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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Have you seen the 0Z GEFS in week 2? It just about completely caved to the colder EPS!
  2. GaWx
    Today's Euro weeklies, which are an extension of today's 0Z EPS, vs the prior run are as was already known colder for the week March 6-13. They are about the same as the prior run for March 13-20. However, the week March 20-27 is actually warmer vs the prior run. So, whereas the prior run's coldest period was March 13-27, the new run's coldest period is March 6-20 (more specifically more like March 10-20). This is all fwiw and very much subject to change on the next run, of course.
  3. GaWx
    Indeed, I had just looked at it and agree that it is the coldest EPS run to date at 2m late in the run though it was slightly warmer than the prior run through about 288. It became slightly colder than the 0Z 312-348, making it the coldest run yet for 3/12-3. It is also colder at hours 288+ at 850 and at hours 276+ at H5. Needless to say, we have significant differences between the EPS and the GEFS/GEPS at 12Z as the EPS is colder earlier by 1-2 days per my eyeballs and has quite a bit lower H5. At H5 at RDU, the EPS gets down to 548 dm as of hour 282 (on 3/11 at 6Z) which is a notable 14 dm BN, and is the lowest H5 to date for then on any EPS. Here's the H5 trend for 6Z on 3/11: 2/25 12Z run: 565 2/26 0Z run: 560 2/26 12Z run: 560 2/27 0Z run: 552 2/27 12Z run: 548 vs 558 GEPS vs 564 GEFS Also, this EPS has the most wintry precip in the SE of any EPS yet March 10-12 vs no wintry precip of note on the GEFS/GEPS. Model war! The problem for those who prefer cold and thus prefer the EPS to be on the right track is that all of the models have been too cold on most days of this winter outside of late Dec. Is it going to finally be different this time?? One thing to keep in mind is that for the first time this winter there's the after effects of a combo of the mid Feb major SSW (which is only now starting to cause big changes in the troposphere, making it extra difficult for the models to handle) that dropped strat winds at 10 mb at 60N to -13 m/s and tomorrow's drop to a very impressive and rare -19 m/s. That is the lowest since Feb of 2018, which means an extremely weak SPV (makes it much easier than normal for cold to move down into the mid latitudes): Edit: Also, La Niña is about dead finally with last week's Nino SST anomaly up to -0.3 C.
  4. GaWx
    There's a big difference in the SE at H5 between the 12Z GEFS (weak ridge and NN) and the 0Z EPS (weak trough and 10 dm BN) as of March 11th. Will the 12Z EPS backtrack again to warmer? The odds favor it imo.
  5. GaWx
    And now today's 0Z EPS mean not only went back to a strong/large high in SW Canada on 3/7-8 like on the run from 24 hours ago, it has SE ridging unlike on any earlier EPS disappear on March 8th (the last AN SE day). There is none the rest of the run as BN temperatures take over, making it easily the coldest EPS yet for March 9th+ in the E US. This run will be the one used by the Weeklies later today. What will be notable is that the week Mar 6-13 will be significantly colder in the E US than what the prior Weeklies had. Will the 12Z run again backtrack? It certainly wouldn't surprise me if it does for the 2nd week in March since this run was so much different from prior runs.
  6. GaWx
    Although I'm not giving up yet due to inherent uncertainties that far out, I don't blame anyone who does based on how amazingly relentless the warmth has been overall this winter along with the related cold bias of the models. Other than a few days here and there, about the only time the model consensus wasn't too cold this winter was for the period 12/17-26, which was nailed well. From what I understand from several pro mets, the record warmth in the Maritime Continent of the W Pacific has a good bit to do with the unrelenting warmth/SE ridge of the last few years. This leads to a dominant Pacific flow similar to what it would be in the MC MJO phases regardless of the actual MJO phase, which also favors a SE ridge. Of course, the La Niña of the last 3 years is an important warmth favoring factor overall, too. Why the models can't ever seem to get a clue and handle this as opposed to so often being too cold even out just a few days in many cases is a mystery. Isn't the added ocean warmth an input in the model initializations?
