Typhoon Tip

68 to 70 popping up along the Pike 53-55 along rt 2 fuggin one stubborn ass wedge job just noticing now the day glow is rising out the windows... we may get some partial ceiling lift/sky lights going now.

do you think those kinds of tornadoes might be assisted by some sort of raging synoptic forcing

heh a.c. on tomorrow? unless one lives in some special glowing circumstance like a shit apartment a mere wall away from a steam cleaning outfit ... turning on the ac tomorrow smacks as fulfilling a narrative

i wonder if it is 60 up on top of mt monadnock https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

mmm i hope so. believe me. as someone that's turned to the dark side and hates and despises winter now ( unless there's an actual reason to like it, like a snow storm that all but cant happen here now despite everyone's ideas on reality - hopefully that pisses people off reading that ), i hope it is 72 f all the time. buuuuut since the no winter scenario is more likely going to express as 40 to 50 f wedge jobs we're left to dream. lol seriously though, the ens means suggest above normal is favorable, but these oper models, all of them, are running out and finding reasons to not expand within the telecon suggested potential -

that should be a really cold morning this sunday. that kind of slow approach polar high stemming any wind down to ideal decoupling, just after a fresh insert of chilly caa at this time of year? it'll cold shock strip the remaining leaves off the trees and rim smaller ponds with their first ice of the season in that NAM look.

it is interesting that that model error is all but entirely dependable though. i think it's just the warm side of the same error tendency, where the models are some 20 to 30% too amplified with cyclone patterning - in principle. perhaps in this case, the outlooks allow for unperturbed blooming ridge nodes because their not 'seeing' the physical limitations yet.

be that as it may re magnitude ...it's a short stay. sort of a shirk on the original modeled ideas from last week. whittled to a briefer visit at both ends, which is rather classic for this 'least excuse imagined to keep it chillier than originally modeled synoptic' region of the planet. this is often what happens in apr/may warm ups at that end. it's circa some d9+ or whatever and the charts have 3 days of bloom forcing balm. and over time ... 20 hours having been robbed for by a front side retarding warm front passage. meanwhile, the cold front's been speeding up by 21.3 minute amts per every run spanning those 9 days until it's cut in by almost 30 hours total on that side. what was 3 days is now shortened by 50 hours - the whole time, the jaggov god of weather modeling thought we didn't see what the asshole was up to. hahaha

yeah, i added a late edit to that op ed there... not you or any one in particular, but i do suspect there is a growing kind of misconception related to so called 'marine heat waves' forcing patterns. almost like they have a spontaneity to their arrival, ...then the atmosphere is motivated by their occurrence. mm not really. but in fairness, i may be assigning that fallacy - it just comes off/"seems" like the former notion is lurking when these tweets or x's or whatever are re-posting about target causes like that. it's plausibly imaginative to suspect there may be feed-backs later on, as the thermal sources perhap breach some thermodynamic (bulk) threshold. but the ocean, particularly at middle latitude mixing circumstance ... isn't realistically going to just burst a thermal resonance out of nowhere, whereby we can conveniently find a silver bullet there.

partially agree. not sure the exact physical/causal root of the current distribution of anomalies of the hemispheric-scaled atmosphere can be 'directly' attributable to the pac sst observation like that. as i've mentioned before, and most credible sources know this to be true ... there is a longer termed, quasi coupled relationship between the ss stressing wind patterns, and sst anomaly distribution in the top most layer. it's an emergent state due to persistence in that relationship. it may in fact be more useful (indirect) as a means to expose where those stressing tendencies have been ...and from that, work backward ( so to speak) in determining the basal pattern construct(s). so that's the partial agreeing for me. i think there may be a slight and/or growing kind of misconception that these so called 'marine heat waves' have a spontaneity to their arrival, that the atmosphere is then motivated by their occurrence. it's plausibly imaginative to suspect there may be feed-backs later on, as the thermal sources perhap breach some thermodynamic (bulk) threshold.

starting out wedged here for that matter. fog/cool/mist misery looks 0 like the modeled synoptics blasting a warm boundary through with light wsw by now. of course wpc has the warm front thru the region too, which only adds mockery to the face smacking... this ...this is what winter may be like folks. eventually, this cc shit's going to demo for you that it is real whether you wanna believe it or not. but the sun at this time of year is just too feeble to lend a hand. in mid apr, this gossamer sfc to 1200' of sewer air would be thermally annihilated by 9:30 but this twilight end of solar calendar? heh, it's like it may as well have not risen at all.

