Typhoon Tip

right ...keep a storage for this

Maybe relative to climo ? ...I mean I don't know. Just askin' I can tell you that 113, certainly if repeating, is unusual for May even for them.

I think it's perfect with the breeze. It's value-add. It reminds me of a perfectly tempered swimming pool in the air.

Could be a wake up call to get off the processed foods and eat more wholesome organic veggies and pure low saturated fat meat sources, combined with a lifestyle coach for work outs and sleeping, huh. heh Which by the way, RIP Morgan Spurlock. ...speaking of the Industrial Food Complex ... he was the guy that wrote, directed, and starred in "Super Size Me," a info-drama where he dedicated 30 straight days of eating nothing by McDonald's. There was also a sidecar requirement that he had to finish every meal. Including when asked if he wanted to be supersized, he had to say yes... etc. Processed food is significantly correlated with cancer ..etc.

82/48

I'm not sure the "marine heat wave" phenomenon works for the Great Lakes the same way. Great Lakes thermal storage has a different response to physical stressing. They may be considered the same but my personal ( perhaps semantic, fine - ) take on that is that because the causal geophysical roots cannot really compare, they shouldn't be dubbed the same way ( if that is the case...). Just sayn lol The marine aspects out amid the total expanse of the 'oceanic hemisphere' are a synergy resulting from geophysical inputs that cannot ever apply to the Great Lakes. For one thing... time and mass -related different responses to stress factors makes the comparison less so. For example, wind stressing on the Lakes can literally slosh the surface and thermocline depths, complete obliterating the previous state in a single event. As a result of these so-called "over turning" occurrences, it's not uncommon for beaches along Lake Michigan's eastern shores to plummet from 75+F, all the way to the mid 50s, even in mid summer ... due to strong short duration wind events... Derechos, be they late summer canonical first fronts ...etc. The stuff we're discuss out among the oceans has to do with OHE loading and mass quantities that exceed the single capacity of a local timescale wind stressing events. They are a combination of a reducing evaporation rate in the total integral of the oceanic-atmopheric coupling, which lower evaporation is a warming influence, combined with changes in the circulation footprint - which this latter is redistributing the wind stressing pattern as part of CC. Those warm pools thus can and will maintain a 'heredity' of that truer longer term more dominating aspect.

Sneaky diurnal range contender today... Refreshing 53 for a low and it's 80 after an explosive morning temperature response to this ultra purified air really allowing max insolation. To rise 27 F before 10 am is impressive. Probably we'll hit the bounce temperatures sooner than normal ... but, there's a dry boundary coming down this afternoon backing the the light wind from W to more NW, which is some d-slope compression too. As an aside, this is the lowest smoke contaminated atmosphere at continental scales that I personally recall since 2020

Maybe you won't have to wait too long should this p.o.s. end up being the settling state

Can't just let us have an above normal week... it's got go out of the way to correct cold.

Oh 70 DP ...where have you been. We may see some brightening/dim sun spreading E throughout the afternoon.

aaahhh... I'm temped to proffer a CC connection there. Not sure we're necessarily going to balance things out with a "span of years" in this case. We can have a summer and/or winter of old, still, but the return rates are stretching. Just my suspicion -

I think you're visualizing a synopsis that has been increasingly rarefied over the last 10 or 12 years ... What is becoming more prevalent during summers: early heat of varying but ultimately unremarkable stature, followed a weakness at mid levels ( when not an actual trough) becoming Rossby stuck along 90W. This has been causing stagnated theta-e positive anomalies at llvs, but because of that total wholesale construct, EML expulsion can't get much E of Detroit before deflecting south. Over here on the E side of said axis, 84/78 putrid black mold air stagnatie has has been mid summer favored. Obviously that is not/has not been true at all times - people have to be nuanced in thinking along gradations and tendency - a tendency to do so, increasing... I'm waiting to see if that emerges again.

Yeah a lot of this was diurnally assisted. As the suns come up over the realm that halts the radiative cloud top cooling related destabilizing factor- which is elevated instability. That may account for some weakening look to the satellite. Warning's allowed to expire. I have dim sun through vil debris, and rad looks like nothing is getting this far N in Mass. Probably, this all slides off by 1pm looking at translation rate on sat, and then we'll see if we can muster sfc based instability associated with the front. etc... These morning convection things can get in the way of things.

Haven't looked at much but knee jerk reaction to radar trends, ... this isn't doing much today N of about Meriden CT. ... even though there is no warm front being analyzed by WPC... the stuff in SE Mass included with the warned cell entering SW CT and extending back W along that axis, smacks as some sort of boundary. It may be theta-e but I'm venturing that idea without looking. In general, sending anvil debris and light rain N of that ~ axis may not end well for them

which by the way ... I don't normally access that data source. Did Boston/Logon really trace snow on 3 different occasions last month ?

yeah about like yesterday. altho more intense/unadulterated sun on the shoulders adds

np here

I was reading a recent paraphrase republication about the NE Pacific warm pools being a recurring consequence associated with changing circulation modes ( teleconnection). Those that try and correlate these long terms air-sea coupled correlations in winter projections may find this useful ... https://phys.org/news/2024-04-atmospheric-teleconnections-sustain-blobs-northeast.html (the original source material is linked - ) The WPO's influence/factorization in the discussion, notwithstanding, the NE PAC/'EPO' loading is enhanced(ing) these N/A cold outbreaks. Intuitively counter to CC motif as it may be.

you know I think it'd be interesting to see this curve back to 1750 ... maybe 1700. 1750 is the widely/historically noted beginning of the IR.

I tell ya ... if we ever get 22.5C at 850 mb in a vertically integrating sounding while this sky condition is happening, we will be 105 at all majors, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I've noticed over the last 20 years ...when > 22C types of kinetically charged warm slabs, rare as it may be, successfully swath over the region from a SW/Sonoran type heat release synoptics, we seldom observe the above striking purity of clear. We always have poorly timed mid or high level gunk to take the edge off.

Interesting ... sort of indirect argument from the MJO desk that lends to the current longer range pattern orientation summer gloom doom by the ens as suspect. I'm just trying to get a feel for the early summer pattern bias -

Distant teleconnector projections from all three ensemble system have a dramatic mode change from negative to positive PNA. Nooormally, the PNA takes a backseat in the summer - to which we are not actually/technically in, just yet, granted ( certainly close enough that the PNA statistical correlation should be lowering ). However, that signal is also glaringly and quite unusually massively signaled in the ensemble mean spatial layouts; the depiction of the circulation mode presented imm below tends to rule out the non-correlation argument. In other words, it's difficult to imagine a broad hemispheric foot print like below successfully transporting much AN. They all three look similar to this enough to just use the EPS Deep troughing between Hawaii and California sets up in the deep range, and puts N/A down stream into a set up that looks like it would completely shut down summer as we head deeper into the first week of June. I've seen big signals fall apart this late winter through spring, in the extended range a couple of times. We'll see where this goes as the time arrives, but it does raise some tentative caution flags for the 'unending, unbroken warm season enthusiast' crew, when considering that we've seen more than just 1 or 2 summers end up dimmed after an early warm anomaly period. Just sayn'

80 here by 9 not bad

I'm not sure I need to? It's not even in question. We already know