GaWx

Yaakov, Fwiw, the data driven April 2025 Euro forecast for 2025 has just a near normal CONUS risk vs an enhanced risk in the April of 2024 forecast for 2024: This was April of 2024: look at all of that red concentrated along the US coasts/in Gulf: Here’s April of 2025: no red…just mainly near normal (yellow): The Euro might be a bit underdone with just a near normal US risk, but the point is that the model clearly shows a significantly lower risk than it showed last year. And last year was a very bad year for the US in the Gulf/SE. I was personally heavily impacted by both Debby (flooding rains getting into my garage) and Helene (high winds leading to a multi-day power outage (longest since David of 45 years earlier) leading to loss of refrigerated/frozen food and miserable inside conditions), but this was nothing compared to what happened further west in GA, NW SC, and especially W NC from Helene as well as the severe impacts on FL from Helene and Milton. So, it not being nearly as bad this year wouldn’t be difficult. It will be interesting to see whether the May Euro outlook for 2025 is similar to April’s. The SE US/Gulf is especially due a quieter year as 2019 was the only fairly tranquil year since 2016! But Mother Nature doesn’t care about what’s due, which isn’t a forecast.

1. But the SSTs along the W coast are just a portion of the entire PDO calculation. Just looking at the W coast like you did seems more narrow to me. 2. The SSTs in 2014-5 being at the warmest on record (per what you said) aren’t surprising due to global warming. And again, the full PDO calculation also involves other areas.

1. Regarding the top bolded, there was a record strong El Niño ~2015 (per ONI) and a strong accompanying +PDO. However, the +PDO portion of the couplet wasn’t near a record: -2015 PDO: +0.9 This was similar to the strong El Niño/+PDO couplet of the late 1950s. But all of these years had a stronger +PDO: -1997 +1.3 -1993 +1.0 -1986 +1.0 -1987 +1.1 -1983 +1.2 -1941 +2.3 -1940 +1.8 -1936 +1.9 -1931 +1.0 -1926 +1.8 -1905 +1.4 -1904 +1.2 -1902 +1.2 2. Regarding the 2nd bolded section, that +PDO ended July of 2016. Then it went back and forth through June of 2017. So, I’m calling that 12 month period neutral. After that, I’m calling it overall modestly negative July of 2017 through 2019 before the strong -PDO took over. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

-I’m not concluding/predicting where the OHC will be come hurricane season. I’m just showing how it looks as of April 16th vs other years. -I’m showing the area east of the Caribbean because it was so incredibly warm last year and has cooled so much since then as JB has been emphasizing recently almost every day. -Indeed, the Caribbean and Gulf are also very important regarding OHC. They’ve also cooled though not as dramatically. The subtropics are also important though this section doesn’t have OHC for it as it is a tropical waters section. Cheers

Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024: https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

Your link doesn’t show anything. But check the image below out: The image below is the SST for each year 1982-2025 for the tropical Atlantic 10-20N, 20-60W. The black line is the 1991-2020 average, the red is 2023, orange is 2024, and blue is 2025 to date. Note how much cooler it is as of 4/27/2025 (near the 1991-2020 average) vs both 4/27/2023 and 4/27/2024! https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/tropATLsst.png

Chris, I see what you’re saying regarding the rapid changes but: 1) Why are you calling it a record +PDO in 2015? It was solidly positive and much higher than surrounding years, but it was nowhere near a record: -2015 PDO: +0.9 But: -1997 +1.3 -1993 +1.0 -1986 +1.0 -1987 +1.1 -1983 +1.2 -1941 +2.3 -1940 +1.8 -1936 +1.9 -1931 +1.0 -1926 +1.8 -1905 +1.4 -1904 +1.2 -1902 +1.2 **Edit: almost all of these were during and/or immediately adjacent to El Niño 2) The period 3/2014-7/2016 was no doubt a solid +PDO period with it averaging +1.0 surrounded by solid negative years. However, that was during a predominant El Niño period including a record strong Nino. To me this looks similar to 6/1957-1/1959, which also averaged +1.0 PDO, was surrounded by solid negative years, and was during a predominant El Niño period. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat @40/70 Benchmark

