Kevin Reilly

On my car thermometer it was 93 leaving the Phillies game at 10:20 PM. In regard to rain the total here in Media is 1.87" since July 4th.

Yep, but what happens right along the beaches doesn't always tell the whole story. I would love to know consistently what the ocean water temps are say 35 to 65 miles offshore then because that would tell the whole story. All I know is that in my lifetime I have never seen a report as high as 84.7 at ACY that's pretty incredible (I am 48 just for the record and have followed these things since I was say oh 8 years old.) As we all know too around here whether it is an approaching hurricane, nor'easter development, or the rain snow line come winter the ocean temperatures play a very critical role I-95 corridor north and west. Oh, by the way I truly appreciate your data analysis from Natmeal Township.

Don't forget about extended fall to Christmas.

Yep, drought induced fall many locations especially here just north of the Mason Dixon Line points North and East. Hey at least the ocean water temps at Atlantic City made it to 84.7 degrees the other morning.

I will take the Euro for what it's worth. Two days ago the Euro showed not too much of anything. Over the past days we have known that these systems will not really develop prior to 60 west and well at hour 200-240 here we are. No model beyond 200 hours has intensity of a tropical system down let alone 10 hours ask those in Punta Gorda in SW Florida in 2004 with Hurricane Charley.

As of this morning ACY broke a record ocean water temperature was 84.7!!

ACY ocean water temp 84.7 that’s the warmest in my lifetime wow!!!

I was just going to comment on this once we hit August 31st through the first week of September it is total chaos lows everywhere.

In my opinion teleconnection indicators are worthless if the system is compromised by warming air temperatures and warming water temperatures over time and this process may also be speeding up a bit. On a side note, Atlantic City NJ water temps August 1st was 58 degrees at the beaches last 24 hours we have seen a peak to 83.4 degrees these are just wild swings overall the water is warming which may cause teleconnections to be way off.

That’s an upper level low doubt that develops. Not too little it’s a pretty large upper level low which prevents development.

What are the correlations of 0 August activity when it comes to La Nina or El Nino years? Is it possible we are in a weak to moderate El Nino year? I mean aren't La Nina years very active typically. To my untrained eye it appears that we are in more El Nino set up with all the upper air lows, shear caused by them, and dry Saharan dust. I have also been hearing about a Triple La Nina? Never heard of this? What affect does that have on this whole situation. Also, the super active eastern Pacific has fueled the idea of an east based El Nino to me. Thoughts?

NBC 10 has the ocean temp at ACY at 83???? Is that correct anyone confirm that?

Yep, agree think the development region area to focus on will be as it gets Puerto Rico Points west long way to go but we are closing in on nothing for August as the days dwindle away. There is also a string of upper air lows to contend with too as it heads westbound it's a real wait and see.

This is the upper air support for the offshore storm that is currently developing and waiting for the energy in the Carolinas to crank the low off the east coast.

That system off the East Coast early next week is more of mid latitude storm like a winter pattern doubt that becomes tropical and the 18z models have really backed off on that moving it further south and more of an ENE trajectory more out to sea from the Carolina coast. The models have been handling this very poorly at this time.

I am down in Orlando Florida had a lot of Saharan Dust here today milky fuzzy clouds and all skies were brown / orange this morning. Any thunderstorms were choked off. Looks like cooler up there temps near 80 and then a fairly wet patten showing up with an upper level low and surface low pressure developing in the Delmarva looks like a winter pattern within a weak El Nino. I will be back August 16th looks like the rain is August 13th at night to the 16th on and off, but it looked fairly significant.

I am in Orlando Florida and the Saharan Dust is well entrenched here. The skies were actually hazy brown there especially in the morning. During the afternoon the skies were milky, and the clouds were fuzzy looking. We had a few showers here today, but the towers were clearly being choked off from the Saharan Dust today. I am heading up to Charleston SC on Sunday by then the Sarhan dust will be punched Southeast ward by the cold front coming down crazy August cold front going to make it to Floriday by Sunday.

Media Delaware County picked up .50" of rain overnight some light drizzle mist falling still 69f

There has to be something wrong with my weather station here in Media Delaware County. I had a dewpoint of 61 now it's 60. There cannot be that much a of a difference?

Great pics! I can just feel the cold winds blowing over the top of those breaking waves!

We got it all right. 0.67" 40-45 mph winds easy and lightning.

Not a dam thing here in Media. It is really really dry down here in Delaware County. Here is my consolation prize I can see the anvil from the storm to our north in Bucks County. Sun has been out all day and is out full blast as we speak 87f humidity 50%

So, that would be August 28th chances are during that date over the past 25 years there has been a major hurricane in the Atlantic somewhere. I mean August 25th, 2005, there was Katrina just to name a few.

Water restrictions are already posted for areas around Trenton. This is a very dusty pattern and the hope of a tropical storm of any sort is very LOW zero support in this pattern for that unfortunately.

This reminds me of July 1988 that was pretty dry too.