yeah .. kinda why i was careful to use ‘correlating’ as in ongoing. implicitly, maybe since the warm anomaly showed up there’s also a surrounding atmospheric echo

I wonder if Fuji snow is correlating with the wpac warm anomaly “Japan’s iconic Mount Fuji has yet to see snow this season, breaking a 130-year record” -cnn

I think that 95+ in oklahoma was staggering. it broke previous records by like 5 to 7 deg

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-bone-dry-october.html "...Now it's almost 50% and growing, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That fits the definition of "flash drought," which is different than normal slowly developing dry spells, said U.S. Department of Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey, a drought monitor author. A study last year showed that a warming world from the burning of coal, oil and gas is causing more frequent and damaging flash droughts, such as a $30 billion one that hit America in 2012 and a devastating 2022 drought in China...."

impressively persistent -pnap extending through the 1st 2 weeks of nov in guidance pure experience … novies tend to be low amplitude +pnap. interesting

I think the science would find that the polarward shift in the zonal-mean zonal wind is occurring in both hemispheres everywhere …

that's one of the more impressive warm frontal events i've seen depicted on a modeled chart series in quite some time. .. perhaps going back to that april 2010 one that sent mid 40s to mid 80s in 24 hours - the only difference between tomorrow and wednesday is that we don't have april insolation to work with. so perhaps mid 40s 10am tomorrow to 77 at 21z wednesday will have to do to get the sensible point across... as far high t's on wed, preeetty sure machine numbers will labor and fail to rise to actuals with their climo dead weight. but the synoptic warm front is every bit as impressive.

it's coming... doesn't help our life times, no but some 100(s) years off, provided we get around this Fermi Paradox crap in the foreground, there is a technological destiny of what we might now consider exotic visions, reality only attainable by those who looked beyond the ability to fly; those future benefactors of our toil and discoveries that parlayed newer evolved wonders. this kind of concern will be like when we say, imagine what it was to live before there was electricity. 'they had to suffer the night.' and the fruits of such a future is probably one where work ( if there is such a thing ..>), leisure, and living, can happen anywhere and still be home for supper.

oh i know how it works. but dark by 4:30 sucks no matter how we cut up the day. i think what we need is a weird shaped planet that when it rotates ...it's 30 hours on the sun side and 5 hours on the night. haha brian was just saying that some people that's fine. of those i happen to know, most don't like it. but yeah, there's a practical reason for wanting early light. i wouldn't want my kids waiting for the bus in the night just being one of those. ...etc

i bet you're not the minority .. .about half the pop has to be up by 7 - i think i actually read that specific demographic once lol. i was thinking about this at the gym - cuz what i'm doing there is so vastly interesting, otherwise... and i was actually wondering if my bachelor lifestyle ( work remotely too - ) is kind of the minority actually. so yeah which ever

meh.. .it's only 45 or so days ... then it starts going the other way pretty quick it's better than a 6 whole months of lost evening light to me but to each is his own i guess.

you didn't ask but ...my passion for winter is gone - maybe an age thing. maybe a john thing. i dunno. but the only thing that keeps me coming back at all any more is that i still am fascinating by winter storms. but ... i'm fascinated with any kind of storm frankly. if it were bombastically warm all winter long with repeating thunderstorm outbreaks and cbs rolling the tropopauses i'd be just as amused as if there were a stem wound block island bomb. doesn't matter which. it's no longer a winter thing or summer thing.. .it's just don't be fuckin bored thing. zip tolerance or joy for the anticipation of no light and extended wind strung winters of cc glory that can't produce because of shearing and are thus brown earthers

i realize some of you want it dark or when not ... blue tinted light encased in snow with with 44 mins of daylight, followed by eternal cryo night when not a sideways blizzard and all... but, here it is just 3:30 pm and the sun is tickling the western tree line. shadows are 20 foot plus ..and I'm thinking jesus christ in a week we gotta lose even another hour off this life support solar. i dunno. the older i get, the more i wish they just leave the clocks in the summer mode.

It's leaving a lot on the table imho - but, no argument, it's -pnap base .. sending warm heights n over the e continental mid latitudes in general. it's really just the n stream. this is probably not true, but it seems to me sometimes like that the model's error correcting to force seasonal change ...so it decouples the 'aa' phase of the hemisphere, falsely creating the 'ab' phase - when the n/s streams are more than less in sync is aa and vice versa may just be premature but real. there is a likely +pna out there toward mid novie. it's like it's clicking the n stream into that configuration and decapitating the southern wave number