  7. GaWx
    The 12Z EPS mean backed off a good bit from the prior EPS trend of a higher SLP peak in SW Canada for ~3/8. The 0Z had as mentioned a very impressive and rarely seen on day 10 of the EPS 1046 mb along with 20% of the members with a record high SW Canada SLP for March. The 12Z has only 1041 with increased troughing just off the west coast. This lead to lower SLP and thus not as cold in the Midwest.
  8. GaWx
    The trend of the EPS mean has been for higher SLPs in SW Canada ~March 8th from Arctic highs dropping down toward Montana/ND. The mean in the latest run has risen to well up into the 1040s, which is uncommonly high for 10 days out on a 51 member ensemble in March, especially when one realizes that the March record for SW Canada isn't that much higher than that (1053) as this image shows: About 20% of the 0Z EPS members are above that 1053 March record in SW Canada with a couple even way up at 1060+. As we get closer to March 8th, it will be interesting to see whether or not this trend of the mean toward a higher SLP continues. If so, that would increase the chance for a major cold plunge getting into the US ~March 9th-10th. Keep in mind that Arctic plunges are often under forecasted that far out in time by ensemble means. The trend on the EPS has also been toward a weakening of the SE ridge late in the runs. If this were to keep up, it would open the door for what potentially could be the coldest air for the SE since the late Dec historic plunge near or just after March 10th.
  9. GaWx
    The record highest daily minimum temperature for all of Feb was broken yesterday by 4 F at KATL (69 vs old Feb record of 65 set in 2018)! RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 0417 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2023 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA... A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 69 WAS SET AT ATLANTA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 63 SET IN 2022. THIS ALSO BREAKS THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGHEST FEBRUARY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE, WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY 65 SET ON FEB 21 IN 2018.
  10. GaWx
    The idea is that with a stronger cold signal that there would be a decent chance for at least one Arctic airmass to bring, say, a few days of highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s in much of NC along with sub 0C 850s on the coldest days. If RDU were to have a week averaging 5-7 BN as the WB Euro weekly map shows for midmonth, that would imply the coldest couple of days could average, say, ~15 BN (45 high/25 low kind of thing if there were full sunshine). That would be a cold enough airmass to allow for wintry precip at RDU if there were to be a storm with a favorable track.
  11. GaWx
    You never know with March though. In mid March of 2017, NYC actually had a colder week than any so far this winter (along with 9.7" of snow from two storms) and that month as a whole was only 4 BN! So, don't count out that kind of thing even though it is unlikely. Did you know that the day with the coldest normal for the Arctic north of 80N isn't til Feb 25th? Also, the coldest day there so far this winter was today! This doesn't mean that it is capable of getting anywhere near the coldest ever recorded in DJF. But it does mean that it is still capable of getting quite cold if the atmospheric mechanisms and nearby snowcover are in place: https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
  12. GaWx
    Yes, strongest cold signal vs normals for the respective weeks.
  13. GaWx
    No, I meant strongest cold signal of any March of 2023 week on the Euro Weeklies forecast to date. There have been 10 earlier runs since Jan 19th, which was the first run going into March. None of those 10 runs had even a single March week with this strong of a cold signal in the E US. I'll go even further. No single week in any of Jan, Feb, or March of 2023 on any Weeklies run back to Jan 5th (14 runs excluding today's) has had as strong a cold signal (vs normal of course) for the E US as today's for March 13-20 with today's run for March 20-27 and last week's for March 13-20 about tied for second coldest signal.
