Kevin Reilly

Everything has a late season feel to it up here. The weather up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has been nothing resembling August. The trees up here have been changing colors now for weeks and it is not drought related. We have only touched 90 degrees twice the entire month. Honestly there has been a NW, N, or NNE, NE flow up here since basically the fronts have never stopped coming. It should be really interesting to see what happens September to March.

What is amazing to me is that last night at 10:05 our time Madison Wisconsin had a heat index of 105 degrees we were sitting at 69 degrees at the same time. The pattern is well pretty amazing! I have only had 2 90-degree days here in August so far and it barely hit 90 too during those days. I cannot wait to see what this pattern looks like in 3-4 months. We will either have very very cold snow or all the heat across the country and the waters just bleeds out and we see 60s and 50s with rain.

I could see a scenario where Hurricane Franklin passes well offshore 175-400 miles offshore and holds up the cold front along the east coast to allow periods of heavy rain with a wave of low pressure running up along it. Euro and Canadian camps bring a tropical system up the eastern Gulf of Mexico and we will have to wait and see what happens with that.

I would say yes to this because typically there are many upper-level lows and shear during El Nino years, right?

How was it scary?

Umm don't forget about the Ravens too!

How is this looking on the 18z GFS? Guess it didn't latch onto a potential vorticity?

Fort Myers Beach is 94 crazy warmth and it is not local!

They are aware as they should every year. My friend lives in Cape Coral and Sanibel ground zero from Ian last year. Thank goodness it is only one run but definitely need to keep tabs with 92-97 water temps it is a powder keg. The only thing the models do for me right now is tell me that the conditions for tropical cyclone development is improving, Saharan Dust is currently diminishing, water temps are hot, but all of the models are showing different solutions which will be evident run to run especially 200+ hours out.

So, looks like Hilary has already peaked at 939 mb but that was an estimate from satellite imagery. Now with that said Hilary will not intensify any further moving NW into dry air, cooler waters, and eventual shear. It will just maintain then slowly start weakening over the next 24-36 hours.

Looking at the water vapor map I would say peak intensity is over the next 24-36 hours then Hilary should move into an awful lot of dry air to the north as it moves in that direction unless it gets pulled up into the moisture evenelope.

Yea fire season has been suppressed north way north!

Ratings at it's best1! However tropical storm is not out of the question with 8-12" of rain now that is not ratings but a possibility, I am sure that would be interesting for them out there in all of southern California.

Had 1.10" this morning between 3:30 and 4:00 am no lightning just very heavy rain I mean we were hammered by flooding rains. I am guessing that was the front but according to all weather outlets last night all rain was to come to an end at midnight last night. This front is unlike the others it's having a hard time clearing the coast. Looks like the Bermuda High is fighting back for the first time this summer. Now with that said above there seems to be some subtle changes that may become major changes allowing for a big uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic we shall monitor the East and Gulf Coasts. I guess you have to include the West Coast too. Seems a Pacific Hurricane wants to pay a visit to Southern California next week that would be something. Models say stay tuned.

Umm check out the 18z GFS run lol tropics city!

Think that must be right with the front itself winds here in Media just shifted due to frontal passage.

Zippo here Mostly Cloudy 86 Humidity 54% dewpoint 73 Thunderheads Well to the East shows the stuff in New Jersey moving NE looks weak though.

The Severe Thunderstorm watch is like a Winter Storm Watch Philly South and East in the Winter! I doubt we see much definitely south and east stuff Delaware and South Jersey. I am not expecting much here in Media, Delaware County.

A weather outlet had 76 degree dewpoints at the airport at 11 pm. I mean they were off by 10 degrees on the dewpoint. I was sitting at 61 dewpoint at 10:30 pm. That's like not even close.

Local News had dewpoints in the 72-76 range for tonight most of the area where is that at???

I think that would be a warm front pushing NNE the main low is leaving Ohio and moving into Western PA.

There appears to even be a weak low now off the west coast pf Florida not far off of Sarasota too much shear from the Northeast at the moment.

Looks like a mesoscale low leaving Altoona moving ESE very quickly towards Harrisburg definitely severe weather with that pretty good-looking hook.

The storm south of Pittsburgh looks rough and the one moving quickly towards Altoona, PA

This is incredible how many confirmed tornadoes have we had in the northern Mid Atlantic VA, MD, PA, NJ, DE. This has been a repeating theme all the way back to April.