GaWx

This will be a good test of Lezak and thus I feel it should be followed since you’ve been pushing him so hard. A potential positive thing I can say is that he may not be wishy washy. He said that a NC or SC hit is a likely target. I consider that an outright prediction even though he didn’t say it was a near certainty. Nothing can be a near certainty this far out. If it misses there and isn’t close, I’ll consider it a bust. If it were to hit there, I’d give him kudos for his prog. Edit: If it were to barely miss, I’d at least give him a pass. It will also be interesting to see how forthright he is should this prog end up busting. Would he downplay it/give excuses or would he be honest and call it a bust?

From Storm 2K regarding 6Z tropical models: peaks as a MH on 3 of 4 06z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin--- Model peak intensity ---HWRF = 944mb/112ktHMON = 979mb/95ktHAFS-A = 943mb/119ktHAFS-B = 939mb/121kt

The 0Z GFS and CMC are both very close to Bermuda. Edit: 0Z Euro avoids all land in the W basin with it going ~250 miles W of Bermuda.

0Z UKMET: recurves safely from Conus but further W at 70.3+…so, this would be good news for Bermuda, too: TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 39.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.08.2025 0 16.4N 39.2W 1008 31 1200UTC 13.08.2025 12 15.8N 41.9W 1008 27 0000UTC 14.08.2025 24 15.9N 44.1W 1008 27 1200UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.8N 47.1W 1008 28 0000UTC 15.08.2025 48 18.0N 50.2W 1009 30 1200UTC 15.08.2025 60 19.0N 53.8W 1007 32 0000UTC 16.08.2025 72 19.7N 57.3W 1005 31 1200UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.3N 60.3W 1003 33 0000UTC 17.08.2025 96 21.0N 62.9W 1001 38 1200UTC 17.08.2025 108 21.7N 65.6W 999 45 0000UTC 18.08.2025 120 22.7N 67.2W 998 43 1200UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.3W 996 45 0000UTC 19.08.2025 144 26.6N 69.4W 993 49 1200UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.6N 70.1W 989 48 0000UTC 20.08.2025 168 30.7N 70.3W 984 49

Credit to a poster at S2K for this. Note especially how strong 3 of them get (to MH strength): 18z hurricane models, in 126 hours (00z 8/18): HWRF: 955 mb, 104 kt, 21.7N 62.0W HMON: 954 mb, 103 kt, 22.2N 62.9W HAFS-A: 942 mb, 119 kt, 20.5N 65.6W HAFS-B: 972 mb, 78 kt, 21.1N 65.7W

@BarryStantonGBPAny update from the guru, Mr. Lezak? The last I saw from him was this incredibly bold call, a likely SC/NC target. Is he still targeting there? Thanks

That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3.

12Z JMA: Bermuda at 192

12Z UKMET: dips down to 16.4N vs 17.0N on 0Z; recurves at 68.7W vs 66.5W on 0Z; so still a safe recurve for Conus: TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 35.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.08.2025 0 17.3N 35.4W 1008 31 0000UTC 13.08.2025 12 16.7N 39.3W 1008 29 1200UTC 13.08.2025 24 16.4N 42.2W 1008 27 0000UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.7N 45.0W 1007 29 1200UTC 14.08.2025 48 17.6N 48.5W 1008 31 0000UTC 15.08.2025 60 18.6N 51.8W 1008 31 1200UTC 15.08.2025 72 19.8N 55.4W 1006 31 0000UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.7N 58.6W 1005 32 1200UTC 16.08.2025 96 21.6N 61.6W 1001 37 0000UTC 17.08.2025 108 22.3N 64.2W 998 44 1200UTC 17.08.2025 120 23.3N 66.3W 998 48 0000UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.8N 67.7W 996 42 1200UTC 18.08.2025 144 26.9N 68.6W 992 52 0000UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.8N 68.7W 988 48 1200UTC 19.08.2025 168 30.7N 68.0W 980 58

12Z Icon 168 hr 150 miles NNE of that ominous 0Z Icon 180 hr map. Has less ridging and is moving NW to NNW instead of NW to WNW.

As you posted, the 11AM position dropped from 5AM’s 17.4N to 17.2N. Also, the new track dips down to 16.5N tomorrow vs the prior advisory’s 17.0N: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 17.2N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.8N 39.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 42.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

- Followup to above: Per the 5AM advisory, Erin dropped back down slightly to 17.4N with a 265 degree heading. The new track has a low point of 17.0N tomorrow instead of 17.1N. The 17.0N will be a key latitudinal benchmark to compare to tomorrow. - The 6Z Icon at 120 is slightly W of that ominous looking for Conus 0Z run at 126. -The 6Z GFS is similar to the 0Z GFS and again goes just NW of Bermuda with a hard hit there. -The 6Z Euro 144 is barely SE of the 0Z Euro 150.

0Z Euro: still recurves well offshore the Conus but at 73W, which is significantly further W than the 69-70W of the prior 2 full runs.

