Kevin Reilly

Yea this is a new development we shall see how real this is but we can score this way too and the snow becomes much more higher ratio too.

This is a result of lack of confluence and blocking up north and our reality. We needed that 984 to be 80 miles or better to the east of Ocean City Maryland. This would have worked but our block / confluence to the north and the high to the north did not allow for development of our low further south and the storm is allowed to just scat out without the cold locking in or reinforcing. This is a progressive look which is what we are stuck in unfortunately. At least our weather will not be boring get ready for roller coaster temps, snow to rain etc.

This time of year that should be snow the obvious problems: 1. High up north not cold enough and too weak 2. No blocking 3. Warm ocean 4. Weaker storm less dynamical 5. Too close to the coast 6. Air mass in front polar pacific air and marine air off the Atlantic As you see our problems are many.

The warm bodies of water just keep delivering! I am wondering if this pattern though we are in is anything like the winter of 1983??? Warm water bodies damed if you have them damed if you don't! Without the warm water you don't get the necessary gradient for big storms to develop and feed off of to give us the Big Dog! With warmer water and weak storms without proper blocking we are done!

I think we see models consolidate and come to consensus by 12z Thursday, January 4th. Thinking 1-3" DC to Baltimore ..... 2-4" PHL as someone said over 350 feet 3-6" beyond the fall line north and west 6-8" Typical 95 north and west deal... south and east of 95 good luck 1" or less. As I see it right now.

Media Delaware County Southeastern PA is 310' how will we do? I am thinking 2-4" / 3-5" before we flip.

Hopefully all 6z runs are off on a tangent. Maybe the mets did not put the data into the 6z runs and will feed the better data into 12z runs?

hmmm sampling anyone.. just raked up a bunch of crap from the Geese.

It will be on Thursday when it shows .50" to 1.00" of rain.. just kidding seriously Thursday 0z

if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm. I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing. I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north. My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities. My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west. I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast. Just my thinking right now.

I think Bob Chill said last night if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm. I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing. I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north. My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities. My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west. I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast. Just my thinking right now.

Yes, I do remember this point! I should have known back where models have storm lose it then bring it back 3-4 days prior typical scene. The swings are just so wild. I will say this if the models come back around again to 10-15" they will lock in.

What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable. The low is jumping all over the place. I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm??? It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase.

Yea, sorry the daffodils are already up along with my crocuses.

The trend is very clear last 12 hours north closer to coast weaker storm. I give to 0z tomorrow night. Bring on Euro!

Without a doubt look at the water vapor map.... check out Mexico the Southern Jet is ready!! Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

4-12" LOL quite a spread! I see he still likes Penn State!

This idea is something new that has been missing going on 3 years now. Welcome Back!!

The Big Storms Lock in Early!

Honestly up here in the northern Mid-Atlantic in my winter weather outlooks I do not retool until January 20th each year that is my magic date. This year I was going for 20-35" in Central Delaware County in Extreme SE PA.

Thye need to fly baby fly! All the way to Georgia and Florida! They know! Now the squirrels are going ape shit to stock up on nuts.

split the difference, but you forgot the Canadian.

Yep, I have seen them gathering nuts at a feverish pitch. How about the Commanders and Dallas game Sunday? Dallas might try to move the dam game lol, right? Also, mother nature loves January 7th and 8th during football season when it comes to snow.

I am sure this is going to bounce around a bit, but at least we have something to track. I will keep my expectations in check.

They know!