Kevin Reilly

You aren’t kidding!!! Think we got something this time the pattern looks to go classic appetizer then big dog off a block!

Look north there is a 1043 high coming on down too. Like Ralph says Woof!! This storm has Big Dog written all over it classic following the baroclinic zone left behind from Tuesday’s storm and bang!!

The magic spot for this scenario up here in NE Maryland extreme southern Pa is that primary low to stop within 50 miles of Elkins West Virginia. The NAM illustrates this perfectly then has that east west norlun trough as the weak primary is long gone.

The storm Thursday to Friday I think is further North and west and will have heights building out in front. Thinking the SE ridge bumps this north to about Ocean City Maryland then moves east-northeast from there in response to the 50/50 block up north. This has lots of potential.

8.2” that day with temps 27-30

I bet that map isn’t snow but sleet.

Damm good pizza too for 5 bucks pass it every day Ralph!

Looking at this set up I’m thinking snow to sleet to rain down here in Delaware County take the 2-4” and run hopefully? Even north nothing is going to stop the warming aloft sleet will take over. I also think some of these snowfall maps are showing the sleet issue.

This thing is going to wiggle around still but I’m okay with what we have to track!!

Oh it pulled wave 2 north alright! Down here in Delaware County sloppy snow 2-4” maybe??? Take and run because rain is 40 miles south and zip from wave 2 which is crushed 650-780 miles to our south

That’s ridiculously erratic!!! This thing is all over the place like guiding in an out of control plane.

Picked up a trace of snow here in Media Pa 13 miles west southwest of Philadelphia at 6:15 am 34 when it snowed. Just north of here .75” that’s it. Partly Sunny 34 now.

Picked up a trace of snow here in Media Pa 13 miles west southwest of Philadelphia at 6:15 am 34 when it snowed. Just north of here .75” that’s it. Partly Sunny 34 now.

Clearly showing the blocking NE of Baltimore

Here’s are only things we know: 1. The sun angle is increasing every day. 2. We are gaining 1-3 minutes of day light. 3. Ocean water temps are still above normal where they have been for the past 5-10 years.

Speed up that 1032 high up north and you got something big

Well one thing for sure is from that snowfall map you can see there is a split flow northern branch and southern branch of the jet stream.

It's just not that the oceans are warming over time. The largest body of water on Earth is the Pacific Ocean and its warmth is overwhelming the North American climate system. While you have blocking like a -EPO, -AO, -NAO you would think it would be very cold and forcing cold out of Canada, but reality is that we instead get the relative warmth off the Pacific Ocean not allowing the normal cooling effects from land and radiational cooling. Like you said though Arctic ice melt is also probably at play as well and that is melting because the lower latitudes are on fire along with the oceans too.

Also to piggy back the Pacific has now ruined our winters now for the past few years with overwhelming our entire North American Continent with relative warmth no matter the state of El Niño or La Niña states. Could it be our warming Earth? Could it be dumping worldwide warmth into our oceans which is changing the overall climate system? It takes longer to warm the oceans and cool them down hence winters in some areas are shorter and shorter windows to produce what we want snow! I have honestly not seen too many times where you have a -epo, -ao, -Nao and can’t find cold air?? Temperature wise we are above normal for January again. Just frustrating to see nothing even in a suppose good look that the Pacific overwhelms anyway. Now that I said all of this it will snow lol?

Well we are basically tracking blocking with zero cold air makes you wonder what’s going on? Guess the cold air is on the other side of the poles.

That got “real fast” lol

It’s very heavy obvious the models are having a very difficult time tracking the short waves and timing coming off of two separate streams and strengthening blocking with arctic air possibly waiting in the wings.

I agree with what you are saying! Temps day and night are remarkably stable not much of a variation. We do need a better baroclinic zone and temperature gradient to develop those all important coastal fronts that east coast storms love to feed off of the gradient and whatever warmer ocean temps may be near by but we also need the cold not this modified suedo that we currently have.

Hmm how about help from a southeast ridge to bump the storm up the coast? The southeast ridge isn’t just going to disappear from flexing its muscles. Thoughts?