The 0Z GFS hits Bermuda hard with the center just missing to the NW. 0Z CMC passes ~250 miles W of Bermuda.

0Z 8/12 UKMET: similar to 12Z with it recurving at 66.5W and threatening Bermuda: TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 31.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 12.08.2025 0 17.8N 31.2W 1010 29 1200UTC 12.08.2025 12 17.4N 35.3W 1008 31 0000UTC 13.08.2025 24 17.2N 39.3W 1008 30 1200UTC 13.08.2025 36 17.0N 42.6W 1007 29 0000UTC 14.08.2025 48 17.3N 45.3W 1008 29 1200UTC 14.08.2025 60 18.3N 49.0W 1008 29 0000UTC 15.08.2025 72 19.2N 52.1W 1008 28 1200UTC 15.08.2025 84 20.3N 55.5W 1008 33 0000UTC 16.08.2025 96 21.0N 58.8W 1007 34 1200UTC 16.08.2025 108 21.8N 61.0W 1004 43 0000UTC 17.08.2025 120 22.4N 63.8W 1002 43 1200UTC 17.08.2025 132 24.2N 65.6W 1000 45 0000UTC 18.08.2025 144 26.6N 66.5W 998 42 1200UTC 18.08.2025 156 28.6N 66.5W 995 43 0000UTC 19.08.2025 168 30.8N 65.6W 992 47

0Z Icon is a fair bit SW of the 12Z. The 168 is not only well SW of the 12Z 180, but it’s also still moving NW by WNW and isn’t headed N into a trough like it was on 12Z.

The good news in the short-term for the US is that Erin climbed slightly from 17.4N to 17.6N since the previous advisory or at 275 degrees vs a prog to stay at 17.4N/270 degrees. Maybe this is a sign that the latitude will be mainly maintained instead of losing much. We’ll see. Edit: But the NHC is still progging the low point of 17.1N on Wednesday morning. That will be one key benchmark to compare the actual track to.

I estimate I’ve gotten 33.85” during the last 90 days! May 14-31: 6.7” June 6.85” July 8.25” Aug 1-11: 12.05”! Last year I got 13.3” Aug 1-11, but that included a 3 day total of 10.9” from Debby. I never thought I’d be this close to 8/1-11/24 without a TC! My normal for May 14-Aug 11 is ~19.25” meaning I’ve gotten ~175% of normal! My backyard is like a very wet sponge wherever there’s no standing water. The mosquitos have been in heaven.

18Z GFS ensemble at 240: still heavily favors safe recurve from Conus though with some threatening Bermuda and Canada; but 6 of 30 (20%) are far to very far SW outliers, which is similar to the 12Z:

The 12Z JMA hits Bermuda directly.

I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the climo related to the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs today.

12Z Euro: best of both worlds with it well away from US and also~250 miles W of Bermuda:

12Z UKMET: further W than the 0Z’s recurve at 63.3W with a threat to Bermuda as it ends the run moving NNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.8N 35.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.08.2025 24 17.8N 35.1W 1008 30 0000UTC 13.08.2025 36 17.3N 39.1W 1007 30 1200UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.1N 42.2W 1006 28 0000UTC 14.08.2025 60 17.8N 44.6W 1007 29 1200UTC 14.08.2025 72 19.4N 48.1W 1007 32 0000UTC 15.08.2025 84 20.8N 51.7W 1008 31 1200UTC 15.08.2025 96 21.4N 55.0W 1007 30 0000UTC 16.08.2025 108 22.0N 57.9W 1006 34 1200UTC 16.08.2025 120 22.3N 60.2W 1003 43 0000UTC 17.08.2025 132 23.4N 62.8W 1002 44 1200UTC 17.08.2025 144 25.0N 64.3W 1001 47 0000UTC 18.08.2025 156 26.0N 65.4W 999 45 1200UTC 18.08.2025 168 27.5N 66.0W 998 50

Here we go again. Another batch with some heavy rain has just arrived from the south. Before this as of last night’s rains I had just made it to 12” MTD with none due to a tropical cyclone as we know. Edit: Good news was that this batch was short-lived and gave me only <0.1”.

Then this was in the forecast discussion this morning: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 612 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025 SYNOPSIS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC, WHILE WEAK TROUGHING FORMS INLAND. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEST TODAY AND REPLACE THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE LAST FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A PLUME RICH, TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS HOLDING IN THE 2.30-2.65". SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, PASSING BITS OF VORTICITY PROPAGATING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE BANDS/WAVES TO SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. and THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS SINCE FRIDAY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. ***SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS FOOT OF RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ALONE WHICH IS DOWNRIGHT INCREDIBLE FOR AUGUST OUTSIDE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.*** ————— I had been up to ~9.9” month to date through the period just before the rains returned at 11:30 PM last night. I don’t yet have my overnight total, but it was significant once again, quite possibly ~2”. I’ll update later. Edit: I had 2.1” from 11:30PM through the rest of the night (8/11 AM) bringing me to 12” MTD!