GaWx

I’ve been concerned about the Fayetteville/Ft Liberty area, especially for very heavy rain, as I have family there. Check out these 11PM conditions FORT LIBERTY HVY RAIN 77 75 94 NE16G22 29.64F VSB 1 FAYETTEVILLE RAIN 77 74 90 NE31G52 29.61F FOG Gusts to 52 at Fayetteville? Wow! Look out power outages!

I feel pretty confident that this CFS will end up too cold with this -1.4 ONI prog.

Down in Richmond Hill (SW of Savannah), a friend of mine said she had the heaviest rain of the entire storm with that orange band that came across just in the last hour!

I can’t answer since I don’t know. I don’t see a particular GFS ens control run.

However, the much more credible 12Z Euro ensemble (since this is 10 days out) has only ~50% that are safe recurves with regard to CONUS, which is a lower % than recent runs. The rest are either close or actually hit the US, mainly E coast vs Gulf. NC northward and the NE in particular looks to be potentially at risk as much as any US region on this run anyway.

The 12Z Euro has an AEW that crosses Hispaniola and then leads to a TC forming in the SE Bahamas by 216 and that turns NNE aiming for W of Bermuda at 240 as it recurves due to a trough.

Models have been consistently showing periods of heavy rain for much of well inland NC starting late tonight S areas going through tomorrow more areas and lingering into tomorrow night N areas. Meanwhile, I’ve been getting some moderate rain from showers rotating on the backside, well away from the center, with more to come this afternoon. So, will add some more to the 10.3” total that I had already received at last check.

12Z UKMET: Whereas the 0Z went in just NE of CHS, the 12Z is a little further NE ~midway between CHS and Georgetown. Then goes NNW to near Charlotte then turns NNE to inland in the NE US:TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 79.4WATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042024LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 07.08.2024 0 32.0N 79.4W 996 360000UTC 08.08.2024 12 32.6N 79.3W 995 321200UTC 08.08.2024 24 33.6N 79.5W 997 340000UTC 09.08.2024 36 34.7N 80.6W 999 321200UTC 09.08.2024 48 37.8N 79.9W 999 310000UTC 10.08.2024 60 42.2N 76.6W 996 341200UTC 10.08.2024 72 47.1N 70.2W 990 340000UTC 11.08.2024 84 49.7N 64.9W 989 371200UTC 11.08.2024 96 50.0N 57.0W 992 350000UTC 12.08.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING

I’ve gotten an additional 1.8” since ~6PM yesterday for an updated total so far of ~10.3”, easily the largest amount from a single event since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. There’s still on and off light rain falling and it’s breezy here on the backside. Here’s a SE Debby thread for those who haven’t seen it:

Further to the above’s 8.5”, I’ve gotten an additional 1.8” since ~6PM yesterday for an updated total so far of ~10.3”, easily the largest amount from a single event since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. There’s still on and off light rain falling and it’s breezy here on the backside. @buckeyefan1please pin this thread. Thanks.

Further to the above’s 8.5”, I’ve gotten an additional 1.8” since ~6PM yesterday for an updated total so far of ~10.3”, easily the largest amount from a single event since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. There’s still on and off light rain falling and it’s breezy here on the backside.

2024 has had 2 CONUS H landfalls by Aug 5th. Since 1851, there have been only 8 other seasons with 2+ by then with 7 of those 8 having exactly 2: Year: # of CONUS H LFs by 8/5; # for 8/6+; *ASO ENSO ONI -2024: 2; ?; ? -2020: 2; 4; -1.2 -2005: 2; 3; -0.0 -1959: 2; 1; -0.3 -1936: 2; 1; -0.3 -1934: 2; 1; -0.1 -1916: 2; 2; -1.4 -1909: 2; 3; -1.0 -1886: 4; 2; -0.8 -So, only one season (1886) since 1851 has had more CONUS H landfalls by 8/5 than 2024 -All 8 seasons had at least one 8/6+ CONUS H landfall with a range of 1-4 and an average of 2.1 -The 5 seasons with 2-4 8/6+ CONUS H landfalls (avg of 3) had an average -0.9 in ASO -The 3 seasons with only one 8/6+ H landfall averaged -0.2 in ASO -Most likely the 2024 ASO RONI will be much closer to -0.8 than to -0.2, which implies we may be headed to ~3 more CONUS H landfalls this season for a rare total of ~5, a scary thought; only 1886, 1893, 1985, 2004, 2005, and 2020 had 5+ (5-6) *ASO: used RONI for 1950+ and Webb ONI pre 1950

After that 4 day plunge of 0.5C, the OISST had quite the deadcat? bounce of nearly 0.4C:

As the Debby center moved to the SE offshore finally putting us on the backside, winds increased some and steady mainly moderate rains resumed about 1.5 hours ago after little rain since late last night. I had been at ~8.5” for the storm before this. We’ll see how much gets added from this and more to come tonight.