Tony, -After a cold winter, March was mild and all but one day Mar 24th through April 4th had 80s! The consistent BN chill didn’t restart til 4/17. From then through August, most dailies were BN! Mid May had a 3 day period with lows in the 40s. -1909-10 was the middle of a 3 year long La Niña. After that 3 year period came 1911-12, a moderate El Niño with several significant wintry precip events and a cold JF. -Sunspots: 1909-10 was coming off the 1906-7 peak of the prior cycle, which was one of the two weakest cycles since after the early 1800s Dalton Minimum. The next cycle that was about as weak wasn’t until the one with the very weak min in 2008-9! -Other Atlanta April measurable snows were 0.6” (4/4-5/1891), 0.2” (4/11/1918), and 1987 (4/3)(measurable northside but only T at KATL).

When was the last year that JB didn’t call for early season activity?

T, - DJF was cold at 3 BN. But M was way warmer than normal! A was near normal. - Only 0.3” of other SN fell that winter. - The 1.5” of 4/1910 was the snowiest month since 1/1908 and wasn’t exceeded til 1/1912!

Believe it or not, the latest measurable (and non-measurable for that matter) snowfall way down at Atlanta is also on April 25th! It was on 4/25/1910 and is what I consider to be the freakest wx event of any kind in recorded Atlanta history, which goes back to 1878-9. They got 1.5”! It wouldn’t surprise me if this was a 1 in 1,000 year event. It almost had to have been a very strong bowling ball-ish upper level low.

Wow, they’re very bullish! I wonder why. Whereas that’s notable per the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, we’re talking only the results of 3 seasons. That’s not a long track record. It remains to be seen how they do in 2025. Going that much above 2024 seems counterintuitive but we’ll see. I wasn’t familiar with Gary Lezak (former KC met.) til now. Do you or does anyone else know what he predicted in 2022 and 2023?

And even moreso -NAO on average has been a summer thing 2007-2023: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Indeed, while the MDR anomalies have continued cooling, the actual temp has actually warmed 0.2C since March 8th:

Check out how much the MDR anomaly has cooled per OISST over the last year: 1.5C/2.7F! That’s a 3 million sq mile area! The April ‘25 Euro forecast for ‘25 is substantially less active than the April ‘24 Euro forecast for ‘24 with a near 30 yr avg of 7.2H vs 10.9 a year ago: Regarding US threat level, the April ‘25 Euro forecast for ‘25 of near normal is substantially less threatening than the April ‘24 Euro forecast for ‘24 that showed enhanced threats (in red):

Thanks. Indeed, it has dropped a lot this month. By the way, today’s weekly EIA storage increase of 88 bcf was very bearish vs the average prediction from industry experts of ~+67, which contributed to today’s drop.

Why do y’all think the OISST anomaly for the Atlantic MDR (10-20N, 20-85W), which covers 3 million sq miles, has cooled 1.5C/2.7F during the last year? Why has it cooled 0.85C/1.5F during just the last 3 months? @chubbs

Looking back 115 years ago tomorrow, 4/25/1910, Atlanta had an absolutely amazing event: 1.5” of snow!!! The high on 4/25/1910 was only 39! After March 26th (going back to 1879), they have had highs below 40 only three times: 39 on 4/3/1987, 36 on 4/5/1891, and 39 on 4/25/1910. So, the 4/25/1910 very cold high really stands out in the record books for how late it is. This accumulating snow so late in April could easily be a once in several hundred year event and could even be a once in a thousand year event. The old Atlanta newspapers that I read (on microfiche at the public library) and copied forecasted rain and warmer temperatures on April 25th, not snow and colder. April 24th was 18 BN (high of 56 and low of 38) and they thought that that was to be the coldest day of the cold snap. So, this was a big surprise even to the meteorologists! Edit: It appears that even down at @dsaur’s location there was nearly 1”!!

