Typhoon Tip

it's too bad folks don't channel a mental space where they see realistically plausible corrections. some can rely upon that visualization space, one that is constructed out of what can happen and what needs to happen to get it done ... it's like an "effective imagination," not just imagining and waiting. it seems like people have to actually see the object on the daily modeling cinema. it's not always the case ... some of the times there's stuff going on that is - I guess ... - just outside of capacitance to sense or detect it for those. and so this mood thing gets entirely controlled by the unknowable. man, that's a weird hell.

in spirit of Chubb's content above ... i'll have to find the article but university scientist have successfully created a nuclear powered, 'diamond battery' really fascinating. the gist of it is that they embedded carbon-14, a radioactive isotope of carbon, inside regular diamond crystal. the resulting stone emits an abundance of energy, with a half-life of 1,000 years! ..again, this is rough. i'll try to find it. and somehow, it is apparently radioactively safe. that's really ... how you power something like a "Data" from "Star Trek: The Next Generation" haha. or sophisticate and scaled it up from this primitive version ( being primitive because it's the first of its kind and so the applications are thus unexplored - ) this would be a game change for powering ev in general. imagine every city with it's own 1,000 year lived, diamond batteries in parallel i'm pretty harsh about humanity's innovation on this world, as being perhaps the most destructive natural disaster to have ever occurred ... aheh. and all that, but i've always maintained that we are in fact in a race - whether we realize it or not. one that is winnable, should heads disengage from asses in time to pick up the pace. see ... when we "sold our souls" to tech/ ir as a way of survival, we unwittingly committed to a race between the damage tech causes, vs innovated correcting tech - sort of ironic. but it is because the damage of the former doesn't have any natural means int he background planetary system that have evolved along with it as quickly as the damage of tech creates. so you have to correct it... or, survive and die by dice roll. mass extinctions, to what is known about the fragility of ecology, ...to paleo-geology uncovering that earth demonstrates no mercy and/or compunctions when shedding 90+% of all it's life because of terrestrial and non-terrestrial influences... all this doesn't lend to a fairly weight die if losing that race and hoping for the better -

yeah ...well, should that be the case, welcome to the 24th century and beyond I suppose -

ensembles coming around ... all three have more coherent emergence, choosing the 21st the gefs on the left - i like that the spread at this range isn't smearing west to buffalo the eps, middle - i don't like that the spread is nw the geps on the right - seems to be playing catch-up on this whole ordeal the 500 mb evolution of the 20-22nd suggests that there are deep solution potential resulting from all this. the individual/point members in the above depiction, notwithstanding... but the most impressive was the d(gp) between the 19th and 21st by the eps' 00z. there two nodes of vorticity that are implied in the evolution below; they in the process of rotating cyclonically relative to the total l/w evolution. whenever you see that, and then the right frame are the favored resulting coalescence ( very deep result ) that is typical of major events that are born of constructive interference ( ... this is obviously all still an evolving scenario ); the graphical mean above does not actually do below justice. this will be interesting in new run cycles.. one aspect that keeps sticking out to me is that there is a speed issue with the streams. particularly with the n/stream. any attempt to dig the n/stream is producing an usually strong gradient - this is effecting the efficiency of multiple aspects ranging from cyclogen stressing .. to how well the the phasing ( like the above implication by the eps ) can actually take place. there is a new, growing -epo signal that is occurring in temporal coincidence with the +d(pna) --> +pnap. i'm beginning to suspect this is why the western ridge has been middling in response to the +d(pna) forcing - there's some -interference implied by that. the -epo needs to precede/lapse into a +d(pna), not occur at the same time. i think the operational versions have been dealing with that all along, which may account of some of why their ridge responses don't look as good the ensemble means. there's probably going to be a system that results from all this but where and amplitude, cold vs warm ... ? the usual headaches

same page ... but i do consider the 'main' event to be a single deal. the thing is, it's like none of this happens in a vacuum of assistance from other factors, so dragging bczones and layin' in a crucial increment of colder air - i dunno. i'm getting a headache already lol

i mentioned this to Will a while ago ... i'm not more/less certain on either the 20/21st or the 22/23rd. i suspect when push comes to shove, we may may really be dealing with one event between the 19th and 23rd, but the moving parts are a combination of spread out all over kingdom come, or, don't even exist yet because they have to be synergistically produced in the future by result of interacting dynamics - an aspect in particular that offers certain challenges to modeling tech.

yehh the operational ecm is bit of a troubled break from that ens mean and doesn't look right - either way i wouldn't trust that look beyond 144 there's too much weight at this point heading thru a +d(pna) --> strongish +pnap to believe the euro op's half-assed commitment to western ridge/morphology will be able to score a coup and be that f- up. n/stream bipass stretching the field through the eastern Lakes on the 20th really should have dug more into a meridian trajectory given to the ens mean - and plus...it's creating a wave spacing in doing so that stresses believability for that reason alone.

most of this was based upon that but i'm frankly getting annoyed that the models are attempting that without consequence. heh. maybe it's a cc thing... haha

usually, these index correction events ( h. archambaultian) don't come in duples. the gist of those bigger signals take place because the index(es) en masse change implies/installs a mass discontinuity and as that passes through the field, there is an equally handsomely large restoral requirement. boom. it's 'an event' followed by a period of rest. those duple things ... like dec 1996 for example. those are more at sub-index scaled. they are not occurring because of a large mass field disruption and restoring requirement at those large scales, so they are not for huge mechanical forcing to occur.