  14. GaWx
    Tony/all, The prior Euro Weeklies run's March 13-20 had had the strongest cold signal for the E US for any week in March of 2023 yet. And now the brand new one for that week (see image below) has a significantly stronger cold signal than even that one. In addition, the subsequent week (March 20-27) on this new run has a much stronger cold signal than the prior run had for that week and about as strong a signal as the prior run's March 13-20. So, this is an impressively strong cold signal for the E US overall on today's Euro weeklies for 3/13-27! The major SSW and the upcoming new very notable strat weakening are looking to do their thing apparently! This new strat weakening is projected to bring 60N 10 mb winds all the way down to near -17 m/s on Feb 28th! The major SSW, though quite impressive in its own right, brought those winds down "only" down to -13 m/s (on Feb 18th). The latest extended GEFS largely agrees. So, the Feb that we've missed out on may actually finally arrive here in March! Tony, sleet could still be in your near future for all anyone knows! I'll go even further. No single week in any of Jan, Feb, or March of 2023 on any Weeklies run back to Jan 5th (14 runs excluding today's) has had as strong a cold signal (vs normal of course) for the E US as today's for March 13-20 with today's run for March 20-27 and last week's for March 13-20 about tied for second coldest signal.
  15. GaWx
    Don/Folks, The prior run's March 13-20 had had the strongest cold signal for the E US for any week in March of 2023 yet. And now this one that you just posted has a significantly stronger cold signal than that one. In addition, the subsequent week (March 20-27) on this new run has a much stronger cold signal than the prior run had for that week and about as strong a signal as the prior run's March 13-20. So, this is an impressively strong cold signal for the E US overall on the latest Euro weeklies for 3/13-27! The major SSW and the upcoming new very notable weakening are doing their thing apparently! This new strat weakening is projected to bring 60N 10 mb winds all the way to near -17 m/s on Feb 28th! The major SSW, though quite impressive in its own right, brought those winds down only to -13 m/s (on Feb 18th). *Edited to clarify that I'm talking about strongest cold signal for any week in March of 2023
  16. GaWx
    Piggybacking off of my reply to Don's question that I focused on Athens, GA, for my answer: This Weathermodels map has Athens at ~1/2 C BN or ~1 F BN as of 7 PM on March 9th. The TT EPS mean map had Athens at ~55 F then. It says on your map that Weathermodels uses 20 years for climate. Now consider this for Athens using this great site: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/athens/KAHN/date/1981-3-9 2001-2020 avg for 7PM: 59 F 2003-2022 avg for 7PM: 59 F So, 55 F - 59 F = -4 F. Thus, for Athens as a representative for the SE, the anomaly on their map of ~-1 F should have been more like -4 F if we assume they're using either 2001-2020 or 2003-2022 for climo.
  17. GaWx
    Don, I earlier ITT said I was concerned about WxBell anomalies often having too large extremes and thus not trusting their anomaly maps. However, I decided to try to answer your question based on an objective analysis: 1. I decided to focus on Athens, GA, because you're focusing on the SE, the 360 hour forecast map I posted below shows them at ~55 F at 7 PM EST on 3/9/23, there's a large discrepancy there in the anomalies between WxBell and TT, and there's easy to find history for Athens. 2. WxBell (using 1991-2020 as a base) has them 4 F BN, implying a 59 F norm for 7 PM on March 9th for the period 1991-2020. 3. Tidbits (using 1981-2010 as a base) has them ~1.75 C AN or ~3 F AN, implying a 52 F norm for 7 PM on March 9th for the period 1981-2010. 4. So, I next needed to find Athens' average 7 PM March 9th temperature for both 1991-2020 and 1981-2010. 5. I found a great site with hourlies for any date going back to 1981. This link is for 3/9/1981. Just click on 7 PM on the top chart and then change the year to get the same for 1982-2020: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/athens/KAHN/date/1981-3-9 6. Based on the data from this site, the 1991-2020 avg for 7PM on March 9th at Athens is 57 F. WxBell implied it was up at 59. Thus, WxBell's Athens normal for 7PM that day is 2 F too warm, which means that WxBell's 4 F BN should have instead been 2 F BN. 7. Based on the data from this site, the 1981-2010 avg for 7PM on March 9th at Athens is 56 F. TT implied it was only 52. Thus, TT's Athens normal for 7 PM that day is 4 F too cold, which means that TT's 3 F AN should have instead been 1 F BN or ~0.5 C BN. 8. Conclusion: The 7 F discrepancy between the WxBell and TT maps regarding the 7 PM March 9th normal at Athens (as representation for the SE) was due to a combination of them using different base periods (1 F), WxBell using a normal that is 2 F too warm, and TT using a normal that is 4 F too cold. So, although all three are factors, TT (4 F) was surprisingly the biggest factor rather than WxBell (2 F) or the different base periods (1 F). Without doing this, I would have guessed that WxBell was the biggest factor based on my prior impression about them. ---------------------------- This 0Z 2/23/23 run's 360 hour EPS mean map has Athens at ~55 F:
  18. GaWx
    That's not a problem for RDU. They had 83 F on 2/3/1989 followed by 11.1" from two storms later that month along with light accumulations in both March and April.
