Kevin Reilly

I probably should have said the Walt Whitman!

90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out. I’m not staying up for the Euro. Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!! I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen.

This is what I said at 10 on another site: I hate Miller B storms I have seen us get screwed many times!!! I’m still concerned about a progressive flow that doesn’t slow the storm down to develop or a combo progressive flat zonal flow it can still happen. I think IF this were to happen we start seeing a backwards trend starting at 0z into 12z tomorrow. The big runs start Friday IMO. sounds like the primary is too far north and block doesn’t hold the warming off the ocean and south welp it’s probably the likely out come now. I never trust storms rolling off the Pacific and cruising across the country towards a block that’s lifting out. Opens the door to the warm surge!!

It may be right too?? These models may be showing the block breaking down the flow too progressive and the storm develops too late and gets whisked out to sea. It is plausible.

I bet the Euro lies between the GFS and Ukie and Canadian just a hunch.

Yep agreed mainly sleet probably and graupel. Wonder if there would be convective bursts you can tell I can’t wait for the high resolution dynamical models. I’m holding my expectations for now in check.

Any worry about warm air surging in from the SE ocean water temps about 60 miles out pretty toasty. I mean the storm is sitting there with an easterly component and the high up north is losing its grip as the block breaks down. If I am Delaware River east and southeast this screams warm air off the Atlantic with a changeover.

The new normal for winters

Lol it is a comeback winter all last year at PHL 0.7” we got 6.3 and 2 traces so far! Yes, I know I know not what we want! We want more and seasonal norms are 19.0-22”

Wouldn't it be something if Dr. No Trends north with the TPV up north too like the CMC and all the other modes at 0z tonight adjust everything north it may happen?

To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina.., but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast. Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach. Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast. Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal.

Wondering how much though is sleet vs snow?

Heat Island Effect / Global Warming / Climate Change rule our winters now welcome.

Sleet

Lol well that would in effect ruin the entire run as storms strength movement and baroclinic zones affect each other.

In the GEFS we trust!! It’s been solid No?

Sounds like an early March Storm

And we are usually cold in a -AO -NAO set up wonder why that is?

Like Toy Story heading into the inferno incinerator.

This is still pretty good at this lead. What do I take away the promised timeframe is here and we track that’s about it for now. What else could we want over the last year?

You aren’t kidding!!! Think we got something this time the pattern looks to go classic appetizer then big dog off a block!

Look north there is a 1043 high coming on down too. Like Ralph says Woof!! This storm has Big Dog written all over it classic following the baroclinic zone left behind from Tuesday’s storm and bang!!

The magic spot for this scenario up here in NE Maryland extreme southern Pa is that primary low to stop within 50 miles of Elkins West Virginia. The NAM illustrates this perfectly then has that east west norlun trough as the weak primary is long gone.

The storm Thursday to Friday I think is further North and west and will have heights building out in front. Thinking the SE ridge bumps this north to about Ocean City Maryland then moves east-northeast from there in response to the 50/50 block up north. This has lots of potential.

8.2” that day with temps 27-30