oh, i suggest there's still open question as to whether or not we're seeing one or the other, not both, Will. the western ridge is improved, but the operational version of that is less amplified than the ens mean. that is not typical at this range of D7-10...usually, the ens means are the normalizing version at extended leads, as obviously they incorporate the greater variance on both sides ...etc.. the short of this is that the gfs' amplitude in the west - should that improve toward the ens, than the lead system slows down and more phasing transpires...and that probably tosses the two sys in 4 day idea in lieu of one dominant in that case. which could be either the 20th or the 23rdish there's still plenty of time to work this stuff out at 200 hours.

depends what we want to define as the 'the boston' area back in 2002 i believe there was a ne regional/coastal biggie

man, that ggem 12z run was a monster. it's a mix to rain event for most, ...thus, known contribution sources are about to swoop in, drop trow', and hang their own bomb on the effort, but the magnitude both spatially and in depth of that cyclone tunneling up the hudson like that is probably among the deepest in history to have taken that route. what's happening in that solution is that the model is attempting to more proficiently phase, but in not quite doing so proficiently enough, the low gets foisted out ahead. there's also less +pp situ n comparing other guidance/run cycles... just another hour in the saga I suppose. but one should appreciated this beast, meteorologically

that is amazing ...

yeah, 2010 was an amazing dec - we are not there ..yet. obviously. but maybe we can end up there if perhaps skewed timing-wise between late dec and jan ? just conjecture - i remember making a run at my personal all-time snow pack depth of 36" in 2010 ... i've seen that now 3 times, including and since 1995/'96 the only time 36" was beaten was 2015, when between that 4th and 5th event we nicked 40" ! but in 2010 i measured 35.5" as an average when i was geeking out ...

well yeah. as is? of course... we toss everything. the usage is a point of principle and exposing where the emergence should be. which btw, i still feel the 20th -23rd is the hot period within the 17-24th in general. by the way ... the gaga range suggests we reload between xmas and ny.

mmm yeah i get it, but this winter seems more like a front loaded one - if perhaps still mutilated by cc in a way ... but that's what it is. it's still different than getting those weird late october and november one shot deals that didn't really come in the same mise en science/appeal. lol. that's obviously about as subjective an opinion as there could ever be biased so ... not something i want to get my ears pinned back over or whatever. i just get the impression of (season committed to a winter hemisphere + cc quotient)/2 = still able to represent

heh, that cfs was ginormous ... this is raging from ne va to d.e.m while this low goes down to the low 980s, from this position to the gom - i mean that's a wow run. we've prooobably entered the eye-candy range on this threat assessment effort. which means ... every couple of other runs or so some model will purify the extent of the potential but obviously ... constraining one's wits and wants within the confines of conservatism ... oh who am I kidding of this group! seriously though, it's been maybe 10 years or more (?) since we could have fun on this side of xmas. at least we got that goin' for us

06z gefs abruptly condenses the signal comparing to previous cycles, which were far more dispersed - altho did hint. this below is a nice emergence for a 200+ range ... this is also not too dissimilar to the 00z euro but of the two ensemble means, the 06z gefs mean was the louder beacon. what both have in common that i really like for this range, is the continental high pressure parked over the dekotas/np region. that's a pretty common fixture in climo for setting the stage and/or in situ to events around the ec

not to be a douche but I did outline why the wind was less likely to materialize yesterday. i'm actually seeing this a better rain producer than modeled. i may not be right about this particular observation but that's what this looks like at a glance as far as in-bucket

perhaps an inferior product ...don't know, but this from the grand rapids, mi office is one i like, too https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=grr

something we haven't seen in recent years ( really ..) re the mjo... the phase space may actually be in constructive interference around the nw quad of the rmm that's usually a prelude to a cold americas ... in this case timing post xmas. i find it interesting that we're getting to this look prior to the mjo contribution ... but, as we've ( or "I" rather ) have emphasized int he past, the mjo is a constructive or destructive interference mechanism, not a pattern driver. if that were not enough... there's a gfs modeled hot plume intrusion at high altitudes amid the polar stratosphere - long way before knowing if that's a down welling forcer though. any cold dividends to mid latitude wouldn't be until until later on in the winter - if so

ha ... love the suggestion for repetitious cycling ...but that's way off

higher than median confidence about it in my perspective at this point ...this will turn out largely to have been another success in extended/long lead signal determination... this doesn't do much - yet - for those seeking a dose drip, i know. ha! but steadily ... the numbers of individual operational run cycles finally biting on the canonical synoptic construct has been getting more frequent - they are converging on the advertisement. it lends to said confidence... it's not like these are throwing out nice patterns and/or embedded events in an antecedent dearth of signal - that's the key this 12z gfs really can't get any better from this range in term of the 500mb evolution leading up to this chart and then thru the interval and it's spot on. i don't have a problem anymore with the idea of spending time ferreting out objects in time. it's noted the ggem has a continuity with the +pnap more than less like below.

oh ... 'wet cold' is the absolutely pinnacle in 'abysmality' ( probably not a word but should be ...) it's part in parcel as to why spring in new england is straight from satan's heart and shouldn't actually exist in reality. heh. mean, soon as i clear a million ... buying a bug-out home option somewhere else, and will automatically just f'n leave on or about march 15 and not return until the pattern has convincing pulled the bd dildo out for that season...usually early may but with caution - i'll take a 10 f white out choking snow rates before a 35 f rain. you can actually stay relatively dry in the former because snow takes time for snow particles to change phase states, and also ...the cold dps evaporate whatever tries to enter water really fast... that's why snow "seems" drier than rain ...because it is. cold wet sucks life energy out of you. there's a reason why people that slip into the n. atlantic have 3 minutes to live.

this is pretty cool... logan has a nw wind at 3 kts at 39 f. brockton, 12 or so miles as the crow flies? not far away. they are 58 f with a s wind