As the Debby center moved to the SE offshore finally putting us on the backside, winds picked up and steady mainly moderate rains resumed about 1.5 hours ago after little rain since late last night. I had been at ~8.5” for the storm before this. We’ll see how much gets added from this and more to come tonight.

I was asked about how it looks for Fort Liberty (formerly Ft. Brag) near Fayetteville. I told her that the heaviest rain would likely be Wed night and Thu with only mainly light rain prior to that. I also told her that Fri didn’t look too bad with it the storm mainly done by then. She said someone who lived there was visiting their mom in FL and had planned to return on Thu. I told her to tell him to come home on Fri instead. Does this sound about right? Any opinions would be appreciated.

Oops, I didn’t realize this thread was here. Here’s a repost of what I said an hour ago in the Aug obs thread: I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS. The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.

I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS. The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.

I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS. The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.

Yep, 14 runs to be exact through the 12Z. But the 12Z is slightly further N and the 6Z and even moreso the 12Z GEFS mean is further N than the operational. Also, fwiw being that it’s an inferior model, the 12Z JMA 72 adjusted back N with it in VA vs yesterday’s 12Z JMA 96 in E C GA. So, as of now the GFS will likely end up wrong, which history all along strongly suggested. 12Z UKMET: landfall Georgetown ~8AM Thu 8/8 and then heads N into VA (~50 miles E of 0Z) followed by NE turn to NE US though not as strong there as 0Z had 12Z Euro: landfall just S of Georgetown ~3AM Thu followed by NNW move into WC NC and then NE move into interior NE US, a little W of UKMET

I’m wild guessing another 4-6” over the next couple of days, which would give me an amazing storm total of ~12-14” should that occur. The only other storm/event likely comparable that I can recall would be Matthew of 2016. But it isn’t Debby, alone, that’s impacting the flooding. During the prior 2.5 weeks, I got a whopping ~10” from afternoon/evening or convection, about 2.5 times the normal for that period. So, I’m now ~18” just within the last 3 weeks and with several more inches likely from Debby, which should get me to >20” for just a 3 week period!

0Z 8/6 UKMET is finally out: LF Georgetown, then goes to Charlotte but then turns NE and strengthens back down to 990 mb and ends in N Maine. I’ve continued to get on and off heavy bands of rainfall the last few hours along with a few gusts likely as high as 40-45, about the strongest here so far for Debby. I believe I’ve now exceeded 8” for this storm (similar to KSAV) with that during just the last 18 hours though street flooding isn’t quite as bad as before due to an earlier lull in the heavy rain. I bet the drainage canals are full!

0Z Euro: again further SW with a LF barely N of CHS. This is the first run since the 12Z 8/3 run that didn’t hit Georgetown or further north. The 0Z UKMET seems to be running very late.

Believe it or not, the 0Z GFS is the 12th in a row that is coming back W into GA on THU AM! Also, after yesterday’s 6Z GEFS was the first run in days to have more members finally getting away from that kind of thing, the last 3 runs have come back S again. The GFS suite actually has had a little bit of company since 12Z today: the 12Z JMA and now 0Z JMA are also stalling and then coming W into lower SC. No JMA had done that in the prior days.

What a mess here from TS Debby! There had been a tornado warning that expired an hour ago. Much of the yard and entire patio is covered with standing water. Street flooded. Now this and there’s a very long ways to go before the on and off heavy rain ends. And the strong winds haven’t even got here yet though they’re now picking up. Also Tornado watch extended til 1AM:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... LONG COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1130 PM EDT. * AT 532 PM EDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS, URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS, STREETS AND UNDERPASSES. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE... HINESVILLE, SAVANNAH, POOLER, BLUFFTON, RICHMOND HILL, REIDSVILLE, GLENNVILLE, TYBEE ISLAND, CLAXTON, PEMBROKE AND DARIEN.