I realize that. 1990-1 was quite mild. I even mentioned that in my subsequent post. He had no choice but to include it. But that doesn’t stop the 5 winter average from being quite cold (~-4). If the 5 winter average had not been cold, I seriously doubt that he would have even posted about the 2nd year La Nada analog so far in advance of next winter. His biggest problem is using 1991-2020 as climo for all 5. That makes these analogs average a solid cold -4, which is deceptive. It’s more like -2 using a more appropriate climo base as I said in the post you quoted.

-Don’t forget 1990-1. -I agree that 2014-5 is a 3rd year La Nada based on RONI even though the ONI is weak El Nino.

I worded that poorly. I should have said I followed his methodology. I just edited my original post. Yes, five is a small dataset. And of the 5, 1990-1 was mild. It’s easy to guess that JB is showing this because of his seemingly ever-present desire to forecast a cold NE US winter.

Yesterday, JB was already strongly hinting at a cold winter in the NE US and Midwest based on his expectation of it being the 2nd La Nada winter in a row. I follow his methodology, which is clearly explained. His analog 2nd year La Nada winters are 1960-1, 1967-8, 1990-1, 1993-4, and 2013-4. However, there are flaws in what he presented. -Even though 2024-5 was officially (i.e., per ONI) La Nada, it unlike his other 1st year La Nada winters in the dataset was clearly La Niña per RONI (it dipped all of the way to moderate Niña),which I think is more relevant. So, that disqualifies 2025-6 as potentially being a 2nd year La Nada from my perspective. -Somehow he left off the pretty cold winter of 1981-2, which clearly was a 2nd year La Nada per both ONI and RONI. -He included 1993-4. Although he’s right that that qualifies per ONI as a 2nd year La Nada, I’d exclude it because 1992-3 was a weak El Niño per RONI. -The biggest problem imho is that he uses 1991-2020, the warmest climo at the website, for his base climo for the entire dataset. That makes his analog map too cold considering that 1960-1 and 1967-8 shouldn't be using 1991-2020 as climo. Also, 1990-1 should use 1981-2010 for its climo. Even 1993-4, which I said I wouldn’t even include in the set, could arguably also more appropriately use 1981-2010 for its climo as 1993-4 is in the middle of that period. If it were me, I’d use 1951-2010 from the website’s choices for all of the years for the best balance rather than 1991-2020. So, this is JB’s map to try to predict 2025-6: centered near a quite cold -4 in NE/Midwest However, if I were to do it myself by accepting 2025-6 as a potential 2nd year La Nada winter, I’d get it centered near -2 for the NE/Midwest instead of -4: still chilly no doubt but with only half the anomaly that JB’s map has:

That’s exciting! I hope the experiments are successful.

Since that mid April IRI 3.4 projection model summary was released, the CFS 3.4 progs have cooled significantly. It had had (per what I bolded above) +0.62 in OND and was still rising. Now, based on the image below, OND is only ~+0.05. So, any chance that there had been for weak El Niño (though only small), which had been based on the +0.62 in OND, is even smaller by a good bit. I’m saying that as of now the chance for a weak El Niño has dropped to extremely low. I won’t say near zero yet only because it’s too early. But I’m probably at 5-10% at most. 4/22/25 Nino 3.4 CFS run: OND only +0.05 @jburnsplease pin this thread and unpin El Niño 2023-2024. That one is just a bit outdated.

@donsutherland1and others, This is from Joe Bastardi today. He’s totally convinced that that large amount of cooling in the Atlantic (20N to 20S) over the last year is due to a >50% drop of seismic activity in the “mid-ocean spreading zone” because the area of cooling surrounds a portion of the Atlantic part of that zone. Any comments?