sun comes to earth event. It's all noise obviously. Until next Wednesday is D4 ...( maybe Saturday's runs...), I'm pretty heavily ensemble reliant. The EPS continues to inch more impressive in the main 500 dm metrical heights, in terms of layout and vertical dimensions. As did the GEFs, now actually having caught up and being complementary - for still D6 and beyond, that in itself is worth the mention. The GEPs is attempting to down play - either that or it is just not caught up yet. Not sure which... I don't tend to rely on the GEPs for summer stuff.

As an after thought the 80F in some Febs and Marches over the last 20 years may qualify … but part of climatology is the time of year. There may be circumstantial limitations (physically) that prevent really truly gaudy I-95 buck.10s that aren’t there in the earlier spring

Too early to go big ... responsibly, anyway. It's tricky though because ginormous events have a real statistical proven ability to "show up" early and establish themselves in guidance with relative persistence ... compared to say, a big bomb in the winter that comes and goes in the guidance...only to verify as a pedestrian winter storm. Heat is very fragile in the guidance. That's problematic - early detection of historic heat is not really so statistically clad. As I was pointing out earlier, these so -called "synergistic heat events" - codified that way in attribution science related to CC ...etc. - were not seen in the same way prior to their occurrence. The reason for that difference is that they are non-linear - they emerge within the on-going signal. The analogy to "rogue wave" in a choppy sea really does work well. We can predict the stormy sea, we cannot tell if that stormy sea will synergize. In other word, unless we unpack the quantum manifold that excludes time in such a way that all possibilities are known, ...we ain't forecasting Pac NW anytime soon. We can only see the warm pattern. When I see that pattern like that... I agree, let's get the pattern definite. The other aspect is that I don't think the eastern OV up through NE has ever seen a synergistic heat event. It's not a region conducive to that non-linearity. There are places in the ocean where rogue waves are more apt to occur, for example. I'm under the impression that as the analog goes, we are not as heat prone here. Those that hate heat and see 101 on the thermometer would probably rage that we do heat just fine, but Heathrow AP up at London, put up a 105 in 2022, at a latitude 5 degrees N of Caribou Maine. Relative to their climatology, that is a whopper SD larger than anything Boston has seen. That was a patented SHE ... An equivalent temperature at Boston is ~ 112 If the megalopolis from PHL to BOS 2-meter hover T'ed a 112 some fateful afternoon, particularly after it'd been 100 for a couple of stressed out bonker days of it already, ah-heh. right.

So I guess we've reduced the pixel counts/allowance on the site? graphics are being rejected ...ones not particularly expensive either. This is a truncated CFS solution from 12z centered on 204. I thought it interesting to note that this model's climate fusion with the operational GFS is still bursting through that weight and putting this enormous positive anomaly integral fro Colorado to NS

From this range you assume the standard corrections. As Scott was saying, the NW flow is likely to offset - this appears to be ( at this time...) trying to take a S/W plateau slab of desert kinetic air and sending over top. This is not initially a Bermuda/Gulf delivery. 99/63-ish more so than 89/76. The other aspect that I think Brian hit on is that normal model magnification may normalize some. A standard heat wave is still going to be a score for modeling and recognition from this range. We'll see how things evolve in guidance I will say though that the ensemble means of all 3 remain impressively amplified, above 594 circumvallate 500 mb ... in fact, it's not even clear it ends but really just loses coherence by virtue of normal member meandering way out in time - there's still arguably vestiges of it there beyond 300 hours.

HI at 11:45 am is bigger than 4pm

1997 for me ... ... there may be some subjective perspective on what qualifies as fast food. But McDonalds ? no

heh... it's a billion dollar operation that is a baseball organization - it has something to do with baseball. I get it that it's not based on what I just said, but I also didn't say that - I said it helped. I bet if Devers didn't spend the first month of the season suckin donkey D on offense with historically bad numbers ... but say, he hit .380 in the span instead, it would have factored some.

i also wonder if the fact that they swept the Yanks, and took 2/3 in the last two previous series, while Devers was slumping and not really helping them on offense, just might of maybe helped the final inking be a little more legible ...

probably silently speaks volumes about how much they appreciated his antics back in spring training when he attempted to dictate to the organization where/what/how he plays. Just a guess. I mean yeah ... they'll positive spin the move per protocol and PR as something else, but it's really a go fuck yourself thing

This is also a Sonoran heat release pattern fwiw

People engaged in this soc med pastime seem to impulse-down-play when they sense someone's exuberance ... LOL. Probably? this is a good thing. Maybe even instinct as a crowd physical means to normalize the group think toward sensibility. You know, stop a rash decision/recourse that takes out the whole tribe.. heh - then again, we have amongst us some sources that really need that because they are known violators of common verbal decency when it comes to porno interpretation of the modeling cinema - Be that as it may, I would be a little concerned in this case that something extraordinary may be be "cooking." Just keep that on the back "burner" as a non-zero possibility. We have in fact gained on this signal's prominence among the multi-method technique, ranging from ens/mass fields, telecons that represent those (numerically), ...operational version both subtle and gross comparisons... etc. All of them, spanning now 4 consecutive day's worth of runs. The confidence is about as maxed out on what it can be against "model climate error" for a D6-10 range. I mentioned this yesterday and it is still the case... this is a candidate for a synergistic heat bomb. One that that by nature of their emergent properties, would be difficult to see coming. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon in a stormy sea. The wave at least needs the stormy sea within which to occur. There is some basic identifiable framework required. Perhaps this not unlike the quantum Non-Markovian effect. It's a theoretic that the future state of a system is based not just on the quantum presentation, but also the quantum memory of the system. Having nodal hot dome that's being left to fester, fed by intense insolation over multiple diurnal cycles ... When we say "high launch pad" that isn't merely figurative, that is suspiciously very alike a system's quantum memory "setting the state", and then the non-linear observation takes place. interesting Sooo... for now, what I suggested yesterday imho is still in place. One, we rely mainly on ensemble means. Part of that ... big signals sometimes deamply as they near - I call this the moon on the horizon effect. When the signal first detects out at the temporal horizon, looms catastrophically large, but then as it rises into clarity...it becomes just an ordinary expectation. This is also somewhat analogous to 'boy cry wolf' modeling... because synergistic events take place in the atmosphere, ...we can't expect to catch them predictively just by making sure that every early modeled detection is looks like one. Two, synergistics really can't be assessed with any "degree" of certitude ( haha), but in recognizing the basic framework.. yeah. The other thing to consider is that it won't be 120 here like the Pacific Northwest. We're still going to be loaded with more atmospheric impurities and other offsets that are normal. But, setting records across back to back diurnal days or something ... We'll know if we dealing with a special case if/when