  19. GaWx
    Maybe I know my posts related to the stratosphere seem endless. I empathize. But keep in mind that we won't be two weeks past the only major SSW of this winter to date until about 240 hours from now. Only around then will we finally be at the "put up or shut up" time. I always thought it would be mild at least until either the last few days of Feb or first week of March (with regard to the major SSW). And we do have a real live strong -NAO on the model consensus starting within a week. So, I'm anxious to see what happens.
  20. GaWx
    Fwiw since it is an operational run at 240, the end of the 12Z Euro has an NAO that is probably bordering on a -2 (March 4th). They don't get that much stronger than that. This would be consistent with the typical timing of blocking setting up after a major SSW as that is at the 2 week point. Thus, this solution isn't as far fetched as it may seem.
  21. GaWx
    Don, Part of the discrepancy may be due to the first map being based just on today's 6Z run, alone. Although I don't trust the WxBell algorithms used to produce that first map (I believe their extremes are often overdone), I'm guessing it was a cold run. In contrast, it looks like the maps at the bottom are based on an average of runs from 6Z 2/19 through 0Z 2/22. Note the "initial conditions". Am I looking at this correctly? Regardless, I'm no JB fan due to his mainly cold biases, which I think are partially due to having energy clients. Reading between the lines, he often seems to want natural gas prices to rise.
  22. GaWx
    Keep in mind that just 5 days ago, the GEFS mean based NAO forecast had it drop only to zero Feb 26th-Mar 2nd. Today's has it drop way down to a strong -NAO (-1) on Mar 2nd. What will the ensemble mean maps have on them five days from now for the E US and other areas for early March? The point is that this is an extra difficult situation (recent major SSW and another major 60N 10 mb wind drop way down into negative territory projected Feb 26-28) for models that have already been performing poorly this winter even without these big strat changes. We shouldn't assume that they have much of a clue about what's going to happen ten days from now, much less two weeks out.
  23. GaWx
    I know it is way out there in fantasyland (11-14 days) on an operational model and thus is for entertainment only and will understandably make some laugh. But for the record: if the 18Z were to somehow happen to have the right idea, the mountains would be hammered by upslope snow on and off during March 4th-7th. Regardless of the atrocious nature of the models this winter as well as the mildness of this winter to date overall, we still are the better part of a week away from when the recent major SSW can possibly first affect the tropospheric pattern. That SSW combined with an additional strong 60N 10 mb wind reversal progged for a week from now make things much more unpredictable than normal on Feb 21st when looking ahead to March. This is especially the case when considering the insistence of the models on a strong -NAO, which is very likely being caused by the SSW. Keep in mind that just five days ago, the GEFS mean had had the +NAO fall only to neutral in very late Feb/early March vs solidly negative on today's run. A lot has changed and still can change from what current runs, including ens means, are showing. Edit: It is the Happy Hour run. So, the GFS could just be drunk.
  24. GaWx
    This really should be in the March thread, but since that thread doesn't exist yet: Check this out about the major SSW and how the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS are now clearly suggesting that the E US will be significantly affected especially on and after March 10th: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming-main-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-forecast-fa/
  25. GaWx
    Check this out about the major SSW and how the Euro Weeklies and extended GEFS are now clearly forecasting that the E US will be strongly affected especially on and after March 10th: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-sudden-stratospheric-warming-main-weather-impacts-united-states-canada-europe-forecast-fa/
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